Riddler - Solutions to Castles Puzzle: castle-solutions-3.csv
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Link | rowid ▼ | Castle 1 | Castle 2 | Castle 3 | Castle 4 | Castle 5 | Castle 6 | Castle 7 | Castle 8 | Castle 9 | Castle 10 | Why did you choose your troop deployment? |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
101 | 101 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 21 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 22 | Last times winner but more even alignment |
102 | 102 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 34 | 39 | Ties are wins |
103 | 103 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 36 | 36 | 12 | 2 | 7 and 8 seem like a sweet spot for points vs competition, and I want to put in enough to beat most people who came to the same conclusion. At the same time, I want to make sure I don't get beaten by tiny troop commitments to the other castles. I figured 9 would be a nice bonus to sometimes get. |
104 | 104 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 1 | 2 | 27 | 30 | Based on the last two games, those with less troops were overwhelmed. I figure most people will leave 9 and 10 relatively open, and 1-5 will be given 4, to take out the 3's from round 2. Let's see what happens! |
105 | 105 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 4 | 18 | 15 | 3 | 15 | 4 | 21 | Randomish |
106 | 106 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 28 | 6 | 9 | 18 | 12 | Troop deployments to low point castles are just enough to tie up enemy troops while focusing on the mid to upper range castles that are worth the most. Don't over dedicate to 10 as people are drawn to the easy number. |
107 | 107 | 1 | 9 | 20 | 29 | 15 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 1 | Distribute to all, try to find a place where numbers will be thin. |
108 | 108 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 26 | 10 | 15 | 15 | 26 | 2 | The total point possibility is 55, so you need 28 to win. From there, troop (resource) distribution is a mix of math (what are the best combinations that can lead to 28?) and human behavior speculation (metagaming). Castle 10 is a trap and a good way to get your opponent to waste resources, since they are working with incomplete information, so I threw only 2 troops there (to minimize my investment while hedging against other players who choose 0 or 1). Castles 1-7 add up to 28, so a popular strategy may be to aggressively claim them. The 26 in Castle 5 is designed to disrupt that, as players who go for this strategy may emphasize their investments in Castles 6 and 7, and will be afraid to over-invest in 5 without hedging earlier castles accordingly. Meanwhile, there are enough troops in castles 6-9 to yield likely wins, while hedges in the lower castles may secure additional value. |
109 | 109 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 23 | 24 | 24 | 1 | |
110 | 110 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 16 | 16 | 26 | 16 | 5 | 4 | It seemed to me that the chance of winning castles 9-10 is relatively low, since many warlords will send more troops there. I focused more strength on the mid-range, castles 5-8. chose mostly uneven numbers (rather than rounding at 5, etc) in hopes of beating warlords who divided by 5s or 10s. And I sent at least some troops to every castle, since this guarantees a win against a warlord who sends 0 to any of them-- making that number greater than 1 for each castle, since many players will send a minimal force to those castles. |
111 | 111 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 22 | 1 | 1 | I sacrificed 9 and 10 hoping that my enemy would focus a lot of soldiers on them and instead tried to capture a lot of of the mid value castles. |
112 | 112 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 30 | 25 | Trying to pick up 5, 9 and 10. Get enough value in the early battles to pick up over half the points. |
113 | 113 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 99 | 0 | Just Cause |
114 | 114 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 18 | 22 | 2 | 2 | 55 total points and 100 troops means just fewer than 2 troops per point. Assuming opponent uses same math, I will overemphasize the lesser valued castles and hope she goes big. |
115 | 115 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 20 | 27 | 35 | 1 | 1 | I wanted to win the middle castles |
116 | 116 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 20 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 29 | 30 | I'm dumb |
117 | 117 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 25 | 55 | 1 | |
118 | 118 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 27 | 2 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 2 | 2 | |
119 | 119 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 10 | 13 | 1 | 26 | 30 | 4 | 6 | I took the winning strategy from the first battle royale but then redeployed a few troops from castles 1 & 2 to castles 9 and 10. My thinking is that most players will be trying to beat the winning strategies from game 2, and won't be considering the game 1 strategies as much. Essentially, my hope is that I'll be "zigging" while others are "zagging". |
