rowid,Your Number,Show Your Work 1,-1E+131,negative numbers are allowed? 2,-1E+37,lowest minimum integer 3,"-999,999,999,999,999,000,000,000,000",No idea 4,-1E+21,is this even allowed??? 5,-9999999999,whole positive numbers and their opposites 6,0,0 is the lowest possible integer that is not negative. 7,0,It is not negative. 8,0,Its the first one that isn't negative 9,0,"I simply want to watch the world burn as math geeks fight over whether zero is a positive integer or not. We can all agree it is a non-negative integer, but these pesky directions opted for ""positive integer"". Perhaps this will settle the debate and cement my place in math history." 10,0,"0 is the lowest positive integer number. People will probably try to avoid numbers they think everyone will pick, might as well pick the lowest." 11,0,"Positive zero is the smallest positive integer, but just tricky enough that no one else will guess it." 12,0,Low interger 13,0,I figured everyone would assume be the most common choice and decide to choose something in the 20s. I also remember from math class that 0 is a positive number. 14,0,A whole number that does not have a decimal or fractional part 15,0,"Zero is the lowest positive integer, but many people don't think of it." 16,0,"figure my best chance is that moderator treats 0 as acceptable, but most submitters do not." 17,0,People may not think it's positive 18,0,I hope no one else thinks about that one ^^ 19,0,Lowest possible integer? 20,0,Cuz copy and paste is a thing :) 21,0,Smallest positive integer 22,0,Fuck it. 23,0.001,Low number to the right of zero 24,1,Someone (probably lots of someones) had to pick it 25,1,d 26,1,Lowest positive integer. Fingers crossed everybody else thinks it's too obvious and doesn't meet second criteria 27,1,"Crossing my fingers that everyone else will think 1 is a bad idea. But given the sheer number of entries you'll probably get, it's more likely that a few of them have the same rationale. " 28,1,Maybe no one else will be this clever.... 29,1,go big or go home babyyyyyy 30,1,It's a risk but one I'm willing to take 31,1,somebody's got to do it.... 32,1,"Eh, maybe enough people will think its too obvious and not pick it. Or I run into others picking it and I should do 2. Probably 9." 33,1,Someone's gotta try it. 34,1,"Because it makes no difference which number I choose. I'm at the mercy of chance that someone else chooses the same number, so why not go for the lowest possible integer which most people will ignore because it's too obvious an answer as they assume everyone else will choose it as well?" 35,1,"Mostly a spoiler. I assume I wont be the only one to choose 1, but if everyone has that mindset maybe I will!" 36,1,"Just in case everyone else assumes no one would be dumb enough to put in 1--here I am, just dumb enough." 37,1,"Hey, it was the lowest number available, I'll take my chances everyone else overthinks it" 38,1,"I figured everyone else thought lots of people would select one, so I did, hoping that I would be the only one to do so. I doubt it, but we will see." 39,1,Because I'm betting on the long shot that noone else is dumb enough to choose 1 40,1,I don't think anyone else has the balls to go this low 41,1,What if no one else picks it? 42,1,"Because if the person who wins wins by choosing the number 1, we are all going to hate the person. This ensures that this will be prevented or that I will be the person who is hated. Also, this is not a new idea. The puzzle website Nikoli has been doing this for over a decade, it's called the Nikoli Derby. " 43,1,"This is a high-risk, high-reward choice. It's possible that everybody will assume that somebody will enter 1, and therefore it can't win, and try something higher. It's unlikely that nobody else will try this, but if nobody does, I win." 44,1,I'm a high-school math teacher and have played this game with students. It's surprising how many times 1 wins. 45,1,because someone has to 46,1,Trying the obvious 47,1,Maybe I'm the only one stupid enough to pick this number. 48,1,"I am taking the reverse psychology scattergories approach. In the board game scattergories there are multiple categories that require a unique answer In order to earn a point. In this game, you obviously want to come up with an answer that no one else came up with, so everyone avoids the obvious answer. More often than not, the most obvious answer is never given. So, if you had used the easy answer, then you would still be earning a point. That's why I'm going with the most obvious, easy answer, in hopes that everyone else is ""too smart"" to submit it too. " 49,1,Someone has to. 50,1,"if no one else picks it, its the winner." 51,1,"I am assuming every one else will think that if they choose 1, then it won't be unique, so they will choose a number greater than 1. That leaves 1 for me!!!!" 52,1,Just in case someone else doesn't guess 1 53,1,"An integer is a ""counting number"" i.e. No fractions or decimals are in integers, zero is neither positive nor negative which leaves 1 as the next lowest integer" 54,1,"No one else would be so stupid to pick the lowest number, that everyone else will pick." 55,1,Guessed no one else would be bold enough to choose the lowest number 56,1,Just doing my part making sure #1 is accounted for! 57,1,"I've done with this classes of 30, generally the 1 gambit seems to be the best choice." 58,1,It's the lowest 59,1,Worth a shot. Maybe nobody else goes that low. 60,1,gotta go low 61,1,Everyone may assume that this is taken. 62,1,Can anybody be dumb enough to pick 1? 63,1,"I thought it would be really funny if every single person overthought it, and no one chose 1." 64,1,Because wouldn't it be funny if it ends up being 1? 65,1,Just in case everyone else outthinks themselves and no one else takes the lowest possible positive integer! 66,1,Just in case 67,1,"Worth a try, right?" 68,1,Maybe I'll get lucky and everyone else will overthink it 69,1,Maybe everyone else will overthink this and I'll get really lucky. 