FiveThirtyEight's Pollster Ratings: raw-polls.csv

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This directory contains the data behind FiveThirtyEight's pollster ratings.

See also:

Past data:

pollster-stats-full.xlsx contains a spreadsheet with all of the summary data and calculations involved in determining the pollster ratings as well as descriptions for each column.

pollster-ratings.csv has ratings and calculations for each pollster. A copy of this data and descriptions for each column can also be found in pollster-stats-full.xlsx.

raw-polls.csv contains all of the polls analyzed to give each pollster a grade. Descriptions for each column are in the table below.

Header Definition
pollno FiveThirtyEight poll ID number
race Election polled
year Year of election (not year of poll)
location Location (state or Congressional district, or "US" for national polls)
type_simple Type of election (5 categories)
type_detail Detailed type of election (this distinguishes between Republican and Democratic primaries, for example, whereas type_simple does not)
pollster Pollster name
methodology Methodology used to conduct this poll. One or more of the following values:
  • Live Phone — Live telephone interviews, may or may not include calls to cell phones
  • IVR — Interactive voice response, otherwise known as automated polls or "robopolls"
  • Mail— By U.S. mail or other “snail mail” service
  • Online— Poll conducted by Internet; generally this mean by web browser, or application-based polling of mobile phones
  • Text — Poll conducted by text message
  • Face-to-face — Poll conducted in person
Mixed method polls list the methods involved in the poll separated by slashes.
partisan Flag for internal/partisan poll. "D" indicates Democratic poll, "R" indicates Republican poll, "I" indicates poll put out by independent candidate's campaign. Note that different sources define these categories differently and our categorization will often reflect the original source's definition. In other words, these definitions may be inconsistent and should be used carefully.
polldate Median field date of the poll
samplesize Sample size of the poll. Where missing, this is estimated from the poll's margin of error, or similar polls conducted by the same polling firm. A sample size of 600 is used if no better estimate is available.
cand1_name Name of Candidate #1. Candidates #1 and #2 are defined as the top two finishers in the election (regardless of whether or not they were the top two candidates in the poll). In races where a Democrat and a Republican were the top two finishers, Candidate #1 is the Democrat.
cand1_party Name of Candidate #1. Candidates #1 and #2 are defined as the top two finishers in the election (regardless of whether or not they were the top two candidates in the poll). In races where a Democrat and a Republican were the top two finishers, Candidate #1 is the Democrat.
cand1_pct Candidate #1's share of the vote in the poll.
cand2_name Name of Candidate #2. Candidates #1 and #2 are defined as the top two finishers in the election (regardless of whether or not they were the top two candidates in the poll). In races where a Democrat and a Republican were the top two finishers, Candidate #2 is the Republican.
cand2_party Party of Candidate #2.
cand2_pct Candidate #2's share of the vote in the poll.
cand3_pct Share of the vote for the top candidate listed in the poll, other than Candidate #1 and Candidate #2.
margin_poll Projected margin of victory (defeat) for Candidate #1. This is calculated as cand1_pct - cand2_pct. In races between a Democrat and a Republican, positive values indicate a Democratic lead; negative values a Repubican lead.
electiondate Date of election
cand1_actual Actual share of vote for Candidate #1
cand2_actual Actual share of vote for Candidate #2
margin_actual Actual margin in the election. This is calculated as cand1_actual - cand2_actual. In races between a Democrat and a Republican, positive values indicate a Democratic win; negative values a Republican win.
error Absolute value of the difference between the actual and polled result. This is calculated as abs(margin_poll - margin_actual)
bias Statistical bias of the poll. This is calculated only for races in which the top two finishers were a Democrat and a Republican. It is calculated as margin_poll - margin_actual. Positive values indicate a Democratic bias (the Democrat did better in the poll than the election). Negative values indicate a Republican bias.
rightcall Flag to indicate whether the pollster called the outcome correctly, i.e. whether the candidate they had listed in 1st place won the election. A 1 indicates a correct call and a 0 an incorrect call; 0.5 indicates that the pollster had two or more candidates tied for the lead and one of the tied candidates won.
