pollster-ratings/2018/pollster-ratings
Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette
396 rows sorted by Races Called Correctly
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Suggested facets: NCPP / AAPOR / Roper, Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones, Methodology, Banned by 538, 538 Grade, Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus
Link | rowid | Pollster | # of Polls | NCPP / AAPOR / Roper | Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones | Methodology | Banned by 538 | Historical Advanced Plus-Minus | Predictive Plus-Minus | 538 Grade | Mean-Reverted Bias | Races Called Correctly ▼ | Misses Outside MOE | Simple Average Error | Simple Expected Error | Simple Plus-Minus | Advanced Plus-Minus | Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus | Predictive Plus-Minus | # of Polls for Bias Analysis | Bias | Mean-Reverted Bias.1 | House Effect |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
121 | 121 | QEV Analytics | 1 | no | yes | Live | no | -2.0 | 0.2 | B | 0% | 0% | 7.3 | 5.8 | 1.5 | -2.0 | -0.1 | 0.2 | 0 | ||||
125 | 125 | Probolsky Research | 1 | no | yes | Live | no | -1.7 | 0.3 | B | R +0.2 | 0% | 0% | 4.9 | 5.6 | -0.8 | -1.7 | -0.1 | 0.3 | 1 | R +4.9 | R +0.2 | |
170 | 170 | Feldman Group | 1 | no | yes | Live | no | 3.6 | 0.4 | B- | D +0.3 | 0% | 100% | 10.8 | 5.8 | 5.0 | 3.6 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 1 | D +10.8 | D +0.3 | |
189 | 189 | Glover Park Group | 1 | no | yes | Live | no | 5.3 | 0.5 | B- | R +0.4 | 0% | 100% | 11.4 | 6.6 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 1 | R +11.4 | R +0.4 | R +11.5 |
207 | 207 | Lauer Johnson Research | 1 | no | yes | Live | no | 7.5 | 0.5 | C+ | D +0.4 | 0% | 100% | 13.8 | 6.0 | 7.9 | 7.5 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 1 | D +13.8 | D +0.4 | D +17.0 |
237 | 237 | Cooper & Secrest | 1 | no | no | Live* | no | -4.0 | 0.7 | C+ | R +0.1 | 0% | 0% | 2.6 | 6.2 | -3.6 | -4.0 | -0.1 | 0.7 | 1 | R +2.6 | R +0.1 | |
243 | 243 | Central Surveys Inc. | 1 | no | no | Live* | no | -3.1 | 0.7 | C+ | D +0.1 | 0% | 0% | 1.7 | 4.9 | -3.2 | -3.1 | -0.1 | 0.7 | 1 | D +1.7 | D +0.1 | D +2.3 |
248 | 248 | New Mexico State University | 1 | no | no | Live* | no | -2.7 | 0.7 | C+ | 0% | 0% | 6.8 | 9.2 | -2.4 | -2.7 | -0.1 | 0.7 | 0 | ||||
290 | 290 | Strategic Services | 1 | no | no | Live* | no | 0.5 | 0.7 | C+ | D +0.2 | 0% | 0% | 5.5 | 5.8 | -0.3 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 1 | D +5.5 | D +0.2 | D +2.0 |
298 | 298 | Harvard University | 1 | no | no | Live* | no | 1.0 | 0.8 | C+ | D +0.2 | 0% | 0% | 6.9 | 5.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 1 | D +6.9 | D +0.2 | D +1.5 |
311 | 311 | Great Lakes Strategies Group | 1 | no | no | IVR | no | 2.9 | 0.8 | C+ | R +0.2 | 0% | 100% | 7.6 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 1 | R +7.6 | R +0.2 | R +10.0 |
