2014 World Cup Tournament Predictions: wc-20140614-000045.csv

FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub

32 rows sorted by win_group

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Suggested facets: group

Link rowid country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group ▼ sixteen quarter semi cup win
12 Croatia CRO a 76.13 1.7849 0.9129 0.0016 0.3714 0.121862190073512 0.04968727437262099 0.015845231368468 0.002750102491457
9 Cameroon CMR a 71.33 1.4802 0.9908 0.0017 0.0406 0.010596202167916999 0.0035742405721959996 0.000910329009373 0.00012562468710100003
3 Australia AUS b 69.47 1.6380000000000001 1.232 0.0023 0.028 0.002338868676836 0.000696787252544 0.000154974779931 2.5537700390999998e-05
25 Mexico MEX a 76.93 1.5518 0.6892 0.028 0.59 0.196952471182887 0.081478640478858 0.026443476878122003 0.004760306451994
21 Iran IRN f 70.63 1.2971 0.8882 0.0326 0.1882 0.056197564212007 0.015170953218345 0.002458131496099 0.000454441704566
20 Honduras HON e 69.6 1.5609 1.162 0.0528 0.1834 0.044428920362229 0.013085771557331998 0.0030408298757449996 0.00042695315464199993
15 Spain ESP b 89.13 2.6874 0.4467 0.0533 0.3007 0.10634623482858502 0.071885700849707 0.042343640888002 0.021500871731755
1 Algeria ALG h 63.41 1.1202 1.1642 0.0555 0.1963 0.036780895058992 0.007677398475572 0.001020113499434 0.00013144804098
27 Nigeria NGA f 75.23 1.6678 0.8866 0.0691 0.322 0.119321429185419 0.039854579736677005 0.008519420090973 0.001937669604364
32 USA USA g 77.42 2.0473 1.0141 0.0866 0.3269 0.162275407919881 0.056014409520873 0.018396493869439 0.0038802417637880003
18 Ghana GHA g 77.22 1.9080000000000001 0.9282 0.0891 0.316 0.154879091349284 0.053243113856098 0.016926270765173997 0.0035363512405390003
11 Costa Rica CRC d 74.07 1.3226 0.6996 0.0925 0.2607 0.10017206087343199 0.020040613788268997 0.005826035625585 0.001168511637762
23 Japan JPN c 73.48 2.1293 1.3485 0.1038 0.2969 0.105639052954327 0.026131519907867 0.0072477901368630014 0.0011678909139849999
19 Greece GRE c 76.79 1.3365 0.5396 0.1405 0.3794 0.152016582287465 0.04258368200169899 0.013610225572133998 0.002738313387584
24 South Korea KOR h 72.41 1.69 1.0862 0.1476 0.3929 0.105255659759807 0.029588234023322002 0.005945628396935001 0.001057480534099
28 Portugal POR g 81.0 2.1386 0.8161 0.1537 0.4738 0.26562110779519604 0.109082064634083 0.040302365931124996 0.010616242495646999
5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.32 2.3119 0.9862 0.1618 0.5669 0.264722097149243 0.113653245827749 0.033675278504947996 0.009753098661943
30 Switzerland SUI e 78.09 1.9841 0.9216 0.1706 0.4469 0.162104748954499 0.065299971798067 0.020219380708881 0.004703574874326999
22 Italy ITA d 79.51 1.9842 0.8202 0.2015 0.4534 0.21554434246240803 0.06161569195457799 0.022943496243145 0.005853805835686
8 Ivory Coast CIV c 78.89 2.2468 1.0484 0.2329 0.5399 0.24867867370592697 0.07667286946482099 0.02827593444071 0.006874377277919
13 Ecuador ECU e 80.64 2.0295 0.7689 0.2397 0.5682 0.233393776579798 0.103303005295502 0.034923921157472 0.009487086308756
29 Russia RUS h 79.01 1.6554 0.6238 0.3087 0.6375 0.237601289698803 0.08724291108029401 0.026150311870358 0.006295593081855
14 England ENG d 83.2 2.2051 0.6890000000000001 0.3368 0.6331 0.35087743932471405 0.12957440684931698 0.05702526413734999 0.017499015554612
31 Uruguay URU d 83.33 2.2379 0.6999 0.3692 0.6528 0.367643661397344 0.14193632977935902 0.063691008853354 0.019776043096311
7 Chile CHI b 86.71 2.7085 0.7041 0.4074 0.7718 0.370268312556236 0.23456969088361398 0.125596359801523 0.04768594682653201
4 Belgium BEL h 82.0 2.1387 0.7397 0.4882 0.7733 0.35299288474018603 0.14909657332426998 0.058471171125942 0.016270857229176
10 Colombia COL c 85.82 2.1806 0.4532 0.5228 0.7838 0.45942818699434995 0.157618202940715 0.077098888107021 0.030056348724907003
16 France FRA e 86.13 2.4862 0.6189 0.5369 0.8015 0.45503501488063397 0.24601385315582602 0.094090614642979 0.039565907075767
26 Netherlands NED b 82.5 2.3138 0.8173 0.537 0.8995 0.38210964869871206 0.201910872679034 0.08723150729344399 0.024459262071407
17 Germany GER g 88.88 3.194 0.7751 0.6706 0.8833 0.684593663677859 0.448062149938048 0.201017254250532 0.11193590366594901
2 Argentina ARG f 90.0 2.8542 0.4498 0.7365 0.9229 0.664796448676131 0.46361176455793607 0.29414578608573905 0.134268940764052
6 Brazil BRA a 91.64 3.3933 0.5589999999999999 0.9687 0.998 0.809526071815375 0.700023476224802 0.566452864593203 0.4592362514101479

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140614-000045" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
);
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