{"rowid": 1, "Pollster": "Selzer & Co.", "# of Polls": 43, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "yes", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "yes", "Methodology": "Live", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -1.9, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -1.4, "538 Grade": "A+", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "R +0.0", "Races Called Correctly": "86%", "Misses Outside MOE": "21%", "Simple Average Error": 4.2, "Simple Expected Error": 5.6, "Simple Plus-Minus": -1.4, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -1.9, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -1.1, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -1.4, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 30, "Bias": "R +0.0", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "R +0.0", "House Effect": "D +0.1"} {"rowid": 2, "Pollster": "Monmouth University", "# of Polls": 95, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "yes", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "yes", "Methodology": "Live", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -1.5, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -1.3, "538 Grade": "A+", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "D +1.4", "Races Called Correctly": "80%", "Misses Outside MOE": "17%", "Simple Average Error": 5.3, "Simple Expected Error": 6.2, "Simple Plus-Minus": -0.8, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -1.5, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -1.1, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -1.3, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 65, "Bias": "D +2.1", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "D +1.4", "House Effect": "R +0.7"} {"rowid": 3, "Pollster": "Field Research Corp. (Field Poll)", "# of Polls": 25, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "yes", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "yes", "Methodology": "Live", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -2.5, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -1.1, "538 Grade": "A+", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "R +1.2", "Races Called Correctly": "100%", "Misses Outside MOE": "16%", "Simple Average Error": 3.9, "Simple Expected Error": 5.7, "Simple Plus-Minus": -1.8, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -2.5, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -1.1, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -1.1, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 18, "Bias": "R +3.3", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "R +1.2", "House Effect": "D +0.6"} {"rowid": 4, "Pollster": "ABC News/Washington Post", "# of Polls": 60, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "yes", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "yes", "Methodology": "Live", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -1.3, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -1.1, "538 Grade": "A+", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "D +0.6", "Races Called Correctly": "78%", "Misses Outside MOE": "5%", "Simple Average Error": 2.9, "Simple Expected Error": 4.6, "Simple Plus-Minus": -1.8, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -1.3, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.9, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -1.1, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 55, "Bias": "D +0.9", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "D +0.6", "House Effect": "D +1.5"} {"rowid": 5, "Pollster": "Elway Research", "# of Polls": 21, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "yes", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "yes", "Methodology": "Live", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -2.2, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -1.1, "538 Grade": "A+", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "D +0.5", "Races Called Correctly": "90%", "Misses Outside MOE": "5%", "Simple Average Error": 3.9, "Simple Expected Error": 5.9, "Simple Plus-Minus": -1.9, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -2.2, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.9, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -1.1, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 20, "Bias": "D +1.2", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "D +0.5", "House Effect": "D +3.2"} {"rowid": 6, "Pollster": "Ciruli Associates", "# of Polls": 17, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "yes", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "yes", "Methodology": "Live", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -2.1, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -1.0, "538 Grade": "A+", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "R +0.7", "Races Called Correctly": "94%", "Misses Outside MOE": "0%", "Simple Average Error": 3.6, "Simple Expected Error": 5.6, "Simple Plus-Minus": -2.0, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -2.1, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.7, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -1.0, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 16, "Bias": "R +2.1", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "R +0.7", "House Effect": "R +2.5"} {"rowid": 7, "Pollster": "SurveyUSA", "# of Polls": 777, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "yes", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "no", "Methodology": "IVR/Online/Live", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -1.1, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.9, "538 Grade": "A", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "D +0.1", "Races Called Correctly": "90%", "Misses Outside MOE": "16%", "Simple Average Error": 4.6, "Simple Expected Error": 5.6, "Simple Plus-Minus": -1.0, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -1.1, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -1.0, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.9, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 615, "Bias": "D +0.1", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "D +0.1", "House Effect": "R +0.3"} {"rowid": 8, "Pollster": "Muhlenberg College", "# of Polls": 26, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "yes", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "yes", "Methodology": "Live", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -1.3, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.9, "538 Grade": "A", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "R +0.2", "Races Called Correctly": "83%", "Misses Outside MOE": "8%", "Simple Average Error": 3.5, "Simple Expected Error": 5.3, "Simple Plus-Minus": -1.9, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -1.3, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.6, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.9, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 25, "Bias": "R +0.5", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "R +0.2", "House Effect": "D +0.0"} {"rowid": 9, "Pollster": "Marist College", "# of Polls": 159, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "yes", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "yes", "Methodology": "Live", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -0.9, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.9, "538 Grade": "A", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "R +0.5", "Races Called Correctly": "85%", "Misses Outside MOE": "19%", "Simple Average Error": 5.2, "Simple Expected Error": 6.0, "Simple Plus-Minus": -0.8, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -0.9, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.7, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.9, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 99, "Bias": "R +0.6", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "R +0.5", "House Effect": "D +0.0"} {"rowid": 10, "Pollster": "Grove Insight", "# of Polls": 29, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "no", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "yes", "Methodology": "Live", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -2.3, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.8, "538 Grade": "A", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "D +0.5", "Races Called Correctly": "90%", "Misses Outside MOE": "7%", "Simple Average Error": 3.1, "Simple Expected Error": 5.1, "Simple Plus-Minus": -2.0, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -2.3, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -1.1, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.8, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 29, "Bias": "D +1.0", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "D +0.5", "House Effect": "D +3.4"} {"rowid": 11, "Pollster": "National Journal", "# of Polls": 12, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "yes", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "yes", "Methodology": "Live", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -2.4, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.8, "538 Grade": "A", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "R +0.2", "Races Called Correctly": "100%", "Misses Outside MOE": "0%", "Simple Average Error": 2.6, "Simple Expected Error": 5.3, "Simple Plus-Minus": -2.7, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -2.4, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.7, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.8, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 12, "Bias": "R +0.6", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "R +0.2", "House Effect": "D +0.3"} {"rowid": 12, "Pollster": "Public Policy Institute of California", "# of Polls": 12, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "yes", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "yes", "Methodology": "Live", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -2.0, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.8, "538 Grade": "A", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "R +0.7", "Races Called Correctly": "100%", "Misses Outside MOE": "8%", "Simple Average Error": 4.1, "Simple Expected Error": 6.2, "Simple Plus-Minus": -2.1, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -2.0, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.6, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.8, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 8, "Bias": "R +3.4", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "R +0.7", "House Effect": "R +1.0"} {"rowid": 13, "Pollster": "University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll)", "# of Polls": 38, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "yes", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "yes", "Methodology": "Live", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -1.0, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.8, "538 Grade": "A", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "R +1.5", "Races Called Correctly": "93%", "Misses Outside MOE": "16%", "Simple Average Error": 3.7, "Simple Expected Error": 5.5, "Simple Plus-Minus": -1.8, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -1.0, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.6, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.8, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 29, "Bias": "R +3.0", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "R +1.5", "House Effect": "R +2.3"} {"rowid": 14, "Pollster": "Siena College", "# of Polls": 60, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "yes", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "yes", "Methodology": "Live", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -0.9, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.8, "538 Grade": "A", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "D +0.1", "Races Called Correctly": "82%", "Misses Outside MOE": "15%", "Simple Average Error": 4.9, "Simple Expected Error": 5.3, "Simple Plus-Minus": -0.3, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -0.9, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.6, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.8, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 56, "Bias": "D +0.1", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "D +0.1", "House Effect": "R +0.7"} {"rowid": 15, "Pollster": "Fairleigh Dickinson University (PublicMind)", "# of Polls": 18, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "yes", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "yes", "Methodology": "Live", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -1.4, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.7, "538 Grade": "A", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "D +0.0", "Races Called Correctly": "94%", "Misses Outside MOE": "6%", "Simple Average Error": 4.1, "Simple Expected Error": 5.4, "Simple Plus-Minus": -1.3, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -1.4, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.5, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.7, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 17, "Bias": "D +0.1", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "D +0.0", "House Effect": "D +3.1"} {"rowid": 16, "Pollster": "Fox News/Anderson Robbins Research/Shaw & Co. Research", "# of Polls": 31, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "yes", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "yes", "Methodology": "Live", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -0.9, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.7, "538 Grade": "A", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "D +0.6", "Races Called Correctly": "69%", "Misses Outside MOE": "35%", "Simple Average Error": 5.6, "Simple Expected Error": 6.0, "Simple Plus-Minus": -0.4, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -0.9, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.5, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.7, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 16, "Bias": "D +1.8", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "D +0.6", "House Effect": "D +0.9"} {"rowid": 17, "Pollster": "Marquette University Law School", "# of Polls": 9, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "yes", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "yes", "Methodology": "Live", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -2.5, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.7, "538 Grade": "A", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "D +0.3", "Races Called Correctly": "78%", "Misses Outside MOE": "11%", "Simple Average Error": 3.3, "Simple Expected Error": 5.8, "Simple Plus-Minus": -2.5, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -2.5, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.6, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.7, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 6, "Bias": "D +1.5", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "D +0.3", "House Effect": "R +0.0"} {"rowid": 18, "Pollster": "Research & Polling Inc.", "# of Polls": 27, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "no", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "yes", "Methodology": "Live", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -1.7, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.6, "538 Grade": "A", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "R +0.5", "Races Called Correctly": "85%", "Misses Outside MOE": "7%", "Simple Average Error": 4.3, "Simple Expected Error": 5.6, "Simple Plus-Minus": -1.3, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -1.7, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.8, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.6, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 26, "Bias": "R +1.1", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "R +0.5", "House Effect": "R +1.2"} {"rowid": 19, "Pollster": "Behavior Research Center (Rocky Mountain)", "# of Polls": 7, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "yes", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "yes", "Methodology": "Live", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -2.6, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.6, "538 Grade": "A-", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "D +0.1", "Races Called Correctly": "71%", "Misses Outside MOE": "0%", "Simple Average Error": 3.5, "Simple Expected Error": 6.5, "Simple Plus-Minus": -3.0, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -2.6, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.5, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.6, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 5, "Bias": "D +0.6", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "D +0.1", "House Effect": "R +2.1"} {"rowid": 20, "Pollster": "Blum & Weprin Associates", "# of Polls": 18, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "no", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "yes", "Methodology": "Live", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -2.6, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.6, "538 Grade": "A-", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "R +1.0", "Races Called Correctly": "94%", "Misses Outside MOE": "11%", "Simple Average Error": 4.6, "Simple Expected Error": 5.2, "Simple Plus-Minus": -0.6, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -2.6, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -1.0, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.6, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 16, "Bias": "R +3.0", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "R +1.0", "House Effect": "D +1.2"} {"rowid": 21, "Pollster": "CBS News/New York Times", "# of Polls": 53, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "yes", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "yes", "Methodology": "Live", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -0.5, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.5, "538 Grade": "A-", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "D +0.4", "Races Called Correctly": "76%", "Misses Outside MOE": "17%", "Simple Average Error": 4.6, "Simple Expected Error": 5.3, "Simple Plus-Minus": -0.7, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -0.5, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.3, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.5, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 43, "Bias": "D +0.7", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "D +0.4", "House Effect": "D +1.8"} {"rowid": 22, "Pollster": "University of Arkansas", "# of Polls": 6, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "yes", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "yes", "Methodology": "Live", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -3.1, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.5, "538 Grade": "A-", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "D +0.6", "Races Called Correctly": "100%", "Misses Outside MOE": "0%", "Simple Average Error": 3.8, "Simple Expected Error": 5.3, "Simple Plus-Minus": -1.6, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -3.1, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.5, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.5, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 6, "Bias": "D +3.8", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "D +0.6", "House Effect": "R +3.9"} {"rowid": 23, "Pollster": "University of Connecticut", "# of Polls": 7, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "yes", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "yes", "Methodology": "Live", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -1.7, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.5, "538 Grade": "A-", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "R +0.4", "Races Called Correctly": "93%", "Misses Outside MOE": "0%", "Simple Average Error": 3.6, "Simple Expected Error": 5.5, "Simple Plus-Minus": -1.9, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -1.7, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.3, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.5, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 7, "Bias": "R +1.9", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "R +0.4", "House Effect": "R +2.0"} {"rowid": 24, "Pollster": "Los Angeles Times", "# of Polls": 38, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "yes", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "yes", "Methodology": "Live", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -0.4, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.5, "538 Grade": "A-", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "R +0.4", "Races Called Correctly": "86%", "Misses Outside MOE": "16%", "Simple Average Error": 5.0, "Simple Expected Error": 6.2, "Simple Plus-Minus": -1.2, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -0.4, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.2, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.5, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 23, "Bias": "R +1.0", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "R +0.4", "House Effect": "D +0.7"} {"rowid": 25, "Pollster": "IBD/TIPP", "# of Polls": 21, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "no", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "yes", "Methodology": "Live", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -1.5, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.5, "538 