pollster-ratings/2018/pollster-ratings
Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette
396 rows sorted by Historical Advanced Plus-Minus
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Suggested facets: NCPP / AAPOR / Roper, Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones, Methodology, Banned by 538, 538 Grade, Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus
Link | rowid | Pollster | # of Polls | NCPP / AAPOR / Roper | Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones | Methodology | Banned by 538 | Historical Advanced Plus-Minus ▼ | Predictive Plus-Minus | 538 Grade | Mean-Reverted Bias | Races Called Correctly | Misses Outside MOE | Simple Average Error | Simple Expected Error | Simple Plus-Minus | Advanced Plus-Minus | Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus | Predictive Plus-Minus | # of Polls for Bias Analysis | Bias | Mean-Reverted Bias.1 | House Effect |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
95 | 95 | McKeon & Associates | 2 | no | yes | Live | no | -6.5 | 0.2 | B | R +0.0 | 100% | 0% | 0.9 | 6.5 | -5.5 | -6.5 | -0.4 | 0.2 | 1 | R +0.9 | R +0.0 | R +2.0 |
118 | 118 | University of Houston | 1 | no | yes | Live | no | -6.5 | 0.2 | B | 100% | 0% | 2.0 | 8.5 | -6.4 | -6.5 | -0.2 | 0.2 | 0 | ||||
96 | 96 | RBI Strategies & Research | 2 | no | yes | Live | no | -6.4 | 0.2 | B | R +0.0 | 100% | 0% | 0.7 | 5.4 | -4.6 | -6.4 | -0.4 | 0.2 | 1 | R +0.7 | R +0.0 | D +3.5 |
119 | 119 | Florida International University/Univision | 1 | no | yes | Live | no | -6.1 | 0.2 | B | D +0.1 | 100% | 0% | 1.8 | 6.4 | -4.5 | -6.1 | -0.2 | 0.2 | 1 | D +1.8 | D +0.1 | R +13.0 |
232 | 232 | RMS Research | 1 | no | no | Live* | no | -6.1 | 0.7 | C+ | R +0.0 | 100% | 0% | 0.9 | 6.4 | -5.5 | -6.1 | -0.2 | 0.7 | 1 | R +0.9 | R +0.0 | |
233 | 233 | Canisius College | 1 | no | no | Live* | no | -5.8 | 0.7 | C+ | 100% | 0% | 0.1 | 8.5 | -8.3 | -5.8 | -0.2 | 0.7 | 0 | ||||
212 | 212 | Strategic National | 2 | no | no | IVR | no | -5.7 | 0.6 | C+ | D +0.0 | 25% | 0% | 0.7 | 4.2 | -3.5 | -5.7 | -0.4 | 0.6 | 2 | D +0.7 | D +0.0 | R +4.8 |
213 | 213 | M4 Strategies | 2 | no | no | Online | no | -5.4 | 0.6 | C+ | R +0.2 | 100% | 50% | 3.1 | 4.1 | -1.0 | -5.4 | -0.3 | 0.6 | 2 | R +3.1 | R +0.2 | D +4.8 |
