This directory contains the data for FiveThirtyEight's partisan lean, which is used in our election forecasts.

Partisan lean is the average difference between how a state or district votes and how the country votes overall, with 2016 presidential election results weighted 50 percent, 2012 presidential election results weighted 25 percent and results from elections for the state legislature weighted 25 percent.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette

435 rows

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Link rowid ▼ district 2018 2020
1 AK-1 R+15.21 R+15.52
2 AL-1 R+28.61 R+28.78
3 AL-2 R+30.97 R+31.15
4 AL-3 R+31.37 R+31.55
5 AL-4 R+59.81 R+60.1
6 AL-5 R+32.81 R+32.99
7 AL-6 R+47.21 R+47.44
8 AL-7 D+41.69 D+41.48
9 AR-1 R+30 R+31.56
10 AR-2 R+9.63 R+11.2
11 AR-3 R+30.8 R+32.36
12 AR-4 R+29.13 R+30.69
13 AZ-1 R+5.56 R+3.79
14 AZ-2 R+1.22 D+0.54
15 AZ-3 D+24.11 D+25.82
16 AZ-4 R+42.86 R+41.24
17 AZ-5 R+27.79 R+26.08
18 AZ-6 R+17.56 R+15.81
19 AZ-7 D+43.88 D+45.47
20 AZ-8 R+26.32 R+24.61
21 AZ-9 D+8.38 D+10.13
22 CA-1 R+22.53 R+23.88
23 CA-10 R+0.77 R+2.2
24 CA-11 D+41.1 D+39.96
25 CA-12 D+71.57 D+71.11
26 CA-13 D+75.93 D+75.62
27 CA-14 D+52.03 D+51.09
28 CA-15 D+39.23 D+38.07
29 CA-16 D+16.83 D+15.44
30 CA-17 D+47.1 D+46.06
31 CA-18 D+44.6 D+43.52
32 CA-19 D+45.2 D+44.13
33 CA-2 D+40.5 D+39.35
34 CA-20 D+42.4 D+41.28
35 CA-21 D+10.07 D+8.65
36 CA-22 R+15.3 R+16.7
37 CA-23 R+27.1 R+28.41
38 CA-24 D+13.17 D+11.76
39 CA-25 R+0.1 R+1.54
40 CA-26 D+14.07 D+12.66
41 CA-27 D+30.3 D+29.02
42 CA-28 D+43.83 D+42.74
43 CA-29 D+55.47 D+54.59
44 CA-3 D+8.17 D+6.74
45 CA-30 D+36.03 D+34.82
46 CA-31 D+15.63 D+14.24
47 CA-32 D+32.87 D+31.62
48 CA-33 D+31.5 D+30.24
49 CA-34 D+67.6 D+67.03
50 CA-35 D+35.5 D+34.28
51 CA-36 D+2.97 D+1.53
52 CA-37 D+70.83 D+70.35
53 CA-38 D+33.07 D+31.82
54 CA-39 D+0.53 R+0.9
55 CA-4 R+19.9 R+21.27
56 CA-40 D+63.97 D+63.3
57 CA-41 D+23.03 D+21.69
58 CA-42 R+17 R+18.39
59 CA-43 D+56.5 D+55.65
60 CA-44 D+66.87 D+66.27
61 CA-45 R+4.3 R+5.73
62 CA-46 D+30.03 D+28.75
63 CA-47 D+24.6 D+23.27
64 CA-48 R+6.73 R+8.16
65 CA-49 R+1.13 R+2.57
66 CA-5 D+40.03 D+38.88
67 CA-50 R+21.57 R+22.92
68 CA-51 D+42.2 D+41.08
69 CA-52 D+13.17 D+11.76
70 CA-53 D+27.63 D+26.33
71 CA-6 D+39.5 D+38.34
72 CA-7 D+4.97 D+3.53
73 CA-8 R+18.67 R+20.04
74 CA-9 D+14.33 D+12.93
75 CO-1 D+40.37 D+39
76 CO-2 D+16.77 D+15.13
77 CO-3 R+13.56 R+15.22
78 CO-4 R+25.39 R+26.96
79 CO-5 R+26.49 R+28.04
80 CO-6 D+4.07 D+2.38
81 CO-7 D+9.37 D+7.69
82 CT-1 D+20.56 D+19.61
83 CT-2 D+2.29 D+1.31
84 CT-3 D+15.02 D+14.06
85 CT-4 D+14.96 D+13.99
86 CT-5 D+1.39 D+0.41
87 DE-1 D+13.66 D+12.13
88 FL-1 R+43.9 R+44.25
89 FL-10 D+20.46 D+20.09
90 FL-11 R+32.9 R+33.27
91 FL-12 R+19.8 R+20.18
92 FL-13 D+0.8 D+0.42
93 FL-14 D+12.7 D+12.32
94 FL-15 R+13.44 R+13.81
95 FL-16 R+14.9 R+15.28
96 FL-17 R+28.47 R+28.84
97 FL-18 R+12.27 R+12.65
98 FL-19 R+26.9 R+27.27
99 FL-2 R+38.84 R+39.19
100 FL-20 D+58.3 D+57.97

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CREATE TABLE "partisan-lean/fivethirtyeight_partisan_lean_DISTRICTS" (
"district" TEXT,
  "2018" TEXT,
  "2020" TEXT
);