120 | 120 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 16 | 17 | 16 | 16 | 16 | you need 28 points to win. I maximize my chances of winning 10 points 100% of the time in castles 1-4, concede castle 5, then hope even distribution wins me 3 of 5 in castles 6-10 versus a field that allocates 30 plus to a single castle. |
121 | 121 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 25 | 5 | 5 | 23 | 16 | Using last results. Gave up castle 4 and redistributed higher.. |
122 | 122 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 11 | 3 | 19 | 22 | 4 | 28 | 6 | Choose who I want in my main coalition based on trying to have some overlap and differences with both previous rounds, but come up with 2,4,6,7,9 without too much further thought. Allocate 85% of my army to this coalition to not leave others undefended (except 3, out of spite). |
123 | 123 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 99 | 0 | 0 | You need to get points, and probably the only way to do that is to win a house outright. I am guessing that someone will do 100 for 10 and 9, so guessing 8 will be the one where people don't apply 100. |
124 | 124 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 25 | 25 | 30 | 2 | Maximize the troops that could take 28 points, and the others are 2 to cleanup places where my opponent sent only 1. |
125 | 125 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 10 | 2 | 20 | 20 | 34 | Try to create as many options to get to 28 as possible. Goal is to win 2 out of the top 3 then pickup enough of the rest to get to 28+ |
126 | 126 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 11 | 2 | 22 | 44 | 2 | I was looking for four castles that would add up to 28 points, the minimum required to win. I found I could not do this without castle 9. I chose to leave out castle 7 because 5 and 6 should be easier to get. I sent token forces to 1, 2, 3, 4, 7, and 10 to force my opponent to keep those covered. That left me 88 troops. I sent half of those to castle 9, which I assumed would be contested heavily. Half of what was left was sent to castle 8. The remaining troops were split between 5 and 6. |
127 | 127 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 15 | 17 | 19 | Added up all the VPs to be had (55) took 100 and divided it by 55 (1.8). This is how many soldiers each VP is worth. I then multiplied the castle number by 1.8, rounded and skewed it towards the high end a bit for people who employed the same strategy. |
128 | 128 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 15 | 0 | 20 | 25 | 30 | 0 | 0 | |
129 | 129 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 24 | 26 | 2 | I figured a lot of people would go 10 on each, and this would consistently beat those ones. I also guessed a lot of people would put two on each of the lower ones to beat out the one you are forced to put there, so I made sure to take that into account. The second question for me was the people who went a bunch in top half and left one each to the lower ones so I knew I would need to adjust the numbers to favor something would also win against someone who went 1-1-1-1-1-19-19-19-19-19 because that seemed like it would be like the second most common formidable strategy. The last thing I considered was that because you need 28 points to win and the easiest way to there seems to be 9+8+7+6 the easiest way to get there. I ignore the ten because other people will dump a bunch of points there and either way I will need to get four numbers total as 10+9+8 only gets you to 27. This strategy pretty cleanly beats both those strategies. To beat this you would need to foresee it probably and get 9 at least. I think if you went for a 10-9-8 strategy and just low balled a bunch of other numbers hoping to get one you might beat me but you will lose to everyone playing 10 on everything so I think this is the most stable that I can come up with. |
130 | 130 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 12 | 32 | 3 | 34 | 3 | Lots of folk went for 7-8 or 9-10 previously. I figure few will go for 7-9. With those in the bag, I need another 12 points. I'm hoping for 2-4-6, but also spreading out my options to get lucky against a poorly defended 8, 10, and 5. |
131 | 131 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 6 | 30 | I chose a strategy that could beat each of the top 5 from the last two times, could beat an even distribution, could beat a focused attack at the top, and could beat a (10,0,0,0,0,0,0,30,30,30) strategy. The first strategy I found was (1,2,2,18,1,6,2,33,11,24). Then, I used random sampling to see if I could find strategies that would beat my strategy. Out of a sample of 200, I found 84. I compared these 84 against the original 13 strategies, and found 1 that beat all of them. This strategy was (0,1,1,6,22,12,8,14,6,30). However, your entry form won't let me put 0 for castle 1, so I switched castle 1 and 2. This seems to work just fine as well. |
132 | 132 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 28 | 32 | 10 | |