234 | 234 | University of Tennessee | 1 | no | no | Live* | no | -5.3 | 0.7 | C+ | R +0.1 | 100% | 0% | 2.7 | 4.8 | -2.0 | -5.3 | -0.2 | 0.7 | 1 | R +2.7 | R +0.1 | R +5.4 |
97 | 97 | Frederick Polls | 2 | no | yes | Live | no | -5.0 | 0.2 | B | R +0.0 | 75% | 0% | 2.4 | 6.4 | -4.0 | -5.0 | -0.3 | 0.2 | 1 | R +0.6 | R +0.0 | D +3.0 |
120 | 120 | Starboard Communications | 1 | no | yes | Live | no | -4.9 | 0.2 | B | D +0.1 | 100% | 0% | 3.3 | 4.2 | -0.9 | -4.9 | -0.2 | 0.2 | 1 | D +3.3 | D +0.1 | R +7.3 |
181 | 181 | University of Texas | 4 | no | no | Online | no | -4.9 | 0.5 | B- | D +0.1 | 100% | 0% | 1.2 | 5.4 | -4.1 | -4.9 | -0.6 | 0.5 | 4 | D +1.1 | D +0.1 | D +2.8 |
199 | 199 | Praecones Analytica | 3 | no | no | IVR | no | -4.7 | 0.5 | B- | R +0.2 | 33% | 0% | 1.8 | 5.5 | -3.7 | -4.7 | -0.4 | 0.5 | 3 | R +1.8 | R +0.2 | R +5.3 |
235 | 235 | Market Strategies International | 1 | no | no | Live* | no | -4.7 | 0.7 | C+ | R +0.0 | 100% | 0% | 1.1 | 5.6 | -4.5 | -4.7 | -0.2 | 0.7 | 1 | R +1.1 | R +0.0 | R +4.6 |
42 | 42 | High Point University | 2 | yes | yes | Live | no | -4.6 | -0.3 | B+ | D +0.0 | 100% | 0% | 1.0 | 4.5 | -3.5 | -4.6 | -0.3 | -0.3 | 2 | D +0.1 | D +0.0 | D +1.8 |
56 | 56 | Market Research Insight | 7 | no | yes | Live | no | -4.6 | -0.1 | B+ | D +0.1 | 100% | 0% | 1.8 | 5.0 | -3.2 | -4.6 | -0.9 | -0.1 | 7 | D +0.3 | D +0.1 | D +2.0 |
214 | 214 | Louis Harris & Associates | 2 | no | no | Live* | no | -4.5 | 0.6 | C+ | D +0.1 | 100% | 0% | 0.9 | 4.8 | -3.9 | -4.5 | -0.3 | 0.6 | 2 | D +0.9 | D +0.1 | D +4.6 |
43 | 43 | Indiana University | 2 | yes | yes | Live | no | -4.4 | -0.3 | B+ | D +0.1 | 100% | 0% | 0.9 | 5.8 | -4.9 | -4.4 | -0.3 | -0.3 | 2 | D +0.9 | D +0.1 | D +4.1 |
236 | 236 | Dynamic Marketing Inc. | 1 | no | no | Live* | no | -4.4 | 0.7 | C+ | D +0.1 | 100% | 0% | 3.0 | 6.2 | -3.2 | -4.4 | -0.1 | 0.7 | 1 | D +3.0 | D +0.1 | R +7.5 |
200 | 200 | U.S. News & World Report | 3 | no | no | Live* | no | -4.3 | 0.5 | B- | R +0.1 | 100% | 0% | 1.9 | 5.1 | -3.2 | -4.3 | -0.4 | 0.5 | 3 | R +0.8 | R +0.1 | D +1.2 |
215 | 215 | Master Image | 2 | no | no | IVR | no | -4.1 | 0.6 | C+ | 100% | 0% | 1.2 | 7.7 | -6.6 | -4.1 | -0.3 | 0.6 | 0 | ||||
237 | 237 | Cooper & Secrest | 1 | no | no | Live* | no | -4.0 | 0.7 | C+ | R +0.1 | 0% | 0% | 2.6 | 6.2 | -3.6 | -4.0 | -0.1 | 0.7 | 1 | R +2.6 | R +0.1 | |
