Historical FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecasts: historical-senate-predictions.csv
Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette
207 rows sorted by result
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Suggested facets: year, result, winflag
Link | rowid | state | year | candidate | forecast_prob | result ▼ | winflag |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2 | 2 | Alabama | 2008 | Figures | 0.0 | Lose | 0 |
6 | 6 | Alaska | 2008 | Stevens | 0.0 | Lose | 0 |
7 | 7 | Alaska | 2010 | Miller | 0.71 | Lose | 0 |
20 | 20 | Colorado | 2008 | Schaeffer | 0.0 | Lose | 0 |
28 | 28 | Delaware | 2008 | O'Connell | 0.0 | Lose | 0 |
39 | 39 | Georgia | 2008 | Martin | 0.12 | Lose | 0 |
47 | 47 | Idaho | 2008 | LaRocco | 0.0 | Lose | 0 |
51 | 51 | Illinois | 2008 | Sauerberg | 0.0 | Lose | 0 |
59 | 59 | Iowa | 2008 | Reed | 0.0 | Lose | 0 |
63 | 63 | Kansas | 2008 | Slattery | 0.0 | Lose | 0 |
67 | 67 | Kentucky | 2008 | Lunsford | 0.08 | Lose | 0 |
71 | 71 | Louisiana | 2008 | Kennedy | 0.0 | Lose | 0 |
75 | 75 | Maine | 2008 | Allen | 0.0 | Lose | 0 |
84 | 84 | Massachusetts | 2008 | Beatty | 0.0 | Lose | 0 |
88 | 88 | Michigan | 2008 | Hoogendyk | 0.0 | Lose | 0 |
92 | 92 | Minnesota | 2008 | Coleman | 0.48 | Lose | 0 |
96 | 96 | Mississippi | 2008 | Fleming | 0.0 | Lose | 0 |
100 | 100 | Mississippi (special election) | 2008 | Musgrove | 0.06 | Lose | 0 |
106 | 106 | Montana | 2008 | Kelleher | 0.0 | Lose | 0 |
110 | 110 | Nebraska | 2008 | Kleeb | 0.01 | Lose | 0 |
118 | 118 | New Hampshire | 2008 | Sununu | 0.01 | Lose | 0 |
122 | 122 | New Jersey | 2008 | Zimmer | 0.0 | Lose | 0 |
126 | 126 | New Mexico | 2008 | Pearce | 0.0 | Lose | 0 |
136 | 136 | North Carolina | 2008 | Dole | 0.12 | Lose | 0 |
148 | 148 | Oklahoma | 2008 | Rice | 0.0 | Lose | 0 |
152 | 152 | Oregon | 2008 | Smith | 0.08 | Lose | 0 |
160 | 160 | Rhode Island | 2008 | Tingle | 0.0 | Lose | 0 |
164 | 164 | South Carolina | 2008 | Conley | 0.0 | Lose | 0 |
168 | 168 | South Dakota | 2008 | Dykstra | 0.0 | Lose | 0 |
171 | 171 | Tennessee | 2008 | Tuke | 0.0 | Lose | 0 |
175 | 175 | Texas | 2008 | Noriega | 0.0 | Lose | 0 |
187 | 187 | Virginia | 2008 | Gilmore | 0.0 | Lose | 0 |
203 | 203 | Wyoming | 2008 | Rothfuss | 0.0 | Lose | 0 |
207 | 207 | Wyoming (special election) | 2008 | Carter | 0.0 | Lose | 0 |
4 | 4 | Alabama | 2010 | Barnes | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
9 | 9 | Alaska | 2010 | McAdams | 0.08 | Loss | 0 |
11 | 11 | Arizona | 2010 | McCain | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
13 | 13 | Arizona | 2012 | Carmona | 0.04 | Loss | 0 |
16 | 16 | Arkansas | 2010 | Lincoln | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
18 | 18 | California | 2012 | Emken | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
21 | 21 | Colorado | 2010 | Buck | 0.65 | Loss | 0 |
24 | 24 | Connecticut | 2010 | McMahon | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
26 | 26 | Connecticut | 2012 | McMahon | 0.04 | Loss | 0 |
30 | 30 | Delaware | 2010 | O'Donnell | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
32 | 32 | Delaware | 2012 | Wade | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
34 | 34 | Florida | 2010 | Crist | 0.03 | Loss | 0 |
35 | 35 | Florida | 2010 | Meeks | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
37 | 37 | Florida | 2012 | Mack | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
41 | 41 | Georgia | 2010 | Thurmond | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
43 | 43 | Hawaii | 2010 | Cavasso | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
45 | 45 | Hawaii | 2012 | Lingle | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
49 | 49 | Idaho | 2010 | Sullivan | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
53 | 53 | Illinois | 2010 | Giannoulias | 0.31 | Loss | 0 |