comment Additional information, such as alternate names for the poll.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette

10,776 rows

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Suggested facets: year, type_simple, type_detail, methodology, partisan, cand1_party, cand2_party, rightcall

Link rowid ▼ poll_id question_id race_id year race location type_simple type_detail pollster pollster_rating_id methodology partisan polldate samplesize cand1_name cand1_id cand1_party cand1_pct cand2_name cand2_id cand2_party cand2_pct cand3_pct margin_poll electiondate cand1_actual cand2_actual margin_actual error bias rightcall advancedplusminus comment
1 1 26013 87909 1455 1998 1998_Gov-G_NY NY Gov-G Gov-G Blum & Weprin Associates 32 Live Phone   10/13/1998 364.0 Peter Vallone 13080 DEM 26.0 George Pataki 13083 REP 57.0 9.0 -31.0 11/3/1998 33.16 54.32 -21.15 9.85 -9.85 1.0 1.46156109818919 for New York Daily News | WABC-TV (New York)
2 2 26255 87926 1456 1998 1998_Gov-G_OH OH Gov-G Gov-G University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll) 346 Live Phone   10/13/1998 540.0 Lee Fisher 13085 DEM 37.0 Bob Taft 13086 REP 52.0   -15.0 11/3/1998 44.69 50.05 -5.36 9.64 -9.64 1.0 4.285788832043713  
3 3 26026 31266 1736 1998 1998_Sen-G_NV NV Sen-G Sen-G FM3 Research 91 Live Phone D 10/13/1998 488.0 Harry Reid 3964 DEM 49.0 John Ensign 3965 REP 44.0   5.0 11/3/1998 47.86 47.77 0.09 4.91 4.91 1.0 -1.023783833419476 for unspecified Democratic sponsor
4 4 26013 31253 1738 1998 1998_Sen-G_NY NY Sen-G Sen-G Blum & Weprin Associates 32 Live Phone   10/13/1998 364.0 Charles E. Schumer 3966 DEM 44.0 Alfonse M. D'Amato 3967 REP 52.0   -8.0 11/3/1998 54.62 44.08 10.54 18.54 -18.54 0.0 10.06410362547784 for New York Daily News | WABC-TV (New York)
5 5 63632 117103 1738 1998 1998_Sen-G_NY NY Sen-G Sen-G Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group 113 Live Phone D 10/13/1998 902.0 Charles E. Schumer 3966 DEM 46.0 Alfonse M. D'Amato 3967 REP 42.0   4.0 11/3/1998 54.62 44.08 10.54 6.54 -6.54 1.0 -1.972390679465864 for Charles E. Schumer
6 6 26255 31495 1741 1998 1998_Sen-G_OH OH Sen-G Sen-G University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll) 346 Live Phone   10/13/1998 540.0 Mary Boyle 3969 DEM 34.0 George V. Voinovich 3968 REP 62.0   -28.0 11/3/1998 43.53 56.46 -12.93 15.07 -15.07 1.0 7.802559515861351  
7 7 64053 117875 1966 1998 1998_House-G_ID-1 ID-1 House-G House-G Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group 113 Live Phone D 10/13/1998 372.0 Dan Williams 13924 DEM 44.0 Helen Chenoweth 13925 REP 42.0   2.0 11/3/1998 44.73 55.27 -10.53 12.53 12.53 0.0 4.738113022542788 for Richard Stallings
8 8 64053 117876 1967 1998 1998_House-G_ID-2 ID-2 House-G House-G Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group 113 Live Phone D 10/13/1998 400.0 Richard Stallings 13926 DEM 42.0 Mike Simpson 13927 REP 36.0   6.0 11/3/1998 44.69 52.51 -7.82 13.82 13.82 0.0 6.113068143316237 for Richard Stallings
9 9 28268 33546 8661 1998 1998_House-G_US US House-G House-G CBS News/The New York Times 36 Live Phone   10/13/1998 600.0 Generic Candidate 13752 DEM 48.0 Generic Candidate 13753 REP 46.0   2.0 11/3/1998 47.13 48.02 -0.89 2.89 2.89 0.0 -2.724108175649672 sample size unavailable; estimated at 600 as a default
10 10 28267 33545 8661 1998 1998_House-G_US US House-G House-G Zogby Interactive/JZ Analytics 395 Live Phone   10/13/1998 864.0 Generic Candidate 13752 DEM 39.0 Generic Candidate 13753 REP 36.0   3.0 11/3/1998 47.13 48.02 -0.89 3.89 3.89 0.0 -1.268250015299009  
11 11 54202 87738 1435 1998 1998_Gov-G_AZ AZ Gov-G Gov-G Behavior Research Center (Rocky Mountain Poll) 27 Live Phone   10/14/1998 519.0 Paul Johnson 13009 DEM 31.0 Jane Hull 13012 REP 53.0   -22.0 11/3/1998 35.53 60.95 -25.42 3.42 3.42 1.0 -3.329042450408335  