Grade": "A-", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "R +0.8", "Races Called Correctly": "71%", "Misses Outside MOE": "5%", "Simple Average Error": 2.2, "Simple Expected Error": 3.7, "Simple Plus-Minus": -1.5, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -1.5, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.6, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.5, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 21, "Bias": "R +1.9", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "R +0.8", "House Effect": "R +1.4"} {"rowid": 26, "Pollster": "RKM Research and Communications Inc.", "# of Polls": 28, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "no", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "yes", "Methodology": "Live", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -1.3, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.4, "538 Grade": "A-", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "R +0.2", "Races Called Correctly": "88%", "Misses Outside MOE": "18%", "Simple Average Error": 5.3, "Simple Expected Error": 6.2, "Simple Plus-Minus": -0.9, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -1.3, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.6, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.4, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 20, "Bias": "R +0.5", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "R +0.2", "House Effect": "R +1.5"} {"rowid": 27, "Pollster": "MassINC Polling Group", "# of Polls": 14, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "no", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "yes", "Methodology": "Live", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -2.4, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.4, "538 Grade": "A-", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "R +0.4", "Races Called Correctly": "86%", "Misses Outside MOE": "7%", "Simple Average Error": 3.2, "Simple Expected Error": 6.3, "Simple Plus-Minus": -3.1, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -2.4, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.8, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.4, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 10, "Bias": "R +1.7", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "R +0.4", "House Effect": "R +0.9"} {"rowid": 28, "Pollster": "Elon University", "# of Polls": 7, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "yes", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "yes", "Methodology": "Live", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -1.2, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.4, "538 Grade": "A-", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "D +0.5", "Races Called Correctly": "50%", "Misses Outside MOE": "0%", "Simple Average Error": 3.2, "Simple Expected Error": 4.7, "Simple Plus-Minus": -1.4, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -1.2, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.2, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.4, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 7, "Bias": "D +2.7", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "D +0.5", "House Effect": "D +1.1"} {"rowid": 29, "Pollster": "Quinnipiac University", "# of Polls": 195, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "yes", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "yes", "Methodology": "Live", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -0.3, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.4, "538 Grade": "A-", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "D +0.1", "Races Called Correctly": "85%", "Misses Outside MOE": "23%", "Simple Average Error": 4.6, "Simple Expected Error": 5.5, "Simple Plus-Minus": -0.9, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -0.3, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.3, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.4, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 143, "Bias": "D +0.1", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "D +0.1", "House Effect": "D +0.5"} {"rowid": 30, "Pollster": "SSRS", "# of Polls": 5, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "yes", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "yes", "Methodology": "Live", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -1.5, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.4, "538 Grade": "A-", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "R +0.1", "Races Called Correctly": "20%", "Misses Outside MOE": "20%", "Simple Average Error": 3.1, "Simple Expected Error": 4.1, "Simple Plus-Minus": -1.0, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -1.5, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.2, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.4, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 5, "Bias": "R +0.5", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "R +0.1", "House Effect": "D +1.0"} {"rowid": 31, "Pollster": "Angus Reid Global", "# of Polls": 30, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "no", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "no", "Methodology": "Online", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -1.9, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.4, "538 Grade": "A-", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "R +1.3", "Races Called Correctly": "93%", "Misses Outside MOE": "3%", "Simple Average Error": 3.2, "Simple Expected Error": 4.9, "Simple Plus-Minus": -1.7, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -1.9, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.9, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.4, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 30, "Bias": "R +2.6", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "R +1.3", "House Effect": "D +0.9"} {"rowid": 32, "Pollster": "University of North Florida", "# of Polls": 6, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "yes", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "yes", "Methodology": "Live", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -1.0, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.4, "538 Grade": "A-", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "D +0.5", "Races Called Correctly": "50%", "Misses Outside MOE": "0%", "Simple Average Error": 4.0, "Simple Expected Error": 6.1, "Simple Plus-Minus": -2.1, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -1.0, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.2, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.4, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 4, "Bias": "D +4.0", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "D +0.5", "House Effect": "D +1.6"} {"rowid": 33, "Pollster": "Western New England University", "# of Polls": 12, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "yes", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "yes", "Methodology": "Live", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -0.4, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.3, "538 Grade": "A-", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "R +1.1", "Races Called Correctly": "88%", "Misses Outside MOE": "25%", "Simple Average Error": 5.6, "Simple Expected Error": 5.7, "Simple Plus-Minus": -0.1, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -0.4, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.1, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.3, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 11, "Bias": "R +3.9", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "R +1.1", "House Effect": "R +0.3"} {"rowid": 34, "Pollster": "NBC News/Wall Street Journal", "# of Polls": 27, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "yes", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "yes", "Methodology": "Live", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -0.2, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.3, "538 Grade": "A-", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "D +0.8", "Races Called Correctly": "72%", "Misses Outside MOE": "15%", "Simple Average Error": 4.2, "Simple Expected Error": 5.1, "Simple Plus-Minus": -0.9, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -0.2, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.1, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.3, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 22, "Bias": "D +1.9", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "D +0.8", "House Effect": "D +1.4"} {"rowid": 35, "Pollster": "St. Norbert College", "# of Polls": 12, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "no", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "yes", "Methodology": "Live", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -1.8, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.3, "538 Grade": "A-", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "D +0.3", "Races Called Correctly": "88%", "Misses Outside MOE": "0%", "Simple Average Error": 3.9, "Simple Expected Error": 6.1, "Simple Plus-Minus": -2.3, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -1.8, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.5, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.3, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 11, "Bias": "D +0.9", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "D +0.3", "House Effect": "D +2.9"} {"rowid": 36, "Pollster": "Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc.", "# of Polls": 420, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "no", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "yes", "Methodology": "Live", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -0.5, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.3, "538 Grade": "B+", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "R +0.7", "Races Called Correctly": "86%", "Misses Outside MOE": "20%", "Simple Average Error": 5.2, "Simple Expected Error": 5.5, "Simple Plus-Minus": -0.2, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -0.5, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.5, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.3, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 363, "Bias": "R +0.8", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "R +0.7", "House Effect": "R +1.0"} {"rowid": 37, "Pollster": "Lake Research Partners", "# of Polls": 10, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "no", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "yes", "Methodology": "Live", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -2.0, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.3, "538 Grade": "B+", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "D +0.6", "Races Called Correctly": "80%", "Misses Outside MOE": "10%", "Simple Average Error": 3.9, "Simple Expected