312 | 312 | A&A Research | 1 | no | no | Live* | no | 3.1 | 0.8 | C | R +0.3 | 0% | 100% | 10.1 | 5.9 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 1 | R +10.1 | R +0.3 | |
315 | 315 | TMR Research | 2 | no | no | Live* | no | 1.9 | 0.8 | C | D +0.5 | 0% | 50% | 7.8 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 2 | D +7.8 | D +0.5 | D +6.7 |
322 | 322 | Strategy Research | 1 | no | no | IVR | no | 3.9 | 0.9 | C | R +0.3 | 0% | 100% | 8.6 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 1 | R +8.6 | R +0.3 | R +4.7 |
324 | 324 | New Frontier Strategy | 1 | no | no | IVR | no | 4.0 | 0.9 | C | 0% | 100% | 21.6 | 7.9 | 13.8 | 4.0 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 0 | ||||
325 | 325 | California State University, Bakersfield | 1 | no | no | Live* | no | 4.0 | 0.9 | C | R +0.3 | 0% | 100% | 9.9 | 6.1 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 1 | R +9.9 | R +0.3 | R +14.0 |
326 | 326 | Marketing Research Institute | 1 | no | no | Live* | no | 4.0 | 0.9 | C | R +0.2 | 0% | 100% | 7.4 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 1 | R +7.4 | R +0.2 | R +7.3 |
327 | 327 | Craciun Research Group | 1 | no | yes | Live | no | 17.3 | 0.9 | C | D +0.6 | 0% | 100% | 18.7 | 5.2 | 13.6 | 17.3 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 1 | D +18.7 | D +0.6 | D +11.3 |
330 | 330 | SMS Research & Marketing Services Inc. | 1 | no | no | Live* | no | 4.4 | 0.9 | C | R +0.3 | 0% | 100% | 9.8 | 4.5 | 5.2 | 4.4 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 1 | R +9.8 | R +0.3 | R +0.3 |
332 | 332 | Glascock Group | 1 | no | no | IVR | no | 4.8 | 0.9 | C | R +0.4 | 0% | 100% | 12.1 | 5.6 | 6.5 | 4.8 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 1 | R +12.1 | R +0.4 | |
337 | 337 | Arthur J. Finkelstein & Associates | 1 | no | no | Live* | no | 5.5 | 0.9 | C | R +0.4 | 0% | 100% | 13.7 | 6.8 | 6.9 | 5.5 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 1 | R +13.7 | R +0.4 | |
346 | 346 | Saguaro Strategies | 2 | no | no | Online | no | 3.6 | 0.9 | C | D +0.3 | 0% | 100% | 5.0 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 3.6 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 2 | D +5.0 | D +0.3 | D +4.1 |
351 | 351 | Anderson Group | 1 | no | no | Live* | no | 7.6 | 1.0 | C | R +0.4 | 0% | 100% | 10.9 | 4.4 | 6.5 | 7.6 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 1 | R +10.9 | R +0.4 | R +5.0 |
367 | 367 | Jeffrey Stonecash | 1 | no | no | Live* | no | 11.4 | 1.1 | C | R +0.6 | 0% | 100% | 17.3 | 5.2 | 12.1 | 11.4 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 1 | R +17.3 | R +0.6 | R +16.5 |
373 | 373 | Indiana University-Purdue University Fort Wayne | 3 | no | yes | Live | no | 10.0 | 1.2 | C- | 0% | 100% | 23.5 | 8.5 | 15.0 | 10.0 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0 | ||||
