2014 World Cup Tournament Predictions: wc-20140622-175429.csv

FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub

32 rows sorted by spi_defense

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Suggested facets: group, win_group, sixteen, quarter, semi, cup, win

Link rowid country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense ▼ win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win
2 Argentina ARG f 89.66 2.7413 0.4218 0.8909 1.0 0.722523851438545 0.4923353026368111 0.309462554775411 0.142795902120626
10 Colombia COL c 87.48 2.4192 0.4511 0.987 1.0 0.658036257112319 0.21280203249331797 0.106721056013263 0.054383891934947
6 Brazil BRA a 91.07 3.1860000000000004 0.5158 0.9191 0.9939 0.7504521398885771 0.6034924795226501 0.45806388219777294 0.3567467930439989
25 Mexico MEX a 78.43 1.4776 0.5368 0.0451 0.6112 0.181456870884138 0.085663466901592 0.028855890442709996 0.006103545854890999
19 Greece GRE c 74.14 1.1789 0.5861 0.0 0.2202 0.09293684959097401 0.026276831778392 0.007419025772991 0.0012714210380110002
11 Costa Rica CRC d 78.52 1.5889 0.6109 0.8802 1.0 0.46763678288072896 0.15546775951028302 0.053334794020702 0.01186160838292
7 Chile CHI b 87.77 2.7354 0.6178 0.4064 1.0 0.4490705879388449 0.295166640736862 0.16135575716686903 0.07169335787992401
16 France FRA e 87.81 2.7464 0.6204 0.9971 0.9998 0.722173749292681 0.40462979740154 0.156575349820236 0.08381355360387799
29 Russia RUS h 78.29 1.6109 0.6422 0.0 0.3451 0.101019879314876 0.033510836966514995 0.006867084602145001 0.002158898432137
15 Spain ESP b 85.74 2.4827 0.6531 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
27 Nigeria NGA f 76.01 1.5294 0.7335 0.1091 0.8739 0.240699671039645 0.079596336239923 0.017720243986996002 0.0043932667204709995
21 Iran IRN f 71.13 1.1454 0.7389 0.0 0.1261 0.024499579557585 0.006147919083531001 0.000867692161579 0.000196953490057
4 Belgium BEL h 81.79 2.1428 0.759 0.9031 1.0 0.487876124013868 0.19088073022808802 0.083305493309295 0.022785363580161
14 England ENG d 81.41 2.1295 0.7794 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17 Germany GER g 88.69 3.1804 0.7879 0.7558 0.9782 0.770209596704822 0.459629441404286 0.217130715670713 0.12148070206744198
13 Ecuador ECU e 79.96 1.9882 0.7909999999999999 0.0029 0.3709 0.114271526989592 0.05261742381462099 0.021822317785418002 0.005280194423531
26 Netherlands NED b 86.19 2.7961 0.8076 0.5936 1.0 0.49155702755580893 0.31868371773295 0.16464354068113699 0.06389107423984
22 Italy ITA d 79.23 1.9415 0.8109 0.0562 0.5835 0.20147835768874803 0.042050482275558 0.014223740131153 0.004422606060601
31 Uruguay URU d 81.49 2.2409 0.8485 0.0636 0.4165 0.17019828209959698 0.04466806403418 0.017409383634968002 0.006076330213537999
12 Croatia CRO a 79.49 2.0251 0.8508 0.0358 0.3949 0.127463373732554 0.064233786322742 0.02341977036237 0.005416053367198
18 Ghana GHA g 77.45 1.9154 0.9179999999999999 0.0 0.1575 0.068997145128504 0.021885111057706002 0.008185002711622 0.0016894565030460002
28 Portugal POR g 78.95 2.077 0.9259999999999999 0.0349 0.2237 0.108885473123994 0.038044749573322 0.014077579091496 0.003367954216536
5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 79.44 2.199 0.9753 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
32 USA USA g 78.67 2.1221 0.9784 0.2093 0.6406 0.32232645425094003 0.111323631003748 0.036685595740415 0.00905037827022
8 Ivory Coast CIV c 79.49 2.2641 1.0166 0.013 0.7385 0.39267921509000003 0.146857973898669 0.055023280245010006 0.013215606879824
30 Switzerland SUI e 78.26 2.1701 1.0416 0.0 0.61 0.17259783114736904 0.075160540751651 0.029632912102997 0.006550977071316999
24 South Korea KOR h 72.56 1.6908 1.0781 0.0873 0.4675 0.11086854590065401 0.02780211987419 0.005117250505645 0.0010330452175780001
9 Cameroon CMR a 69.29 1.4838 1.1217 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
1 Algeria ALG h 64.24 1.1759 1.1673 0.0096 0.1874 0.029816781562364 0.005523792407660999 0.0006139594735100001 9.890843779700001e-05
20 Honduras HON e 68.3 1.5104 1.2044 0.0 0.0193 0.0032337905346070004 0.0009122675564069999 0.000234203646487 2.9705326007e-05
23 Japan JPN c 73.36 1.97 1.2383 0.0 0.0413 0.017034255537747 0.004636764792729 0.00123192394709 0.000192451623502
3 Australia AUS b 70.31 1.7889 1.3002 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140622-175429" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
);
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