51 | 51 | Winthrop University | 1 | yes | yes | Live | no | -3.9 | -0.2 | B+ | D +0.0 | 100% | 0% | 0.2 | 4.2 | -4.0 | -3.9 | -0.1 | -0.2 | 1 | D +0.2 | D +0.0 | R +0.9 |
238 | 238 | Lauer Lalley Victoria Inc. | 1 | no | no | Live* | no | -3.9 | 0.7 | C+ | R +0.1 | 100% | 0% | 1.7 | 6.4 | -4.6 | -3.9 | -0.1 | 0.7 | 1 | R +1.7 | R +0.1 | D +4.0 |
239 | 239 | Cranford & Associates | 1 | no | no | Online | no | -3.9 | 0.7 | C+ | D +0.1 | 100% | 0% | 2.5 | 5.4 | -3.0 | -3.9 | -0.1 | 0.7 | 1 | D +2.5 | D +0.1 | D +9.5 |
57 | 57 | Montana State University Billings | 7 | no | yes | Live | no | -3.8 | -0.1 | B+ | D +0.6 | 57% | 0% | 3.6 | 5.9 | -2.3 | -3.8 | -0.7 | -0.1 | 7 | D +3.0 | D +0.6 | D +2.6 |
75 | 75 | Orion Strategies | 4 | no | yes | Live | no | -3.8 | 0.0 | B | D +0.1 | 100% | 0% | 3.1 | 6.2 | -3.2 | -3.8 | -0.4 | 0.0 | 3 | D +1.3 | D +0.1 | D +6.3 |
240 | 240 | Wood Communications Group | 1 | no | no | Live* | no | -3.7 | 0.7 | C+ | D +0.0 | 100% | 0% | 0.8 | 5.6 | -4.8 | -3.7 | -0.1 | 0.7 | 1 | D +0.8 | D +0.0 | D +3.0 |
84 | 84 | Iowa State University | 3 | no | yes | Live | no | -3.5 | 0.1 | B | 67% | 33% | 6.3 | 8.9 | -2.6 | -3.5 | -0.3 | 0.1 | 0 | ||||
241 | 241 | BIGresearch | 1 | no | no | Online | no | -3.5 | 0.7 | C+ | D +0.1 | 100% | 0% | 2.0 | 4.3 | -2.3 | -3.5 | -0.1 | 0.7 | 1 | D +2.0 | D +0.1 | D +7.5 |
98 | 98 | APC Research | 2 | no | yes | Live | no | -3.4 | 0.2 | B | D +0.2 | 100% | 0% | 2.5 | 5.4 | -2.8 | -3.4 | -0.2 | 0.2 | 2 | D +2.5 | D +0.2 | R +0.6 |
182 | 182 | Alabama State University | 4 | no | no | Live* | no | -3.4 | 0.5 | B- | 50% | 0% | 6.4 | 8.4 | -2.0 | -3.4 | -0.4 | 0.5 | 0 | ||||
165 | 165 | St. Pete Polls | 5 | no | no | IVR | no | -3.3 | 0.4 | B- | D +0.1 | 70% | 0% | 1.4 | 5.0 | -3.6 | -3.3 | -0.5 | 0.4 | 5 | D +0.7 | D +0.1 | D +0.3 |
183 | 183 | Northern Arizona University | 4 | no | no | Live* | no | -3.3 | 0.5 | B- | R +0.4 | 100% | 25% | 3.6 | 5.6 | -2.1 | -3.3 | -0.4 | 0.5 | 4 | R +3.3 | R +0.4 | R +5.1 |
201 | 201 | MSR Group | 3 | no | no | Live* | no | -3.3 | 0.5 | B- | D +0.3 | 100% | 0% | 3.5 | 6.0 | -2.6 | -3.3 | -0.3 | 0.5 | 3 | D +3.5 | D +0.3 | D +1.3 |
22 | 22 | University of Arkansas | 6 | yes | yes | Live | no | -3.1 | -0.5 | A- | D +0.6 | 100% | 0% | 3.8 | 5.3 | -1.6 | -3.1 | -0.5 | -0.5 | 6 | D +3.8 | D +0.6 | R +3.9 |