12 12 54291 87827 1443 1998 1998_Gov-G_IL IL Gov-G Gov-G WCIA-TV 373 Live Phone   10/14/1998 401.0 Glenn Poshard 13043 DEM 32.0 George Ryan 13044 REP 58.0   -26.0 11/3/1998 47.46 51.03 -3.57 22.43 -22.43 1.0 13.03403803396177  
13 13 54273 87809 1444 1998 1998_Gov-G_IA IA Gov-G Gov-G Drake Research & Strategy, Inc. 329 Live Phone D 10/14/1998 408.0 Tom Vilsack 13039 DEM 40.0 Jim Lightfoot 13036 REP 48.0   -8.0 11/3/1998 52.3 46.51 5.8 13.8 -13.8 0.0 5.071033845698524 for Tom Vilsack
14 14 54346 87882 1451 1998 1998_Gov-G_NE NE Gov-G Gov-G Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy 197 Live Phone   10/14/1998 828.0 Bill Hoppner 13067 DEM 34.0 Mike Johanns 13066 REP 54.0   -20.0 11/3/1998 45.98 53.9 -7.93 12.07 -12.07 1.0 5.310639447157964  
15 15 26233 87975 1466 1998 1998_Gov-G_WI WI Gov-G Gov-G St. Norbert College 313 Live Phone   10/14/1998 415.0 Ed Garvey 13127 DEM 28.0 Tommy Thompson 13128 REP 63.0   -35.0 11/3/1998 38.7 59.66 -20.97 14.03 -14.03 1.0 4.678346179679724  
16 16 54202 119959 1719 1998 1998_Sen-G_AZ AZ Sen-G Sen-G Behavior Research Center (Rocky Mountain Poll) 27 Live Phone   10/14/1998 519.0 Edward Ranger 13708 DEM 18.0 John McCain 13709 REP 60.0   -42.0 11/3/1998 27.16 68.74 -41.58 0.42 -0.42 1.0 -5.928634439125918  
17 17 54291 117514 1728 1998 1998_Sen-G_IL IL Sen-G Sen-G WCIA-TV 373 Live Phone   10/14/1998 401.0 Carol Moseley-Braun 3943 DEM 37.0 Peter G. Fitzgerald 3944 REP 54.0   -17.0 11/3/1998 47.44 50.35 -2.9 14.1 -14.1 1.0 5.191742110476215  
18 18 26233 31473 1750 1998 1998_Sen-G_WI WI Sen-G Sen-G St. Norbert College 313 Live Phone   10/14/1998 415.0 Russ Feingold 3986 DEM 47.0 Mark W. Neumann 3987 REP 40.0   7.0 11/3/1998 50.55 48.4 2.15 4.85 4.85 1.0 0.3665351806982198  
19 19 64150 118025 2078 1998 1998_House-G_MT-1 MT-1 House-G House-G Moore Information 217 Live Phone R 10/14/1998 400.0 Dusty Deschamps 14012 DEM 36.0 Richard A. Hill 14013 REP 51.0   -15.0 11/3/1998 44.36 53.01 -8.65 6.35 -6.35 1.0 -0.4199898787920038 for Richard A. Hill
20 20 26285 87910 1455 1998 1998_Gov-G_NY NY Gov-G Gov-G Zogby Interactive/JZ Analytics 395 Live Phone   10/15/1998 706.0 Peter Vallone 13080 DEM 21.0 George Pataki 13083 REP 53.0 7.0 -32.0 11/3/1998 33.16 54.32 -21.15 10.85 -10.85 1.0 3.026761390102641  
21 21 26262 87974 1466 1998 1998_Gov-G_WI WI Gov-G Gov-G University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee 366 Live Phone   10/15/1998 269.0 Ed Garvey 13127 DEM 35.0 Tommy Thompson 13128 REP 59.0   -24.0 11/3/1998 38.7 59.66 -20.97 3.03 -3.03 1.0 -8.077003740213371  
22 22 26249 31489 1725 1998 1998_Sen-G_GA GA Sen-G Sen-G University of Georgia Survey Research Center 674 Live Phone   10/15/1998 500.0 Michael J. Coles 3935 DEM 29.0 Paul Coverdell 3934 REP 46.0   -17.0 11/3/1998 45.15 52.37 -7.22 9.78 -9.78 1.0 2.459018206919318  
23 23 26285 31525 1738 1998 1998_Sen-G_NY NY Sen-G Sen-G Zogby Interactive/JZ Analytics 395 Live Phone   10/15/1998 706.0 Charles E. Schumer 3966 DEM 37.0 Alfonse M. D'Amato 3967 REP 42.0   -5.0 11/3/1998 54.62 44.08 10.54 15.54 -15.54 0.0 7.583380491856939  
24 24 26262 31502 1750 1998 1998_Sen-G_WI WI Sen-G Sen-G University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee 366 Live Phone   10/15/1998 286.0 Russ Feingold 3986 DEM 46.0 Mark W. Neumann 3987 REP 44.0   2.0 11/3/1998 50.55 48.4 2.15 0.15 -0.15 1.0 -4.715521151873867  
25 25 64394 118462 2140 1998 1998_House-G_NC-8 NC-8 House-G House-G Wirthlin Worldwide 387 Live Phone R 10/15/1998 505.0 Mike Taylor 14449 DEM 39.0 Robert C. Hayes 14450 REP 51.0   -12.0 11/3/1998 48.17 50.71 -2.54 9.46 -9.46 1.0 1.870602523474384 for Robert C. Hayes
26 26 28266 117593 8661 1998 1998_House-G_US US House-G House-G Yankelovich Partners Inc. 390 Live Phone   10/15/1998 442.0 Generic Candidate 13752 DEM 47.0 Generic Candidate 13753 REP 47.0   0.0 11/3/1998 47.13 48.02 -0.89 0.89 0.89 0.5 -4.830103239262593 for CNN | Time
