2014 World Cup Tournament Predictions: wc-20140622-091255.csv

FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub

32 rows sorted by win_group

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Suggested facets: group, win_group, sixteen, quarter, semi, cup, win

Link rowid country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group ▼ sixteen quarter semi cup win
3 Australia AUS b 70.31 1.7889 1.3002 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 79.44 2.199 0.9753 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9 Cameroon CMR a 69.29 1.4838 1.1217 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14 England ENG d 81.41 2.1295 0.7794 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15 Spain ESP b 85.74 2.4827 0.6531 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
18 Ghana GHA g 77.45 1.9154 0.9179999999999999 0.0 0.1529 0.07064955765565101 0.022542526894455003 0.008414722897007 0.001742811910816
19 Greece GRE c 74.14 1.1789 0.5861 0.0 0.2097 0.08878340402334699 0.025194997958954 0.007161940099923999 0.0012331809403839998
20 Honduras HON e 68.3 1.5104 1.2044 0.0 0.0194 0.003377192781918 0.001011737811057 0.00026324593426800004 3.291729391199999e-05
21 Iran IRN f 71.13 1.1454 0.7389 0.0 0.1224 0.023829166636012998 0.006160991193304001 0.000869161380262 0.0001955722733
23 Japan JPN c 73.36 1.97 1.2383 0.0 0.0382 0.015726924522942 0.004248267155743 0.001151440675256 0.00018060530004400003
30 Switzerland SUI e 78.26 2.1701 1.0416 0.0003 0.6069 0.17231067626810503 0.07697713593991 0.030239420876718 0.006709168671236
13 Ecuador ECU e 79.96 1.9882 0.7909999999999999 0.0038 0.3737 0.116422819050223 0.054323093436618 0.02240556532423 0.005457063533308
8 Ivory Coast CIV c 79.49 2.2641 1.0166 0.0144 0.7521 0.400218204548308 0.14893963530499899 0.056121638270891 0.013536842104447
1 Algeria ALG h 64.24 1.1759 1.1673 0.0216 0.16 0.026948096360467997 0.0049553346483929995 0.000622437095689 9.170127026299999e-05
28 Portugal POR g 78.95 2.077 0.9259999999999999 0.0318 0.2226 0.112668489481634 0.039413594455236 0.014722561161588002 0.0035204551769109998
12 Croatia CRO a 79.49 2.0251 0.8508 0.0399 0.3903 0.12611717848929999 0.06326071921773001 0.023146241794 0.0053757790403570005
25 Mexico MEX a 78.43 1.4776 0.5368 0.0469 0.617 0.18323695767892997 0.08641199438745098 0.02924380262186 0.006205733813293
31 Uruguay URU d 81.49 2.2409 0.8485 0.056 0.4044 0.16401965946839497 0.04251430771135299 0.016651526828724 0.005860669555407
22 Italy ITA d 79.23 1.9415 0.8109 0.0563 0.5956 0.20531199507778802 0.043050042150643 0.014542864831556002 0.004530784222928999
27 Nigeria NGA f 76.01 1.5294 0.7335 0.1152 0.8776 0.242838874951047 0.08070085426083501 0.018162918990107 0.004473260676872
24 South Korea KOR h 72.56 1.6908 1.0781 0.1276 0.4052 0.10290788866619802 0.025799718393131 0.005312776482636 0.0009944382642680001
29 Russia RUS h 78.29 1.6109 0.6422 0.2038 0.567 0.19200798549103898 0.062793390814563 0.017461754792606 0.004445271424003
32 USA USA g 78.67 2.1221 0.9784 0.2199 0.6475 0.33280862476661405 0.11531878717481801 0.038024248323018 0.009384612828284001
7 Chile CHI b 87.77 2.7354 0.6178 0.4017 1.0 0.446458409235807 0.293160841710755 0.160514738412286 0.07159147840317301
26 Netherlands NED b 86.19 2.7961 0.8076 0.5983 1.0 0.49485049018069 0.320485301099972 0.166127796364639 0.064481701288183
4 Belgium BEL h 81.79 2.1428 0.759 0.647 0.8678 0.40388687471539 0.15884973943697697 0.06528016605017 0.018559904806788003
17 Germany GER g 88.69 3.1804 0.7879 0.7483 0.977 0.758122482863046 0.451895103922509 0.215996840687853 0.12001307128391901
2 Argentina ARG f 89.66 2.7413 0.4218 0.8848 1.0 0.7211716424319521 0.49534845846131 0.31067115563165304 0.14378945640542098
11 Costa Rica CRC d 78.52 1.5889 0.6109 0.8877 1.0 0.467758586220153 0.15554419856071697 0.05370825623781599 0.011976164952528998
6 Brazil BRA a 91.07 3.1860000000000004 0.5158 0.9132 0.9927 0.7493369644151979 0.6029990064505749 0.458843244389478 0.35718675433178904
10 Colombia COL c 87.48 2.4192 0.4511 0.9856 1.0 0.6581812261391851 0.214190688291034 0.10763457203355803 0.054708848533477995
16 France FRA e 87.81 2.7464 0.6204 0.9959 1.0 0.720049627880766 0.403909533156877 0.15670496181220497 0.08372175169469

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140622-091255" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
);
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