133 | 133 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 34 | 28 | Anticipating another adjustment after the second round. Min/maxing numbers to reach the 28 point threshold. |
134 | 134 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 12 | 16 | 20 | 21 | 4 | 5 | Try to pick up a couple with my 3-5 at the ends and then win 4 of the middle ones where the strength is. |
135 | 135 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 16 | 18 | 18 | 19 | Idk let's see if I win |
136 | 136 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 15 | 17 | 19 | Need 28 pts to win, expected value of n pts/ 55 total its per castle. Rounded up higher pt castles. |
137 | 137 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 22 | 2 | 25 | Going all-in on Castles 7, 8, and 10 gives 25 points of the 28 needed to win. After that, I just split my troops between 3 and 4 with the hope of winning one of the two battles and pushing myself over. Castles 5, 6, and 9 each got 2 troops so that I could win those if the opposition left them undefended. |
138 | 138 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 15 | 20 | 25 | 20 | 1 | |
139 | 139 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 33 | 36 | Just win 10,9,8 and get lucky somewhere else. |
140 | 140 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 12 | 16 | 21 | 23 | 1 | I place 1 troop #10 assuming my opponent will allocate a large contingent of his troops, thus increasing my chances of winning a majority of the others. |
141 | 141 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 1 | 15 | 1 | 20 | 2 | 20 | 24 | Focusing on the odd numbers offers fewer points than focusing on the even numbers, but if I can capture one even as well, I can pull ahead. |
142 | 142 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 11 | 13 | 3 | 15 | 26 | 2 | I wanted to have some troops at every castle to have a chance to win any of them. I think some people may try to just win the 4 most valuable castles, as that wins you a majority of points, so I wanted to make sure I hit one of them hard to pre-empt that. The rest was pretty much random! |
143 | 143 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 18 | 18 | 18 | |
144 | 144 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 13 | 4 | 29 | 32 | 4 | 4 | I picked two more than the winning deployment from a previous round for all the top castles, assuming that most other players would pick one more than the winning deployment. This made me run out of soldiers by the end though, so the least value castles are pretty weakly defended. |
145 | 145 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 30 | 1 | Not a lot of thought went into the deployment. trying to get castles 9-7 most of the time. |
146 | 146 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 2 | 21 | 3 | 26 | 3 | 31 | I really decided to only focus on castles 10, 8, 6, and 4 since those would win it for me. I started thinking of doing 30, 25, 20, and 10 respectively, but if a lot of people like doing multiple of 5s, adding one more to each could give me a lot more wins. I figure some people would put 0 in 1, 2, and 3, so I put one in each just in case. The remaining 8 troops went pretty evenly into 5, 7, and 9. |
147 | 147 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 12 | 14 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 39 | to score 28 points 90% of the time |
148 | 148 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 27 | 27 | 2 | 10 | 14 | Paired scouts to 1/2/3 - not worth more troops, but good to snipe or deny a 1-troop snipe. Common practice in last games has been to focus on 4 castles, with a small number spread to others. This strategy is designed to narrowly defeat any small force at any castle, while focusing on castles 6 & 7 (usually ignored, but form a good base to combine with other towers) and increasing numbers of troops to castles 9 & 10. Castle 8 is almost ignored, anticipating others will focus efforts there. |
149 | 149 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 2 | 2 | Trying to capture all of the middles and maybe steal the top 2 |
150 | 150 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 26 | 27 | 37 | Get 28 points with the fewest number of castles possible (10, 9, 8 & 1). Try to defend those with as many soldiers as possible and leave 1 at the other castles in case any are left undefended. |
151 | 151 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 16 | 18 | 20 | |