70,1,It's the most optimal choice from a game theory perspective. It is the only possible number that wins assuming it is unique. If I had a second guess (I assume most of your readers know game theory and some will implement it as rigidly as I have) I'd say 6 71,1,I want to make sure no one else can win with this number 72,1,Maybe everyone will decide it's too obvious? Also zero isn't positive. 73,1,Somebody has to 74,1,"No one is actually going to pick 1, right?" 75,1,I think there's a high enough chance that no one else picks 1. 76,1,I'm hoping no one else was foolhardy enough to go for the easy win. 77,1,"This is simply an investment in the glory of being the only person to guess ""1""." 78,1,"It is the lowest possible positive integer, however as such, one could assume then that it would be chosen frequently and thus not unique. However, also assuming that people have this realization, would mean they would not pick 1 in which case the odds it is unique is much higher. This is why I have chosen 1. " 79,1,"Triple reverse psychology. Everyone will want to submit it, so everyone will think they cannot. Knowing this, a few will think others won't submit it, and will again be tempted. But they will think a few will submit it, so they will back off a second time. So I am submitting it, hoping everyone else thinks it will be picked by someone else, and avoid it." 80,1,Most people are going to assume low integers will get chosen and choose a higher number. 81,1,1 is an integer 82,1,because wouldn't it be awesome 83,1,I'm hopeful everyone will think no one will pick one. 84,1,Here's hoping literally everyone else is a hipster and assumes they need to go for a higher number! 85,1,"It's unlikely this will be unique, but if everyone else thinks that way, then this will win" 86,1,"I'm counting on everyone else being too clever to pick 1 --- ""go small or go home""" 87,1,There is a good chance that no one dares to pick 1. 88,1,Let's see if anyone else has the guts to do it... :) 89,1,Who would choose the obvious answer? 90,1,"I'm not going to win, but I'm making sure somebody else who thinks they're clever doesn't." 91,1,"Eh, might as well try." 92,1,"It is the lowest positive integer, and maybe no one else will pick it." 93,1,Just in case 94,1,Lowest positive integer 95,1,Why not? 96,1,Just a test to see if I can spam with a separate email. 97,1,"1 is the lowest positive integer. Since it needs to be the lowest unique integer, I'm assuming that everyone will consider 1 to be too obvious a choice and hence unlikely to be unique. Much like my strategy would be on The Price Is Right, I'll bet $1, Bob." 98,1,May be overlooked 99,1,It's a super long shot but I'm hoping everyone just over thinks this and assumes that the lowest positive integer will be picked many times. 100,1,"Well, it's definitely the lowest. My hope is that everyone else is convinced that someone will pick 1 so they all move on to other numbers." 101,1,risk vs reward 102,1,On the off chance... 103,1,Moxie 104,1,a 105,1,It's a lowest positive integer there is. I hope no one else realises this. 106,1,Who would choose 1? 107,1,Hoping others overthink it and I get lucky. 108,1,Get em all 109,1,just in case no one else picks it 110,1,worth a try ;) 111,1,I'm guessing that no one else is going to pick the smallest positive integer because it's too obvious. 112,1,"An integer can only be a whole number, and since it has to be positive, the smallest number is one." 113,1,"I am kind of just hoping everyone who responds overthinks this. Seems unlikely, and I probably should have gone with 31. " 114,1,"I am going on the basis that nobody will pick 1, assuming everyone will pick one and it won't be unique. So I am hoping I am the only person picking 1." 115,1,I would feel really stupid if somebody else won with one. 116,1,Want to make sure that someone provides the lowest possible response. 117,1,i looked it up. 118,1,"1 is a terrible pick, but everyone knows that and might avoid it." 119,1,"Clearly 1 is the lowest positive integer. Thus no other number can beat it and 1 should be the most popular submission. Because the goal is to submit a unique integer, only a fool would submit 1. There are no fools in Riddler Nation, so no one will submit 1. Therefore, I will submit 1." 120,1,The extremely small chance no one else choose it. 121,1,"Because if I can't have it, nobody can. :) " 122,1,Just in case nobody else bothered to try it. 123,1,most people would assume that low numbers would be taken and therefor pick higher numbers to try to avoid competition. 124,1,1 is the smallest positive integer 125,1,23-22=1 (joke) 126,1,One. Just in case. 127,1,Someone has to. 128,1,"1, 2, 3, 4..." 129,1,On the off chance that everyone else in the world will decide that 1 can't possibly win. 130,1,My thinking is that the readers will overthink this one big time. 131,1,I mean it's not gonna win but it should help round out the dataset 132,1,An integer is a positive or negative whole number. The lowest positive integer is 1 (0 is neither positive or negative). 133,1,I'd hate to lose to somebody who picked 1. 134,1,Why not 135,1,"To be contrarian, I wouldn't normally pick the lowest option but who would really, so maybe my crazy idea will work." 136,1,assumes everybody else wants to be clever 137,1,"Theres a chance this could work. If everyone else assumes that no one would be silly enough to choose 1, and instead go with slightly higher numbers, its possible that 1 could be unique." 138,1,1 is a unique number -- there is no other number like it! 139,1,"Just to make sure nobody else wins with 1. If I win, great!" 140,1,N 141,1,Figured everyone else might not choose one and try and overthink it 142,1,I figured people were more likely to chose a number greater than 1 as they would believe someone else would be stupid enough to pick it. I am that person. 143,1,"I read ""The Emperor Has No Clothes"" to my nephew the other day so it seems like this is worth a shot." 144,1,Because no one will pick 1 145,1,I figure why not go with the lowest integer in the hopes that everyone else will assume someone will submit it. 146,1,The positive integer numbers are all the integer numbers to the right of zero in a number line. The lowest of them is 1. 