FiveThirtyEight's Partisan Lean: fivethirtyeight_partisan_lean_STATES.csv

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This directory contains the data for FiveThirtyEight's partisan lean metric, or the average margin difference between how a state or district votes and how the country votes overall. Positive numbers mean Democratic leans, while negative numbers mean Republican leans.

This version of partisan lean, meant to be used for congressional and gubernatorial elections, is calculated as 50 percent the state or district’s lean relative to the nation in the most recent presidential election, 25 percent its relative lean in the second-most-recent presidential election and 25 percent a custom state-legislative lean based on the statewide popular vote in the four most recent state House elections.

The current partisan leans are meant to be used for the 2022 midterm elections; they take election results through 2021 into account and correspond to the district lines as they stood after the 2021-22 redistricting process. The partisan leans in the “2021” folder were meant to be used for 2021-22 special elections; they take election results through 2020 into account and correspond to the district lines for the 117th Congress, before redistricting took place. Past partisan leans for the 2018 and 2020 election cycles are also available. Due to redistricting and changes in methodology, partisan leans are not comparable across years.

Column Description
state/district The state or district the partisan lean is calculated for.
2022 Partisan lean index for the 2022 midterm elections, taking election results through 2021 into account and corresponding to post-redistricting congressional maps.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette

51 rows

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Link rowid ▼ state 2022
1 1 Alabama -29.17974
2 2 Alaska -14.6111
3 3 Arizona -7.171309
4 4 Arkansas -31.50176
5 5 California 25.74527
6 6 Colorado 6.750234
7 7 Connecticut 12.14592
8 8 Delaware 13.92317
9 9 District of Columbia 68.32358
10 10 Florida -7.396878
11 11 Georgia -7.357549
12 12 Hawaii 31.81241
13 13 Idaho -36.79051
14 14 Illinois 13.20919
15 15 Indiana -20.25634
16 16 Iowa -9.611277
17 17 Kansas -21.07362
18 18 Kentucky -27.18871
19 19 Louisiana -20.39682
20 20 Maine 4.379831
21 21 Maryland 26.2639
22 22 Massachusetts 32.67723
23 23 Michigan -1.175974
24 24 Minnesota 1.995261
25 25 Mississippi -19.78266
26 26 Missouri -20.98018
27 27 Montana -19.90665
28 28 Nebraska -24.75097
29 29 Nevada -2.59005
30 30 New Hampshire 0.5663683
31 31 New Jersey 11.34622
32 32 New Mexico 7.150143
33 33 New York 19.90219
34 34 North Carolina -4.815506
35 35 North Dakota -37.06978
36 36 Ohio -12.10644
37 37 Oklahoma -36.86855
38 38 Oregon 10.60454
39 39 Pennsylvania -2.96776
40 40 Rhode Island 23.66751
41 41 South Carolina -18.26597
42 42 South Dakota -32.0032
43 43 Tennessee -29.205
44 44 Texas -12.90278
45 45 Utah -26.28323
46 46 Vermont 27.77973
47 47 Virginia 3.601613
48 48 Washington 12.43839
49 49 West Virginia -35.57757
50 50 Wisconsin -3.839976
51 51 Wyoming -49.86651

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CREATE TABLE "partisan-lean/fivethirtyeight_partisan_lean_STATES" (
"state" TEXT,
  "2022" REAL
);