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rowid Pollster # of Polls NCPP / AAPOR / Roper Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones Methodology Banned by 538 Historical Advanced Plus-Minus Predictive Plus-Minus 538 Grade Mean-Reverted Bias Races Called Correctly Misses Outside MOE Simple Average Error Simple Expected Error Simple Plus-Minus Advanced Plus-Minus Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus Predictive Plus-Minus # of Polls for Bias Analysis Bias Mean-Reverted Bias.1 House Effect
100 Harper Polling 11 no no IVR no -1.8 0.2 B D +0.1 91% 9% 3.6 5.8 -2.3 -1.8 -0.5 0.2 8 D +0.5 D +0.1 R +1.1
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