2014 World Cup Tournament Predictions: wc-20140615-092237.csv

FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub

32 rows sorted by cup

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Link rowid country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi cup ▼ win
3 Australia AUS b 69.04 1.6546 1.2727 0.0017 0.0177 0.001560015567208 0.00044555729625 9.442877242899998e-05 1.4426893534999999e-05
9 Cameroon CMR a 70.05 1.3531 0.9672 0.0004 0.0332 0.006599711876393 0.002218210582229 0.000532340428649 6.9930565999e-05
1 Algeria ALG h 63.36 1.1191 1.1659 0.0572 0.2011 0.037598887698821 0.007784490409785999 0.000960294827678 0.000123459942526
21 Iran IRN f 70.6 1.2971 0.8897 0.0354 0.1876 0.056641734644481 0.015335831471601002 0.0024283902918140004 0.000439025782836
23 Japan JPN c 73.13 2.0751 1.3309 0.0099 0.0963 0.037719111035920995 0.009878204043086 0.0027309557474140002 0.0003992761189
20 Honduras HON e 70.01 1.5756 1.1482 0.0569 0.2008 0.050004520629352005 0.014818548717964999 0.00325954901246 0.0004728751074049999
19 Greece GRE c 74.29 1.2891 0.6597 0.0094 0.1444 0.059057246276846 0.016811992435881 0.004857049294712 0.000790324885123
24 South Korea KOR h 72.42 1.6883 1.0835 0.1424 0.3826 0.10176215345634 0.028752256611970003 0.005493943192592 0.000975369363159
27 Nigeria NGA f 75.07 1.6598 0.8902 0.0669 0.3175 0.117477667814105 0.038906196350013 0.007872757571403 0.0017795570579870002
31 Uruguay URU d 80.89 2.194 0.8617 0.0584 0.2102 0.092446791578924 0.023835586304788 0.009683208319223 0.0029918546363529998
12 Croatia CRO a 76.22 1.8052 0.9215 0.0023 0.3793 0.10332316987628098 0.044303794964945 0.014100768085761002 0.002512051495659
18 Ghana GHA g 77.38 1.9044 0.9135 0.0885 0.309 0.15157085339128398 0.052530446274753 0.015891783497206 0.0033936872715479996
14 England ENG d 82.21 2.1617 0.7381 0.0842 0.3228 0.146428377897102 0.039162217538004994 0.016599455534634 0.005442438036592999
32 USA USA g 77.76 2.0627 1.0004 0.0956 0.344 0.17253668031370997 0.060609978267342005 0.018850200021257 0.004143272686408
30 Switzerland SUI e 78.03 1.9791 0.9216 0.1777 0.447 0.16489121563891598 0.06590376802396701 0.019197644045427 0.004517527374769
15 Spain ESP b 86.78 2.6112 0.6368 0.0292 0.2508 0.06869215611347 0.040860525023039 0.021744159198932998 0.00989038578156
29 Russia RUS h 78.98 1.6544 0.625 0.3045 0.6309 0.23599983764316 0.08709352304857401 0.024834288698619 0.006021521670104999
25 Mexico MEX a 77.77 1.5407 0.6249 0.0284 0.589 0.17045524159063902 0.075206381812192 0.025327771144111 0.00483322686652
11 Costa Rica CRC d 77.48 1.5852 0.6767 0.4091 0.7195 0.285536903230013 0.07668646017675701 0.025785679861343 0.005532621481122
5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.23 2.3098 0.9905 0.1642 0.574 0.26874938737868 0.11489636984965598 0.032989749806058 0.009481814336274999
13 Ecuador ECU e 80.8 2.0274 0.7549 0.2373 0.5623 0.23278266966407501 0.102791764052184 0.033818892565162996 0.009312020053874
28 Portugal POR g 80.99 2.1415 0.8184 0.1532 0.4728 0.26487895338844797 0.10898007526266901 0.038585438278017 0.010276208887469999
22 Italy ITA d 80.14 2.036 0.8097 0.4483 0.7475 0.336809322559795 0.105950694724692 0.040365076028128 0.01003918854591
8 Ivory Coast CIV c 79.17 2.2141 1.0043 0.2227 0.7952 0.40187789688358294 0.128634848220148 0.047935824675925 0.01124409321598
4 Belgium BEL h 82.06 2.1405 0.7355 0.4959 0.7854 0.358667740662492 0.15220467083810502 0.057301179712534005 0.016179237405706003
16 France FRA e 86.13 2.4866 0.6193 0.5281 0.7899 0.446932662591163 0.24342446606215898 0.09138530726871401 0.038308154906802
7 Chile CHI b 86.79 2.7203 0.7033 0.3026 0.773 0.32030270835874497 0.202418176241842 0.108908494097964 0.043698544435827005
10 Colombia COL c 87.69 2.3949 0.4158 0.758 0.9641 0.6401243505377929 0.21932865840503898 0.118595774707873 0.054966349323482
26 Netherlands NED b 86.92 2.8119 0.747 0.6665 0.9585 0.538273947480935 0.351766532060416 0.19151731108817605 0.071686046907022
17 Germany GER g 88.87 3.1972 0.7786 0.6627 0.8742 0.676984893445781 0.444575332121496 0.19921788270509197 0.10978204662426598
2 Argentina ARG f 90.0 2.8521 0.4498 0.7335 0.9209 0.662520141639225 0.461392282637745 0.283216416982212 0.130879647357264
6 Brazil BRA a 91.63 3.3847 0.5572 0.9689 0.9985 0.7907930491363491 0.6624921601707099 0.535917984538475 0.429803814982014

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140615-092237" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
);
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