27 27 54224 87760 1437 1998 1998_Gov-G_CO CO Gov-G Gov-G Public Opinion Strategies 260 Live Phone   10/16/1998 500.0 Gail Schoettler 13022 DEM 39.0 William F. Owens 13021 REP 43.0   -4.0 11/3/1998 48.42 49.04 -0.62 3.38 -3.38 1.0 -2.182606287811707  
28 28 26208 87770 1438 1998 1998_Gov-G_CT CT Gov-G Gov-G Quinnipiac University 267 Live Phone   10/16/1998 683.0 Barbara Kennelly 13024 DEM 24.0 John Rowland 13027 REP 72.0   -48.0 11/3/1998 35.44 62.9 -27.46 20.54 -20.54 1.0 13.30009503805124 among registered voters
29 29 26147 87858 1447 1998 1998_Gov-G_MD MD Gov-G Gov-G Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy 197 Live Phone   10/16/1998 828.0 Parris Glendening 13054 DEM 46.0 Ellen Sauerbrey 13053 REP 44.0   2.0 11/3/1998 55.14 44.82 10.33 8.33 -8.33 1.0 -0.2931101026838275  
30 30 26208 31448 1723 1998 1998_Sen-G_CT CT Sen-G Sen-G Quinnipiac University 267 Live Phone   10/16/1998 1247.0 Christopher J. Dodd 3930 DEM 61.0 Gary A. Franks 3931 REP 29.0   32.0 11/3/1998 65.15 32.37 32.78 0.78 -0.78 1.0 -5.392464987085035 among registered voters
31 31 26250 31490 1728 1998 1998_Sen-G_IL IL Sen-G Sen-G University of Illinois at Chicago 352 Live Phone   10/16/1998 597.0 Carol Moseley-Braun 3943 DEM 31.0 Peter G. Fitzgerald 3944 REP 48.0   -17.0 11/3/1998 47.44 50.35 -2.9 14.1 -14.1 1.0 5.885395861681104  
32 32 26147 31387 1734 1998 1998_Sen-G_MD MD Sen-G Sen-G Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy 197 Live Phone   10/16/1998 821.0 Barbara A. Mikulski 3954 DEM 67.0 Ross Z. Pierpont 3955 REP 26.0   41.0 11/3/1998 70.5 29.5 41.01 0.01 -0.01 1.0 -5.012298541487291  
33 33 28265 33543 8661 1998 1998_House-G_US US House-G House-G Hill Research Consultants 140 Live Phone   10/16/1998 600.0 Generic Candidate 13752 DEM 41.0 Generic Candidate 13753 REP 38.0   3.0 11/3/1998 47.13 48.02 -0.89 3.89 3.89 0.0 -1.247041580842308  
34 34 28264 117577 8661 1998 1998_House-G_US US House-G House-G Pew Research Center 253 Live Phone   10/16/1998 743.0 Generic Candidate 13752 DEM 43.0 Generic Candidate 13753 REP 48.0   -5.0 11/3/1998 47.13 48.02 -0.89 4.11 -4.11 1.0 -0.8564639636127195  
35 35 54213 87749 1436 1998 1998_Gov-G_CA CA Gov-G Gov-G Field Research Corp. (Field Poll) 94 Live Phone   10/17/1998 809.0 Joseph 'Gray' Davis, Jr. 13015 DEM 50.0 Dan Lungren 13016 REP 43.0   7.0 11/3/1998 57.97 38.38 19.59 12.59 -12.59 1.0 4.901204238854257  
36 36 54246 87782 1439 1998 1998_Gov-G_FL FL Gov-G Gov-G Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy 197 Live Phone   10/17/1998 822.0 Buddy MacKay 13029 DEM 41.0 Jeb Bush 13028 REP 51.0   -10.0 11/3/1998 44.72 55.27 -10.55 0.55 0.55 1.0 -3.050028594248628  
37 37 54342 87878 1450 1998 1998_Gov-G_MN MN Gov-G Gov-G Star Tribune (Minnesota Poll) 315 Live Phone   10/17/1998 1007.0 Jesse Ventura 13065 REF 21.0 Norm Coleman 13062 REP 34.0 35.0 -13.0 11/3/1998 37.0 34.29 2.7 15.7   0.0 8.698483131068867  
38 38 54354 87890 1453 1998 1998_Gov-G_NH NH Gov-G Gov-G Becker Institute 26 Live Phone   10/17/1998 355.0 Jeanne Shaheen 13069 DEM 67.0 Jay Lucas 13068 REP 22.0   45.0 11/3/1998 66.08 30.88 35.21 9.79 9.79 1.0 1.991461223954138  
39 39 26113 31353 1724 1998 1998_Sen-G_FL FL Sen-G Sen-G Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy 197 Live Phone   10/17/1998 836.0 Bob Graham 3932 DEM 58.0 Charlie Crist 3933 REP 32.0   26.0 11/3/1998 62.47 37.53 24.94 1.06 1.06 1.0 -5.525559215220479  
40 40 64109 117952 1910 1998 1998_House-G_CA-46 CA-46 House-G House-G Los Angeles Times 172 Live Phone   10/17/1998 1000.0 Loretta Sanchez 13989 DEM 48.0 Robert K. Dornan 13990 REP 34.0   14.0 11/3/1998 56.43 39.28 17.15 3.15 -3.15 1.0 -4.13785652429881  
41 41 64137 118009 1997 1998 1998_House-G_IN-10 IN-10 House-G House-G Massie & Associates 199 Live Phone R 10/17/1998 300.0 Julia M. Carson 14069 DEM 37.0 Gary Anthony Hofmeister 14071 REP 38.0   -1.0 11/3/1998 58.34 39.37 18.98 19.98 -19.98 0.0 12.27408340067099 for Gary Anthony Hofmeister