147,1,1 is really low 148,1,lowest possible positive integer - taking my chances that no one else is submitting this lmao 149,1,NO reason. 150,1,Everybody thinks someone else will submit this number. I am someone else. 151,1,Just in case no one picks it 152,1,It's the lowest positive integer. I hope nobody else picks it. 153,1,"There are two possibilities here: A: Everyone else is too afraid to pick the number 1 because they believe someone else will. In that case, I win. B: Someone else has the same idea, but I ruin their day. In that case, I win... in a different way." 154,1,Somebody had to. 155,1,The unparalleled sense of smugness I will feel if I'm the only one. 156,1,"Seems that most people may overthink this one and perhaps I’ll squeeze in as the lone number one. Unlikely, but I’ll try it!" 157,1,Would feel silly if 1 was the winner and we did not select it 158,1,"It's unique because it's neither prime nor composite. There are no lower positive integers at all, so this is the smallest possible positive integer that is in some way unique." 159,1,It is the lowest positive integer. 160,1,? 161,1,Someone's got to pick one! 162,1,Felt like maybe no one else would be this brazen. 163,1,"I have no expectation of ""1"" being unique. I'm simply ensuring that nobody manages to win with it by the ""too obvious"" argument. It's unclear what the sample size is here, but if it's small enough, that terrible strategy could succeed." 164,1,"People may not choose 1, as it would be too obvious. I'm basically betting that everyone else will try to get too ""clever"" with their choices." 165,1,No one will choose it because they think everyone will choose it 166,1,i 167,1,"Just on the outside chance that everyone else will stay away from this ""obvious"" choice. Any other number will also have a low probability of success." 168,1,I think everyone else will try to be fancy and pick slightly higher numbers thinking everyone will be picking really low numbers. 169,1,Who else would pick 1? That's a ridiculous number to pick! 170,1,To stop anyone else submitting the lowest integer and winning 171,1,"My answer has to satisfy two criteria, lowest number and unique number. While the chance of it satisfying the unique number is low, it does not seem substantially lower than any other number, and has the advantage of being assured of being the lower possible possible integer, meaning that I start with a baseline of satisfying 50% of the criteria." 172,1,"Because I'll feel stupid of no one else enters it. 2 will probably win, though." 173,1,Hoping for luck 174,1,"Prisoner's dilemma sort of problem. By going for the lowest positive integer I'm gambling that all other players will bet that at least two players will pick it, making it non unique. If all players make this calculation then no-one will chose 1 and I'll win." 175,1,"Honestly trying to decide between 1, 4, and 8. Most people will try to outsmart, so maybe no one picks 1. Otherwise, 4 and 8 are the least common low integers." 176,1,I chose 1 because I think others will not choose it thinking everyone else might choose it. 177,1,This type of challenge seems extremely vulnerable to answer spamming. I don't know if there is a good approach for honest submissions. 178,1,What if no one else does? 179,1,I'm calling everyone's bluff 180,1,No one will think of this 181,1,"I assume this will fail, but i wanted to see if people would overthink it and go for something higher. " 182,2,because everyone else will enter '1' 183,2,"I was tempted to go big and enter '1', just in case everyone else psyched themselves out. But if that was tempting to me, it'll be tempting for some other players. How many? I guess at least two ..." 184,2,"2 is too low, there's no way it could end up being unique, therefore no one will bother guessing it, so maybe it actually will end up being unique." 185,2,It's small 186,2,Just in case 187,2,Can't let anyone win with 2 because no one thinks to pick it. 188,2,"Most people would not think to choose the number 1. This would create an opening for few to choose that number, with the possibility of it being the lowest unique number. Someone may anticipate that logic by choosing the number 2. I am going to be that person." 189,2,sportz 190,2,"So most folks will avoid super low numbers and aim for numbers with at least double digits. The next group of people will realize that people will avoid super low integers and go with 1. They think they're clever. Unfortunately, there are probably multiple people thinking this way, so they just played themselves. I fall into the final group who chose the smallest integer that isn't 1. Hopefully it's not a group though. It's just me (again, hopefully)." 191,2,"Well I know that somebody else is inevitably going to pick 1, don't I?" 192,2,"I think they would be only two types of people: 1) One who would over think it and give bigger number and 2) One who goes ""Screw it. Go for number 1!"" I'm confident there is at least 2 people who are type-2" 193,2,It should be obvious based on the number that it is. 194,2,It's not 1 195,2,"Most people will use their submission to try to guess about when their answer will be unique (somewhere from 10-1000+). Some others will submit 1 as the default lowest positive integer. By choosing 2, I'm trying to sneak in between these two groups. " 196,2,"It seems likely that a very small number won't win because multiple people will guess it, but that means other users will avoid the small numbers and one of them might actually win. But I won't guess 1 because at least a few smartasses are likely to guess that anyway." 197,2,my son picked it. And based on the way people approach these problems it probably isn't a bad choice v 198,2,Can't have someone winning this competition with just a 2. 199,2,2 200,2,Let's choose a number that no one else would submit because everyone else is looking for a totally oddball number. 201,2,I assume that someone is submitting 1. 