2014 World Cup Tournament Predictions: wc-20140622-091255.csv

FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub

32 rows sorted by semi

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Suggested facets: group, win_group, sixteen, quarter, semi, cup, win

Link rowid country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi ▼ cup win
3 Australia AUS b 70.31 1.7889 1.3002 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 79.44 2.199 0.9753 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9 Cameroon CMR a 69.29 1.4838 1.1217 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14 England ENG d 81.41 2.1295 0.7794 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15 Spain ESP b 85.74 2.4827 0.6531 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
20 Honduras HON e 68.3 1.5104 1.2044 0.0 0.0194 0.003377192781918 0.001011737811057 0.00026324593426800004 3.291729391199999e-05
23 Japan JPN c 73.36 1.97 1.2383 0.0 0.0382 0.015726924522942 0.004248267155743 0.001151440675256 0.00018060530004400003
1 Algeria ALG h 64.24 1.1759 1.1673 0.0216 0.16 0.026948096360467997 0.0049553346483929995 0.000622437095689 9.170127026299999e-05
21 Iran IRN f 71.13 1.1454 0.7389 0.0 0.1224 0.023829166636012998 0.006160991193304001 0.000869161380262 0.0001955722733
18 Ghana GHA g 77.45 1.9154 0.9179999999999999 0.0 0.1529 0.07064955765565101 0.022542526894455003 0.008414722897007 0.001742811910816
19 Greece GRE c 74.14 1.1789 0.5861 0.0 0.2097 0.08878340402334699 0.025194997958954 0.007161940099923999 0.0012331809403839998
24 South Korea KOR h 72.56 1.6908 1.0781 0.1276 0.4052 0.10290788866619802 0.025799718393131 0.005312776482636 0.0009944382642680001
28 Portugal POR g 78.95 2.077 0.9259999999999999 0.0318 0.2226 0.112668489481634 0.039413594455236 0.014722561161588002 0.0035204551769109998
31 Uruguay URU d 81.49 2.2409 0.8485 0.056 0.4044 0.16401965946839497 0.04251430771135299 0.016651526828724 0.005860669555407
22 Italy ITA d 79.23 1.9415 0.8109 0.0563 0.5956 0.20531199507778802 0.043050042150643 0.014542864831556002 0.004530784222928999
13 Ecuador ECU e 79.96 1.9882 0.7909999999999999 0.0038 0.3737 0.116422819050223 0.054323093436618 0.02240556532423 0.005457063533308
29 Russia RUS h 78.29 1.6109 0.6422 0.2038 0.567 0.19200798549103898 0.062793390814563 0.017461754792606 0.004445271424003
12 Croatia CRO a 79.49 2.0251 0.8508 0.0399 0.3903 0.12611717848929999 0.06326071921773001 0.023146241794 0.0053757790403570005
30 Switzerland SUI e 78.26 2.1701 1.0416 0.0003 0.6069 0.17231067626810503 0.07697713593991 0.030239420876718 0.006709168671236
27 Nigeria NGA f 76.01 1.5294 0.7335 0.1152 0.8776 0.242838874951047 0.08070085426083501 0.018162918990107 0.004473260676872
25 Mexico MEX a 78.43 1.4776 0.5368 0.0469 0.617 0.18323695767892997 0.08641199438745098 0.02924380262186 0.006205733813293
32 USA USA g 78.67 2.1221 0.9784 0.2199 0.6475 0.33280862476661405 0.11531878717481801 0.038024248323018 0.009384612828284001
8 Ivory Coast CIV c 79.49 2.2641 1.0166 0.0144 0.7521 0.400218204548308 0.14893963530499899 0.056121638270891 0.013536842104447
11 Costa Rica CRC d 78.52 1.5889 0.6109 0.8877 1.0 0.467758586220153 0.15554419856071697 0.05370825623781599 0.011976164952528998
4 Belgium BEL h 81.79 2.1428 0.759 0.647 0.8678 0.40388687471539 0.15884973943697697 0.06528016605017 0.018559904806788003
10 Colombia COL c 87.48 2.4192 0.4511 0.9856 1.0 0.6581812261391851 0.214190688291034 0.10763457203355803 0.054708848533477995
7 Chile CHI b 87.77 2.7354 0.6178 0.4017 1.0 0.446458409235807 0.293160841710755 0.160514738412286 0.07159147840317301
26 Netherlands NED b 86.19 2.7961 0.8076 0.5983 1.0 0.49485049018069 0.320485301099972 0.166127796364639 0.064481701288183
16 France FRA e 87.81 2.7464 0.6204 0.9959 1.0 0.720049627880766 0.403909533156877 0.15670496181220497 0.08372175169469
17 Germany GER g 88.69 3.1804 0.7879 0.7483 0.977 0.758122482863046 0.451895103922509 0.215996840687853 0.12001307128391901
2 Argentina ARG f 89.66 2.7413 0.4218 0.8848 1.0 0.7211716424319521 0.49534845846131 0.31067115563165304 0.14378945640542098
6 Brazil BRA a 91.07 3.1860000000000004 0.5158 0.9132 0.9927 0.7493369644151979 0.6029990064505749 0.458843244389478 0.35718675433178904

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140622-091255" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
);
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