42 42 36811 33541 8661 1998 1998_House-G_US US House-G House-G ABC News/The Washington Post 3 Live Phone   10/17/1998 548.0 Generic Candidate 13752 DEM 48.0 Generic Candidate 13753 REP 47.0   1.0 11/3/1998 47.13 48.02 -0.89 1.89 1.89 0.0 -3.243311497931875 for The Washington Post
43 43 54265 87801 1441 1998 1998_Gov-G_HI HI Gov-G Gov-G Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy 197 Live Phone   10/18/1998 406.0 Benjamin Cayetano 13033 DEM 37.0 Linda Lingle 13035 REP 52.0   -15.0 11/3/1998 50.11 48.82 1.29 16.29 -16.29 0.0 8.687904817899797  
44 44 54358 87894 1454 1998 1998_Gov-G_NM NM Gov-G Gov-G Research & Polling Inc. 280 Live Phone   10/18/1998 916.0 Martin Chavez 13072 DEM 39.0 Gary Johnson 13071 REP 49.0   -10.0 11/3/1998 45.47 54.53 -9.06 0.94 -0.94 1.0 -5.133178004203567  
45 45 26050 87927 1456 1998 1998_Gov-G_OH OH Gov-G Gov-G Gordon S. Black Corp. 123 Live Phone   10/18/1998 1012.0 Lee Fisher 13085 DEM 28.0 Bob Taft 13086 REP 36.0   -8.0 11/3/1998 44.69 50.05 -5.36 2.64 -2.64 1.0 -3.196020226415996  
46 46 54412 87948 1460 1998 1998_Gov-G_RI RI Gov-G Gov-G KRC Research 160 Live Phone   10/18/1998 400.0 Myrth York 13104 DEM 45.0 Lincoln Almond 13105 REP 47.0   -2.0 11/3/1998 42.13 50.97 -8.84 6.84 6.84 1.0 -0.0847954508424319  
47 47 26243 31483 1732 1998 1998_Sen-G_KY KY Sen-G Sen-G TMR Research 328 Live Phone   10/18/1998 800.0 Scotty Baesler 3951 DEM 44.0 Jim Bunning 3950 REP 39.0   5.0 11/3/1998 49.16 49.75 -0.59 5.59 5.59 0.0 0.3718173859040087  
48 48 26050 31290 1741 1998 1998_Sen-G_OH OH Sen-G Sen-G Gordon S. Black Corp. 123 Live Phone   10/18/1998 1012.0 Mary Boyle 3969 DEM 28.0 George V. Voinovich 3968 REP 51.0   -23.0 11/3/1998 43.53 56.46 -12.93 10.07 -10.07 1.0 1.967047850035997  
49 49 26244 31484 1742 1998 1998_Sen-G_OK OK Sen-G Sen-G Tulsa Surveys 341 Live Phone   10/18/1998 750.0 Don Carroll 3971 DEM 16.0 Don Nickles 3970 REP 63.0   -47.0 11/3/1998 31.28 66.38 -35.1 11.9 -11.9 1.0 4.370622264008132 among all adults
50 50 54265 117965 1964 1998 1998_House-G_HI-1 HI-1 House-G House-G Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy 197 Live Phone   10/18/1998 221.0 Neil Abercrombie 14010 DEM 50.0 Gene Ward 14011 REP 36.0   14.0 11/3/1998 61.56 36.35 25.21 11.21 -11.21 1.0 3.200057927892256  
51 51 26243 118432 2012 1998 1998_House-G_KY-6 KY-6 House-G House-G TMR Research 328 Live Phone   10/18/1998 700.0 Ernesto Scorsone 14438 DEM 44.0 Ernie Fletcher 14439 REP 41.0   3.0 11/3/1998 45.95 53.11 -7.15 10.15 10.15 0.0 2.799413297369391  
52 52 64392 118460 2145 1998 1998_House-G_ND-1 ND-1 House-G House-G WPA Intelligence (WPAi) 383 Live Phone R 10/18/1998 300.0 Earl Pomeroy 14447 DEM 49.0 Kevin Cramer 14448 REP 40.0   9.0 11/3/1998 56.21 41.11 15.11 6.11 -6.11 1.0 -1.667793513850144 for unspecified Republican sponsor
53 53 64108 117951 2260 1998 1998_House-G_WA-1 WA-1 House-G House-G Lauer, Lalley, Victoria 168 Live Phone D 10/18/1998 368.0 Jay Robert Inslee 13986 DEM 43.0 Richard Alan White 13987 REP 39.0 5.0 4.0 11/3/1998 49.77 44.12 5.66 1.66 -1.66 1.0 -4.423442351258791 for unspecified Democratic sponsor
54 54 26068 87750 1436 1998 1998_Gov-G_CA CA Gov-G Gov-G Los Angeles Times 172 Live Phone   10/19/1998 883.0 Joseph 'Gray' Davis, Jr. 13015 DEM 53.0 Dan Lungren 13016 REP 42.0   11.0 11/3/1998 57.97 38.38 19.59 8.59 -8.59 1.0 0.6355456852346094  
55 55 26083 87828 1443 1998 1998_Gov-G_IL IL Gov-G Gov-G Market Shares Corp. 187 Live Phone   10/19/1998 1099.0 Glenn Poshard 13043 DEM 34.0 George Ryan 13044 REP 49.0   -15.0 11/3/1998 47.46 51.03 -3.57 11.43 -11.43 1.0 2.601447730986136  
56 56 54305 87841 1448 1998 1998_Gov-G_MA MA Gov-G Gov-G Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy 197 Live Phone   10/19/1998 625.0 Scott Harshbarger 13052 DEM 41.0 A. Paul Cellucci 13051 REP 46.0   -5.0 11/3/1998 47.38 50.81 -3.43 1.57 -1.57 1.0 -4.371475183720404  
57 57 26068 31308 1721 1998 1998_Sen-G_CA CA Sen-G Sen-G Los Angeles Times 172 Live Phone   10/19/1998 883.0 Barbara Boxer 3926 DEM 49.0 Matt Fong 3927 REP 44.0   5.0 11/3/1998 53.06 43.01 10.05 5.05 -5.05 1.0 -0.9439473135298933  