55 | 55 | Indiana | 2010 | Ellsworth | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
57 | 57 | Indiana | 2012 | Lingle | 0.3 | Loss | 0 |
61 | 61 | Iowa | 2010 | Conlin | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
65 | 65 | Kansas | 2010 | Johnston | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
69 | 69 | Kentucky | 2010 | Conway | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
73 | 73 | Louisiana | 2010 | Melancon | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
77 | 77 | Maine | 2012 | Summers | 0.06 | Loss | 0 |
78 | 78 | Maine | 2012 | Dill | 0.01 | Loss | 0 |
80 | 80 | Maryland | 2010 | Wargotz | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
82 | 82 | Maryland | 2012 | Bongino | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
86 | 86 | Massachusetts | 2012 | Brown | 0.06 | Loss | 0 |
90 | 90 | Michigan | 2012 | Hoekstra | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
94 | 94 | Minnesota | 2012 | Bills | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
98 | 98 | Mississippi | 2012 | Gore | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
102 | 102 | Missouri | 2010 | Carnahan | 0.01 | Loss | 0 |
104 | 104 | Missouri | 2012 | Akin | 0.02 | Loss | 0 |
108 | 108 | Montana | 2012 | Tester | 0.34 | Loss | 0 |
112 | 112 | Nebraska | 2012 | Kerrey | 0.01 | Loss | 0 |
113 | 113 | Nevada | 2010 | Angle | 0.83 | Loss | 0 |
116 | 116 | Nevada | 2012 | Berkeley | 0.17 | Loss | 0 |
120 | 120 | New Hampshire | 2010 | Hodes | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
124 | 124 | New Jersey | 2012 | Kyrillos | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
128 | 128 | New Mexico | 2012 | Wilson | 0.03 | Loss | 0 |
130 | 130 | New York | 2010 | Townsend | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
132 | 132 | New York | 2012 | Long | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
134 | 134 | New York (special election) | 2010 | DioGuardi | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
138 | 138 | North Carolina | 2010 | Marshall | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
140 | 140 | North Dakota | 2010 | Potter | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
141 | 141 | North Dakota | 2012 | Berg | 0.92 | Loss | 0 |
144 | 144 | Ohio | 2010 | Fisher | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
146 | 146 | Ohio | 2012 | Mandel | 0.03 | Loss | 0 |
150 | 150 | Oklahoma | 2010 | Rogers | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
154 | 154 | Oregon | 2010 | Huffman | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
156 | 156 | Pennsylvania | 2010 | Sestak | 0.03 | Loss | 0 |
158 | 158 | Pennsylvania | 2012 | Smith | 0.01 | Loss | 0 |
162 | 162 | Rhode Island | 2012 | Hinkley | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
166 | 166 | South Carolina | 2010 | Greene | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
173 | 173 | Tennessee | 2012 | Clayton | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
177 | 177 | Texas | 2012 | Sadler | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
179 | 179 | Utah | 2010 | Granato | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
181 | 181 | Utah | 2012 | Lowell | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
183 | 183 | Vermont | 2010 | Britton | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
185 | 185 | Vermont | 2012 | MacGovern | 0.0 | Loss | 0 |
189 | 189 | Virginia | 2012 | Allen | 0.12 | Loss | 0 |
191 | 191 | Washington | 2010 | Rossi | 0.2 | Loss | 0 |
193 | 193 | Washington | 2012 | Baumgartner | 0.12 | Loss | 0 |
195 | 195 | West Virginia | 2010 | Raese | 0.11 | Loss | 0 |
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CREATE TABLE "forecast-methodology/historical-senate-predictions" ( "state" TEXT, "year" INTEGER, "candidate" TEXT, "forecast_prob" REAL, "result" TEXT, "winflag" INTEGER );