385 | 385 | Riggs Research Services | 1 | no | no | Live* | no | 25.3 | 1.5 | D+ | D +1.1 | 0% | 100% | 33.7 | 5.7 | 28.0 | 25.3 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1 | D +33.7 | D +1.1 | D +29.0 |
388 | 388 | Massie & Associates | 2 | no | no | Live* | no | 14.9 | 1.7 | D+ | R +1.5 | 0% | 100% | 23.9 | 6.5 | 17.4 | 14.9 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 2 | R +23.9 | R +1.5 | |
390 | 390 | Jayhawk Consulting | 1 | no | no | Live* | no | 32.7 | 1.8 | D | D +1.4 | 0% | 100% | 42.9 | 5.9 | 37.0 | 32.7 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1 | D +42.9 | D +1.4 | |
3 | 3 | Field Research Corp. (Field Poll) | 25 | yes | yes | Live | no | -2.5 | -1.1 | A+ | R +1.2 | 100% | 16% | 3.9 | 5.7 | -1.8 | -2.5 | -1.1 | -1.1 | 18 | R +3.3 | R +1.2 | D +0.6 |
11 | 11 | National Journal | 12 | yes | yes | Live | no | -2.4 | -0.8 | A | R +0.2 | 100% | 0% | 2.6 | 5.3 | -2.7 | -2.4 | -0.7 | -0.8 | 12 | R +0.6 | R +0.2 | D +0.3 |
12 | 12 | Public Policy Institute of California | 12 | yes | yes | Live | no | -2.0 | -0.8 | A | R +0.7 | 100% | 8% | 4.1 | 6.2 | -2.1 | -2.0 | -0.6 | -0.8 | 8 | R +3.4 | R +0.7 | R +1.0 |
22 | 22 | University of Arkansas | 6 | yes | yes | Live | no | -3.1 | -0.5 | A- | D +0.6 | 100% | 0% | 3.8 | 5.3 | -1.6 | -3.1 | -0.5 | -0.5 | 6 | D +3.8 | D +0.6 | R +3.9 |
39 | 39 | Castleton University | 3 | yes | yes | Live | no | -1.2 | -0.3 | B+ | 100% | 0% | 9.9 | 9.7 | 0.3 | -1.2 | -0.1 | -0.3 | 0 | ||||
42 | 42 | High Point University | 2 | yes | yes | Live | no | -4.6 | -0.3 | B+ | D +0.0 | 100% | 0% | 1.0 | 4.5 | -3.5 | -4.6 | -0.3 | -0.3 | 2 | D +0.1 | D +0.0 | D +1.8 |
43 | 43 | Indiana University | 2 | yes | yes | Live | no | -4.4 | -0.3 | B+ | D +0.1 | 100% | 0% | 0.9 | 5.8 | -4.9 | -4.4 | -0.3 | -0.3 | 2 | D +0.9 | D +0.1 | D +4.1 |
45 | 45 | Fleming & Associates | 15 | no | yes | Live | no | -1.3 | -0.2 | B+ | R +0.3 | 100% | 0% | 5.1 | 5.9 | -0.8 | -1.3 | -0.4 | -0.2 | 13 | R +1.0 | R +0.3 | R +0.2 |
50 | 50 | University of South Alabama | 8 | no | yes | Live | no | -3.1 | -0.2 | B+ | R +0.4 | 100% | 0% | 2.8 | 5.2 | -2.4 | -3.1 | -0.7 | -0.2 | 8 | R +1.9 | R +0.4 | R +2.2 |
51 | 51 | Winthrop University | 1 | yes | yes | Live | no | -3.9 | -0.2 | B+ | D +0.0 | 100% | 0% | 0.2 | 4.2 | -4.0 | -3.9 | -0.1 | -0.2 | 1 | D +0.2 | D +0.0 | R +0.9 |
54 | 54 | Stockton University | 8 | no | yes | Live | no | -1.9 | -0.2 | B+ | D +0.3 | 100% | 13% | 3.6 | 5.2 | -1.6 | -1.9 | -0.4 | -0.2 | 8 | D +1.5 | D +0.3 | D +0.2 |
56 | 56 | Market Research Insight | 7 | no | yes | Live | no | -4.6 | -0.1 | B+ | D +0.1 | 100% | 0% | 1.8 | 5.0 | -3.2 | -4.6 | -0.9 | -0.1 | 7 | D +0.3 | D +0.1 | D +2.0 |
58 | 58 | Data Orbital | 7 | no | yes | Live | no | -2.6 | -0.1 | B+ | D +0.1 | 100% | 0% | 1.8 | 4.6 | -2.8 | -2.6 | -0.5 | -0.1 | 7 | D +0.4 | D +0.1 | R +2.6 |
