Most Common Name: adjusted-name-combinations-list.csv

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This directory contains the code and data behind the story Dear Mona, What’s The Most Common Name In America?

The main script file is most-common-name.R

There are four input files:

  • state-pop.csv - Total population and Hispanic population by state.
  • surnames.csv - Data on surnames from the U.S. Census Bureau, including a breakdown by race/ethnicity.
  • aging-curve.csv - Data from the Social Security Administration on the chances that someone born in the decade shown was still alive in 2013: http://www.ssa.gov/oact/NOTES/as120/LifeTables_Tbl_7.html
  • adjustments.csv - Taken directly from Lee Hartman's article: http://mypage.siu.edu/lhartman/johnsmith.html.

And five output files:

  • adjusted-name-combinations-list.csv - Adjusted estimates for the most common full names.
  • adjusted-name-combinations-matrix.csv - The same data from the file adjusted-name-combinations-list.csv but in matrix form. These are the estimates presented in the second (and final) table of the article.
  • independent-name-combinations-by-pop.csv - Matrix of estimates for the top 100 most common first names by top 100 most common surnames. These were calculated using independent odds, and displayed in the first table presented in the article.
  • new-top-firstNames.csv - Final estimated ranking of top first names.
  • new-top-surnames.csv - Final estimated ranking of top surnames.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette

400 rows

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Suggested facets: FirstName, Surname