58 58 26083 31323 1728 1998 1998_Sen-G_IL IL Sen-G Sen-G Market Shares Corp. 187 Live Phone   10/19/1998 1099.0 Carol Moseley-Braun 3943 DEM 38.0 Peter G. Fitzgerald 3944 REP 48.0   -10.0 11/3/1998 47.44 50.35 -2.9 7.1 -7.1 1.0 -0.8649708371683124  
59 59 28262 33540 8661 1998 1998_House-G_US US House-G House-G Wirthlin Worldwide 387 Live Phone   10/19/1998 416.0 Generic Candidate 13752 DEM 41.0 Generic Candidate 13753 REP 45.0   -4.0 11/3/1998 47.13 48.02 -0.89 3.11 -3.11 1.0 -2.1258408613009  
60 60 54203 87739 1435 1998 1998_Gov-G_AZ AZ Gov-G Gov-G Harris Insights & Analytics 133 Live Phone   10/20/1998 732.0 Paul Johnson 13009 DEM 35.0 Jane Hull 13012 REP 55.0   -20.0 11/3/1998 35.53 60.95 -25.42 5.42 5.42 1.0 -0.1675611788078893  
61 61 54215 87751 1436 1998 1998_Gov-G_CA CA Gov-G Gov-G Harris Insights & Analytics 133 Live Phone   10/20/1998 4531.0 Joseph 'Gray' Davis, Jr. 13015 DEM 50.0 Dan Lungren 13016 REP 39.0   11.0 11/3/1998 57.97 38.38 19.59 8.59 -8.59 1.0 0.8217035967999122  
62 62 54225 87761 1437 1998 1998_Gov-G_CO CO Gov-G Gov-G Harris Insights & Analytics 133 Live Phone   10/20/1998 614.0 Gail Schoettler 13022 DEM 46.0 William F. Owens 13021 REP 43.0   3.0 11/3/1998 48.42 49.04 -0.62 3.62 3.62 0.0 -1.725613618714821  
63 63 54247 87783 1439 1998 1998_Gov-G_FL FL Gov-G Gov-G Harris Insights & Analytics 133 Live Phone   10/20/1998 2295.0 Buddy MacKay 13029 DEM 40.0 Jeb Bush 13028 REP 56.0   -16.0 11/3/1998 44.72 55.27 -10.55 5.45 -5.45 1.0 3.065082860581476  
64 64 54259 87795 1440 1998 1998_Gov-G_GA GA Gov-G Gov-G Harris Insights & Analytics 133 Live Phone   10/20/1998 1174.0 Roy Barnes 13031 DEM 42.0 Guy Millner 13032 REP 47.0   -5.0 11/3/1998 52.49 44.08 8.42 13.42 -13.42 0.0 5.64194793006927  
65 65 54293 87829 1443 1998 1998_Gov-G_IL IL Gov-G Gov-G Harris Insights & Analytics 133 Live Phone   10/20/1998 1209.0 Glenn Poshard 13043 DEM 37.0 George Ryan 13044 REP 55.0   -18.0 11/3/1998 47.46 51.03 -3.57 14.43 -14.43 1.0 5.964362174038405  
66 66 54294 87830 1443 1998 1998_Gov-G_IL IL Gov-G Gov-G KRC Research 160 Live Phone   10/20/1998 400.0 Glenn Poshard 13043 DEM 42.0 George Ryan 13044 REP 44.0   -2.0 11/3/1998 47.46 51.03 -3.57 1.57 1.57 1.0 -8.663660332104467 for Chicago Sun-Times
67 67 54274 87810 1444 1998 1998_Gov-G_IA IA Gov-G Gov-G Drake Research & Strategy, Inc. 329 Live Phone D 10/20/1998 408.0 Tom Vilsack 13039 DEM 44.0 Jim Lightfoot 13036 REP 46.0   -2.0 11/3/1998 52.3 46.51 5.8 7.8 -7.8 0.0 -0.6924622905774124 for Tom Vilsack
68 68 54323 87859 1447 1998 1998_Gov-G_MD MD Gov-G Gov-G ABC News/The Washington Post 3 Live Phone   10/20/1998 919.0 Parris Glendening 13054 DEM 49.0 Ellen Sauerbrey 13053 REP 44.0   5.0 11/3/1998 55.14 44.82 10.33 5.33 -5.33 1.0 -2.834742338761064 for The Washington Post
69 69 54324 87860 1447 1998 1998_Gov-G_MD MD Gov-G Gov-G Harris Insights & Analytics 133 Live Phone   10/20/1998 911.0 Parris Glendening 13054 DEM 42.0 Ellen Sauerbrey 13053 REP 55.0   -13.0 11/3/1998 55.14 44.82 10.33 23.33 -23.33 0.0 17.18961979876772  
70 70 54306 87842 1448 1998 1998_Gov-G_MA MA Gov-G Gov-G Harris Insights & Analytics 133 Live Phone   10/20/1998 907.0 Scott Harshbarger 13052 DEM 36.0 A. Paul Cellucci 13051 REP 56.0   -20.0 11/3/1998 47.38 50.81 -3.43 16.57 -16.57 1.0 12.63738713943959  
71 71 54307 87843 1448 1998 1998_Gov-G_MA MA Gov-G Gov-G RKM Research and Communications Inc. 272 Live Phone   10/20/1998 402.0 Scott Harshbarger 13052 DEM 41.0 A. Paul Cellucci 13051 REP 46.0   -5.0 11/3/1998 47.38 50.81 -3.43 1.57 -1.57 1.0 -4.450769969215695  
72 72 54334 87870 1449 1998 1998_Gov-G_MI MI Gov-G Gov-G Harris Insights & Analytics 133 Live Phone   10/20/1998 1535.0 Geoffrey Fieger 13061 DEM 36.0 John Engler 13060 REP 51.0   -15.0 11/3/1998 37.78 62.2 -24.43 9.43 9.43 1.0 3.34447325044613  