59 | 59 | Riley Research Associates | 7 | no | yes | Live | no | -2.4 | -0.1 | B+ | R +0.1 | 100% | 0% | 2.7 | 5.6 | -2.9 | -2.4 | -0.5 | -0.1 | 7 | R +0.6 | R +0.1 | R +1.4 |
61 | 61 | University of Washington | 9 | no | yes | Live | no | -1.4 | -0.1 | B+ | D +0.1 | 100% | 0% | 3.7 | 5.1 | -1.4 | -1.4 | -0.3 | -0.1 | 9 | D +0.3 | D +0.1 | D +3.4 |
68 | 68 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner/American Viewpoint | 7 | no | yes | Live | no | -1.5 | 0.0 | B+ | R +0.7 | 100% | 57% | 4.8 | 5.3 | -0.4 | -1.5 | -0.3 | 0.0 | 5 | R +4.9 | R +0.7 | D +1.8 |
69 | 69 | Christopher Newport University | 7 | no | yes | Live | no | -1.5 | 0.0 | B+ | D +0.5 | 100% | 14% | 3.9 | 4.7 | -0.8 | -1.5 | -0.3 | 0.0 | 7 | D +2.6 | D +0.5 | D +1.2 |
71 | 71 | Temple University | 6 | yes | no | Live* | no | -1.5 | 0.0 | B | R +0.4 | 100% | 17% | 3.7 | 5.2 | -1.6 | -1.5 | -0.3 | 0.0 | 5 | R +2.5 | R +0.4 | D +0.8 |
73 | 73 | Clemson University | 5 | no | yes | Live | no | -1.8 | 0.0 | B | R +0.5 | 100% | 40% | 10.3 | 7.7 | 2.6 | -1.8 | -0.3 | 0.0 | 1 | R +16.7 | R +0.5 | R +9.7 |
75 | 75 | Orion Strategies | 4 | no | yes | Live | no | -3.8 | 0.0 | B | D +0.1 | 100% | 0% | 3.1 | 6.2 | -3.2 | -3.8 | -0.4 | 0.0 | 3 | D +1.3 | D +0.1 | D +6.3 |
80 | 80 | Global Strategy Group/National Research (Philadelphia Inquirer) | 4 | no | yes | Live | no | -1.6 | 0.1 | B | R +0.3 | 100% | 0% | 3.0 | 5.0 | -2.0 | -1.6 | -0.2 | 0.1 | 4 | R +2.7 | R +0.3 | D +0.1 |
86 | 86 | Voter/Consumer Research | 6 | no | yes | Live | no | -0.9 | 0.1 | B | D +0.1 | 100% | 50% | 5.5 | 5.7 | -0.2 | -0.9 | -0.1 | 0.1 | 6 | D +0.3 | D +0.1 | R +3.0 |
91 | 91 | Market Decisions | 4 | no | yes | Live | no | -1.2 | 0.1 | B | R +0.1 | 100% | 25% | 5.2 | 5.1 | 0.0 | -1.2 | -0.1 | 0.1 | 4 | R +0.5 | R +0.1 | D +0.4 |
92 | 92 | Richmond Times-Dispatch | 4 | no | yes | Live | no | -1.1 | 0.1 | B | D +0.3 | 100% | 0% | 3.3 | 4.6 | -1.3 | -1.1 | -0.1 | 0.1 | 4 | D +2.9 | D +0.3 | D +2.4 |
93 | 93 | Y2 Analytics | 4 | no | yes | Live | no | -1.0 | 0.1 | B | D +0.3 | 100% | 50% | 9.6 | 5.7 | 3.9 | -1.0 | -0.1 | 0.1 | 3 | D +3.3 | D +0.3 | R +6.5 |
95 | 95 | McKeon & Associates | 2 | no | yes | Live | no | -6.5 | 0.2 | B | R +0.0 | 100% | 0% | 0.9 | 6.5 | -5.5 | -6.5 | -0.4 | 0.2 | 1 | R +0.9 | R +0.0 | R +2.0 |
96 | 96 | RBI Strategies & Research | 2 | no | yes | Live | no | -6.4 | 0.2 | B | R +0.0 | 100% | 0% | 0.7 | 5.4 | -4.6 | -6.4 | -0.4 | 0.2 | 1 | R +0.7 | R +0.0 | D +3.5 |
98 | 98 | APC Research | 2 | no | yes | Live | no | -3.4 | 0.2 | B | D +0.2 | 100% | 0% | 2.5 | 5.4 | -2.8 | -3.4 | -0.2 | 0.2 | 2 | D +2.5 | D +0.2 | R +0.6 |
99 | 99 | Tulchin Research | 2 | no | yes | Live | no | -3.0 | 0.2 | B | R +0.2 | 100% | 0% | 3.5 | 4.9 | -1.5 | -3.0 | -0.2 | 0.2 | 2 | R +3.5 | R +0.2 | D +3.2 |
102 | 102 | Knowledge Networks | 3 | yes | no | Online | no | -1.1 | 0.2 | B | R +0.4 | 100% | 33% | 4.1 | 4.7 | -0.6 | -1.1 | -0.1 | 0.2 | 3 | R +4.1 | R +0.4 | R +1.0 |
