Historical FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecasts: historical-senate-predictions.csv
Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette
207 rows sorted by year
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Suggested facets: year, winflag
Link | rowid | state | year ▼ | candidate | forecast_prob | result | winflag |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 1 | Alabama | 2008 | Sessions | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
2 | 2 | Alabama | 2008 | Figures | 0.0 | Lose | 0 |
5 | 5 | Alaska | 2008 | Begich | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
6 | 6 | Alaska | 2008 | Stevens | 0.0 | Lose | 0 |
14 | 14 | Arkansas | 2008 | Pryor | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
19 | 19 | Colorado | 2008 | M. Udall | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
20 | 20 | Colorado | 2008 | Schaeffer | 0.0 | Lose | 0 |
27 | 27 | Delaware | 2008 | Biden | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
28 | 28 | Delaware | 2008 | O'Connell | 0.0 | Lose | 0 |
38 | 38 | Georgia | 2008 | Chambilss | 0.88 | Win | 1 |
39 | 39 | Georgia | 2008 | Martin | 0.12 | Lose | 0 |
46 | 46 | Idaho | 2008 | Risch | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
47 | 47 | Idaho | 2008 | LaRocco | 0.0 | Lose | 0 |
50 | 50 | Illinois | 2008 | Durbin | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
51 | 51 | Illinois | 2008 | Sauerberg | 0.0 | Lose | 0 |
58 | 58 | Iowa | 2008 | Harkin | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
59 | 59 | Iowa | 2008 | Reed | 0.0 | Lose | 0 |
62 | 62 | Kansas | 2008 | Roberts | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
63 | 63 | Kansas | 2008 | Slattery | 0.0 | Lose | 0 |
66 | 66 | Kentucky | 2008 | McConnell | 0.92 | Win | 1 |
67 | 67 | Kentucky | 2008 | Lunsford | 0.08 | Lose | 0 |
70 | 70 | Louisiana | 2008 | Landireu | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
71 | 71 | Louisiana | 2008 | Kennedy | 0.0 | Lose | 0 |
74 | 74 | Maine | 2008 | Collins | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
75 | 75 | Maine | 2008 | Allen | 0.0 | Lose | 0 |
83 | 83 | Massachusetts | 2008 | Kerry | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
84 | 84 | Massachusetts | 2008 | Beatty | 0.0 | Lose | 0 |
87 | 87 | Michigan | 2008 | Levin | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
88 | 88 | Michigan | 2008 | Hoogendyk | 0.0 | Lose | 0 |
91 | 91 | Minnesota | 2008 | Franken | 0.52 | Win | 1 |
92 | 92 | Minnesota | 2008 | Coleman | 0.48 | Lose | 0 |
95 | 95 | Mississippi | 2008 | Cochran | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
96 | 96 | Mississippi | 2008 | Fleming | 0.0 | Lose | 0 |
99 | 99 | Mississippi (special election) | 2008 | Wicker | 0.94 | Win | 1 |
100 | 100 | Mississippi (special election) | 2008 | Musgrove | 0.06 | Lose | 0 |
105 | 105 | Montana | 2008 | Baucus | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
106 | 106 | Montana | 2008 | Kelleher | 0.0 | Lose | 0 |
109 | 109 | Nebraska | 2008 | Johanns | 0.99 | Win | 1 |
110 | 110 | Nebraska | 2008 | Kleeb | 0.01 | Lose | 0 |
117 | 117 | New Hampshire | 2008 | Shaheen | 0.99 | Win | 1 |
118 | 118 | New Hampshire | 2008 | Sununu | 0.01 | Lose | 0 |
121 | 121 | New Jersey | 2008 | Lautenberg | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
122 | 122 | New Jersey | 2008 | Zimmer | 0.0 | Lose | 0 |
125 | 125 | New Mexico | 2008 | T. Udall | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
126 | 126 | New Mexico | 2008 | Pearce | 0.0 | Lose | 0 |
135 | 135 | North Carolina | 2008 | Hagan | 0.88 | Win | 1 |
136 | 136 | North Carolina | 2008 | Dole | 0.12 | Lose | 0 |
147 | 147 | Oklahoma | 2008 | Inhofe | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
148 | 148 | Oklahoma | 2008 | Rice | 0.0 | Lose | 0 |
151 | 151 | Oregon | 2008 | Merkley | 0.92 | Win | 1 |
152 | 152 | Oregon | 2008 | Smith | 0.08 | Lose | 0 |
159 | 159 | Rhode Island | 2008 | Reed | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