152 | 152 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 18 | 20 | 0 | 28 | The Name of this game should be 55. Why? Well for a similar reason why your website is called 538. 55 is the number of total points a player could win in this game, but 28 is the number of points a player needs to win, like 270 in an election. If a player can get to 28 points then he automatically wins. (Said player can win with less if there are ties). Instead of viewing the board as 55 points I can win, I view it as 28 points I need to win. That being said, each point is worth 3.57 of my soldiers (100/28). I am making an assumption, that most people will undervalue lower point tiers. Putting 3, 5, and 7 soldiers on tiers 1, 2, and 3 respectively, 15% of my soldiers, but gains 21% of the points needed. A major victory for my army. 4 and 5 are tricky. They are needed to win if you go the 10,9,5,4 strategy (last season's winners did). But they were overcommitted to those areas. Being wary of losing them due to people overcommitting on them, I left them at 2. Every soldier needs someone to guard his back. Pick up the easy win vs those who bid 0 or 1, but don't lose out on those playing the 10,9,5,4 strategy. Probably a minor loss for my army. 6,7,8 are much easier. They deserve 21, 25, and 28 soldiers respectively (using 3.57x *point value). But they are also VERY underappreciated by both past winners, and the average submission. Capitalizing on this, I can gain these points by using a decent amount of soldiers, but near the amount they deserve. Another major victory for my army. I can count on wins by using only 15, 18, and 20. This leaves me with 9 and 10. And 28 troops. If history tells us anything, its that people like castle 9 more than they like castle 10. This is an either or situation, you won't win both unless you overcommit. I place all 28 in castle 10. |
153 | 153 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 16 | 1 | 7 | 16 | 33 | 5 | I looked at the distributions of the two previous wars and picked out some forts that have a potential to be left unguarded and put a couple more troops in there, while approximately splitting the difference between the two sets of winners, hoping that others might have the same approach, allowing myself to have a couple more in those key forts mentioned above. |
154 | 154 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 33 | 20 | 20 | 19 | To achieve over 50% of the available points, you must either win either the lowest 7 or highest 4, or otherwise mix and match point values up to 28 points. I have chosen to fight hard for the 4 highest values, in hopes that most spread their troops more conservatively. Because Castle 7 is included in both of these combinations, it is likely to be highly contested, so I have placed a third of my troops there. 1 troop was distributed to all castles in the lower 6 to snag extra points in case of similar strategies, or to those which chose not to contest certain castles. This strategy only works if I am able to win all 4 top castles, so this beats the winning Feb 2017 strategy of aiming low, but not the Jun 2017 strategy of splitting between 9/10 and 4/5. That makes this strategy considerably more risky and dependent on what the general trends are among the other participants this time. |
155 | 155 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 20 | 25 | 30 | 2 | The Art of War |
156 | 156 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 11 | 14 | 17 | 17 | 15 | 13 | Designed a strategy that would beat both the average strategies from the last 2 battle royales, without winning any castle with a high excess of troops. |
157 | 157 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 1 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 29 | 31 | Mostly guessing. 6, 9, and 10 seems like an efficient way to get close to 28, and hardly anyone's going to put lots of troops to both 3 and 4. |
158 | 158 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 4 | The past winners placed 2-3 troops at each of their worst bases, by placing 4 I could acquire those bases at a lower marginal cost of entry. I wanted to try and take 5 bases total, and wanted to make sure that each of those 5 bases had more than 10 so that I could beat out the average person who just runs 10's across the board. I avoided the 10 spot because I think the average person will overplace value on that and overallocate their troops there. |
159 | 159 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 23 | People seem to try to get clever by guessing which castles others will give up on or go all-in for. Maybe being not-clever and just going for the high-value ones counters that? |
160 | 160 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 3 | 26 | 2 | 27 | 26 | 1 | I choose to ignore castle 10 since it will be often stormed by a great number of troops. I think castle 8 is more strategic unless a lot of people applied the same strategy as me. Round numbers (or numbers ending in 5) are never a good bet since a lot of people will most likely put that number and you'll find yourself tied, so one upping those is to me a good strategy |
161 | 161 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 32 | 31 | 31 | I anticipate a backlash against the deployment of troops to the highest castles given the data from the last war. Because of this, committing roughly a third of my troops to each of the three largest castles should overwhelm the majority of opponents. 8 has historically been one of the most sought after castles, likely being used to deny narrow strategies like mine a victory, so i will fortify it with an extra troop. Additionally, if i win 8/9/10, only one other point is necessary, and the first castle has been historically poorly defended. I send my final troop to the second castle, because someone who has committed more than 5 troops to the first is probably less likely to have fortified the second. |