50 | 50 | University of South Alabama | 8 | no | yes | Live | no | -3.1 | -0.2 | B+ | R +0.4 | 100% | 0% | 2.8 | 5.2 | -2.4 | -3.1 | -0.7 | -0.2 | 8 | R +1.9 | R +0.4 | R +2.2 |
166 | 166 | Crawford Johnson & Northcott Inc. | 5 | no | no | Live* | no | -3.1 | 0.4 | B- | D +0.1 | 100% | 20% | 4.7 | 7.7 | -3.0 | -3.1 | -0.4 | 0.4 | 1 | D +3.3 | D +0.1 | |
242 | 242 | Aspen Media & Market Research | 1 | no | no | Live* | no | -3.1 | 0.7 | C+ | R +0.1 | 100% | 0% | 3.5 | 5.9 | -2.4 | -3.1 | -0.1 | 0.7 | 1 | R +3.5 | R +0.1 | |
243 | 243 | Central Surveys Inc. | 1 | no | no | Live* | no | -3.1 | 0.7 | C+ | D +0.1 | 0% | 0% | 1.7 | 4.9 | -3.2 | -3.1 | -0.1 | 0.7 | 1 | D +1.7 | D +0.1 | D +2.3 |
76 | 76 | Strategies 360 | 4 | no | yes | Live | no | -3.0 | 0.0 | B | R +0.1 | 63% | 0% | 2.0 | 5.3 | -3.3 | -3.0 | -0.3 | 0.0 | 4 | R +0.6 | R +0.1 | D +1.0 |
99 | 99 | Tulchin Research | 2 | no | yes | Live | no | -3.0 | 0.2 | B | R +0.2 | 100% | 0% | 3.5 | 4.9 | -1.5 | -3.0 | -0.2 | 0.2 | 2 | R +3.5 | R +0.2 | D +3.2 |
244 | 244 | University of North Carolina | 1 | no | no | Live* | no | -3.0 | 0.7 | C+ | D +0.1 | 100% | 0% | 1.6 | 5.3 | -3.7 | -3.0 | -0.1 | 0.7 | 1 | D +1.6 | D +0.1 | R +1.3 |
216 | 216 | Multi-Quest International | 2 | no | no | Live* | no | -2.9 | 0.6 | C+ | R +0.1 | 50% | 0% | 3.0 | 5.3 | -2.3 | -2.9 | -0.2 | 0.6 | 2 | R +1.1 | R +0.1 | D +1.9 |
217 | 217 | Douglas Fulmer & Associates | 2 | no | no | IVR/Live | no | -2.9 | 0.6 | C+ | 100% | 50% | 5.1 | 8.2 | -3.1 | -2.9 | -0.2 | 0.6 | 0 | ||||
245 | 245 | Revily | 1 | no | no | IVR | no | -2.9 | 0.7 | C+ | R +0.0 | 100% | 0% | 0.5 | 5.6 | -5.1 | -2.9 | -0.1 | 0.7 | 1 | R +0.5 | R +0.0 | D +1.7 |
246 | 246 | Singularis Group | 1 | no | no | IVR | no | -2.9 | 0.7 | C+ | R +0.0 | 100% | 0% | 0.8 | 5.0 | -4.2 | -2.9 | -0.1 | 0.7 | 1 | R +0.8 | R +0.0 | D +2.0 |
218 | 218 | Lincoln Institute | 2 | no | no | Live* | no | -2.8 | 0.6 | C+ | R +0.3 | 75% | 0% | 4.1 | 5.3 | -1.1 | -2.8 | -0.2 | 0.6 | 2 | R +4.1 | R +0.3 | D +2.5 |
247 | 247 | Red Sea Communications | 1 | no | no | Live* | no | -2.8 | 0.7 | C+ | R +0.1 | 100% | 0% | 4.4 | 6.5 | -2.1 | -2.8 | -0.1 | 0.7 | 1 | R +4.4 | R +0.1 | |
219 | 219 | Forward Strategies | 2 | no | no | IVR | no | -2.7 | 0.6 | C+ | D +0.1 | 100% | 0% | 1.3 | 4.8 | -3.5 | -2.7 | -0.2 | 0.6 | 2 | D +1.3 | D +0.1 | D +3.4 |