202,2,"I chose Two, ""2"" because it is the lowest positive integer which is not 1. My first instinct was to pick a number in the 1000s range at random because I surmised that all the low numbers would be taken. However the other players in the ""game"" would likely make the same decision so I decided to choose a low number and hope that it would be unique and lower than the ""instinct"" population. Then I guessed that there would also be a ""clever"" population of people that would take the same route I had chosen and pick number one - 1. Therefore to avoid the ""instinct"" and ""clever"" populations I have chosen the number two - 2. " 203,2,Several people will try to sneak the quick 1 in there - but after that who'd pick 2? Seems like the number I would least want to select. Ergo: my pick. 204,2,"I'm assuming some people will choose one, but of the people who don't choose one, they will all pick something significantly more than one." 205,2,"Someone will put 1, others will try to think of a number people won't think of, and my thought is it will be higher than 2" 206,2,People will assume that low numbers won't work so they will pick higher numbers. People that pick low because of this thinking will pick 1. 207,2,2 is an integer 208,2,Randomly drawn from an exponential distribution 209,2,Second test to see if its possible to spam guesses. 210,2,Everyone else who chooses a low number will choose 1. 211,2,Taking the route of hoping that other choose to go for larger numbers in belief that all the smaller numbers are all chosen. Stayed away from 1 as ut probably will be spammed. 212,2,a 213,2,Lots of people not paying attention to the instructions could choose 1 214,2,get em all 215,2,Likely that someone will pick the number 1 and instinct for unique number is high so going against the odds 216,2,"Hopefully everyone assumes the lowest numbers will be taken, and choose higher numbers. Somebody else may think like I do and pick 1. Terrible logic probably but cheers! " 217,2,It's the smallest number larger than 1. 218,2,Guessing 219,2,"I assumed that everyone else playing would themselves assume that a lot of the low numbers would be taken. I then thought I could be a lone person to actually put ""1,"" which others might avoid for being too obvious. However between the possibility that other people followed my exact logic, and the possibility that some would submit while misunderstanding the question, I chose the next lowest positive integer: 2." 220,2,I just thought that no one else would pick it since they would assume it was already chosen. 221,2,"I wanted to choose 1 and hope no one else would be that bad at this game. Then I got worried that other people would be that bad at this game so I chose 2. Watch, now it will turn out that no one chose 1 and several chose 2." 222,2,"My logic is that if there are 81 registered riddlers who all have experience on this site and trying to ""out-predict"" other people there is likely someone who thinks that one won't be put because it's too predictable but I would like to predict that multiple people think one will go unused so here I am using two in hopes that no other soul out there out-predicts my out-predictions. " 223,2,figured everybody would say 1 so i took the next lowest. price is right style 224,2,Most people will think 1 is clever or pick a random larger number hoping no one else picks it 225,2,It's too much of an obvious number that maybe no one else will pick it! 226,2,"A lot of people will choose 1 to mess with it, but will forsake 2 for the same reason. " 227,2,Somebody had to submit it 228,2,I figured no one would pick a really low number. I didn't pick 1 because others would probably use the same logic and therefore pick the lowest number possible. 229,2,"I figure most people will choose higher numbers, and a few clever fellows will choose 1 and hope for the best, so I guess I'm choosing 2 and hoping no one thinks of that?" 230,2,"I remember seeing this question in Uni once, 25 years ago. A bunch of people submitted 1, 3 was popular as well, but no-one submitted 2. So I'm picking 2." 231,2,"I didn't think this through too hard. I figure people will put 1 expecting no one else to, so I'll choose 2 hoping no one else picked it. Otherwise it's just a guessing game, and I'm afraid of guessing too high. " 232,2,Using findings from World Scientific Article: http://www.eleceng.adelaide.edu.au/personal/dabbott/publications/FNL_zeng2007.pdf 233,2,Seems like there will be at least one person who will just throw out 1 hoping no one else does. I'll try a little higher (but I fear recursive reasoning will rule me out too). 234,2,Funsies 235,2,no one will guess it - expecting others to have done so 236,2,"im guessing most people wont choose a small number at the risk of it being non-unique. those who do will hopefully hedge all their bets and pick extremely low, (1), and im hoping no one will pick 2." 237,3,Premonition 238,3,"I figure a lot of people will go with 1 hoping that no one else does, a bunch will go with 2 thinking they might be the only one, and then everyone else will pick arbitrarily higher numbers (as I'm about to do with a 2nd submission)." 239,3,3 240,3,"The higher you go the better chance of being unique, but the worse chance of winning. 3 is probably too low." 241,3,It's lower than 4. 242,3,It's lower than 4. 243,3,"Well you said UNIQUE and I figured 1 would be taken, therefore, 3. " 244,3,It seemed that 1 and 2 would be popular choices 245,3,"A bunch of people will choose 1 assuming that everyone else will overthink it (they wont) A bunch of people will choose 2 trying to outsmart the 1s (They Won'T) 3 will take it (actually it won't...but oh well)" 246,3,"some will submit 1, thinking that no one else will bother; some will submit 2, having realized that some will submit 1. I'm betting on the slim chance that no one besides me will think to submit 3. Or that those who think it through that far will skip 3 and go to 4 or higher." 247,3,"Most people thinking rationally will probably choose a number that's moderately high, to decrease the chances of another person picking it. If we assume that most people reason as such, then a lower number will actually have a higher chance of being the winner. 