162 | 162 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 15 | 17 | 4 | 15 | 15 | 9 | Sort of a smooth mound shape but I pulled back on #7 to boost the tails |
163 | 163 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 16 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 21 | 28 | Guesses. |
164 | 164 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 3 | 19 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 32 | Just wanted to beat the best of the last two battles... |
165 | 165 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 15 | 16 | 18 | It was based on relative value. Castle 10 has 18% of the total points (55) so they get 18 troops, 9 has 16% of the total points so they get 16 troops, and so on. |
166 | 166 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 25 | 25 | 27 | 1 | 1 | |
167 | 167 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 17 | 20 | 25 | 5 | 4 | Sounded good to me |
168 | 168 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 30 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 30 | I put the last 2 set of winners in an excel spreadsheet. I set it up with functions so I could see which battles I won and who won the war. I noticed the main strategies focused on: a) 10, 9, 5, 4 b) 8, 7, 5, 4, 3, 2 c) 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 2 I decided to make sure my strategy would defeat each of the past top 5 players. I found a few combinations that worked and noticed that they had something in common: brake the cores of the main strategies, but don't give up all the others in the process. For some reason, 5 and 4 seem to be the most popular choices, so it seemed essential to steal one of these. I chose 5 because it's worth more points. The 2nd part is trickier, because now half the players go for 9 and 10, and the other half go for 8 and 7. I decided to be bold in 10, dedicating far more troops than almost any of the other players would. Then, put enough of the remaining troops spread across the other three options. This is to increase the odds of winning at least 2 of three. The remaining troops are placed among the last numbers to get victories against people neglecting them. |
169 | 169 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 15 | 10 | 26 | 34 | 0 | Clustered to win as many points against last time's winners. |
170 | 170 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 13 | 20 | 37 | Roughly exponential increase for each next castle |
171 | 171 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 10 | 16 | 16 | 22 | 24 | 1 | 1 | |
172 | 172 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 22 | 25 | 28 | Proportionally allocated to the top four based on point values |
173 | 173 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 3 | 18 | 4 | 24 | 5 | 30 | Go strong to get to the 28 point win count from castles 10, 8, 6, and 4, and scatter other forces to avoid losing other high value castles to just 1 or 2 soldiers. Given that strategy, allocate soldiers in proportion to the castles' value. Specifically, targeted castles get 3x their value in numbers of soldiers while the remaining castles get half, rounded up. Given 100 soldiers, the specific numbers just sort of shook out that way. Round 1 winners went strong for upper-middle and low numbers to get to 28 -- something like 8,7,5,4,3,1. In response, round 2 winners went strong specifically for 10, 9, 5, and 4. I'm countering those while still focusing on my primary strategy: try hard to get my primary targets to get to 28 points, while giving myself a chance on the other castles if I happen to lose one or two of my primary targets. Running against the previous 10 finalists I'd finish 9-1, and the one loss is 28-27, so mine may be a popular winning strategy as a counter to those, just as the leaders in previous iterations of the game used similar strategies to each other. ------ I wonder if you could provide the average score for the previous winners, and other people who might have had a higher average result, but won fewer duels. |
174 | 174 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 26 | 30 | 30 | 3 | 3 | Highest value avoiding copy cats and those who will put everything on 10 and 9 |
175 | 175 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 16 | 30 | 3 | 27 | Not too sure. |
176 | 176 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 22 | 3 | 24 | 27 | 0 | Key is to get to 28. Wanted to stack as few castles as possible to increase probability of winning those. Left 7, 4, and 3 as contingency plans in case someone was doing the same. |
177 | 177 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 12 | 26 | 26 | 4 | 4 | Overvalue the undervalued |
178 | 178 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 17 | 19 | 22 | I assumed that a reasonably common strategy would be trying to spread the troops proportional to the castle scores (so, basically scaling up from a 55 point triangular spread). The idea here is to cede 10 points every game to build a more top-heavy spread to specifically counter those players and some variations on that theme. |