105 | 105 | Southern Media & Opinion Research | 7 | no | yes | Live | no | -0.2 | 0.2 | B | D +0.6 | 100% | 14% | 5.6 | 5.6 | 0.0 | -0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 7 | D +3.2 | D +0.6 | D +3.6 |
107 | 107 | Market Research Institute Inc. | 9 | no | no | Live* | no | -2.6 | 0.2 | B | R +0.3 | 100% | 11% | 2.9 | 5.2 | -2.3 | -2.6 | -0.6 | 0.2 | 9 | R +1.4 | R +0.3 | R +0.8 |
111 | 111 | Kiley & Company | 2 | no | yes | Live | no | -1.5 | 0.2 | B | D +0.2 | 100% | 0% | 5.1 | 5.8 | -0.7 | -1.5 | -0.1 | 0.2 | 2 | D +3.4 | D +0.2 | D +7.3 |
118 | 118 | University of Houston | 1 | no | yes | Live | no | -6.5 | 0.2 | B | 100% | 0% | 2.0 | 8.5 | -6.4 | -6.5 | -0.2 | 0.2 | 0 | ||||
119 | 119 | Florida International University/Univision | 1 | no | yes | Live | no | -6.1 | 0.2 | B | D +0.1 | 100% | 0% | 1.8 | 6.4 | -4.5 | -6.1 | -0.2 | 0.2 | 1 | D +1.8 | D +0.1 | R +13.0 |
120 | 120 | Starboard Communications | 1 | no | yes | Live | no | -4.9 | 0.2 | B | D +0.1 | 100% | 0% | 3.3 | 4.2 | -0.9 | -4.9 | -0.2 | 0.2 | 1 | D +3.3 | D +0.1 | R +7.3 |
122 | 122 | Merrill Poll | 2 | no | yes | Live | no | -0.8 | 0.2 | B | 100% | 0% | 8.7 | 8.8 | -0.1 | -0.8 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0 | ||||
123 | 123 | Braun Research | 6 | no | yes | Live | no | 0.0 | 0.2 | B | D +1.1 | 100% | 50% | 6.6 | 5.4 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 6 | D +6.6 | D +1.1 | D +2.8 |
124 | 124 | Cygnal | 2 | no | yes | Live | no | -0.7 | 0.2 | B | D +0.3 | 100% | 0% | 5.2 | 4.6 | 0.6 | -0.7 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 2 | D +5.2 | D +0.3 | R +3.4 |
127 | 127 | Dittman Research | 9 | no | yes | Live | no | 0.1 | 0.3 | B | D +1.0 | 100% | 22% | 5.9 | 5.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 6 | D +6.1 | D +1.0 | D +0.7 |
128 | 128 | Meeting Street Research | 1 | no | yes | Live | no | -1.4 | 0.3 | B- | D +0.1 | 100% | 0% | 2.7 | 6.2 | -3.5 | -1.4 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 1 | D +2.7 | D +0.1 | D +5.3 |
131 | 131 | Dartmouth College | 2 | no | yes | Live | no | -0.4 | 0.3 | B- | 100% | 50% | 9.0 | 8.1 | 0.9 | -0.4 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0 | ||||
132 | 132 | Old Dominion University | 1 | no | yes | Live | no | -0.9 | 0.3 | B- | D +0.1 | 100% | 0% | 4.5 | 5.4 | -0.9 | -0.9 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 1 | D +4.5 | D +0.1 | R +0.8 |
133 | 133 | Baruch College | 2 | no | yes | Live | no | -0.2 | 0.3 | B- | 100% | 0% | 5.7 | 8.4 | -2.7 | -0.2 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0 | ||||
134 | 134 | Schoen Consulting | 1 | no | yes | Live | no | -0.8 | 0.3 | B- | R +0.1 | 100% | 0% | 2.3 | 5.1 | -2.9 | -0.8 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 1 | R +2.3 | R +0.1 | R +1.8 |