160 | 160 | Rhode Island | 2008 | Tingle | 0.0 | Lose | 0 |
163 | 163 | South Carolina | 2008 | Graham | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
164 | 164 | South Carolina | 2008 | Conley | 0.0 | Lose | 0 |
167 | 167 | South Dakota | 2008 | Johnson | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
168 | 168 | South Dakota | 2008 | Dykstra | 0.0 | Lose | 0 |
170 | 170 | Tennessee | 2008 | Alexander | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
171 | 171 | Tennessee | 2008 | Tuke | 0.0 | Lose | 0 |
174 | 174 | Texas | 2008 | Cornyn | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
175 | 175 | Texas | 2008 | Noriega | 0.0 | Lose | 0 |
186 | 186 | Virginia | 2008 | Warner | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
187 | 187 | Virginia | 2008 | Gilmore | 0.0 | Lose | 0 |
202 | 202 | Wyoming | 2008 | Enzi | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
203 | 203 | Wyoming | 2008 | Rothfuss | 0.0 | Lose | 0 |
206 | 206 | Wyoming (special election) | 2008 | Barrasso | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
207 | 207 | Wyoming (special election) | 2008 | Carter | 0.0 | Lose | 0 |
3 | 3 | Alabama | 2010 | Shelby | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
4 | 4 | Alabama | 2010 | Barnes | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
7 | 7 | Alaska | 2010 | Miller | 0.71 | Lose | 0 |
8 | 8 | Alaska | 2010 | Murkowski | 0.21 | Win | 1 |
9 | 9 | Alaska | 2010 | McAdams | 0.08 | Loss | 0 |
10 | 10 | Arizona | 2010 | Glassman | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
11 | 11 | Arizona | 2010 | McCain | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
15 | 15 | Arkansas | 2010 | Boozman | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
16 | 16 | Arkansas | 2010 | Lincoln | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
21 | 21 | Colorado | 2010 | Buck | 0.65 | Loss | 0 |
22 | 22 | Colorado | 2010 | Bennett | 0.35 | Win | 1 |
23 | 23 | Connecticut | 2010 | Blumenthal | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
24 | 24 | Connecticut | 2010 | McMahon | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
29 | 29 | Delaware | 2010 | Coons | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
30 | 30 | Delaware | 2010 | O'Donnell | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
33 | 33 | Florida | 2010 | Rubio | 0.97 | Win | 1 |
34 | 34 | Florida | 2010 | Crist | 0.03 | Loss | 0 |
35 | 35 | Florida | 2010 | Meeks | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
40 | 40 | Georgia | 2010 | Isakson | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
41 | 41 | Georgia | 2010 | Thurmond | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
42 | 42 | Hawaii | 2010 | Inouye | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
43 | 43 | Hawaii | 2010 | Cavasso | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
48 | 48 | Idaho | 2010 | Crapo | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
49 | 49 | Idaho | 2010 | Sullivan | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
52 | 52 | Illinois | 2010 | Kirk | 0.69 | Win | 1 |
53 | 53 | Illinois | 2010 | Giannoulias | 0.31 | Loss | 0 |
54 | 54 | Indiana | 2010 | Coats | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
55 | 55 | Indiana | 2010 | Ellsworth | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
60 | 60 | Iowa | 2010 | Grassley | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
61 | 61 | Iowa | 2010 | Conlin | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
64 | 64 | Kansas | 2010 | Moran | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
65 | 65 | Kansas | 2010 | Johnston | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
68 | 68 | Kentucky | 2010 | Paul | 1.0 | Win | 1 |
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CREATE TABLE "forecast-methodology/historical-senate-predictions" ( "state" TEXT, "year" INTEGER, "candidate" TEXT, "forecast_prob" REAL, "result" TEXT, "winflag" INTEGER );