248 | 248 | New Mexico State University | 1 | no | no | Live* | no | -2.7 | 0.7 | C+ | 0% | 0% | 6.8 | 9.2 | -2.4 | -2.7 | -0.1 | 0.7 | 0 | ||||
19 | 19 | Behavior Research Center (Rocky Mountain) | 7 | yes | yes | Live | no | -2.6 | -0.6 | A- | D +0.1 | 71% | 0% | 3.5 | 6.5 | -3.0 | -2.6 | -0.5 | -0.6 | 5 | D +0.6 | D +0.1 | R +2.1 |
20 | 20 | Blum & Weprin Associates | 18 | no | yes | Live | no | -2.6 | -0.6 | A- | R +1.0 | 94% | 11% | 4.6 | 5.2 | -0.6 | -2.6 | -1.0 | -0.6 | 16 | R +3.0 | R +1.0 | D +1.2 |
58 | 58 | Data Orbital | 7 | no | yes | Live | no | -2.6 | -0.1 | B+ | D +0.1 | 100% | 0% | 1.8 | 4.6 | -2.8 | -2.6 | -0.5 | -0.1 | 7 | D +0.4 | D +0.1 | R +2.6 |
85 | 85 | Missouri State University | 3 | no | yes | Live | no | -2.6 | 0.1 | B | D +0.4 | 67% | 0% | 4.4 | 6.7 | -2.3 | -2.6 | -0.2 | 0.1 | 3 | D +4.1 | D +0.4 | D +1.2 |
107 | 107 | Market Research Institute Inc. | 9 | no | no | Live* | no | -2.6 | 0.2 | B | R +0.3 | 100% | 11% | 2.9 | 5.2 | -2.3 | -2.6 | -0.6 | 0.2 | 9 | R +1.4 | R +0.3 | R +0.8 |
3 | 3 | Field Research Corp. (Field Poll) | 25 | yes | yes | Live | no | -2.5 | -1.1 | A+ | R +1.2 | 100% | 16% | 3.9 | 5.7 | -1.8 | -2.5 | -1.1 | -1.1 | 18 | R +3.3 | R +1.2 | D +0.6 |
17 | 17 | Marquette University Law School | 9 | yes | yes | Live | no | -2.5 | -0.7 | A | D +0.3 | 78% | 11% | 3.3 | 5.8 | -2.5 | -2.5 | -0.6 | -0.7 | 6 | D +1.5 | D +0.3 | R +0.0 |
108 | 108 | Insights West | 9 | no | no | Online | no | -2.5 | 0.2 | B | R +0.1 | 94% | 0% | 2.5 | 4.7 | -2.2 | -2.5 | -0.6 | 0.2 | 8 | R +0.4 | R +0.1 | R +0.9 |
249 | 249 | Winston Group | 1 | no | no | Live* | no | -2.5 | 0.7 | C+ | D +0.2 | 100% | 0% | 6.3 | 6.4 | 0.0 | -2.5 | -0.1 | 0.7 | 1 | D +6.3 | D +0.2 | R +8.0 |
250 | 250 | Diversified Research Inc | 1 | no | no | Live* | no | -2.5 | 0.7 | C+ | R +0.2 | 100% | 0% | 5.0 | 6.8 | -1.8 | -2.5 | -0.1 | 0.7 | 1 | R +5.0 | R +0.2 | |
11 | 11 | National Journal | 12 | yes | yes | Live | no | -2.4 | -0.8 | A | R +0.2 | 100% | 0% | 2.6 | 5.3 | -2.7 | -2.4 | -0.7 | -0.8 | 12 | R +0.6 | R +0.2 | D +0.3 |
27 | 27 | MassINC Polling Group | 14 | no | yes | Live | no | -2.4 | -0.4 | A- | R +0.4 | 86% | 7% | 3.2 | 6.3 | -3.1 | -2.4 | -0.8 | -0.4 | 10 | R +1.7 | R +0.4 | R +0.9 |
59 | 59 | Riley Research Associates | 7 | no | yes | Live | no | -2.4 | -0.1 | B+ | R +0.1 | 100% | 0% | 2.7 | 5.6 | -2.9 | -2.4 | -0.5 | -0.1 | 7 | R +0.6 | R +0.1 | R +1.4 |