1 will probably not be unique, since a number of people could reason this far. 2 might not be unique, since a number of people could reason this far. This logic could continue indefinitely, the stopping point is based loosely on how many people are likely to see and respond to the riddle and go through the aforementioned reasoning, a number whose magnitude I estimated from the amount of people commenting on the Healthcare debate liveblog (thus an estimate of the amount of people who frequent FiveThirtyEight). I'd be very interested to see this experiment conducted many times over differing crowd sizes and see if, as I suspect, the winning number is positively correlated to amount of participants." 248,3,I assume most people will assume that low numbers are too obvious. I spent a lot of time thinking about bigger numbers and then second guessed myself and here I am. 249,3,Because 3...is a magic number 250,3,Seems reasonable 251,3,"Some may go for the win with 1, others may assume them with 2, 3 is still high risk high reward but less risk than the other 2" 252,3,3 is an integer 253,3,"Lots of people will pick one. Some people will try to pick 2 just to outsmart those people. I am going to outsmart the smarts. A lot of people will try to pick very high numbers, assuming that low numbers will be duplicated. " 254,3,"Why not? Go big, but not really..." 255,3,Someone will pick 1 and 2 hoping all other pick random higher number. Probably 3 as well but who knows. 256,3,No real reason 257,3,a 258,3,get em all 259,3,- 260,3,"There are two people that will try to solve this problem. Those that choose very low numbers gambling that no one else will, and those that try to choose the lowest high number that others would not have taken. As 2nd place has no value in a competition like this, I feel the correct way to maximize your results is to choose the first method. However, I slightly hedge because someone had to choose 1 and 2... right? Maybe, or something?" 261,3,"1 is the obvious answer if there were only one submission... but I assume the website has more readers than just myself. Again, assuming most people will realize similarly and pick >30 again assuming the lower numbers have already been chosen by others... But what happens when everyone thinks the same thing and skips the numbers under 10. Okay, it's not 3 but I'm not a game theory expert. " 262,3,Guessing 263,3,it would have been nice to know the approximate number of people likely to participate. I first thought of choosing 1 thinking that nobody would be so bold as to try it. But since it was my first thought I scrapped the idea. Next I thought someone thinking along those lines might inch up to 2 to avoid the 1's. Then I decided that people not trying super low answers might just skip over 3 and go higher. 264,3,Because why not? 265,3,"I figured most people would pick double digit numbers, but someone would pick one. Then someone else would think that and pick 2. I hope nobody thinks two steps ahead and pick 3." 266,3,Figured many people would have picked 1 thinking that most others would go high. So I went just above 1 267,3,I'm just doing my part to make sure people who submit really small numbers don't win. 268,3,"My wife said 2, I said 4; I averaged them. Guaranteed to work" 269,3,"It's low, but not too low" 270,4,"I expect a number of people to say 1-3, but 4 is viewed as more obscure" 271,4,"Everyone picks one, everyone who thinks that picks two. Three has got to be someone's favorite number, but no one likes 4" 272,4,"Because its a low number that doesn't seem to publicized. I think there will a couple of 1's ""just in case"" and then some two's and three's for about the same reason and because their low primes people will think of. 5 and 7 are also numbers that pop into mind quickly. I rarely think of the number 4 so I assume other people also rarely think of it. " 273,4,"Many people, thinking the number must be unique, would probably choose a smallish number, probably two digits. Others, thinking further, might decide to pick the number 1 in the hope that nobody else would think of doing so. In the end, I decided on 4 as I thought it sounded not random enough to be picked by others." 274,4,"Trolls will select 1, reasonable people might pick 2 or 3. 4 is a number that maybe a lot of people will forget about? (Poor 4)" 275,4,who knows 276,4,The winning integer will be lower than most expect. 277,4,Seems more psychological than anything else. 278,4,"I figure people are going to overall avoid low numbers, since they will guess that it won't be unique in a competition to pick a low number. This will create an opportunity for a low number to win. On the flip side, I think some people are going to try to pick a low number hoping that others will have been avoiding it for the reason above. 4 seemed like a good compromise." 279,4,I've won this game in the past with 4 280,4,Data scientist 281,4,"Many people will try to submit relatively high numbers. Some people will realize this and submit numbers closer to 1 as a result, trying to win. I guess that most people will not think to submit 4 and will rather go for the low-hanging fruit of 1, 2, or 3." 282,4,"I am guessing that folks will avoid picking a very low number, so I am trying to exploit that by picking a low number. Except that at least one person will try this same strategy for 1-3, so I am picking 4 (I don't expect it to work). " 283,4,"1 or 2 is too low. When picking a random number, I suspect most people lean towards odd numbers, so, 4 it is. Probably way too low; this one seems ripe for collusion and automated entries..." 284,4,4 is a good number. 285,4,"Some one will inevitably pick 1 or 2, but maybe skip the next few for higher ones" 286,4,"I suspect most people who think on this are going to try for prime numbers. One is altogether too cute and someone will try it. Four is the first non-one prime number. Course, anything you can count on your fingers is a likely target, so but I can't think of a better criteria off hand." 287,4,It's one of the smallest positive integers. 