Error": 5.7, "Simple Plus-Minus": -1.7, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -2.0, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.5, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.3, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 10, "Bias": "D +2.4", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "D +0.6", "House Effect": "D +3.3"} {"rowid": 38, "Pollster": "Abt Associates", "# of Polls": 8, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "yes", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "yes", "Methodology": "Live", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -0.4, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.3, "538 Grade": "B+", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "D +0.7", "Races Called Correctly": "88%", "Misses Outside MOE": "13%", "Simple Average Error": 4.1, "Simple Expected Error": 5.2, "Simple Plus-Minus": -1.1, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -0.4, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.1, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.3, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 7, "Bias": "D +3.8", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "D +0.7", "House Effect": "D +0.7"} {"rowid": 39, "Pollster": "Castleton University", "# of Polls": 3, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "yes", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "yes", "Methodology": "Live", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -1.2, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.3, "538 Grade": "B+", "Mean-Reverted Bias": null, "Races Called Correctly": "100%", "Misses Outside MOE": "0%", "Simple Average Error": 9.9, "Simple Expected Error": 9.7, "Simple Plus-Minus": 0.3, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -1.2, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.1, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.3, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 0, "Bias": null, "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": null, "House Effect": null} {"rowid": 40, "Pollster": "Emerson College", "# of Polls": 85, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "yes", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "no", "Methodology": "IVR", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -0.6, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.3, "538 Grade": "B+", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "D +0.1", "Races Called Correctly": "75%", "Misses Outside MOE": "16%", "Simple Average Error": 5.6, "Simple Expected Error": 6.0, "Simple Plus-Minus": -0.3, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -0.6, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.4, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.3, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 58, "Bias": "D +0.2", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "D +0.1", "House Effect": "R +1.8"} {"rowid": 41, "Pollster": "EPIC-MRA", "# of Polls": 45, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "no", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "yes", "Methodology": "Live", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -0.7, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.3, "538 Grade": "B+", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "R +0.2", "Races Called Correctly": "80%", "Misses Outside MOE": "18%", "Simple Average Error": 5.1, "Simple Expected Error": 5.7, "Simple Plus-Minus": -0.5, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -0.7, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.4, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.3, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 40, "Bias": "R +0.3", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "R +0.2", "House Effect": "D +0.8"} {"rowid": 42, "Pollster": "High Point University", "# of Polls": 2, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "yes", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "yes", "Methodology": "Live", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -4.6, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.3, "538 Grade": "B+", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "D +0.0", "Races Called Correctly": "100%", "Misses Outside MOE": "0%", "Simple Average Error": 1.0, "Simple Expected Error": 4.5, "Simple Plus-Minus": -3.5, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -4.6, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.3, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.3, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 2, "Bias": "D +0.1", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "D +0.0", "House Effect": "D +1.8"} {"rowid": 43, "Pollster": "Indiana University", "# of Polls": 2, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "yes", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "yes", "Methodology": "Live", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -4.4, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.3, "538 Grade": "B+", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "D +0.1", "Races Called Correctly": "100%", "Misses Outside MOE": "0%", "Simple Average Error": 0.9, "Simple Expected Error": 5.8, "Simple Plus-Minus": -4.9, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -4.4, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.3, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.3, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 2, "Bias": "D +0.9", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "D +0.1", "House Effect": "D +4.1"} {"rowid": 44, "Pollster": "CNN/Opinion Research Corp.", "# of Polls": 98, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "yes", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "yes", "Methodology": "Live", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -0.1, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.2, "538 Grade": "B+", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "D +0.1", "Races Called Correctly": "72%", "Misses Outside MOE": "23%", "Simple Average Error": 5.4, "Simple Expected Error": 5.7, "Simple Plus-Minus": -0.3, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -0.1, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.1, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.2, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 70, "Bias": "D +0.1", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "D +0.1", "House Effect": "D +0.1"} {"rowid": 45, "Pollster": "Fleming & Associates", "# of Polls": 15, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "no", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "yes", "Methodology": "Live", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -1.3, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.2, "538 Grade": "B+", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "R +0.3", "Races Called Correctly": "100%", "Misses Outside MOE": "0%", "Simple Average Error": 5.1, "Simple Expected Error": 5.9, "Simple Plus-Minus": -0.8, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -1.3, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.4, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.2, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 13, "Bias": "R +1.0", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "R +0.3", "House Effect": "R +0.2"} {"rowid": 46, "Pollster": "Princeton Survey Research Associates International", "# of Polls": 33, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "yes", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "yes", "Methodology": "Live", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": 0.0, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.2, "538 Grade": "B+", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "D +0.3", "Races Called Correctly": "70%", "Misses Outside MOE": "27%", "Simple Average Error": 4.8, "Simple Expected Error": 5.0, "Simple Plus-Minus": -0.2, "Advanced Plus-Minus": 0.0, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": 0.0, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.2, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 31, "Bias": "D +0.5", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "D +0.3", "House Effect": "R +0.2"} {"rowid": 47, "Pollster": "Market Shares Corp.", "# of Polls": 26, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "yes", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "yes", "Methodology": "Live", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": 0.1, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.2, "538 Grade": "B+", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "R +1.7", "Races Called Correctly": "85%", "Misses Outside MOE": "19%", "Simple Average Error": 6.8, "Simple Expected Error": 5.6, "Simple Plus-Minus": 1.2, "Advanced Plus-Minus": 0.1, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": 0.0, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.2, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 22, "Bias": "R +4.1", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "R +1.7", "House Effect": "R +2.0"} {"rowid": 48, "Pollster": "Ward Research (Honolulu Star-Advertiser)", "# of Polls": 14, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "no", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "yes", "Methodology": "Live", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -1.3, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.2, "538 Grade": "B+", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "R +0.6", "Races Called Correctly": "75%", "Misses Outside MOE": "29%", "Simple Average Error": 6.0, "Simple Expected Error": 5.9, "Simple Plus-Minus": 0.1, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -1.3, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.4, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.2, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 14, "Bias": "R +1.7", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "R +0.6", "House Effect": "D +0.7"} {"rowid": 49, "Pollster": "University of Massachusetts Lowell", "# of Polls": 17, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "no", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "yes", "Methodology": "Live", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -1.1, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.2, "538 Grade": "B+", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "R +0.2", "Races Called Correctly": "88%", "Misses Outside MOE": "12%", "Simple Average Error": 4.5, "Simple Expected Error": 6.4, "Simple Plus-Minus": -1.9, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -1.1, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.4, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.2, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 9, "Bias": "R +0.8", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "R +0.2", "House Effect": "R +0.7"} {"rowid": 50, "Pollster": "University of South Alabama", "# of Polls": 8, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "no", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "yes", "Methodology": "Live", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -3.1, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.2, "538 Grade": "B+", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "R +0.4", "Races Called Correctly": "100%", "Misses Outside MOE": "0%", "Simple Average Error": 2.8, "Simple Expected Error": 5.2, "Simple Plus-Minus": -2.4, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -3.1, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.7, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.2, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 8, "Bias": "R +1.9", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "R +0.4", "House Effect": "R +2.2"} {"rowid": 51, "Pollster": "Winthrop University", "# of Polls": 1, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "yes", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "yes", "Methodology": "Live", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -3.9, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.2, "538 Grade": "B+", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "D +0.0", "Races Called Correctly": "100%", "Misses Outside MOE": "0%", "Simple Average Error": 0.2, "Simple Expected Error": 4.2, "Simple Plus-Minus": -4.0, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -3.9, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.1, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.2, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 1, "Bias": "D +0.2", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "D +0.0", "House Effect": "R +0.9"} {"rowid": 52, "Pollster": "University of Florida", "# of Polls": 1, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "yes", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "yes", "Methodology": "Live", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -2.0, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.2, "538 Grade": "B+", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "D +0.0", "Races Called Correctly": "50%", "Misses Outside MOE": "0%", "Simple Average Error": 1.1, "Simple Expected Error": 4.9, "Simple Plus-Minus": -3.8, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -2.0, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.1, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.2, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 1, "Bias": "D +1.1", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "D +0.0", "House Effect": "R +0.9"} {"rowid": 53, "Pollster": "National Research Inc.", "# of Polls": 8, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "no", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "yes", "Methodology": "Live", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -1.9, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.2, "538 Grade": "B+", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "R +0.5", "Races Called Correctly": "81%", "Misses Outside MOE": "13%", "Simple Average Error": 5.1, "Simple Expected Error": 6.4, "Simple Plus-Minus": -1.4, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -1.9, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.4, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.2, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 6, "Bias": "R +2.7", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "R +0.5", "House Effect": "R +4.6"} {"rowid": 54, "Pollster": "Stockton University", "# of Polls": 8, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "no", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "yes", "Methodology": "Live", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -1.9, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.2, "538 Grade": "B+", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "D +0.3", "Races Called Correctly": "100%", "Misses Outside MOE": "13%", "Simple Average Error": 3.6, "Simple Expected Error": 5.2, "Simple Plus-Minus": -1.6, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -1.9, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.4, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.2, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 8, "Bias": "D +1.5", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "D +0.3", "House Effect": "D +0.2"} {"rowid": 55, "Pollster": "Suffolk University", "# of Polls": 74, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "no", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "yes", "Methodology": "Live", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -0.4, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.1, "538 Grade": "B+", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "D +0.6", "Races Called Correctly": "81%", "Misses Outside MOE": "19%", "Simple Average Error": 5.0, "Simple Expected Error": 6.4, "Simple Plus-Minus": -1.3, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -0.4, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.3, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.1, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 44, "Bias": "D +1.0", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "D +0.6", "House Effect": "D +2.0"} {"rowid": 56, "Pollster": "Market Research Insight", "# of Polls": 7, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "no", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "yes", "Methodology": "Live", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -4.6, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.1, "538 Grade": "B+", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "D +0.1", "Races Called Correctly": "100%", "Misses Outside MOE": "0%", "Simple Average Error": 1.8, "Simple Expected Error": 5.0, "Simple Plus-Minus": -3.2, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -4.6, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.9, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.1, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 7, "Bias": "D +0.3", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "D +0.1", "House Effect": "D +2.0"} {"rowid": 57, "Pollster": "Montana State University Billings", "# of Polls": 7, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "no", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "yes", "Methodology": "Live", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -3.8, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.1, "538 Grade": "B+", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "D +0.6", "Races Called Correctly": "57%", "Misses Outside MOE": "0%", "Simple Average Error": 3.6, "Simple Expected Error": 5.9, "Simple Plus-Minus": -2.3, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -3.8, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.7, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.1, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 7, "Bias": "D +3.0", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "D +0.6", "House Effect": "D +2.6"} {"rowid": 58, "Pollster": "Data Orbital", "# of Polls": 7, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "no", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "yes", "Methodology": "Live", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -2.6, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.1, "538 Grade": "B+", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "D +0.1", "Races Called Correctly": "100%", "Misses Outside MOE": "0%", "Simple Average Error": 1.8, "Simple Expected Error": 4.6, "Simple Plus-Minus": -2.8, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -2.6, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.5, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.1, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 7, "Bias": "D +0.4", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "D +0.1", "House Effect": "R +2.6"} {"rowid": 59, "Pollster": "Riley Research Associates", "# of Polls": 7, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "no", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "yes", "Methodology": "Live", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -2.4, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.1, "538 Grade": "B+", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "R +0.1", "Races Called Correctly": "100%", "Misses Outside MOE": "0%", "Simple Average Error": 2.7, "Simple Expected Error": 5.6, "Simple Plus-Minus": -2.9, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -2.4, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.5, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.1, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 7, "Bias": "R +0.6", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "R +0.1", "House Effect": "R +1.4"} {"rowid": 60, "Pollster": "RT Strategies", "# of Polls": 42, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "yes", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "yes", "Methodology": "Live", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": 0.2, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.1, "538 Grade": "B+", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "D +1.1", "Races Called Correctly": "71%", "Misses Outside MOE": "40%", "Simple Average Error": 5.8, "Simple Expected Error": 5.3, "Simple Plus-Minus": 0.5, "Advanced Plus-Minus": 0.2, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": 0.1, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.1, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 42, "Bias": "D +1.9", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "D +1.1", "House Effect": "D +3.5"} {"rowid": 61, "Pollster": "University of Washington", "# of Polls": 9, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "no", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "yes", "Methodology": "Live", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -1.4, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.1, "538 Grade": "B+", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "D +0.1", "Races Called Correctly": "100%", "Misses Outside MOE": "0%", "Simple Average Error": 3.7, "Simple Expected Error": 5.1, "Simple Plus-Minus": -1.4, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -1.4, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.3, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.1, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 9, "Bias": "D +0.3", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "D +0.1", "House Effect": "D +3.4"} {"rowid": 62, "Pollster": "Davis, Hibbitts & Midghall Inc.", "# of Polls": 14, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "no", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "yes", "Methodology": "Live", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -0.9, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.1, "538 Grade": "B+", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "R +0.1", "Races Called Correctly": "86%", "Misses Outside MOE": "7%", "Simple Average Error": 4.1, "Simple Expected Error": 5.4, "Simple Plus-Minus": -1.3, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -0.9, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.3, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.1, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 12, "Bias": "R +0.3", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "R +0.1", "House Effect": "D +0.3"} {"rowid": 63, "Pollster": "Ipsos", "# of Polls": 56, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "yes", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "no", "Methodology": "Online", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -0.3, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.1, "538 Grade": "B+", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "D +0.6", "Races Called Correctly": "75%", "Misses Outside MOE": "18%", "Simple Average Error": 4.4, "Simple Expected Error": 4.8, "Simple Plus-Minus": -0.4, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -0.3, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.2, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.1, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 50, "Bias": "D +1.0", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "D +0.6", "House Effect": "D +1.3"} {"rowid": 64, "Pollster": "Harstad Strategic Research Inc.", "# of Polls": 9, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "no", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "yes", "Methodology": "Live", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -1.3, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.1, "538 Grade": "B+", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "D +0.8", "Races Called Correctly": "72%", "Misses Outside MOE": "11%", "Simple Average Error": 3.8, "Simple Expected Error": 5.8, "Simple Plus-Minus": -2.0, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -1.3, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.3, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.1, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 9, "Bias": "D +3.4", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "D +0.8", "House Effect": "D +3.1"} {"rowid": 65, "Pollster": "Pan Atlantic SMS Group", "# of Polls": 17, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "no", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "yes", "Methodology": "Live", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -0.7, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.1, "538 Grade": "B+", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "D +0.9", "Races Called Correctly": "91%", "Misses Outside MOE": "24%", "Simple Average Error": 6.8, "Simple Expected Error": 6.4, "Simple Plus-Minus": 0.4, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -0.7, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.3, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.1, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 15, "Bias": "D +2.8", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "D +0.9", "House Effect": "D +1.5"} {"rowid": 66, "Pollster": "Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group", "# of Polls": 23, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "no", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "yes", "Methodology": "Live", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -0.5, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.1, "538 Grade": "B+", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "D +1.5", "Races Called Correctly": "85%", "Misses Outside MOE": "35%", "Simple Average Error": 5.7, "Simple Expected Error": 5.7, "Simple Plus-Minus": 0.0, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -0.5, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.2, "Predictive Plus-Minus": -0.1, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 23, "Bias": "D +3.5", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "D +1.5", "House Effect": "D +4.6"} {"rowid": 67, "Pollster": "American Viewpoint", "# of Polls": 6, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "no", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "yes", "Methodology": "Live", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -1.8, "Predictive Plus-Minus": 0.0, "538 Grade": "B+", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "R +0.6", "Races Called Correctly": "67%", "Misses Outside MOE": "0%", "Simple Average Error": 4.0, "Simple Expected Error": 5.6, "Simple Plus-Minus": -1.7, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -1.8, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.3, "Predictive Plus-Minus": 0.0, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 6, "Bias": "R +3.8", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "R +0.6", "House Effect": "R +3.2"} {"rowid": 68, "Pollster": "Greenberg Quinlan Rosner/American Viewpoint", "# of Polls": 7, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "no", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "yes", "Methodology": "Live", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -1.5, "Predictive Plus-Minus": 0.0, "538 Grade": "B+", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "R +0.7", "Races Called Correctly": "100%", "Misses Outside MOE": "57%", "Simple Average Error": 4.8, "Simple Expected Error": 5.3, "Simple Plus-Minus": -0.4, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -1.5, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.3, "Predictive Plus-Minus": 0.0, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 5, "Bias": "R +4.9", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "R +0.7", "House Effect": "D +1.8"} {"rowid": 69, "Pollster": "Christopher Newport University", "# of Polls": 7, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "no", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "yes", "Methodology": "Live", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -1.5, "Predictive Plus-Minus": 0.0, "538 Grade": "B+", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "D +0.5", "Races Called Correctly": "100%", "Misses Outside MOE": "14%", "Simple Average Error": 3.9, "Simple Expected Error": 4.7, "Simple Plus-Minus": -0.8, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -1.5, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.3, "Predictive Plus-Minus": 0.0, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 7, "Bias": "D +2.6", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "D +0.5", "House Effect": "D +1.2"} {"rowid": 70, "Pollster": "Pharos Research Group", "# of Polls": 31, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "no", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "yes", "Methodology": "Live", "Banned by 538": "yes", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -0.3, "Predictive Plus-Minus": 0.0, "538 Grade": "F", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "D +0.9", "Races Called Correctly": "92%", "Misses Outside MOE": "16%", "Simple Average Error": 4.0, "Simple Expected Error": 4.9, "Simple Plus-Minus": -0.9, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -0.3, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.2, "Predictive Plus-Minus": 0.0, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 31, "Bias": "D +1.7", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "D +0.9", "House Effect": "D +0.9"} {"rowid": 71, "Pollster": "Temple University", "# of Polls": 6, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "yes", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "no", "Methodology": "Live*", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -1.5, "Predictive Plus-Minus": 0.0, "538 Grade": "B", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "R +0.4", "Races Called Correctly": "100%", "Misses Outside MOE": "17%", "Simple Average Error": 3.7, "Simple Expected Error": 5.2, "Simple Plus-Minus": -1.6, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -1.5, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.3, "Predictive Plus-Minus": 0.0, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 5, "Bias": "R +2.5", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "R +0.4", "House Effect": "D +0.8"} {"rowid": 72, "Pollster": "Keating Research Inc.", "# of Polls": 5, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "no", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "yes", "Methodology": "Live", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -1.8, "Predictive Plus-Minus": 0.0, "538 Grade": "B", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "D +0.1", "Races Called Correctly": "80%", "Misses Outside MOE": "0%", "Simple Average Error": 2.4, "Simple Expected Error": 4.5, "Simple Plus-Minus": -2.1, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -1.8, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.3, "Predictive Plus-Minus": 0.0, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 5, "Bias": "D +0.9", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "D +0.1", "House Effect": "D +3.0"} {"rowid": 73, "Pollster": "Clemson University", "# of Polls": 5, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "no", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "yes", "Methodology": "Live", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -1.8, "Predictive Plus-Minus": 0.0, "538 Grade": "B", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "R +0.5", "Races Called Correctly": "100%", "Misses Outside MOE": "40%", "Simple Average Error": 10.3, "Simple Expected Error": 7.7, "Simple Plus-Minus": 2.6, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -1.8, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.3, "Predictive Plus-Minus": 0.0, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 1, "Bias": "R +16.7", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "R +0.5", "House Effect": "R +9.7"} {"rowid": 74, "Pollster": "Public Policy Polling", "# of Polls": 411, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "no", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "no", "Methodology": "IVR/Online", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -0.4, "Predictive Plus-Minus": 0.0, "538 Grade": "B", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "D +0.3", "Races Called Correctly": "80%", "Misses Outside MOE": "28%", "Simple Average Error": 4.9, "Simple Expected Error": 5.4, "Simple Plus-Minus": -0.4, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -0.4, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.4, "Predictive Plus-Minus": 0.0, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 