Historical FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecasts: historical-senate-predictions.csv
Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette
207 rows sorted by candidate
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Suggested facets: year, winflag
Link | rowid | state | year | candidate ▼ | forecast_prob | result | winflag |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
104 | 104 | Missouri | 2012 | Akin | 0.02 | Loss | 0 |
170 | 170 | Tennessee | 2008 | Alexander | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
75 | 75 | Maine | 2008 | Allen | 0.0 | Lose | 0 |
189 | 189 | Virginia | 2012 | Allen | 0.12 | Loss | 0 |
113 | 113 | Nevada | 2010 | Angle | 0.83 | Loss | 0 |
119 | 119 | New Hampshire | 2010 | Ayotte | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
201 | 201 | Wisconsin | 2012 | Baldwin | 0.21 | Loss | 0 |
4 | 4 | Alabama | 2010 | Barnes | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
204 | 204 | Wyoming | 2012 | Barrasso | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
206 | 206 | Wyoming (special election) | 2008 | Barrasso | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
105 | 105 | Montana | 2008 | Baucus | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
193 | 193 | Washington | 2012 | Baumgartner | 0.12 | Loss | 0 |
84 | 84 | Massachusetts | 2008 | Beatty | 0.0 | Lose | 0 |
5 | 5 | Alaska | 2008 | Begich | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
22 | 22 | Colorado | 2010 | Bennett | 0.35 | Win | 1 |
141 | 141 | North Dakota | 2012 | Berg | 0.92 | Loss | 0 |
116 | 116 | Nevada | 2012 | Berkeley | 0.17 | Loss | 0 |
27 | 27 | Delaware | 2008 | Biden | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
94 | 94 | Minnesota | 2012 | Bills | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
23 | 23 | Connecticut | 2010 | Blumenthal | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
101 | 101 | Missouri | 2010 | Blunt | 0.99 | Win | 1 |
82 | 82 | Maryland | 2012 | Bongino | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
15 | 15 | Arkansas | 2010 | Boozman | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
183 | 183 | Vermont | 2010 | Britton | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
86 | 86 | Massachusetts | 2012 | Brown | 0.06 | Loss | 0 |
145 | 145 | Ohio | 2012 | Brown | 0.97 | Win | 1 |
21 | 21 | Colorado | 2010 | Buck | 0.65 | Loss | 0 |
137 | 137 | North Carolina | 2010 | Burr | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
192 | 192 | Washington | 2012 | Cantwell | 0.88 | Win | 1 |
81 | 81 | Maryland | 2012 | Cardin | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
13 | 13 | Arizona | 2012 | Carmona | 0.04 | Loss | 0 |
102 | 102 | Missouri | 2010 | Carnahan | 0.01 | Loss | 0 |
31 | 31 | Delaware | 2012 | Carper | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
207 | 207 | Wyoming (special election) | 2008 | Carter | 0.0 | Lose | 0 |
157 | 157 | Pennsylvania | 2012 | Casey | 0.99 | Win | 1 |
43 | 43 | Hawaii | 2010 | Cavasso | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
38 | 38 | Georgia | 2008 | Chambilss | 0.88 | Win | 1 |
205 | 205 | Wyoming | 2012 | Chestnut | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
173 | 173 | Tennessee | 2012 | Clayton | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
54 | 54 | Indiana | 2010 | Coats | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
149 | 149 | Oklahoma | 2010 | Coburn | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
95 | 95 | Mississippi | 2008 | Cochran | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
92 | 92 | Minnesota | 2008 | Coleman | 0.48 | Lose | 0 |
74 | 74 | Maine | 2008 | Collins | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
164 | 164 | South Carolina | 2008 | Conley | 0.0 | Lose | 0 |
61 | 61 | Iowa | 2010 | Conlin | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
69 | 69 | Kentucky | 2010 | Conway | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
29 | 29 | Delaware | 2010 | Coons | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
172 | 172 | Tennessee | 2012 | Corker | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
174 | 174 | Texas | 2008 | Cornyn | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
48 | 48 | Idaho | 2010 | Crapo | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
34 | 34 | Florida | 2010 | Crist | 0.03 | Loss | 0 |
176 | 176 | Texas | 2012 | Cruz | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
165 | 165 | South Carolina | 2010 | DeMint | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
78 | 78 | Maine | 2012 | Dill | 0.01 | Loss | 0 |
134 | 134 | New York (special election) | 2010 | DioGuardi | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
136 | 136 | North Carolina | 2008 | Dole | 0.12 | Lose | 0 |
56 | 56 | Indiana | 2012 | Donnelly | 0.7 | Win | 1 |
50 | 50 | Illinois | 2008 | Durbin | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
168 | 168 | South Dakota | 2008 | Dykstra | 0.0 | Lose | 0 |
55 | 55 | Indiana | 2010 | Ellsworth | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
18 | 18 | California | 2012 | Emken | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
202 | 202 | Wyoming | 2008 | Enzi | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
199 | 199 | Wisconsin | 2010 | Feingold | 0.03 | Loss | 0 |
17 | 17 | California | 2012 | Feinstein | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
2 | 2 | Alabama | 2008 | Figures | 0.0 | Lose | 0 |
111 | 111 | Nebraska | 2012 | Fischer | 0.99 | Win | 1 |
144 | 144 | Ohio | 2010 | Fisher | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
12 | 12 | Arizona | 2012 | Flake | 0.96 | Win | 1 |
96 | 96 | Mississippi | 2008 | Fleming | 0.0 | Lose | 0 |
91 | 91 | Minnesota | 2008 | Franken | 0.52 | Win | 1 |
53 | 53 | Illinois | 2010 | Giannoulias | 0.31 | Loss | 0 |
131 | 131 | New York | 2012 | Gillibrand | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
133 | 133 | New York (special election) | 2010 | Gillibrand | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
187 | 187 | Virginia | 2008 | Gilmore | 0.0 | Lose | 0 |
10 | 10 | Arizona | 2010 | Glassman | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
98 | 98 | Mississippi | 2012 | Gore | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
163 | 163 | South Carolina | 2008 | Graham | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
179 | 179 | Utah | 2010 | Granato | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
60 | 60 | Iowa | 2010 | Grassley | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
166 | 166 | South Carolina | 2010 | Greene | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
135 | 135 | North Carolina | 2008 | Hagan | 0.88 | Win | 1 |
58 | 58 | Iowa | 2008 | Harkin | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
180 | 180 | Utah | 2012 | Hatch | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
127 | 127 | New Mexico | 2012 | Heinrich | 0.97 | Win | 1 |
142 | 142 | North Dakota | 2012 | Heitkamp | 0.08 | Win | 1 |
115 | 115 | Nevada | 2012 | Heller | 0.83 | Win | 1 |
162 | 162 | Rhode Island | 2012 | Hinkley | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
44 | 44 | Hawaii | 2012 | Hirono | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
120 | 120 | New Hampshire | 2010 | Hodes | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
90 | 90 | Michigan | 2012 | Hoekstra | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
139 | 139 | North Dakota | 2010 | Hoeven | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
88 | 88 | Michigan | 2008 | Hoogendyk | 0.0 | Lose | 0 |
154 | 154 | Oregon | 2010 | Huffman | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
147 | 147 | Oklahoma | 2008 | Inhofe | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
42 | 42 | Hawaii | 2010 | Inouye | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
40 | 40 | Georgia | 2010 | Isakson | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
109 | 109 | Nebraska | 2008 | Johanns | 0.99 | Win | 1 |
167 | 167 | South Dakota | 2008 | Johnson | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
198 | 198 | Wisconsin | 2010 | Johnson | 0.97 | Win | 1 |
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CREATE TABLE "forecast-methodology/historical-senate-predictions" ( "state" TEXT, "year" INTEGER, "candidate" TEXT, "forecast_prob" REAL, "result" TEXT, "winflag" INTEGER );