179 | 179 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 0 | 34 | 34 | |
180 | 180 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 36 | trying to win the higher castles without leaving any empty and pick off the 10 on each strategy |
181 | 181 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 17 | 18 | 15 | 13 | My goal was to build a strategy that beat the average of both of the previous two rounds of raiding. |
182 | 182 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 19 | 23 | 7 | 7 | 19 | 4 | 5 | I just picked a strategy that would beat the top 5 in the most recent battle and also the top 5 in the first battle |
183 | 183 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 27 | 29 | Trying to get undervalued castles for cheap while leaving highly contested ones on the board |
184 | 184 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 16 | 21 | 21 | 26 | 1 | 1 | I tried to win just enough castles to get a majority of points by focusing on winning the predicted least competitive castles by one person. I guessed that most people will use multiples of 5 more often than other values and made all my troop counts 1 more than a multiple of 5. |
185 | 185 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 1 | 24 | 4 | 26 | 2 | 22 | Pretty random, some psychology |
186 | 186 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 18 | 18 | 24 | 18 | We know nothing. |
187 | 187 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 17 | 5 | 27 | 3 | 30 | We're in the Endgame now. |
188 | 188 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 28 | 12 | 30 | 2 | Somewhat randomly. Generally speaking, either try to win or don't. Not a lot of in between. |
189 | 189 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 55 | Tried to guarantee 10 and get what I could with the rest |
190 | 190 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 19 | 26 | 26 | Go with non-derivatives, sacrifice 5's and 6's for 7's and 8's. In the words of Brienne of Tarth, "Don't go where your enemy leads you." |
191 | 191 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 2 | 13 | 15 | 1 | 33 | 12 | It's what I submitted last time. I did a bunch of simulations two years ago but I'm not doing any more work today for this glorified rock-paper-scissors match. |
192 | 192 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 3 | 31 | 27 | 4 | Random to avoid overthinking the problem |
193 | 193 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 27 | 27 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 20 | Achieving the required points while committing to the fewest possible castles to ensure that those who committed troops elsewhere would not be able to achieve the required amount of points. |
194 | 194 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 20 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 32 | 3 | saw the best ones from the last 1 and combinated. |
195 | 195 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 4 | 4 | 4 each seems like it will win 9+10 pretty frequently based on past distributions. Then, big numbers at 8,7,6,5 all will lose to even bigger ones of course, but will do well against people who followed either of the strategies of the past two winners - big numbers on 7/8 or on 4/5 - and hopefully win enough of the castle 3 in addition to take the battle. |
196 | 196 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 14 | 15 | 20 | 20 | 10 | 2 | devalued the highest due to probability someone would pick those, and the lowest due to lower value. Centralized in the middle, hoping to win the majority of 4-8. Put at least 2 in all categories so if any are using a similar strategy but "giving up" certain castles I will win those, and used 2 instead of one to try and outsmart any with the same strategy using 1 soldier. |
197 | 197 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 13 | 3 | 32 | 31 | 3 | Assume many will either go for 7/8 or 9/10, and those that do will weight heavier on the higher of the 2, so trying to split the difference and win one of each pair. 3s to try to pick up a few where people put 1 or 2, then using the majority of the rest to try for 5/6, which outweigh 1-4 combined. |
198 | 198 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 20 | 24 | 2 | 30 | 3 | Focusing on 9, 7, 6, and 5 as they represent half of possible points |
199 | 199 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 12 | 24 | 1 | 46 | I dunno |
200 | 200 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 20 | 25 | 30 | 3 | 4 | Shooting for mid numbers (adds up to more than the extremes put together). Still put a few in the top numbers in case of a steal. |
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CREATE TABLE "riddler-castles/castle-solutions-3" ( "Castle 1" INTEGER, "Castle 2" INTEGER, "Castle 3" INTEGER, "Castle 4" INTEGER, "Castle 5" INTEGER, "Castle 6" INTEGER, "Castle 7" INTEGER, "Castle 8" INTEGER, "Castle 9" INTEGER, "Castle 10" INTEGER, "Why did you choose your troop deployment?" TEXT );