73 73 54359 87895 1454 1998 1998_Gov-G_NM NM Gov-G Gov-G Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy 197 Live Phone   10/20/1998 409.0 Martin Chavez 13072 DEM 43.0 Gary Johnson 13071 REP 47.0   -4.0 11/3/1998 45.47 54.53 -9.06 5.06 5.06 1.0 -0.6002455796993572  
74 74 54375 87911 1455 1998 1998_Gov-G_NY NY Gov-G Gov-G Harris Insights & Analytics 133 Live Phone   10/20/1998 1792.0 Peter Vallone 13080 DEM 24.0 George Pataki 13083 REP 48.0 15.0 -24.0 11/3/1998 33.16 54.32 -21.15 2.85 -2.85 1.0 -5.606533560322646  
75 75 54392 87928 1456 1998 1998_Gov-G_OH OH Gov-G Gov-G Harris Insights & Analytics 133 Live Phone   10/20/1998 1793.0 Lee Fisher 13085 DEM 39.0 Bob Taft 13086 REP 50.0   -11.0 11/3/1998 44.69 50.05 -5.36 5.64 -5.64 1.0 0.0372232529425493  
76 76 54406 87942 1459 1998 1998_Gov-G_PA PA Gov-G Gov-G Harris Insights & Analytics 133 Live Phone   10/20/1998 1611.0 Ivan Itkin 13100 DEM 16.0 Thomas Ridge 13098 REP 64.0 12.0 -48.0 11/3/1998 31.03 57.42 -26.38 21.62 -21.62 1.0 12.70240028200232  
77 77 54424 87960 1464 1998 1998_Gov-G_TX TX Gov-G Gov-G Harris Insights & Analytics 133 Live Phone   10/20/1998 3248.0 Garry Mauro 13118 DEM 22.0 George W. Bush 13119 REP 73.0   -51.0 11/3/1998 31.18 68.24 -37.06 13.94 -13.94 1.0 6.37405375094831  
78 78 54203 117111 1719 1998 1998_Sen-G_AZ AZ Sen-G Sen-G Harris Insights & Analytics 133 Live Phone   10/20/1998 732.0 Edward Ranger 13708 DEM 18.0 John McCain 13709 REP 66.0   -48.0 11/3/1998 27.16 68.74 -41.58 6.42 -6.42 1.0 1.617463251472199  
79 79 54215 117114 1721 1998 1998_Sen-G_CA CA Sen-G Sen-G Harris Insights & Analytics 133 Live Phone   10/20/1998 4531.0 Barbara Boxer 3926 DEM 46.0 Matt Fong 3927 REP 45.0   1.0 11/3/1998 53.06 43.01 10.05 9.05 -9.05 1.0 4.175167835353045  
80 80 54225 117116 1722 1998 1998_Sen-G_CO CO Sen-G Sen-G Harris Insights & Analytics 133 Live Phone   10/20/1998 614.0 Dottie Lamm 3929 DEM 37.0 Ben Nighthorse Campbell 3928 REP 55.0   -18.0 11/3/1998 35.02 62.49 -27.47 9.47 9.47 1.0 4.615934486225994  
81 81 54247 117118 1724 1998 1998_Sen-G_FL FL Sen-G Sen-G Harris Insights & Analytics 133 Live Phone   10/20/1998 2295.0 Bob Graham 3932 DEM 60.0 Charlie Crist 3933 REP 31.0   29.0 11/3/1998 62.47 37.53 24.94 4.06 4.06 1.0 -1.966727393582624  
82 82 54259 117121 1725 1998 1998_Sen-G_GA GA Sen-G Sen-G Harris Insights & Analytics 133 Live Phone   10/20/1998 1174.0 Michael J. Coles 3935 DEM 37.0 Paul Coverdell 3934 REP 53.0   -16.0 11/3/1998 45.15 52.37 -7.22 8.78 -8.78 1.0 2.636699836957417  
83 83 54293 117123 1728 1998 1998_Sen-G_IL IL Sen-G Sen-G Harris Insights & Analytics 133 Live Phone   10/20/1998 1209.0 Carol Moseley-Braun 3943 DEM 38.0 Peter G. Fitzgerald 3944 REP 52.0   -14.0 11/3/1998 47.44 50.35 -2.9 11.1 -11.1 1.0 4.218100234959691  
84 84 26063 31303 1728 1998 1998_Sen-G_IL IL Sen-G Sen-G Illinois Wesleyan University 147 Live Phone   10/20/1998 423.0 Carol Moseley-Braun 3943 DEM 31.0 Peter G. Fitzgerald 3944 REP 53.0   -22.0 11/3/1998 47.44 50.35 -2.9 19.1 -19.1 1.0 11.5615221120958  
85 85 54294 117199 1728 1998 1998_Sen-G_IL IL Sen-G Sen-G KRC Research 160 Live Phone   10/20/1998 400.0 Carol Moseley-Braun 3943 DEM 40.0 Peter G. Fitzgerald 3944 REP 50.0   -10.0 11/3/1998 47.44 50.35 -2.9 7.1 -7.1 1.0 -1.343456352287686 for Chicago Sun-Times
86 86 63646 117141 1729 1998 1998_Sen-G_IN IN Sen-G Sen-G Harris Insights & Analytics 133 Live Phone   10/20/1998 831.0 Evan Bayh 3945 DEM 63.0 Paul Helmke 3946 REP 27.0   36.0 11/3/1998 63.72 34.79 28.93 7.07 7.07 1.0 1.190282195638614  
87 87 54324 117125 1734 1998 1998_Sen-G_MD MD Sen-G Sen-G Harris Insights & Analytics 133 Live Phone   10/20/1998 911.0 Barbara A. Mikulski 3954 DEM 67.0 Ross Z. Pierpont 3955 REP 27.0   40.0 11/3/1998 70.5 29.5 41.01 1.01 -1.01 1.0 -3.777611333856804  
88 88 54375 117127 1738 1998 1998_Sen-G_NY NY Sen-G Sen-G Harris Insights & Analytics 133 Live Phone   10/20/1998 1792.0 Charles E. Schumer 3966 DEM 44.0 Alfonse M. D'Amato 3967 REP 46.0   -2.0 11/3/1998 54.62 44.08 10.54 12.54 -12.54 0.0 4.73739365890441  