Link rowid ▼ Unnamed: 0 FirstName Surname Adjustment cleanName Estimate finalEstimate
1 1 1 James Smith 21.1 james smith 25837.9319302092 31289.7355674834
2 2 2 Michael Smith 5.6 michael smith 29275.9128558894 30915.3639758192
3 3 3 Robert Smith 8.7 robert smith 24005.2158484352 26093.6696272491
4 4 4 David Smith 10.8 david smith 22613.772849941 25056.0603177346
5 5 5 James Johnson 9.6 james johnson 20498.0436015171 22465.8557872627
6 6 6 Michael Johnson -4.8 michael johnson 23225.5019409123 22110.6778477485
7 7 7 William Smith 16.6 william smith 18925.4835104948 22067.113773237
8 8 8 James Williams 20.7 james williams 17215.259742662 20778.8185093931
9 9 9 Robert Johnson 5.9 robert johnson 19044.0923234165 20167.693770498
10 10 10 Mary Smith 14.7 mary smith 17293.1240457633 19835.2132804905
11 11 11 James Brown 25.4 james brown 15257.8615744203 19133.358414323
12 12 12 John Smith -23.5 john smith 24464.3906069638 18715.2588143273
13 13 13 David Johnson 3.5 david johnson 17940.2168534601 18568.1244433312
14 14 14 Michael Brown 4.2 michael brown 17288.0641928502 18014.1628889499
15 15 15 Maria Garcia 663.9 maria garcia 2348.39080111503 17939.3573297177
16 16 16 Michael Williams -8.1 michael williams 19505.9126782672 17925.9337513276
17 17 17 Michael Jones -2.4 michael jones 17114.7797806733 16704.0250659371
18 18 18 James Jones 8.9 james jones 15104.9266046916 16449.2650725092
19 19 19 Maria Rodriguez 639.8 maria rodriguez 2206.5883862055 16324.3408811483
20 20 20 Robert Brown 14.2 robert brown 14175.6028101951 16188.5384092428
21 21 21 Michael Miller 18.1 michael miller 13654.8945309654 16126.4304410701
22 22 22 Robert Jones 12.6 robert jones 14033.5157047323 15801.7386835285
23 23 23 Robert Williams -1.3 robert williams 15994.1603347251 15786.2362503737
24 24 24 William Johnson 4.3 william johnson 15014.180981116 15659.7907633039
25 25 25 James Davis 32.8 james davis 11787.5648441661 15653.8861130525
26 26 26 Mary Johnson 11.7 mary johnson 13719.1789054159 15324.3228373496
27 27 27 Maria Martinez 614.1 maria martinez 2120.44744396186 15142.1151973317
28 28 28 Charles Smith 38.4 charles smith 10822.0639352004 14977.7364863173
29 29 29 David Brown 10.3 david brown 13353.925412907 14729.3797304364
30 30 30 Robert Miller 29.6 robert miller 11196.5318457184 14510.7052720511
31 31 31 James Miller 20.3 james miller 12051.3487364851 14497.7725299916
32 32 32 John Williams -11.3 john williams 16300.0986256338 14458.1874809372
33 33 33 Richard Smith 6.2 richard smith 13518.6934511952 14356.8524451693
34 34 34 David Williams -7.3 david williams 15067.0717155241 13967.1754802908
35 35 35 David Jones 5.0 david jones 13220.0742720496 13881.077985652
36 36 36 Michael Davis 2.5 michael davis 13356.0116998944 13689.9119923918
37 37 37 William Brown 22.3 william brown 11175.9102242424 13668.1382042484
38 38 38 David Miller 27.9 david miller 10547.5338970014 13490.2958542648
39 39 39 Mary Williams 13.1 mary williams 11522.0375614434 13031.4244819925
40 40 40 Jennifer Smith 16.7 jennifer smith 10956.9917876871 12786.8094162309
41 41 41 William Jones 15.4 william jones 11063.8901037623 12767.7291797417
42 42 42 John Johnson -35.2 john johnson 19408.370093265 12576.6238204357
43 43 43 John Miller 8.4 john miller 11410.7005013588 12369.1993434729
44 44 44 Daniel Smith -5.2 daniel smith 12992.3819562103 12316.7780944874
45 45 45 Thomas Smith -2.6 thomas smith 12446.2774940001 12122.6742791561
46 46 46 Linda Smith 27.5 linda smith 9484.2252088873 12092.3871413313
47 47 47 James Wilson 40.9 james wilson 8563.53625629429 12066.0225851187
48 48 48 Robert Davis 7.2 robert davis 10951.4584671848 11739.9634768221
49 49 49 Mary Brown 13.1 mary brown 10211.9664062989 11549.7340055241
50 50 50 Mary Jones 12.2 mary jones 10109.6082373249 11342.9804422785
51 51 51 Patricia Smith 17.1 patricia smith 9569.15350947337 11205.4787595933
52 52 52 James Moore 43.0 james moore 7637.54703747539 10921.6922635898
53 53 53 James Taylor 37.4 james taylor 7893.00164755117 10844.9842637353
54 54 54 William Miller 22.5 william miller 8827.23905332794 10813.3678403267
55 55 55 John Davis -3.8 john davis 11160.9393287173 10736.8236342261
56 56 56 Charles Johnson 24.8 charles johnson 8585.48350546518 10714.6834148205
57 57 57 William Davis 23.1 william davis 8634.02553616631 10628.4854350207
58 58 58 John Jones -26.5 john jones 14301.9505409659 10511.9336476099
59 59 59 Richard Johnson -2.0 richard johnson 10724.8044675803 10510.3083782287
60 60 60 James Anderson 24.0 james anderson 8249.25834268617 10229.0803449309
61 61 61 Robert Taylor 39.2 robert taylor 7333.14139666078 10207.7328241518
62 62 62 Barbara Smith 24.0 barbara smith 8109.48804018202 10055.7651698257
63 63 63 Michael Moore 15.7 michael moore 8653.79482018299 10012.4406069517
64 64 64 James Martin 35.9 james martin 7350.37519807168 9989.15989417942
65 65 65 Michael Wilson 2.6 michael wilson 9702.9956520785 9955.27353903254
66 66 66 James Thomas 24.8 james thomas 7949.50295037765 9920.97968207131
67 67 67 Joseph Smith -27.6 joseph smith 13681.479396881 9905.39108334182
68 68 68 James White 41.0 james white 7003.26547770753 9874.60432356762
69 69 69 Mary Miller 21.5 mary miller 8065.87265504504 9800.03527587973
70 70 70 Robert Anderson 27.0 robert anderson 7664.12836911917 9733.44302878135
71 71 71 Robert Wilson 22.0 robert wilson 7956.11416631597 9706.45928290549
72 72 72 Charles Williams 33.3 charles williams 7210.50903374917 9611.60854198764
73 73 73 Jennifer Johnson 10.3 jennifer johnson 8692.52601222627 9587.85619148557
74 74 74 Michael Anderson 2.4 michael anderson 9346.9000931857 9571.22569542216
75 75 75 John Brown -34.3 john brown 14446.7555062786 9491.51836762503
76 76 76 Michael Martin 13.0 michael martin 8328.41205472958 9411.10562184442
77 77 77 James Thompson 33.6 james thompson 7021.93329286115 9381.30287926249
78 78 78 Mark Smith 4.1 mark smith 8999.71850725896 9368.70696605657
79 79 79 Michael Thomas 2.9 michael thomas 9007.25941424085 9268.46993725383
80 80 80 David Anderson 28.1 david anderson 7219.88334228401 9248.67056146581
81 81 81 Linda Johnson 22.9 linda johnson 7524.13398965112 9247.16067328123
82 82 82 Elizabeth Smith 1.7 elizabeth smith 8925.38785317908 9077.11944668312
83 83 83 Mary Davis 14.8 mary davis 7889.3241764954 9056.94415461672
84 84 84 James Jackson 19.8 james jackson 7536.99549985668 9029.3206088283
85 85 85 Michael Taylor 0.6 michael taylor 8943.24007932425 8996.89951980019
86 86 86 Charles Brown 39.9 charles brown 6390.66446644502 8940.53958855659
87 87 87 Daniel Garcia 35.1 daniel garcia 6600.06660776574 8916.68998709151
88 88 88 James Lee 12.2 james lee 7833.66963918681 8789.3773351676
89 89 89 Michael Thompson 6.7 michael thompson 7956.26785134913 8489.33779738953
90 90 90 Daniel Johnson -17.8 daniel johnson 10307.2650142943 8472.57184174991
91 91 91 David Wilson 12.6 david wilson 7494.94441796468 8439.30741462823
92 92 92 Thomas Johnson -15.0 thomas johnson 9874.02317792733 8392.91970123823
93 93 93 John Anderson 6.9 john anderson 7810.72877110855 8349.66905631504
94 94 94 Robert Moore 17.2 robert moore 7095.80649420378 8316.28521120682
95 95 95 John Wilson 2.5 john wilson 8108.29970900011 8311.00720172512
96 96 96 Richard Brown 3.9 richard brown 7983.0829302633 8294.42316454356
97 97 97 Charles Jones 30.5 charles jones 6326.60856503613 8256.22417737215
98 98 98 Mark Johnson 14.7 mark johnson 7139.75959304575 8189.30425322347
99 99 99 Robert Lee 12.1 robert lee 7278.01788014427 8158.65804364172
100 100 100 Patricia Johnson 7.1 patricia johnson 7591.51028018081 8130.50751007365

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CREATE TABLE "most-common-name/adjusted-name-combinations-list" (
"Unnamed: 0" INTEGER,
  "FirstName" TEXT,
  "Surname" TEXT,
  "Adjustment" REAL,
  "cleanName" TEXT,
  "Estimate" REAL,
  "finalEstimate" REAL
);