2014 World Cup Tournament Predictions: wc-20140622-091255.csv

FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub

32 rows sorted by spi_offense

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Suggested facets: group, win_group, sixteen, quarter, semi, cup, win

Link rowid country country_id group spi spi_offense ▼ spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win
21 Iran IRN f 71.13 1.1454 0.7389 0.0 0.1224 0.023829166636012998 0.006160991193304001 0.000869161380262 0.0001955722733
1 Algeria ALG h 64.24 1.1759 1.1673 0.0216 0.16 0.026948096360467997 0.0049553346483929995 0.000622437095689 9.170127026299999e-05
19 Greece GRE c 74.14 1.1789 0.5861 0.0 0.2097 0.08878340402334699 0.025194997958954 0.007161940099923999 0.0012331809403839998
25 Mexico MEX a 78.43 1.4776 0.5368 0.0469 0.617 0.18323695767892997 0.08641199438745098 0.02924380262186 0.006205733813293
9 Cameroon CMR a 69.29 1.4838 1.1217 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
20 Honduras HON e 68.3 1.5104 1.2044 0.0 0.0194 0.003377192781918 0.001011737811057 0.00026324593426800004 3.291729391199999e-05
27 Nigeria NGA f 76.01 1.5294 0.7335 0.1152 0.8776 0.242838874951047 0.08070085426083501 0.018162918990107 0.004473260676872
11 Costa Rica CRC d 78.52 1.5889 0.6109 0.8877 1.0 0.467758586220153 0.15554419856071697 0.05370825623781599 0.011976164952528998
29 Russia RUS h 78.29 1.6109 0.6422 0.2038 0.567 0.19200798549103898 0.062793390814563 0.017461754792606 0.004445271424003
24 South Korea KOR h 72.56 1.6908 1.0781 0.1276 0.4052 0.10290788866619802 0.025799718393131 0.005312776482636 0.0009944382642680001
3 Australia AUS b 70.31 1.7889 1.3002 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
18 Ghana GHA g 77.45 1.9154 0.9179999999999999 0.0 0.1529 0.07064955765565101 0.022542526894455003 0.008414722897007 0.001742811910816
22 Italy ITA d 79.23 1.9415 0.8109 0.0563 0.5956 0.20531199507778802 0.043050042150643 0.014542864831556002 0.004530784222928999
23 Japan JPN c 73.36 1.97 1.2383 0.0 0.0382 0.015726924522942 0.004248267155743 0.001151440675256 0.00018060530004400003
13 Ecuador ECU e 79.96 1.9882 0.7909999999999999 0.0038 0.3737 0.116422819050223 0.054323093436618 0.02240556532423 0.005457063533308
12 Croatia CRO a 79.49 2.0251 0.8508 0.0399 0.3903 0.12611717848929999 0.06326071921773001 0.023146241794 0.0053757790403570005
28 Portugal POR g 78.95 2.077 0.9259999999999999 0.0318 0.2226 0.112668489481634 0.039413594455236 0.014722561161588002 0.0035204551769109998
32 USA USA g 78.67 2.1221 0.9784 0.2199 0.6475 0.33280862476661405 0.11531878717481801 0.038024248323018 0.009384612828284001
14 England ENG d 81.41 2.1295 0.7794 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Belgium BEL h 81.79 2.1428 0.759 0.647 0.8678 0.40388687471539 0.15884973943697697 0.06528016605017 0.018559904806788003
30 Switzerland SUI e 78.26 2.1701 1.0416 0.0003 0.6069 0.17231067626810503 0.07697713593991 0.030239420876718 0.006709168671236
5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 79.44 2.199 0.9753 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
31 Uruguay URU d 81.49 2.2409 0.8485 0.056 0.4044 0.16401965946839497 0.04251430771135299 0.016651526828724 0.005860669555407
8 Ivory Coast CIV c 79.49 2.2641 1.0166 0.0144 0.7521 0.400218204548308 0.14893963530499899 0.056121638270891 0.013536842104447
10 Colombia COL c 87.48 2.4192 0.4511 0.9856 1.0 0.6581812261391851 0.214190688291034 0.10763457203355803 0.054708848533477995
15 Spain ESP b 85.74 2.4827 0.6531 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7 Chile CHI b 87.77 2.7354 0.6178 0.4017 1.0 0.446458409235807 0.293160841710755 0.160514738412286 0.07159147840317301
2 Argentina ARG f 89.66 2.7413 0.4218 0.8848 1.0 0.7211716424319521 0.49534845846131 0.31067115563165304 0.14378945640542098
16 France FRA e 87.81 2.7464 0.6204 0.9959 1.0 0.720049627880766 0.403909533156877 0.15670496181220497 0.08372175169469
26 Netherlands NED b 86.19 2.7961 0.8076 0.5983 1.0 0.49485049018069 0.320485301099972 0.166127796364639 0.064481701288183
17 Germany GER g 88.69 3.1804 0.7879 0.7483 0.977 0.758122482863046 0.451895103922509 0.215996840687853 0.12001307128391901
6 Brazil BRA a 91.07 3.1860000000000004 0.5158 0.9132 0.9927 0.7493369644151979 0.6029990064505749 0.458843244389478 0.35718675433178904

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140622-091255" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
);
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