89 89 63648 117143 1739 1998 1998_Sen-G_NC NC Sen-G Sen-G Harris Insights & Analytics 133 Live Phone   10/20/1998 1163.0 John Edwards 3958 DEM 47.0 Lauch Faircloth 3959 REP 38.0   9.0 11/3/1998 51.15 47.01 4.14 4.86 4.86 1.0 -0.4801811928550558  
90 90 54392 117130 1741 1998 1998_Sen-G_OH OH Sen-G Sen-G Harris Insights & Analytics 133 Live Phone   10/20/1998 1793.0 Mary Boyle 3969 DEM 37.0 George V. Voinovich 3968 REP 55.0   -18.0 11/3/1998 43.53 56.46 -12.93 5.07 -5.07 1.0 -3.749600846564447  
91 91 54406 117132 1744 1998 1998_Sen-G_PA PA Sen-G Sen-G Harris Insights & Analytics 133 Live Phone   10/20/1998 1611.0 Bill Lloyd 3975 DEM 25.0 Arlen Specter 3974 REP 57.0   -32.0 11/3/1998 34.79 61.34 -26.55 5.45 -5.45 1.0 -0.8691950551569506  
92 92 26199 31439 1746 1998 1998_Sen-G_SD SD Sen-G Sen-G NRECA Market Research 223 Live Phone   10/20/1998 500.0 Tom Daschle 3978 DEM 58.0 Ron Schmidt 3979 REP 26.0   32.0 11/3/1998 62.14 36.41 25.73 6.27 6.27 1.0 -1.364873156027169 among registered voters
93 93 63650 117145 1749 1998 1998_Sen-G_WA WA Sen-G Sen-G Harris Insights & Analytics 133 Live Phone   10/20/1998 831.0 Patty Murray 3984 DEM 54.0 Linda Smith 3985 REP 41.0   13.0 11/3/1998 58.41 41.59 16.83 3.83 -3.83 1.0 -3.344326663177348  
94 94 64121 117966 2078 1998 1998_House-G_MT-1 MT-1 House-G House-G Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy 197 Live Phone   10/20/1998 819.0 Dusty Deschamps 14012 DEM 37.0 Richard A. Hill 14013 REP 52.0   -15.0 11/3/1998 44.36 53.01 -8.65 6.35 -6.35 1.0 0.6148464259541278  
95 95 64387 118453 2246 1998 1998_House-G_UT-2 UT-2 House-G House-G Valley Research 368 Live Phone   10/20/1998 452.0 Lily Eskelsen 14441 DEM 42.0 Merrill Cook 14442 REP 41.0   1.0 11/3/1998 43.46 52.76 -9.3 10.3 10.3 0.0 4.998418513060861 for The Salt Lake Tribune
96 96 54186 87721 1433 1998 1998_Gov-G_AL AL Gov-G Gov-G University of South Alabama 361 Live Phone   10/21/1998 820.0 Don Siegelman 13005 DEM 46.0 Forrest H. 'Fob' James, Jr. 13004 REP 32.0   14.0 11/3/1998 57.81 42.19 15.62 1.62 -1.62 1.0 -4.457889919565594  
97 97 54335 87871 1449 1998 1998_Gov-G_MI MI Gov-G Gov-G Mitchell Research & Communications 213 Live Phone   10/21/1998 600.0 Geoffrey Fieger 13061 DEM 30.0 John Engler 13060 REP 62.0   -32.0 11/3/1998 37.78 62.2 -24.43 7.57 -7.57 1.0 1.613795574414598  
98 98 54413 87949 1460 1998 1998_Gov-G_RI RI Gov-G Gov-G KRC Research 160 Live Phone   10/21/1998 400.0 Myrth York 13104 DEM 45.0 Lincoln Almond 13105 REP 40.0 7.0 5.0 11/3/1998 42.13 50.97 -8.84 13.84 13.84 0.0 7.099101055386137  
99 99 26017 31257 1722 1998 1998_Sen-G_CO CO Sen-G Sen-G Ciruli Associates 51 Live Phone   10/21/1998 400.0 Dottie Lamm 3929 DEM 30.0 Ben Nighthorse Campbell 3928 REP 61.0   -31.0 11/3/1998 35.02 62.49 -27.47 3.53 -3.53 1.0 -2.511903348269245  
100 100 63761 117404 1738 1998 1998_Sen-G_NY NY Sen-G Sen-G SurveyUSA 325 IVR   10/21/1998 500.0 Charles E. Schumer 3966 DEM 48.0 Alfonse M. D'Amato 3967 REP 43.0   5.0 11/3/1998 54.62 44.08 10.54 5.54 -5.54 1.0 -2.857282758365126  

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CREATE TABLE "pollster-ratings/raw-polls" (
"poll_id" INTEGER,
  "question_id" INTEGER,
  "race_id" INTEGER,
  "year" INTEGER,
  "race" TEXT,
  "location" TEXT,
  "type_simple" TEXT,
  "type_detail" TEXT,
  "pollster" TEXT,
  "pollster_rating_id" INTEGER,
  "methodology" TEXT,
  "partisan" TEXT,
  "polldate" TEXT,
  "samplesize" REAL,
  "cand1_name" TEXT,
  "cand1_id" INTEGER,
  "cand1_party" TEXT,
  "cand1_pct" REAL,
  "cand2_name" TEXT,
  "cand2_id" INTEGER,
  "cand2_party" TEXT,
  "cand2_pct" REAL,
  "cand3_pct" REAL,
  "margin_poll" REAL,
  "electiondate" TEXT,
  "cand1_actual" REAL,
  "cand2_actual" REAL,
  "margin_actual" REAL,
  "error" REAL,
  "bias" REAL,
  "rightcall" REAL,
  "advancedplusminus" REAL,
  "comment" TEXT
);