288,4,Because it's gonna win! 289,4,"Last week there were 3 comments on the Riddler page. I assume more people participate than comment, but there can't be thousands of participants so why not try for a non-round, non-prime number near the bottom of the pile? " 290,4,I picked 4. 291,4,it's the lowest number that no one else will pick. 292,4,"I was taking too long trying to think about Nash equilibrium and estimating the number of people that will be playing this game, so I decided to ignore all of that and guess a small number that might be overlooked. Also I like the number 4." 293,4,"I'm betting most people will be assuming that the lowest numbers (1-10) are already taken and won't choose those. Of course, there are others like me thinking the same thing and would then choose them, so while I'd *like* to choose ""1,"" I'm not, because I figure there's at least one other person out there who did so based on that same thought process. So, I decided to stick with a low number, but choosing four, as I just feel like it's gonna be skipped over." 294,4,"I reviewed studies showing that, when selecting a number at random, people are more likely to pick odd numbers and prime numbers than computers are. So I picked the lowest even, non-prime integer that was available." 295,4,4 is an integer 296,4,"4 is a pretty unassuming number. I figure 1 to 3 will get a fair number of picks, and beyond that random selections of larger numbers." 297,4,People will overlook low numbers because they are too obvious. I think 4 as an even number might get jumped by many people. 298,4,Trusting my gut 299,4,The first three numbers have already been selected ;) and no one will think of submitting 4. 300,4,It's my favorite 301,4,"The lowest number is 1, but probably a few people picked that assuming that no one else would risk picking the lowest number. A few people realizing that 1 is a bad number probably picked 2. Some other people picked 3 because of the first two assumptions and because 3 is lucky for some people. If you didn't pick 1, 2, or 3 then it's probably just up in the air and you pick a lucky or favorite number. I picked 4 because its low enough to have a good shot and because its a stupid enough number that maybe no one else picked it." 302,4,"I feel like there are 2 groups of people in this world: bold and timid. There will be some bold guesses of 1, 2, and 3, and some high number guesses. I'm hoping no one thinks about the number 4!" 303,4,aa 304,4,aa 305,4,aa 306,4,cause no one else would? 307,4,My girlfriend liked it 308,4,Hmmm - wild guess 309,4,"Chosen on the off chance that people avoid the single digits. 4 seems slightly more plausibly not chosen than 1, 2, or 3." 310,4,get em all 311,4,Just a random guess 312,4,Going for the gold. 313,4,I don't think anyone will pick 4. 314,4,"Didn't feel right, a little too low and a little too high" 315,4,Maybe people will skip it! 316,4,aa 317,4,It is an unlucky number in China. 318,4,"http://scienceblogs.com/cognitivedaily/2007/02/05/is-17-the-most-random-number/ in between where other people highly likely put there money (1,2,3) and where more sophisticated estimations would land." 319,4,"This is the lowest number I could convince myself to try. I figure quick responders that would answer 1 just for kicks may go through a logical iteration or two, but not three. I expect to lose this game and am curious to see by how much." 320,4,"hope this number had been forgotten to try as a forgotten one as it is highly unattractive number. The One could be tanken by notunderstanding the question, Two for ""nobody would go so low reasonably, Three not for the reason as Two so next one is Four. Four is a little further from One and an unattractive number, makes it more likely to be forgotten in the game. Everything else comes to luck in gambling. " 321,4,Guess 322,4,"The lowest integers will likely have multiple submissions, but who picks 4? Me." 323,4,A lot of people would choose the lowest positive integer i.e 1 without reading that you need a unique number. The next number is 2. The smarter ones will go for that. 324,4,I believe 4 will go unnoticed. 325,4,Seems solid to me. 326,4,"I'm hoping a large majority of people assume that they must pick a large number to have a chance, leaving a small number open. Though it seems unlikely, picking between 1 and 10 under the 10% likelihood that one of them is open leaves a much better chance than picking between 100 and 500 with a 75% likelihood one of them is open." 327,4,No reason. 328,4,Cause it's even 329,4,"I sacrificed a virgin to a volcano, and my god instructed me to submit the number 4. My magic 8-ball concurred." 330,4,"I didn't do much work. Not even sure how many people are likely to reply to this. But I am being a bit of a contraction in choosing this, thinking no one will choose such low a number for fear of a collision. " 331,4,Some will choose very low numbers in the hopes that they were skipped by all others. I'm hoping four is the first one that is truly skipped by everybody! 332,4,Trying to get lucky 333,4,"Psychologically, people will tend to go for numbers that are odd and seem unique, such as primes. I also think many people will attempt to go for 1 and 2. So I went for the first compound number above 1." 334,4,"Honestly not really sure, figured that most people would go something higher as to be unique but first the numbers would still be taken." 335,4,Low :) 336,4,"Rule of three. I thought people would be more likely to pick 1, 2, or 3, but perhaps not 4." 337,4,4 is the magic number 338,4,everyone's gonna overthink it 339,5,oh come on 340,5, 341,5,"Theoretically speaking, the likelihood of a lower number being chosen is very likely, therefore making it not unique and not a winner. People who know this will then think about choosing a higher number. It just comes down to luck of who will pick what number, depending on their rationale and why they pick a particular number. I am willing to bet that 1-4 will be taken, but someone will think it is ridiculous to still pick a single digit number since others will have the opportunity to do so. So I am choosing a single digit number that isn't small, isn't a lucky number ( 7 13 etc) and one that is still risky enough to be close. " 342,5,Most people choose 6 or 7 but nobody ever thinks of 5 343,5,You have to go for a low number and just hope no one else picks it. 344,5,No work. Just intuition. 