150 | 150 | Ethridge & Associates LLC | 6 | no | no | Live* | no | -2.4 | 0.3 | B- | R +0.1 | 83% | 0% | 2.7 | 5.0 | -2.4 | -2.4 | -0.4 | 0.3 | 6 | R +0.7 | R +0.1 | R +3.4 |
251 | 251 | DCCC Targeting Team | 1 | no | no | IVR | no | -2.4 | 0.7 | C+ | D +0.1 | 100% | 0% | 4.5 | 6.2 | -1.7 | -2.4 | -0.1 | 0.7 | 1 | D +4.5 | D +0.1 | |
10 | 10 | Grove Insight | 29 | no | yes | Live | no | -2.3 | -0.8 | A | D +0.5 | 90% | 7% | 3.1 | 5.1 | -2.0 | -2.3 | -1.1 | -0.8 | 29 | D +1.0 | D +0.5 | D +3.4 |
202 | 202 | Personal Marketing Research | 3 | no | no | Live* | no | -2.3 | 0.5 | B- | 67% | 33% | 6.2 | 8.3 | -2.2 | -2.3 | -0.2 | 0.5 | 0 | ||||
252 | 252 | Rivercity Polling | 1 | no | no | IVR | no | -2.3 | 0.7 | C+ | R +0.2 | 100% | 0% | 6.7 | 6.9 | -0.2 | -2.3 | -0.1 | 0.7 | 1 | R +6.7 | R +0.2 | R +11.5 |
253 | 253 | CSP Polling | 1 | no | no | Online | yes | -2.3 | 0.7 | F | D +0.1 | 100% | 0% | 2.6 | 5.2 | -2.6 | -2.3 | -0.1 | 0.7 | 1 | D +2.6 | D +0.1 | R +2.6 |
5 | 5 | Elway Research | 21 | yes | yes | Live | no | -2.2 | -1.1 | A+ | D +0.5 | 90% | 5% | 3.9 | 5.9 | -1.9 | -2.2 | -0.9 | -1.1 | 20 | D +1.2 | D +0.5 | D +3.2 |
138 | 138 | RRH Elections | 7 | no | no | IVR/Online | no | -2.2 | 0.3 | B- | D +0.0 | 79% | 14% | 3.4 | 5.4 | -2.0 | -2.2 | -0.4 | 0.3 | 7 | D +0.2 | D +0.0 | R +4.1 |
184 | 184 | Scripps Howard | 4 | no | no | Live* | no | -2.2 | 0.5 | B- | R +0.1 | 100% | 25% | 3.8 | 4.8 | -1.0 | -2.2 | -0.3 | 0.5 | 4 | R +0.6 | R +0.1 | R +2.3 |
185 | 185 | IVR Polls | 4 | no | no | IVR | no | -2.2 | 0.5 | B- | 100% | 25% | 4.1 | 7.9 | -3.8 | -2.2 | -0.3 | 0.5 | 0 | ||||
186 | 186 | Marshall Marketing & Communications | 4 | no | no | Live* | no | -2.2 | 0.5 | B- | R +0.2 | 100% | 0% | 2.8 | 6.1 | -3.3 | -2.2 | -0.3 | 0.5 | 3 | R +2.2 | R +0.2 | R +0.5 |
254 | 254 | Diamond State Consulting Group | 1 | no | no | IVR | no | -2.2 | 0.7 | C+ | D +0.1 | 100% | 0% | 4.2 | 5.5 | -1.3 | -2.2 | -0.1 | 0.7 | 1 | D +4.2 | D +0.1 | R +5.0 |
6 | 6 | Ciruli Associates | 17 | yes | yes | Live | no | -2.1 | -1.0 | A+ | R +0.7 | 94% | 0% | 3.6 | 5.6 | -2.0 | -2.1 | -0.7 | -1.0 | 16 | R +2.1 | R +0.7 | R +2.5 |
255 | 255 | Neighborhood Research Corporation | 1 | no | no | Live* | no | -2.1 | 0.7 | C+ | R +0.1 | 100% | 0% | 3.4 | 5.7 | -2.3 | -2.1 | -0.1 | 0.7 | 1 | R +3.4 | R +0.1 | R +7.2 |