135 | 135 | Centre College | 1 | no | yes | Live | no | -0.7 | 0.3 | B- | D +0.1 | 100% | 0% | 3.9 | 4.9 | -1.0 | -0.7 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 1 | D +3.9 | D +0.1 | D +2.3 |
136 | 136 | Bendixen & Amandi International | 2 | no | yes | Live | no | -0.1 | 0.3 | B- | D +0.1 | 100% | 0% | 3.0 | 5.0 | -1.9 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 2 | D +1.6 | D +0.1 | D +3.0 |
137 | 137 | Belden Russonello | 2 | no | yes | Live | no | 0.0 | 0.3 | B- | D +0.2 | 100% | 50% | 4.7 | 5.1 | -0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 2 | D +3.3 | D +0.2 | D +5.7 |
140 | 140 | University of Denver | 2 | no | yes | Live | no | 0.1 | 0.3 | B- | R +0.1 | 100% | 0% | 3.4 | 4.8 | -1.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 2 | R +1.0 | R +0.1 | R +0.4 |
141 | 141 | Clarus Research Group | 3 | no | yes | Live | no | 0.3 | 0.3 | B- | D +0.6 | 100% | 33% | 6.8 | 5.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 3 | D +6.8 | D +0.6 | D +2.2 |
142 | 142 | Financial Dynamics | 15 | no | no | Live* | no | -0.9 | 0.3 | B- | R +0.7 | 100% | 0% | 2.8 | 4.8 | -2.0 | -0.9 | -0.3 | 0.3 | 15 | R +2.0 | R +0.7 | R +2.1 |
144 | 144 | Basswood Research | 2 | no | yes | Live | no | 0.6 | 0.3 | B- | R +0.4 | 100% | 50% | 10.7 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 1 | R +13.1 | R +0.4 | |
145 | 145 | Virginia Commonwealth University | 5 | no | yes | Live | no | 0.5 | 0.3 | B- | R +0.3 | 100% | 20% | 4.9 | 5.0 | -0.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 5 | R +1.9 | R +0.3 | R +1.7 |
146 | 146 | University of Nevada Las Vegas | 1 | no | yes | Live | no | 0.7 | 0.3 | B- | 100% | 0% | 9.0 | 8.2 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0 | ||||
147 | 147 | Middle Tennessee State University | 4 | no | yes | Live | no | 0.5 | 0.3 | B- | D +0.1 | 100% | 25% | 8.0 | 6.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 3 | D +1.3 | D +0.1 | R +5.0 |
154 | 154 | Hoffman Research Group | 1 | no | yes | Live | no | 1.6 | 0.4 | B- | R +0.2 | 100% | 0% | 7.1 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 1 | R +7.1 | R +0.2 | R +0.4 |
158 | 158 | Val Smith | 1 | no | yes | Live | no | 2.1 | 0.4 | B- | R +0.3 | 100% | 0% | 8.5 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 1 | R +8.5 | R +0.3 | R +15.0 |
166 | 166 | Crawford Johnson & Northcott Inc. | 5 | no | no | Live* | no | -3.1 | 0.4 | B- | D +0.1 | 100% | 20% | 4.7 | 7.7 | -3.0 | -3.1 | -0.4 | 0.4 | 1 | D +3.3 | D +0.1 | |
177 | 177 | SocialSphere | 2 | no | yes | Live | no | 2.7 | 0.5 | B- | R +0.4 | 100% | 0% | 6.1 | 5.4 | 0.8 | 2.7 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 2 | R +6.1 | R +0.4 | R +6.4 |
178 | 178 | Wiese Research Associates Inc. | 6 | no | yes | Live | no | 1.3 | 0.5 | B- | D +1.0 | 100% | 50% | 8.2 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 6 | D +5.9 | D +1.0 | D +4.1 |