345,5,My kids picked it. 346,5,Thinking nobody (else) in their right mind would pick such a low number. Plus I like 5. 347,5,I used a random number generator 348,5,I'm greedy 349,5,um...it's my lucky number 350,5, . 351,5,get em all 352,5,Guess! 353,5,They'll never see it coming 354,5,aa 355,5,aa 356,5,"Hoping that the majority of people pick a high number, overlooking that people may leave some pretty low integers unpicked. " 357,5,I went with the most bland and common number I could think of since everyone will be going for the most unique. People will think single digit integers are too small to pick and be unique. 358,5,No reason. 359,5,"People don't really like to choose multiples of 5 because they're too ""predictable"". 10 would have been my second choice but I wanted to go as low as possible in case people were guessing mostly in the teens or twenties. " 360,5,Lowest possible number nobody will put here 361,5,It's a fairly common winner of the Nikoli Derby (http://www.nikoli.com/en/event/derby.html) 362,6,meh 363,6,"It is the only number (except 1) that the sum of all the primes up to 6 equal the sum of all the composite number up to 6, it is the smallest perfect number, it is the only perfect factorial, it is the largest integer to be both a factorial and a primorial, it is the only mean between a pair of twin primes which is triangular, and it is the only even evil perfect number. " 364,6,We'll see! 365,6,lucky guess 366,6,Guessing that most people are picking 10+ thinking that someone already went for obvious. Ignored 1-5 because the people who are thinking like me will go 1-5. plus 6 is a great a number. 367,6,"Most people will avoid low single digit numbers and try to probably guess some two or three digit numbers, which may actually make single digit numbers a good bet. Inevitably, other people will think of this, so the lowest single digit numbers are not a good option. I suspect the 1-5 will get multiple submissions, as will 7 (people seem to like the number 7), so I went with 6." 368,6,Hoping that other's overthink this and go too high 369,6,Someone has to ruin the low numbers for other people. 370,6,I hoped to get lucky 371,6,Who thinks of 6? 372,6,It's my favorite number 373,6,If figure people will avoid single-digit numbers on the assumption that they will all be taken. 374,6,"yeah, it's a guess" 375,6,"some people will go much higher thinking all the lower numbers are picked, its a gamble." 376,6,"It's low, but not too low, and people tend not to pick even numbers as much because they feel less random." 377,6,"1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 seem like obvious choices based on familiarity and common usage (1 is the lowest positive integer, a couple/duo/etc. for 2, lists of 3, table for 4, 5 fingers). After that, I would think most people would skip to the ""lucky"" number 7, leaving 6 as a, perhaps, lonely exclusion. Beyond that, I would think 8 or 9 might be reasonable choices, with response rates spiking again at 10 (our base numbering system), 13 (for being ""unlucky), and then slowly declining as one moves away from the lowest number with small spikes at ""round"" numbers (15, 20, 25, etc.)." 378,6,because somebody had to do it 379,6,lowballin 380,6,"Philosophy. Humans are 5-fingered, and when given the option to pick a number without constraints, 1-5 are normally chosen. 6 is the lowest number not likely to be picked thus." 381,6,"A bunch of people will choose 1 because they don't understand the question. Some will choose 2 because they realize my first point. A few will choose 3 because they understand the first two points. So that leaves those who will select high enough to be unique among 1000-2000 guesses. I'm guessing the number will be even because odd and prime numbers ""feel"" more unique, therefore more people will choose them. My gut tells me 4 is just too low. I suspect that most people who understand the question will pick much too high, like 117 or 89. 6 seems high enough to be the number yet low enough to seem too low to pick." 382,6,"I think that people will pick more prime numbers because of the word ""unique"" in the question. Six isn't one, and is also fairly low." 383,6,I thought all the other numbers were taken. I could be wrong. 384,6,Most boring number between 1-10. 385,6,"It sounded like the smallest ""uninteresting"" number. It's one less than lucky seven." 386,6,random guess 387,6,Why not? 388,6,"My guess is most responses will fall either in the two-digit range, or very low numbers like 1, 2, 3 (hey, someone’s gotta go for it). I figure there’s a slim chance I could slip in between those groups." 389,6,"Guessing most people guess odd numbers, and choosing so low because hoping no one else will" 390,6,I think most of the numbers will be lowish 2-digits. I think everyone else will miss this one. 391,6,6 it is 392,6,I figure 7 is going to be popular - so guessed one below that. 393,6,High enough but not to high 394,6,get em all 395,6,"just a guess - relatively low given how many people will probably submit an answer, but high risk is required to win this game." 396,6,Figured I'd take a shot that most people would pick higher numbers assuming the low numbers wouldn't be unique. Chose 6 as it seemed the least interesting of the group between 3 and 12. 397,6,I think the numbers 1-5 might be obvious and other people would choose larger numbers and overlook something like 6 398,6,6 399,6,"Assuming (without much evidence) on the order of 1,000 submissions. Thinking that people will over think and avoid small numbers. 6 seems fairly unloved. And there you have it." 400,6,It seems low enough 401,6,Intuition 402,6,"My first several ideas were all primes, so I'm going for a low but not too-low non-prime." 