2014 World Cup Tournament Predictions: wc-20140615-092237.csv

FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub

32 rows sorted by spi_offense

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Link rowid country country_id group spi spi_offense ▼ spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win
1 Algeria ALG h 63.36 1.1191 1.1659 0.0572 0.2011 0.037598887698821 0.007784490409785999 0.000960294827678 0.000123459942526
19 Greece GRE c 74.29 1.2891 0.6597 0.0094 0.1444 0.059057246276846 0.016811992435881 0.004857049294712 0.000790324885123
21 Iran IRN f 70.6 1.2971 0.8897 0.0354 0.1876 0.056641734644481 0.015335831471601002 0.0024283902918140004 0.000439025782836
9 Cameroon CMR a 70.05 1.3531 0.9672 0.0004 0.0332 0.006599711876393 0.002218210582229 0.000532340428649 6.9930565999e-05
25 Mexico MEX a 77.77 1.5407 0.6249 0.0284 0.589 0.17045524159063902 0.075206381812192 0.025327771144111 0.00483322686652
20 Honduras HON e 70.01 1.5756 1.1482 0.0569 0.2008 0.050004520629352005 0.014818548717964999 0.00325954901246 0.0004728751074049999
11 Costa Rica CRC d 77.48 1.5852 0.6767 0.4091 0.7195 0.285536903230013 0.07668646017675701 0.025785679861343 0.005532621481122
29 Russia RUS h 78.98 1.6544 0.625 0.3045 0.6309 0.23599983764316 0.08709352304857401 0.024834288698619 0.006021521670104999
3 Australia AUS b 69.04 1.6546 1.2727 0.0017 0.0177 0.001560015567208 0.00044555729625 9.442877242899998e-05 1.4426893534999999e-05
27 Nigeria NGA f 75.07 1.6598 0.8902 0.0669 0.3175 0.117477667814105 0.038906196350013 0.007872757571403 0.0017795570579870002
24 South Korea KOR h 72.42 1.6883 1.0835 0.1424 0.3826 0.10176215345634 0.028752256611970003 0.005493943192592 0.000975369363159
12 Croatia CRO a 76.22 1.8052 0.9215 0.0023 0.3793 0.10332316987628098 0.044303794964945 0.014100768085761002 0.002512051495659
18 Ghana GHA g 77.38 1.9044 0.9135 0.0885 0.309 0.15157085339128398 0.052530446274753 0.015891783497206 0.0033936872715479996
30 Switzerland SUI e 78.03 1.9791 0.9216 0.1777 0.447 0.16489121563891598 0.06590376802396701 0.019197644045427 0.004517527374769
13 Ecuador ECU e 80.8 2.0274 0.7549 0.2373 0.5623 0.23278266966407501 0.102791764052184 0.033818892565162996 0.009312020053874
22 Italy ITA d 80.14 2.036 0.8097 0.4483 0.7475 0.336809322559795 0.105950694724692 0.040365076028128 0.01003918854591
32 USA USA g 77.76 2.0627 1.0004 0.0956 0.344 0.17253668031370997 0.060609978267342005 0.018850200021257 0.004143272686408
23 Japan JPN c 73.13 2.0751 1.3309 0.0099 0.0963 0.037719111035920995 0.009878204043086 0.0027309557474140002 0.0003992761189
4 Belgium BEL h 82.06 2.1405 0.7355 0.4959 0.7854 0.358667740662492 0.15220467083810502 0.057301179712534005 0.016179237405706003
28 Portugal POR g 80.99 2.1415 0.8184 0.1532 0.4728 0.26487895338844797 0.10898007526266901 0.038585438278017 0.010276208887469999
14 England ENG d 82.21 2.1617 0.7381 0.0842 0.3228 0.146428377897102 0.039162217538004994 0.016599455534634 0.005442438036592999
31 Uruguay URU d 80.89 2.194 0.8617 0.0584 0.2102 0.092446791578924 0.023835586304788 0.009683208319223 0.0029918546363529998
8 Ivory Coast CIV c 79.17 2.2141 1.0043 0.2227 0.7952 0.40187789688358294 0.128634848220148 0.047935824675925 0.01124409321598
5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.23 2.3098 0.9905 0.1642 0.574 0.26874938737868 0.11489636984965598 0.032989749806058 0.009481814336274999
10 Colombia COL c 87.69 2.3949 0.4158 0.758 0.9641 0.6401243505377929 0.21932865840503898 0.118595774707873 0.054966349323482
16 France FRA e 86.13 2.4866 0.6193 0.5281 0.7899 0.446932662591163 0.24342446606215898 0.09138530726871401 0.038308154906802
15 Spain ESP b 86.78 2.6112 0.6368 0.0292 0.2508 0.06869215611347 0.040860525023039 0.021744159198932998 0.00989038578156
7 Chile CHI b 86.79 2.7203 0.7033 0.3026 0.773 0.32030270835874497 0.202418176241842 0.108908494097964 0.043698544435827005
26 Netherlands NED b 86.92 2.8119 0.747 0.6665 0.9585 0.538273947480935 0.351766532060416 0.19151731108817605 0.071686046907022
2 Argentina ARG f 90.0 2.8521 0.4498 0.7335 0.9209 0.662520141639225 0.461392282637745 0.283216416982212 0.130879647357264
17 Germany GER g 88.87 3.1972 0.7786 0.6627 0.8742 0.676984893445781 0.444575332121496 0.19921788270509197 0.10978204662426598
6 Brazil BRA a 91.63 3.3847 0.5572 0.9689 0.9985 0.7907930491363491 0.6624921601707099 0.535917984538475 0.429803814982014

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140615-092237" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
);
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