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FiveThirtyEight's Partisan Lean: fivethirtyeight_partisan_lean_DISTRICTS.csv

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This directory contains the data for FiveThirtyEight's partisan lean metric, or the average margin difference between how a state or district votes and how the country votes overall. Positive numbers mean Democratic leans, while negative numbers mean Republican leans.

This version of partisan lean, meant to be used for congressional and gubernatorial elections, is calculated as 50 percent the state or district’s lean relative to the nation in the most recent presidential election, 25 percent its relative lean in the second-most-recent presidential election and 25 percent a custom state-legislative lean based on the statewide popular vote in the four most recent state House elections.

The current partisan leans are meant to be used for the 2022 midterm elections; they take election results through 2021 into account and correspond to the district lines as they stood after the 2021-22 redistricting process. The partisan leans in the “2021” folder were meant to be used for 2021-22 special elections; they take election results through 2020 into account and correspond to the district lines for the 117th Congress, before redistricting took place. Past partisan leans for the 2018 and 2020 election cycles are also available. Due to redistricting and changes in methodology, partisan leans are not comparable across years.

Column Description
state/district The state or district the partisan lean is calculated for.
2022 Partisan lean index for the 2022 midterm elections, taking election results through 2021 into account and corresponding to post-redistricting congressional maps.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette

435 rows

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Link rowid ▼ district 2022
1 1 AK-1 -14.6111
2 2 AL-1 -31.6703
3 3 AL-2 -33.47084
4 4 AL-3 -39.00137
5 5 AL-4 -64.80537
6 6 AL-5 -32.03314
7 7 AL-6 -35.87194
8 8 AL-7 28.7539
9 9 AR-1 -43.32125
10 10 AR-2 -16.87272
11 11 AR-3 -28.57066
12 12 AR-4 -38.83622
13 13 AZ-1 -6.512875
14 14 AZ-2 -15.10014
15 15 AZ-3 44.18386
16 16 AZ-4 1.464125
17 17 AZ-5 -23.90548
18 18 AZ-6 -6.932475
19 19 AZ-7 27.01756
20 20 AZ-8 -21.53168
21 21 AZ-9 -33.10751
22 22 CA-1 -24.24
23 23 CA-2 44.6589
24 24 CA-3 -7.48173
25 25 CA-4 31.46477
26 26 CA-5 -16.82833
27 27 CA-6 14.1761
28 28 CA-7 33.91067
29 29 CA-8 50.61904
30 30 CA-9 8.710836
31 31 CA-10 34.2542
32 32 CA-11 71.46574
33 33 CA-12 76.76467
34 34 CA-13 7.451671
35 35 CA-14 41.99284
36 36 CA-15 54.17324
37 37 CA-16 49.6167
38 38 CA-17 45.6632
39 39 CA-18 41.7609
40 40 CA-19 35.66684
41 41 CA-20 -30.45263
42 42 CA-21 16.22807
43 43 CA-22 10.3146
44 44 CA-23 -15.2223
45 45 CA-24 23.94737
46 46 CA-25 12.1035
47 47 CA-26 15.22424
48 48 CA-27 7.75737
49 49 CA-28 30.3726
50 50 CA-29 50.88554
51 51 CA-30 44.7397
52 52 CA-31 29.31257
53 53 CA-32 38.44873
54 54 CA-33 23.13004
55 55 CA-34 63.6506
56 56 CA-35 26.4464
57 57 CA-36 40.48007
58 58 CA-37 72.13327
59 59 CA-38 28.38617
60 60 CA-39 23.33524
61 61 CA-40 -3.841196
62 62 CA-41 -6.348963
63 63 CA-42 43.72557
64 64 CA-43 63.03647
65 65 CA-44 47.29814
66 66 CA-45 4.789704
67 67 CA-46 29.68361
68 68 CA-47 6.151937
69 69 CA-48 -18.60836
70 70 CA-49 5.716237
71 71 CA-50 27.5448
72 72 CA-51 22.2579
73 73 CA-52 36.35247
74 74 CO-1 55.20527
75 75 CO-2 32.81107
76 76 CO-3 -14.34963
77 77 CO-4 -25.3082
78 78 CO-5 -17.88243
79 79 CO-6 16.72773
80 80 CO-7 5.924933
81 81 CO-8 -2.542467
82 82 CT-1 20.56025
83 83 CT-2 2.942917
84 84 CT-3 11.91095
85 85 CT-4 23.32058
86 86 CT-5 2.564117
87 87 DE-1 13.92317
88 88 FL-1 -37.97575
89 89 FL-2 -16.45658
90 90 FL-3 -18.11241
91 91 FL-4 -15.25688
92 92 FL-5 -23.23915
93 93 FL-6 -27.74971
94 94 FL-7 -13.93371
95 95 FL-8 -22.96675
96 96 FL-9 15.97086
97 97 FL-10 29.01435
98 98 FL-11 -19.28234
99 99 FL-12 -33.99388
100 100 FL-13 -12.16665

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CREATE TABLE "partisan-lean/fivethirtyeight_partisan_lean_DISTRICTS" (
"district" TEXT,
  "2022" REAL
);
Powered by Datasette · Queries took 1441.71ms · Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette