pollster-ratings/2018/pollster-ratings
Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette
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Suggested facets: NCPP / AAPOR / Roper, Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones, Methodology, Banned by 538, 538 Grade, Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus
Link | rowid | Pollster | # of Polls | NCPP / AAPOR / Roper | Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones | Methodology | Banned by 538 | Historical Advanced Plus-Minus | Predictive Plus-Minus | 538 Grade | Mean-Reverted Bias | Races Called Correctly | Misses Outside MOE | Simple Average Error | Simple Expected Error ▼ | Simple Plus-Minus | Advanced Plus-Minus | Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus | Predictive Plus-Minus | # of Polls for Bias Analysis | Bias | Mean-Reverted Bias.1 | House Effect |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
362 | 362 | Zia Poll | 3 | no | no | IVR | no | 4.0 | 1.1 | C | R +0.4 | 100% | 33% | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 4.0 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 3 | R +4.9 | R +0.4 | R +3.3 |
265 | 265 | RAND (American Life Panel) | 4 | no | no | Online | no | -0.1 | 0.7 | C+ | D +0.2 | 100% | 25% | 2.7 | 3.2 | -0.5 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 4 | D +1.4 | D +0.2 | D +3.8 |
287 | 287 | People's Pundit Daily | 3 | no | no | Online | yes | 0.4 | 0.7 | F | R +0.3 | 33% | 33% | 3.0 | 3.2 | -0.2 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 3 | R +3.0 | R +0.3 | R +4.8 |
333 | 333 | USC Dornsife/LA Times | 3 | no | no | Online | no | 2.0 | 0.9 | C | R +0.4 | 33% | 67% | 4.1 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 3 | R +4.1 | R +0.4 | R +5.9 |
192 | 192 | CVOTER International | 5 | no | no | Online | no | -1.5 | 0.5 | B- | R +0.3 | 100% | 0% | 2.1 | 3.3 | -1.2 | -1.5 | -0.2 | 0.5 | 5 | R +1.8 | R +0.3 | R +0.3 |
346 | 346 | Saguaro Strategies | 2 | no | no | Online | no | 3.6 | 0.9 | C | D +0.3 | 0% | 100% | 5.0 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 3.6 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 2 | D +5.0 | D +0.3 | D +4.1 |
25 | 25 | IBD/TIPP | 21 | no | yes | Live | no | -1.5 | -0.5 | A- | R +0.8 | 71% | 5% | 2.2 | 3.7 | -1.5 | -1.5 | -0.6 | -0.5 | 21 | R +1.9 | R +0.8 | R +1.4 |
320 | 320 | Polling Company/Global Strategy Group (Hotline Bullseye) | 3 | no | no | Live* | no | 1.6 | 0.8 | C | R +0.4 | 33% | 33% | 4.6 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 3 | R +4.6 | R +0.4 | R +3.1 |
350 | 350 | Remington Research Group | 32 | no | no | IVR/Live | no | 0.8 | 1.0 | C | D +1.1 | 67% | 31% | 4.9 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 32 | D +2.1 | D +1.1 | R +1.9 |
195 | 195 | Lucid | 14 | no | no | Online | no | -0.4 | 0.5 | B- | D +0.8 | 100% | 14% | 2.6 | 3.8 | -1.2 | -0.4 | -0.1 | 0.5 | 14 | D +2.4 | D +0.8 | D +1.8 |
310 | 310 | Harris Interactive | 135 | yes | no | Online | no | 0.8 | 0.8 | C+ | R +1.5 | 86% | 53% | 5.5 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 135 | R +1.9 | R +1.5 | D +0.9 |
358 | 358 | Google Surveys | 24 | yes | no | Online | no | 1.9 | 1.0 | C | R +0.1 | 92% | 38% | 5.3 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 24 | R +0.2 | R +0.1 | R +0.7 |
30 | 30 | SSRS | 5 | yes | yes | Live | no | -1.5 | -0.4 | A- | R +0.1 | 20% | 20% | 3.1 | 4.1 | -1.0 | -1.5 | -0.2 | -0.4 | 5 | R +0.5 | R +0.1 | D +1.0 |
139 | 139 | Pew Research Center | 21 | yes | no | Online/Live | no | 0.3 | 0.3 | B- | D +0.6 | 60% | 29% | 3.5 | 4.1 | -0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 21 | D +1.5 | D +0.6 | D +0.9 |
143 | 143 | CallFire | 4 | no | yes | Live | no | 0.4 | 0.3 | B- | R +0.5 | 75% | 0% | 3.9 | 4.1 | -0.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 4 | R +3.9 | R +0.5 | R +0.4 |
187 | 187 | Morning Consult | 8 | no | no | Online | no | -1.0 | 0.5 | B- | D +0.6 | 63% | 13% | 2.7 | 4.1 | -1.3 | -1.0 | -0.2 | 0.5 | 8 | D +2.7 | D +0.6 | D +0.5 |
213 | 213 | M4 Strategies | 2 | no | no | Online | no | -5.4 | 0.6 | C+ | R +0.2 | 100% | 50% | 3.1 | 4.1 | -1.0 | -5.4 | -0.3 | 0.6 | 2 | R +3.1 | R +0.2 | D +4.8 |
51 | 51 | Winthrop University | 1 | yes | yes | Live | no | -3.9 | -0.2 | B+ | D +0.0 | 100% | 0% | 0.2 | 4.2 | -4.0 | -3.9 | -0.1 | -0.2 | 1 | D +0.2 | D +0.0 | R +0.9 |
120 | 120 | Starboard Communications | 1 | no | yes | Live | no | -4.9 | 0.2 | B | D +0.1 | 100% | 0% | 3.3 | 4.2 | -0.9 | -4.9 | -0.2 | 0.2 | 1 | D +3.3 | D +0.1 | R +7.3 |
211 | 211 | Purple Strategies | 4 | no | no | Online | no | -0.9 | 0.6 | C+ | R +0.4 | 88% | 0% | 3.0 | 4.2 | -1.2 | -0.9 | -0.1 | 0.6 | 4 | R +3.0 | R +0.4 | R +0.0 |
212 | 212 | Strategic National | 2 | no | no | IVR | no | -5.7 | 0.6 | C+ | D +0.0 | 25% | 0% | 0.7 | 4.2 | -3.5 | -5.7 | -0.4 | 0.6 | 2 | D +0.7 | D +0.0 | R +4.8 |
197 | 197 | Clarity Campaign Labs | 10 | no | no | IVR/Live | no | -0.5 | 0.5 | B- | D +0.9 | 45% | 20% | 3.6 | 4.3 | -0.7 | -0.5 | -0.1 | 0.5 | 10 | D +3.6 | D +0.9 | D +0.8 |
204 | 204 | BK Strategies | 3 | no | no | IVR | no | -1.8 | 0.5 | C+ | D +0.3 | 67% | 33% | 3.8 | 4.3 | -0.5 | -1.8 | -0.2 | 0.5 | 3 | D +3.6 | D +0.3 | R +2.9 |
241 | 241 | BIGresearch | 1 | no | no | Online | no | -3.5 | 0.7 | C+ | D +0.1 | 100% | 0% | 2.0 | 4.3 | -2.3 | -3.5 | -0.1 | 0.7 | 1 | D +2.0 | D +0.1 | D +7.5 |
284 | 284 | Change Research | 7 | no | no | Online | no | 0.3 | 0.7 | C+ | R +0.8 | 57% | 43% | 4.9 | 4.3 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 7 | R +4.2 | R +0.8 | D +0.0 |
322 | 322 | Strategy Research | 1 | no | no | IVR | no | 3.9 | 0.9 | C | R +0.3 | 0% | 100% | 8.6 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 1 | R +8.6 | R +0.3 | R +4.7 |
329 | 329 | TargetSmart/William & Mary | 3 | no | no | Online/Live | no | 1.8 | 0.9 | C | D +0.5 | 67% | 33% | 5.3 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 3 | D +5.3 | D +0.5 | D +1.7 |
154 | 154 | Hoffman Research Group | 1 | no | yes | Live | no | 1.6 | 0.4 | B- | R +0.2 | 100% | 0% | 7.1 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 1 | R +7.1 | R +0.2 | R +0.4 |
348 | 348 | McCulloch Research & Polling | 4 | no | no | Live* | no | 2.3 | 1.0 | C | R +0.6 | 75% | 50% | 7.0 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 4 | R +5.5 | R +0.6 | R +3.7 |
351 | 351 | Anderson Group | 1 | no | no | Live* | no | 7.6 | 1.0 | C | R +0.4 | 0% | 100% | 10.9 | 4.4 | 6.5 | 7.6 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 1 | R +10.9 | R +0.4 | R +5.0 |
395 | 395 | SurveyMonkey | 206 | no | no | Online | no | 2.3 | 2.4 | D- | D +4.9 | 83% | 51% | 7.5 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 193 | D +5.6 | D +4.9 | D +3.2 |
42 | 42 | High Point University | 2 | yes | yes | Live | no | -4.6 | -0.3 | B+ | D +0.0 | 100% | 0% | 1.0 | 4.5 | -3.5 | -4.6 | -0.3 | -0.3 | 2 | D +0.1 | D +0.0 | D +1.8 |
72 | 72 | Keating Research Inc. | 5 | no | yes | Live | no | -1.8 | 0.0 | B | D +0.1 | 80% | 0% | 2.4 | 4.5 | -2.1 | -1.8 | -0.3 | 0.0 | 5 | D +0.9 | D +0.1 | D +3.0 |
126 | 126 | George Washington University (Battleground) | 31 | no | yes | Live | no | 0.2 | 0.3 | B | R +1.0 | 55% | 19% | 3.5 | 4.5 | -0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 31 | R +1.9 | R +1.0 | R +2.0 |
282 | 282 | Star Tribune | 13 | no | yes | Live | no | 1.7 | 0.7 | C+ | D +1.5 | 46% | 38% | 6.3 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 11 | D +5.5 | D +1.5 | D +3.9 |
283 | 283 | MarblePort | 2 | no | no | IVR | no | 0.2 | 0.7 | C+ | R +0.3 | 100% | 0% | 5.6 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 2 | R +5.6 | R +0.3 | R +4.4 |
297 | 297 | Hampton University | 4 | no | yes | Live | no | 4.2 | 0.8 | C+ | R +0.7 | 50% | 50% | 7.5 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 4 | R +5.8 | R +0.7 | R +6.7 |
307 | 307 | IMGE Insights | 1 | no | no | IVR/Live | no | 2.6 | 0.8 | C+ | R +0.3 | 100% | 100% | 7.9 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 1 | R +7.9 | R +0.3 | R +2.3 |
330 | 330 | SMS Research & Marketing Services Inc. | 1 | no | no | Live* | no | 4.4 | 0.9 | C | R +0.3 | 0% | 100% | 9.8 | 4.5 | 5.2 | 4.4 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 1 | R +9.8 | R +0.3 | R +0.3 |
396 | 396 | TCJ Research | 133 | no | no | IVR | yes | 2.8 | 2.8 | F | R +4.5 | 59% | 49% | 6.4 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 125 | R +5.6 | R +4.5 | R +3.5 |
4 | 4 | ABC News/Washington Post | 60 | yes | yes | Live | no | -1.3 | -1.1 | A+ | D +0.6 | 78% | 5% | 2.9 | 4.6 | -1.8 | -1.3 | -0.9 | -1.1 | 55 | D +0.9 | D +0.6 | D +1.5 |
58 | 58 | Data Orbital | 7 | no | yes | Live | no | -2.6 | -0.1 | B+ | D +0.1 | 100% | 0% | 1.8 | 4.6 | -2.8 | -2.6 | -0.5 | -0.1 | 7 | D +0.4 | D +0.1 | R +2.6 |
92 | 92 | Richmond Times-Dispatch | 4 | no | yes | Live | no | -1.1 | 0.1 | B | D +0.3 | 100% | 0% | 3.3 | 4.6 | -1.3 | -1.1 | -0.1 | 0.1 | 4 | D +2.9 | D +0.3 | D +2.4 |
124 | 124 | Cygnal | 2 | no | yes | Live | no | -0.7 | 0.2 | B | D +0.3 | 100% | 0% | 5.2 | 4.6 | 0.6 | -0.7 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 2 | D +5.2 | D +0.3 | R +3.4 |
278 | 278 | Columbus Dispatch | 20 | no | no | no | 0.3 | 0.7 | C+ | D +1.3 | 93% | 45% | 4.9 | 4.6 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 17 | D +3.6 | D +1.3 | D +3.4 | |
292 | 292 | Kimball Political Consulting | 4 | no | yes | Live | no | 4.1 | 0.7 | C+ | R +1.0 | 75% | 75% | 8.1 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 4 | R +8.1 | R +1.0 | R +4.5 |
384 | 384 | Valley Research | 6 | no | no | Live* | no | 5.0 | 1.5 | D+ | D +0.4 | 83% | 50% | 11.5 | 4.6 | 6.9 | 5.0 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 6 | D +2.4 | D +0.4 | D +1.4 |
28 | 28 | Elon University | 7 | yes | yes | Live | no | -1.2 | -0.4 | A- | D +0.5 | 50% | 0% | 3.2 | 4.7 | -1.4 | -1.2 | -0.2 | -0.4 | 7 | D +2.7 | D +0.5 | D +1.1 |
69 | 69 | Christopher Newport University | 7 | no | yes | Live | no | -1.5 | 0.0 | B+ | D +0.5 | 100% | 14% | 3.9 | 4.7 | -0.8 | -1.5 | -0.3 | 0.0 | 7 | D +2.6 | D +0.5 | D +1.2 |
102 | 102 | Knowledge Networks | 3 | yes | no | Online | no | -1.1 | 0.2 | B | R +0.4 | 100% | 33% | 4.1 | 4.7 | -0.6 | -1.1 | -0.1 | 0.2 | 3 | R +4.1 | R +0.4 | R +1.0 |
108 | 108 | Insights West | 9 | no | no | Online | no | -2.5 | 0.2 | B | R +0.1 | 94% | 0% | 2.5 | 4.7 | -2.2 | -2.5 | -0.6 | 0.2 | 8 | R +0.4 | R +0.1 | R +0.9 |
321 | 321 | Decision Forecasting | 3 | no | no | Live* | no | 1.6 | 0.8 | C | R +0.1 | 100% | 67% | 8.1 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 3 | R +1.4 | R +0.1 | D +0.5 |
338 | 338 | Big Ten | 10 | no | no | Live* | no | 1.0 | 0.9 | C | D +1.1 | 100% | 20% | 4.8 | 4.7 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 10 | D +4.5 | D +1.1 | D +5.5 |
63 | 63 | Ipsos | 56 | yes | no | Online | no | -0.3 | -0.1 | B+ | D +0.6 | 75% | 18% | 4.4 | 4.8 | -0.4 | -0.3 | -0.2 | -0.1 | 50 | D +1.0 | D +0.6 | D +1.3 |
90 | 90 | GfK Group | 21 | yes | no | Online | no | -0.1 | 0.1 | B | D +0.3 | 88% | 19% | 3.9 | 4.8 | -0.9 | -0.1 | -0.1 | 0.1 | 21 | D +0.6 | D +0.3 | D +1.2 |
140 | 140 | University of Denver | 2 | no | yes | Live | no | 0.1 | 0.3 | B- | R +0.1 | 100% | 0% | 3.4 | 4.8 | -1.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 2 | R +1.0 | R +0.1 | R +0.4 |
142 | 142 | Financial Dynamics | 15 | no | no | Live* | no | -0.9 | 0.3 | B- | R +0.7 | 100% | 0% | 2.8 | 4.8 | -2.0 | -0.9 | -0.3 | 0.3 | 15 | R +2.0 | R +0.7 | R +2.1 |
184 | 184 | Scripps Howard | 4 | no | no | Live* | no | -2.2 | 0.5 | B- | R +0.1 | 100% | 25% | 3.8 | 4.8 | -1.0 | -2.2 | -0.3 | 0.5 | 4 | R +0.6 | R +0.1 | R +2.3 |
190 | 190 | OnPoint | 4 | no | no | IVR | no | -1.9 | 0.5 | B- | D +0.2 | 100% | 0% | 1.7 | 4.8 | -3.1 | -1.9 | -0.2 | 0.5 | 4 | D +1.6 | D +0.2 | D +2.3 |