12 | 12 | Public Policy Institute of California | 12 | yes | yes | Live | no | -2.0 | -0.8 | A | R +0.7 | 100% | 8% | 4.1 | 6.2 | -2.1 | -2.0 | -0.6 | -0.8 | 8 | R +3.4 | R +0.7 | R +1.0 |
37 | 37 | Lake Research Partners | 10 | no | yes | Live | no | -2.0 | -0.3 | B+ | D +0.6 | 80% | 10% | 3.9 | 5.7 | -1.7 | -2.0 | -0.5 | -0.3 | 10 | D +2.4 | D +0.6 | D +3.3 |
52 | 52 | University of Florida | 1 | yes | yes | Live | no | -2.0 | -0.2 | B+ | D +0.0 | 50% | 0% | 1.1 | 4.9 | -3.8 | -2.0 | -0.1 | -0.2 | 1 | D +1.1 | D +0.0 | R +0.9 |
121 | 121 | QEV Analytics | 1 | no | yes | Live | no | -2.0 | 0.2 | B | 0% | 0% | 7.3 | 5.8 | 1.5 | -2.0 | -0.1 | 0.2 | 0 | ||||
1 | 1 | Selzer & Co. | 43 | yes | yes | Live | no | -1.9 | -1.4 | A+ | R +0.0 | 86% | 21% | 4.2 | 5.6 | -1.4 | -1.9 | -1.1 | -1.4 | 30 | R +0.0 | R +0.0 | D +0.1 |
31 | 31 | Angus Reid Global | 30 | no | no | Online | no | -1.9 | -0.4 | A- | R +1.3 | 93% | 3% | 3.2 | 4.9 | -1.7 | -1.9 | -0.9 | -0.4 | 30 | R +2.6 | R +1.3 | D +0.9 |
53 | 53 | National Research Inc. | 8 | no | yes | Live | no | -1.9 | -0.2 | B+ | R +0.5 | 81% | 13% | 5.1 | 6.4 | -1.4 | -1.9 | -0.4 | -0.2 | 6 | R +2.7 | R +0.5 | R +4.6 |
54 | 54 | Stockton University | 8 | no | yes | Live | no | -1.9 | -0.2 | B+ | D +0.3 | 100% | 13% | 3.6 | 5.2 | -1.6 | -1.9 | -0.4 | -0.2 | 8 | D +1.5 | D +0.3 | D +0.2 |
87 | 87 | GBA Strategies | 3 | no | yes | Live | no | -1.9 | 0.1 | B | R +0.0 | 67% | 0% | 4.7 | 6.1 | -1.4 | -1.9 | -0.2 | 0.1 | 3 | R +0.2 | R +0.0 | D +4.0 |
190 | 190 | OnPoint | 4 | no | no | IVR | no | -1.9 | 0.5 | B- | D +0.2 | 100% | 0% | 1.7 | 4.8 | -3.1 | -1.9 | -0.2 | 0.5 | 4 | D +1.6 | D +0.2 | D +2.3 |
193 | 193 | Frank N. Magid Associates Inc. | 4 | no | no | Live* | no | -1.9 | 0.5 | B- | D +0.5 | 100% | 25% | 4.6 | 5.6 | -1.0 | -1.9 | -0.2 | 0.5 | 4 | D +4.6 | D +0.5 | R +0.9 |
221 | 221 | Public Opinion Strategies/Hamilton Campaigns (Texas Credit Union League) | 2 | no | no | Live* | no | -1.9 | 0.6 | C+ | 100% | 0% | 7.0 | 8.8 | -1.8 | -1.9 | -0.1 | 0.6 | 0 | ||||
35 | 35 | St. Norbert College | 12 | no | yes | Live | no | -1.8 | -0.3 | A- | D +0.3 | 88% | 0% | 3.9 | 6.1 | -2.3 | -1.8 | -0.5 | -0.3 | 11 | D +0.9 | D +0.3 | D +2.9 |