180 | 180 | University of Massachusetts Amherst | 11 | no | no | Live* | no | -0.7 | 0.5 | B- | R +0.4 | 100% | 9% | 6.5 | 7.8 | -1.2 | -0.7 | -0.2 | 0.5 | 2 | R +7.2 | R +0.4 | R +1.8 |
181 | 181 | University of Texas | 4 | no | no | Online | no | -4.9 | 0.5 | B- | D +0.1 | 100% | 0% | 1.2 | 5.4 | -4.1 | -4.9 | -0.6 | 0.5 | 4 | D +1.1 | D +0.1 | D +2.8 |
183 | 183 | Northern Arizona University | 4 | no | no | Live* | no | -3.3 | 0.5 | B- | R +0.4 | 100% | 25% | 3.6 | 5.6 | -2.1 | -3.3 | -0.4 | 0.5 | 4 | R +3.3 | R +0.4 | R +5.1 |
184 | 184 | Scripps Howard | 4 | no | no | Live* | no | -2.2 | 0.5 | B- | R +0.1 | 100% | 25% | 3.8 | 4.8 | -1.0 | -2.2 | -0.3 | 0.5 | 4 | R +0.6 | R +0.1 | R +2.3 |
185 | 185 | IVR Polls | 4 | no | no | IVR | no | -2.2 | 0.5 | B- | 100% | 25% | 4.1 | 7.9 | -3.8 | -2.2 | -0.3 | 0.5 | 0 | ||||
186 | 186 | Marshall Marketing & Communications | 4 | no | no | Live* | no | -2.2 | 0.5 | B- | R +0.2 | 100% | 0% | 2.8 | 6.1 | -3.3 | -2.2 | -0.3 | 0.5 | 3 | R +2.2 | R +0.2 | R +0.5 |
188 | 188 | Richard Day Research Inc. | 11 | no | no | Live* | no | -0.6 | 0.5 | B- | R +0.8 | 100% | 27% | 5.5 | 5.3 | 0.2 | -0.6 | -0.2 | 0.5 | 11 | R +2.9 | R +0.8 | R +0.9 |
190 | 190 | OnPoint | 4 | no | no | IVR | no | -1.9 | 0.5 | B- | D +0.2 | 100% | 0% | 1.7 | 4.8 | -3.1 | -1.9 | -0.2 | 0.5 | 4 | D +1.6 | D +0.2 | D +2.3 |
192 | 192 | CVOTER International | 5 | no | no | Online | no | -1.5 | 0.5 | B- | R +0.3 | 100% | 0% | 2.1 | 3.3 | -1.2 | -1.5 | -0.2 | 0.5 | 5 | R +1.8 | R +0.3 | R +0.3 |
193 | 193 | Frank N. Magid Associates Inc. | 4 | no | no | Live* | no | -1.9 | 0.5 | B- | D +0.5 | 100% | 25% | 4.6 | 5.6 | -1.0 | -1.9 | -0.2 | 0.5 | 4 | D +4.6 | D +0.5 | R +0.9 |
195 | 195 | Lucid | 14 | no | no | Online | no | -0.4 | 0.5 | B- | D +0.8 | 100% | 14% | 2.6 | 3.8 | -1.2 | -0.4 | -0.1 | 0.5 | 14 | D +2.4 | D +0.8 | D +1.8 |
198 | 198 | University of Illinois at Chicago | 1 | yes | no | Live* | no | 6.6 | 0.5 | B- | R +0.5 | 100% | 100% | 14.1 | 5.7 | 8.4 | 6.6 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 1 | R +14.1 | R +0.5 | R +5.1 |
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CREATE TABLE "pollster-ratings/2018/pollster-ratings" ( "Pollster" TEXT, "# of Polls" INTEGER, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper" TEXT, "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones" TEXT, "Methodology" TEXT, "Banned by 538" TEXT, "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus" REAL, "Predictive Plus-Minus" REAL, "538 Grade" TEXT, "Mean-Reverted Bias" TEXT, "Races Called Correctly" TEXT, "Misses Outside MOE" TEXT, "Simple Average Error" REAL, "Simple Expected Error" REAL, "Simple Plus-Minus" REAL, "Advanced Plus-Minus" REAL, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus" REAL, "Predictive Plus-Minus" REAL, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis" INTEGER, "Bias" TEXT, "Mean-Reverted Bias.1" TEXT, "House Effect" TEXT );