214 | 214 | Louis Harris & Associates | 2 | no | no | Live* | no | -4.5 | 0.6 | C+ | D +0.1 | 100% | 0% | 0.9 | 4.8 | -3.9 | -4.5 | -0.3 | 0.6 | 2 | D +0.9 | D +0.1 | D +4.6 |
219 | 219 | Forward Strategies | 2 | no | no | IVR | no | -2.7 | 0.6 | C+ | D +0.1 | 100% | 0% | 1.3 | 4.8 | -3.5 | -2.7 | -0.2 | 0.6 | 2 | D +1.3 | D +0.1 | D +3.4 |
234 | 234 | University of Tennessee | 1 | no | no | Live* | no | -5.3 | 0.7 | C+ | R +0.1 | 100% | 0% | 2.7 | 4.8 | -2.0 | -5.3 | -0.2 | 0.7 | 1 | R +2.7 | R +0.1 | R +5.4 |
306 | 306 | CrossTarget | 2 | no | no | IVR | no | 1.5 | 0.8 | C+ | R +0.5 | 100% | 50% | 7.7 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 2 | R +7.7 | R +0.5 | R +13.3 |
382 | 382 | Saint Leo University | 4 | no | no | Online | no | 5.6 | 1.4 | C- | D +0.9 | 50% | 50% | 7.6 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 5.6 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 4 | D +7.6 | D +0.9 | D +5.7 |
31 | 31 | Angus Reid Global | 30 | no | no | Online | no | -1.9 | -0.4 | A- | R +1.3 | 93% | 3% | 3.2 | 4.9 | -1.7 | -1.9 | -0.9 | -0.4 | 30 | R +2.6 | R +1.3 | D +0.9 |
52 | 52 | University of Florida | 1 | yes | yes | Live | no | -2.0 | -0.2 | B+ | D +0.0 | 50% | 0% | 1.1 | 4.9 | -3.8 | -2.0 | -0.1 | -0.2 | 1 | D +1.1 | D +0.0 | R +0.9 |
70 | 70 | Pharos Research Group | 31 | no | yes | Live | yes | -0.3 | 0.0 | F | D +0.9 | 92% | 16% | 4.0 | 4.9 | -0.9 | -0.3 | -0.2 | 0.0 | 31 | D +1.7 | D +0.9 | D +0.9 |
89 | 89 | Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Corp. | 34 | yes | no | Live* | no | -0.1 | 0.1 | B | R +0.5 | 72% | 9% | 3.9 | 4.9 | -1.0 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 28 | R +1.0 | R +0.5 | R +1.6 |
94 | 94 | New England College | 15 | no | no | IVR | no | -1.4 | 0.2 | B | R +0.6 | 77% | 0% | 3.0 | 4.9 | -1.9 | -1.4 | -0.5 | 0.2 | 15 | R +1.9 | R +0.6 | R +3.5 |
99 | 99 | Tulchin Research | 2 | no | yes | Live | no | -3.0 | 0.2 | B | R +0.2 | 100% | 0% | 3.5 | 4.9 | -1.5 | -3.0 | -0.2 | 0.2 | 2 | R +3.5 | R +0.2 | D +3.2 |
110 | 110 | Gallup | 79 | yes | yes | Live | no | 0.5 | 0.2 | B | R +0.9 | 71% | 29% | 4.3 | 4.9 | -0.6 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 65 | R +1.3 | R +0.9 | R +1.6 |
135 | 135 | Centre College | 1 | no | yes | Live | no | -0.7 | 0.3 | B- | D +0.1 | 100% | 0% | 3.9 | 4.9 | -1.0 | -0.7 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 1 | D +3.9 | D +0.1 | D +2.3 |
173 | 173 | Florida Poll | 6 | no | yes | Live | no | 1.1 | 0.4 | B- | D +0.6 | 67% | 0% | 4.6 | 4.9 | -0.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 6 | D +3.3 | D +0.6 | D +1.6 |
243 | 243 | Central Surveys Inc. | 1 | no | no | Live* | no | -3.1 | 0.7 | C+ | D +0.1 | 0% | 0% | 1.7 | 4.9 | -3.2 | -3.1 | -0.1 | 0.7 | 1 | D +1.7 | D +0.1 | D +2.3 |
263 | 263 | Triumph Campaigns | 1 | no | no | IVR | no | -1.5 | 0.7 | C+ | R +0.1 | 100% | 0% | 4.2 | 4.9 | -0.6 | -1.5 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 1 | R +4.2 | R +0.1 | R +5.0 |
270 | 270 | Ohio State University | 1 | no | no | Live* | no | -1.0 | 0.7 | C+ | R +0.1 | 100% | 0% | 3.7 | 4.9 | -1.2 | -1.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 1 | R +3.7 | R +0.1 | R +7.3 |
363 | 363 | Rainmaker Media Group | 1 | no | no | Live* | no | 10.8 | 1.1 | C | D +0.4 | 100% | 100% | 12.7 | 4.9 | 7.8 | 10.8 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 1 | D +12.7 | D +0.4 | D +8.6 |
365 | 365 | Clout Research/Wenzel Strategies | 12 | no | yes | Live | no | 3.1 | 1.1 | C | R +1.7 | 50% | 50% | 7.7 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 11 | R +6.3 | R +1.7 | R +4.5 |
386 | 386 | Dane & Associates | 2 | no | no | IVR | no | 13.8 | 1.6 | D+ | R +1.3 | 50% | 100% | 21.2 | 4.9 | 16.3 | 13.8 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 2 | R +21.2 | R +1.3 | R +10.5 |
394 | 394 | Nielson Brothers Polling | 9 | no | no | IVR | no | 7.1 | 2.3 | D- | D +2.8 | 89% | 67% | 12.2 | 4.9 | 7.3 | 7.1 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 9 | D +12.2 | D +2.8 | D +9.9 |
46 | 46 | Princeton Survey Research Associates International | 33 | yes | yes | Live | no | 0.0 | -0.2 | B+ | D +0.3 | 70% | 27% | 4.8 | 5.0 | -0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.2 | 31 | D +0.5 | D +0.3 | R +0.2 |
56 | 56 | Market Research Insight | 7 | no | yes | Live | no | -4.6 | -0.1 | B+ | D +0.1 | 100% | 0% | 1.8 | 5.0 | -3.2 | -4.6 | -0.9 | -0.1 | 7 | D +0.3 | D +0.1 | D +2.0 |
80 | 80 | Global Strategy Group/National Research (Philadelphia Inquirer) | 4 | no | yes | Live | no | -1.6 | 0.1 | B | R +0.3 | 100% | 0% | 3.0 | 5.0 | -2.0 | -1.6 | -0.2 | 0.1 | 4 | R +2.7 | R +0.3 | D +0.1 |
81 | 81 | Strategic Vision LLC | 129 | no | no | Live* | yes | -0.4 | 0.1 | F | R +1.9 | 88% | 16% | 4.0 | 5.0 | -1.0 | -0.4 | -0.4 | 0.1 | 106 | R +2.4 | R +1.9 | R +2.3 |
130 | 130 | Associated Industries of Florida | 2 | no | yes | Live | no | -0.4 | 0.3 | B- | D +0.2 | 50% | 0% | 3.4 | 5.0 | -1.5 | -0.4 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 2 | D +3.4 | D +0.2 | D +1.0 |
136 | 136 | Bendixen & Amandi International | 2 | no | yes | Live | no | -0.1 | 0.3 | B- | D +0.1 | 100% | 0% | 3.0 | 5.0 | -1.9 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 2 | D +1.6 | D +0.1 | D +3.0 |
145 | 145 | Virginia Commonwealth University | 5 | no | yes | Live | no | 0.5 | 0.3 | B- | R +0.3 | 100% | 20% | 4.9 | 5.0 | -0.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 5 | R +1.9 | R +0.3 | R +1.7 |
150 | 150 | Ethridge & Associates LLC | 6 | no | no | Live* | no | -2.4 | 0.3 | B- | R +0.1 | 83% | 0% | 2.7 | 5.0 | -2.4 | -2.4 | -0.4 | 0.3 | 6 | R +0.7 | R +0.1 | R +3.4 |
151 | 151 | NPR | 3 | no | yes | Live | no | 0.8 | 0.4 | B- | D +0.1 | 17% | 33% | 5.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 3 | D +1.0 | D +0.1 | D +1.0 |
157 | 157 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (Democracy Corps) | 50 | no | yes | Live | no | 0.3 | 0.4 | B- | D +2.4 | 51% | 20% | 4.4 | 5.0 | -0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 49 | D +3.9 | D +2.4 | D +3.5 |
165 | 165 | St. Pete Polls | 5 | no | no | IVR | no | -3.3 | 0.4 | B- | D +0.1 | 70% | 0% | 1.4 | 5.0 | -3.6 | -3.3 | -0.5 | 0.4 | 5 | D +0.7 | D +0.1 | D +0.3 |
246 | 246 | Singularis Group | 1 | no | no | IVR | no | -2.9 | 0.7 | C+ | R +0.0 | 100% | 0% | 0.8 | 5.0 | -4.2 | -2.9 | -0.1 | 0.7 | 1 | R +0.8 | R +0.0 | D +2.0 |
281 | 281 | Gravis Marketing | 108 | no | no | IVR/Online | no | 0.3 | 0.7 | C+ | D +0.6 | 67% | 32% | 5.2 | 5.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 82 | D +0.9 | D +0.6 | R +0.9 |
335 | 335 | Maine People's Resource Center | 8 | no | no | IVR/Online | no | 1.1 | 0.9 | C | D +0.3 | 88% | 25% | 7.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 7 | D +1.7 | D +0.3 | R +2.0 |
368 | 368 | University of Alabama | 2 | no | no | Live* | no | 6.2 | 1.1 | C | R +0.8 | 100% | 50% | 12.0 | 5.0 | 7.0 | 6.2 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 2 | R +12.0 | R +0.8 | R +7.0 |
370 | 370 | Ohio University | 2 | no | no | Live* | no | 6.6 | 1.1 | C- | D +0.5 | 50% | 50% | 8.8 | 5.0 | 3.8 | 6.6 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 2 | D +8.8 | D +0.5 | D +8.1 |
10 | 10 | Grove Insight | 29 | no | yes | Live | no | -2.3 | -0.8 | A | D +0.5 | 90% | 7% | 3.1 | 5.1 | -2.0 | -2.3 | -1.1 | -0.8 | 29 | D +1.0 | D +0.5 | D +3.4 |
34 | 34 | NBC News/Wall Street Journal | 27 | yes | yes | Live | no | -0.2 | -0.3 | A- | D +0.8 | 72% | 15% | 4.2 | 5.1 | -0.9 | -0.2 | -0.1 | -0.3 | 22 | D +1.9 | D +0.8 | D +1.4 |
61 | 61 | University of Washington | 9 | no | yes | Live | no | -1.4 | -0.1 | B+ | D +0.1 | 100% | 0% | 3.7 | 5.1 | -1.4 | -1.4 | -0.3 | -0.1 | 9 | D +0.3 | D +0.1 | D +3.4 |
78 | 78 | YouGov | 375 | no | no | Online | no | -0.4 | 0.1 | B | D +0.3 | 88% | 25% | 5.0 | 5.1 | -0.1 | -0.4 | -0.3 | 0.1 | 327 | D +0.3 | D +0.3 | D +0.3 |
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CREATE TABLE "pollster-ratings/2018/pollster-ratings" ( "Pollster" TEXT, "# of Polls" INTEGER, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper" TEXT, "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones" TEXT, "Methodology" TEXT, "Banned by 538" TEXT, "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus" REAL, "Predictive Plus-Minus" REAL, "538 Grade" TEXT, "Mean-Reverted Bias" TEXT, "Races Called Correctly" TEXT, "Misses Outside MOE" TEXT, "Simple Average Error" REAL, "Simple Expected Error" REAL, "Simple Plus-Minus" REAL, "Advanced Plus-Minus" REAL, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus" REAL, "Predictive Plus-Minus" REAL, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis" INTEGER, "Bias" TEXT, "Mean-Reverted Bias.1" TEXT, "House Effect" TEXT );