67 | 67 | American Viewpoint | 6 | no | yes | Live | no | -1.8 | 0.0 | B+ | R +0.6 | 67% | 0% | 4.0 | 5.6 | -1.7 | -1.8 | -0.3 | 0.0 | 6 | R +3.8 | R +0.6 | R +3.2 |
72 | 72 | Keating Research Inc. | 5 | no | yes | Live | no | -1.8 | 0.0 | B | D +0.1 | 80% | 0% | 2.4 | 4.5 | -2.1 | -1.8 | -0.3 | 0.0 | 5 | D +0.9 | D +0.1 | D +3.0 |
73 | 73 | Clemson University | 5 | no | yes | Live | no | -1.8 | 0.0 | B | R +0.5 | 100% | 40% | 10.3 | 7.7 | 2.6 | -1.8 | -0.3 | 0.0 | 1 | R +16.7 | R +0.5 | R +9.7 |
100 | 100 | Harper Polling | 11 | no | no | IVR | no | -1.8 | 0.2 | B | D +0.1 | 91% | 9% | 3.6 | 5.8 | -2.3 | -1.8 | -0.5 | 0.2 | 8 | D +0.5 | D +0.1 | R +1.1 |
106 | 106 | Louisville Courier-Journal | 10 | no | no | Live* | no | -1.8 | 0.2 | B | R +0.3 | 80% | 10% | 3.3 | 5.2 | -1.8 | -1.8 | -0.5 | 0.2 | 10 | R +1.3 | R +0.3 | R +1.6 |
204 | 204 | BK Strategies | 3 | no | no | IVR | no | -1.8 | 0.5 | C+ | D +0.3 | 67% | 33% | 3.8 | 4.3 | -0.5 | -1.8 | -0.2 | 0.5 | 3 | D +3.6 | D +0.3 | R +2.9 |
206 | 206 | Midwest Survey and Research | 3 | no | no | Live* | no | -1.8 | 0.5 | C+ | R +0.1 | 100% | 33% | 7.3 | 5.9 | 1.4 | -1.8 | -0.2 | 0.5 | 3 | R +1.0 | R +0.1 | |
18 | 18 | Research & Polling Inc. | 27 | no | yes | Live | no | -1.7 | -0.6 | A | R +0.5 | 85% | 7% | 4.3 | 5.6 | -1.3 | -1.7 | -0.8 | -0.6 | 26 | R +1.1 | R +0.5 | R +1.2 |
23 | 23 | University of Connecticut | 7 | yes | yes | Live | no | -1.7 | -0.5 | A- | R +0.4 | 93% | 0% | 3.6 | 5.5 | -1.9 | -1.7 | -0.3 | -0.5 | 7 | R +1.9 | R +0.4 | R +2.0 |
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CREATE TABLE "pollster-ratings/2018/pollster-ratings" ( "Pollster" TEXT, "# of Polls" INTEGER, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper" TEXT, "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones" TEXT, "Methodology" TEXT, "Banned by 538" TEXT, "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus" REAL, "Predictive Plus-Minus" REAL, "538 Grade" TEXT, "Mean-Reverted Bias" TEXT, "Races Called Correctly" TEXT, "Misses Outside MOE" TEXT, "Simple Average Error" REAL, "Simple Expected Error" REAL, "Simple Plus-Minus" REAL, "Advanced Plus-Minus" REAL, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus" REAL, "Predictive Plus-Minus" REAL, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis" INTEGER, "Bias" TEXT, "Mean-Reverted Bias.1" TEXT, "House Effect" TEXT );