292, "Bias": "D +0.3", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "D +0.3", "House Effect": "D +1.0"} {"rowid": 75, "Pollster": "Orion Strategies", "# of Polls": 4, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "no", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "yes", "Methodology": "Live", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -3.8, "Predictive Plus-Minus": 0.0, "538 Grade": "B", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "D +0.1", "Races Called Correctly": "100%", "Misses Outside MOE": "0%", "Simple Average Error": 3.1, "Simple Expected Error": 6.2, "Simple Plus-Minus": -3.2, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -3.8, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.4, "Predictive Plus-Minus": 0.0, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 3, "Bias": "D +1.3", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "D +0.1", "House Effect": "D +6.3"} {"rowid": 76, "Pollster": "Strategies 360", "# of Polls": 4, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "no", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "yes", "Methodology": "Live", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -3.0, "Predictive Plus-Minus": 0.0, "538 Grade": "B", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "R +0.1", "Races Called Correctly": "63%", "Misses Outside MOE": "0%", "Simple Average Error": 2.0, "Simple Expected Error": 5.3, "Simple Plus-Minus": -3.3, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -3.0, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.3, "Predictive Plus-Minus": 0.0, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 4, "Bias": "R +0.6", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "R +0.1", "House Effect": "D +1.0"} {"rowid": 77, "Pollster": "Landmark Communications", "# of Polls": 38, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "no", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "no", "Methodology": "IVR/Online", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -0.9, "Predictive Plus-Minus": 0.1, "538 Grade": "B", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "D +1.4", "Races Called Correctly": "82%", "Misses Outside MOE": "18%", "Simple Average Error": 4.7, "Simple Expected Error": 5.4, "Simple Plus-Minus": -0.7, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -0.9, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.5, "Predictive Plus-Minus": 0.1, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 32, "Bias": "D +2.7", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "D +1.4", "House Effect": "R +0.5"} {"rowid": 78, "Pollster": "YouGov", "# of Polls": 375, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "no", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "no", "Methodology": "Online", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -0.4, "Predictive Plus-Minus": 0.1, "538 Grade": "B", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "D +0.3", "Races Called Correctly": "88%", "Misses Outside MOE": "25%", "Simple Average Error": 5.0, "Simple Expected Error": 5.1, "Simple Plus-Minus": -0.1, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -0.4, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.3, "Predictive Plus-Minus": 0.1, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 327, "Bias": "D +0.3", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "D +0.3", "House Effect": "D +0.3"} {"rowid": 79, "Pollster": "Public Opinion Strategies", "# of Polls": 57, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "no", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "yes", "Methodology": "Live", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -0.1, "Predictive Plus-Minus": 0.1, "538 Grade": "B", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "R +1.5", "Races Called Correctly": "68%", "Misses Outside MOE": "23%", "Simple Average Error": 6.0, "Simple Expected Error": 5.8, "Simple Plus-Minus": 0.2, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -0.1, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.1, "Predictive Plus-Minus": 0.1, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 55, "Bias": "R +2.3", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "R +1.5", "House Effect": "R +4.3"} {"rowid": 80, "Pollster": "Global Strategy Group/National Research (Philadelphia Inquirer)", "# of Polls": 4, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "no", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "yes", "Methodology": "Live", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -1.6, "Predictive Plus-Minus": 0.1, "538 Grade": "B", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "R +0.3", "Races Called Correctly": "100%", "Misses Outside MOE": "0%", "Simple Average Error": 3.0, "Simple Expected Error": 5.0, "Simple Plus-Minus": -2.0, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -1.6, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.2, "Predictive Plus-Minus": 0.1, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 4, "Bias": "R +2.7", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "R +0.3", "House Effect": "D +0.1"} {"rowid": 81, "Pollster": "Strategic Vision LLC", "# of Polls": 129, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "no", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "no", "Methodology": "Live*", "Banned by 538": "yes", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -0.4, "Predictive Plus-Minus": 0.1, "538 Grade": "F", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "R +1.9", "Races Called Correctly": "88%", "Misses Outside MOE": "16%", "Simple Average Error": 4.0, "Simple Expected Error": 5.0, "Simple Plus-Minus": -1.0, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -0.4, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.4, "Predictive Plus-Minus": 0.1, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 106, "Bias": "R +2.4", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "R +1.9", "House Effect": "R +2.3"} {"rowid": 82, "Pollster": "Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates", "# of Polls": 4, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "no", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "yes", "Methodology": "Live", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -1.5, "Predictive Plus-Minus": 0.1, "538 Grade": "B", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "D +0.3", "Races Called Correctly": "75%", "Misses Outside MOE": "25%", "Simple Average Error": 6.3, "Simple Expected Error": 6.2, "Simple Plus-Minus": 0.2, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -1.5, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.2, "Predictive Plus-Minus": 0.1, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 3, "Bias": "D +3.4", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "D +0.3", "House Effect": "R +2.3"} {"rowid": 83, "Pollster": "Tarrance Group", "# of Polls": 24, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "no", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "yes", "Methodology": "Live", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -0.2, "Predictive Plus-Minus": 0.1, "538 Grade": "B", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "R +0.7", "Races Called Correctly": "83%", "Misses Outside MOE": "21%", "Simple Average Error": 6.2, "Simple Expected Error": 6.4, "Simple Plus-Minus": -0.2, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -0.2, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.1, "Predictive Plus-Minus": 0.1, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 20, "Bias": "R +1.7", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "R +0.7", "House Effect": "R +5.4"} {"rowid": 84, "Pollster": "Iowa State University", "# of Polls": 3, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "no", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "yes", "Methodology": "Live", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -3.5, "Predictive Plus-Minus": 0.1, "538 Grade": "B", "Mean-Reverted Bias": null, "Races Called Correctly": "67%", "Misses Outside MOE": "33%", "Simple Average Error": 6.3, "Simple Expected Error": 8.9, "Simple Plus-Minus": -2.6, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -3.5, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.3, "Predictive Plus-Minus": 0.1, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 0, "Bias": null, "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": null, "House Effect": null} {"rowid": 85, "Pollster": "Missouri State University", "# of Polls": 3, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "no", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "yes", "Methodology": "Live", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -2.6, "Predictive Plus-Minus": 0.1, "538 Grade": "B", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "D +0.4", "Races Called Correctly": "67%", "Misses Outside MOE": "0%", "Simple Average Error": 4.4, "Simple Expected Error": 6.7, "Simple Plus-Minus": -2.3, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -2.6, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.2, "Predictive Plus-Minus": 0.1, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 3, "Bias": "D +4.1", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "D +0.4", "House Effect": "D +1.2"} {"rowid": 86, "Pollster": "Voter/Consumer Research", "# of Polls": 6, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "no", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "yes", "Methodology": "Live", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -0.9, "Predictive Plus-Minus": 0.1, "538 Grade": "B", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "D +0.1", "Races Called Correctly": "100%", "Misses Outside MOE": "50%", "Simple Average Error": 5.5, "Simple Expected Error": 5.7, "Simple Plus-Minus": -0.2, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -0.9, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.1, "Predictive Plus-Minus": 0.1, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 6, "Bias": "D +0.3", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "D +0.1", "House Effect": "R +3.0"} {"rowid": 87, "Pollster": "GBA Strategies", "# of Polls": 3, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "no", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "yes", "Methodology": "Live", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -1.9, "Predictive Plus-Minus": 0.1, "538 Grade": "B", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "R +0.0", "Races Called Correctly": "67%", "Misses Outside MOE": "0%", "Simple Average Error": 4.7, "Simple Expected Error": 6.1, "Simple Plus-Minus": -1.4, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -1.9, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.2, "Predictive Plus-Minus": 0.1, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 3, "Bias": "R +0.2", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "R +0.0", "House Effect": "D +4.0"} {"rowid": 88, "Pollster": "Mellman Group", "# of Polls": 21, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "no", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "yes", "Methodology": "Live", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -0.1, "Predictive Plus-Minus": 0.1, "538 Grade": "B", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "D +1.6", "Races Called Correctly": "79%", "Misses Outside MOE": "14%", "Simple Average Error": 4.9, "Simple Expected Error": 5.1, "Simple Plus-Minus": -0.2, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -0.1, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.1, "Predictive Plus-Minus": 0.1, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 21, "Bias": "D +4.0", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "D +1.6", "House Effect": "D +5.4"} {"rowid": 89, "Pollster": "Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Corp.", "# of Polls": 34, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "yes", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "no", "Methodology": "Live*", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -0.1, "Predictive Plus-Minus": 0.1, "538 Grade": "B", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "R +0.5", "Races Called Correctly": "72%", "Misses Outside MOE": "9%", "Simple Average Error": 3.9, "Simple Expected Error": 4.9, "Simple Plus-Minus": -1.0, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -0.1, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": 0.0, "Predictive Plus-Minus": 0.1, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 28, "Bias": "R +1.0", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "R +0.5", "House Effect": "R +1.6"} {"rowid": 90, "Pollster": "GfK Group", "# of Polls": 21, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "yes", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "no", "Methodology": "Online", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -0.1, "Predictive Plus-Minus": 0.1, "538 Grade": "B", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "D +0.3", "Races Called Correctly": "88%", "Misses Outside MOE": "19%", "Simple Average Error": 3.9, "Simple Expected Error": 4.8, "Simple Plus-Minus": -0.9, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -0.1, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.1, "Predictive Plus-Minus": 0.1, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 21, "Bias": "D +0.6", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "D +0.3", "House Effect": "D +1.2"} {"rowid": 91, "Pollster": "Market Decisions", "# of Polls": 4, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "no", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "yes", "Methodology": "Live", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -1.2, "Predictive Plus-Minus": 0.1, "538 Grade": "B", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "R +0.1", "Races Called Correctly": "100%", "Misses Outside MOE": "25%", "Simple Average Error": 5.2, "Simple Expected Error": 5.1, "Simple Plus-Minus": 0.0, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -1.2, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.1, "Predictive Plus-Minus": 0.1, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 4, "Bias": "R +0.5", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "R +0.1", "House Effect": "D +0.4"} {"rowid": 92, "Pollster": "Richmond Times-Dispatch", "# of Polls": 4, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "no", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "yes", "Methodology": "Live", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -1.1, "Predictive Plus-Minus": 0.1, "538 Grade": "B", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "D +0.3", "Races Called Correctly": "100%", "Misses Outside MOE": "0%", "Simple Average Error": 3.3, "Simple Expected Error": 4.6, "Simple Plus-Minus": -1.3, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -1.1, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.1, "Predictive Plus-Minus": 0.1, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 4, "Bias": "D +2.9", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "D +0.3", "House Effect": "D +2.4"} {"rowid": 93, "Pollster": "Y2 Analytics", "# of Polls": 4, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "no", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "yes", "Methodology": "Live", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -1.0, "Predictive Plus-Minus": 0.1, "538 Grade": "B", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "D +0.3", "Races Called Correctly": "100%", "Misses Outside MOE": "50%", "Simple Average Error": 9.6, "Simple Expected Error": 5.7, "Simple Plus-Minus": 3.9, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -1.0, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.1, "Predictive Plus-Minus": 0.1, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 3, "Bias": "D +3.3", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "D +0.3", "House Effect": "R +6.5"} {"rowid": 94, "Pollster": "New England College", "# of Polls": 15, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "no", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "no", "Methodology": "IVR", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -1.4, "Predictive Plus-Minus": 0.2, "538 Grade": "B", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "R +0.6", "Races Called Correctly": "77%", "Misses Outside MOE": "0%", "Simple Average Error": 3.0, "Simple Expected Error": 4.9, "Simple Plus-Minus": -1.9, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -1.4, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.5, "Predictive Plus-Minus": 0.2, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 15, "Bias": "R +1.9", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "R +0.6", "House Effect": "R +3.5"} {"rowid": 95, "Pollster": "McKeon & Associates", "# of Polls": 2, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "no", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "yes", "Methodology": "Live", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -6.5, "Predictive Plus-Minus": 0.2, "538 Grade": "B", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "R +0.0", "Races Called Correctly": "100%", "Misses Outside MOE": "0%", "Simple Average Error": 0.9, "Simple Expected Error": 6.5, "Simple Plus-Minus": -5.5, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -6.5, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.4, "Predictive Plus-Minus": 0.2, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 1, "Bias": "R +0.9", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "R +0.0", "House Effect": "R +2.0"} {"rowid": 96, "Pollster": "RBI Strategies & Research", "# of Polls": 2, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "no", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "yes", "Methodology": "Live", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -6.4, "Predictive Plus-Minus": 0.2, "538 Grade": "B", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "R +0.0", "Races Called Correctly": "100%", "Misses Outside MOE": "0%", "Simple Average Error": 0.7, "Simple Expected Error": 5.4, "Simple Plus-Minus": -4.6, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -6.4, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.4, "Predictive Plus-Minus": 0.2, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 1, "Bias": "R +0.7", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "R +0.0", "House Effect": "D +3.5"} {"rowid": 97, "Pollster": "Frederick Polls", "# of Polls": 2, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "no", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "yes", "Methodology": "Live", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -5.0, "Predictive Plus-Minus": 0.2, "538 Grade": "B", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "R +0.0", "Races Called Correctly": "75%", "Misses Outside MOE": "0%", "Simple Average Error": 2.4, "Simple Expected Error": 6.4, "Simple Plus-Minus": -4.0, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -5.0, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.3, "Predictive Plus-Minus": 0.2, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 1, "Bias": "R +0.6", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "R +0.0", "House Effect": "D +3.0"} {"rowid": 98, "Pollster": "APC Research", "# of Polls": 2, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "no", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "yes", "Methodology": "Live", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -3.4, "Predictive Plus-Minus": 0.2, "538 Grade": "B", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "D +0.2", "Races Called Correctly": "100%", "Misses Outside MOE": "0%", "Simple Average Error": 2.5, "Simple Expected Error": 5.4, "Simple Plus-Minus": -2.8, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -3.4, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.2, "Predictive Plus-Minus": 0.2, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 2, "Bias": "D +2.5", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "D +0.2", "House Effect": "R +0.6"} {"rowid": 99, "Pollster": "Tulchin Research", "# of Polls": 2, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "no", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "yes", "Methodology": "Live", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -3.0, "Predictive Plus-Minus": 0.2, "538 Grade": "B", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "R +0.2", "Races Called Correctly": "100%", "Misses Outside MOE": "0%", "Simple Average Error": 3.5, "Simple Expected Error": 4.9, "Simple Plus-Minus": -1.5, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -3.0, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.2, "Predictive Plus-Minus": 0.2, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 2, "Bias": "R +3.5", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "R +0.2", "House Effect": "D +3.2"} {"rowid": 100, "Pollster": "Harper Polling", "# of Polls": 11, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper": "no", "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones": "no", "Methodology": "IVR", "Banned by 538": "no", "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus": -1.8, "Predictive Plus-Minus": 0.2, "538 Grade": "B", "Mean-Reverted Bias": "D +0.1", "Races Called Correctly": "91%", "Misses Outside MOE": "9%", "Simple Average Error": 3.6, "Simple Expected Error": 5.8, "Simple Plus-Minus": -2.3, "Advanced Plus-Minus": -1.8, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus": -0.5, "Predictive Plus-Minus": 0.2, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis": 8, "Bias": "D +0.5", "Mean-Reverted Bias.1": "D +0.1", "House Effect": "R +1.1"}