403,6,Guess something low that other people would think is too low 404,6,¯\_(ツ)_/¯ 405,6,aa 406,6,"6 is an unlucky, oft overlooked number." 407,6,"It’s low, but hopefully still a unique submission" 408,6,Dan Wilson... People like odd numbers. Figure many people will go higher. 409,6,2nd composite number 410,6,NO reason 411,6,It's my lucky number 412,6,I'm a genius 413,6,I assumed 1-5 would be covered 414,6,Counting on others to cover 1-5 multiple times. 415,6,"Assuming most people will be afraid to use small numbers, but others will try to outsmart the rest by using the lowest few." 416,6,I like 6 417,7,*shrugs* 418,7,George Costanza 419,7,"I think it might be a low number, but not too low to be unique" 420,7,I feel like everyone will go for 1-5 or higher random numbers. 421,7,Low enough to reasonably win; high enough to hopefully avoid spoilers 422,7,Just a fun number. What the hell. 423,7,seems lucky 424,7,"not to high, not too low, not too obvious " 425,7,I believe that all smaller numbers were chosen by at least one person by now. 426,7,get em all 427,7,My guess is most people will go much higher and a couple of people may try and poach the lower numbers. Hopefully only 1-6 428,7,Obviously 1-5 is gone. 6 is questionable but 7 is perfect. 429,7,"High enough to be unique, low enough to be low enough. " 430,7,I am going for broke and guessing that few people will choose really low numbers & I like the number seven. 431,7,"It's so obvious, no one else will think of it" 432,7,Chose 7 because I think people will go very low hoping nobody else will go low. 433,7,aa 434,7,"Prime number that people will overlook because they think the picked number will be higher, but its not too gimmicky because some people will try to cheat the system and use even lower numbers." 435,7,Cause nobody will ever pick 7. 436,8,Just 'cause... 437,8,"Riddler responders are the kind of people who will pick a nice, round number, just because they think everybody else is going to be too scared to pick one. Maybe I can get lucky by picking close to one such number?" 438,8,Have you ever heard of Plato? Aristotle? Socrates? Morons! 439,8,"It's pretty low. I originally thought to do 133, but let's live a little, ya know. " 440,8,"The low numbers will be taken, they just have to be. 7 will be taken, because it is a ""lucky"" number. So I went with the next lowest number. " 441,8,intuition? 442,8,"My original instinct was to put a - then hold down the '9' as long as I could, then copy and paste the numbers a few times. Then I saw that it was a positive integer. I then realized that integers include 0 and 1,2,3... etc . but was wondering if anyone would consider 0 to be positive. So then I decided to go for one, and talk about how it was the lowest positive integer. I then realized that it had to be unique! As in nobody else could pick your number! I then decided to go for my favorite number, 8, and hope for the best. I love the number 8 because I am a fan of Alexander Ovechkin, and am from the DMV area. I also thought that somebody is going to pick the so-called ""lucky"" number 7, and that the oft forgotten 8 would be the next lowest pick. *Dab*" 443,8,Gotta makes sure no one wins with a single digit number. But hey if I win I win. 444,8,... 445,8,Because it's luckier than 7. 446,8,Random 447,8,"My professor for game theory was Mark David Ward, who literally wrote the pa[er on inverse auction theory." 448,8,It's my favorite number 449,8,Because 8. 450,8,"1-5 will get selected and the likely hood of someone selecting 6,7,8 is probably close to the same" 451,8,"There are two large unknowns: 1) How many people are going to participate in this challenge. Clearly the smaller the number of participants, the more likely a small number will win. 2) How other people will answer. I'm going to assume that the distribution is bi-modal: - Greedy participants that'll choose some distribution near 1 - Conservative participants that'll choose a number avoiding the greedy participants clustered at 1 With these assumptions I'm imagining the distribution exponentially falling, but with a very high tail (e.g. 50*exp(-0.5*x) + 2). Given this I'm hoping that there will be a Poisson fluctuation down to zero in the 5-15 range. We'll see how unique my thinking is. (Can't wait to see the distribution peak between 5-15, lol)" 452,8,High single to low double digit may slip through. 453,8,It's less than 9. 454,8,Random! 455,8,Someone has to pick the low numbers :-) 456,8,it's gonna be low 457,8,Seems like a good spot 458,8,Seems pretty obvious that at least someone would pick 7. 459,8,"I almost submitted '1', on the theory that someone had to, but then thought that since that was my first inclination, someone else would. I thought about '0', on the theory that the populace at large might not think it was 'positive', but that the judges at 538 might think it was. I rejected that because 0 really isn't positive, and I didn't want to win with something I thought was wrong. If 0 wins, I'd rather be righteously indignant ;-) I ended up going with 8 because with all its factors, it seems like a very 'common' number, while other people might try to come up with a 'unique' number like 7 or 13. We'll see! Without knowing how many people will participate, it's hard to make a decision." 460,8,0 - 7 might be non-unique.. 461,8,So I dont feel foolish if someone else wins with 8. 462,8,This number just doesn't seem like many people would pick it. 463,8,My wife says 8. Gotta pick your battles. ;-) 464,8,get em all 465,8,Common number but not the most common. 466,8,why not? 467,8,Crazy Eights 468,8,Balance 469,8,"It's impossible to give a good defense of any given number if you don't know how many people are playing. Seven (along with three) is famously the numeral people are most likely to choose at random; eight is the next-lowest number. It's an unassuming number. If 8 isn't the lowest number, well, there must be *somebody* submitting these small numbers. Why not me? I dunno." 470,8,It felt right 471,8,"dunno, I like 8" 472,8,"I feel like no one will choose low numbers because it would be obvious. I think majority of numbers chosen will be between 15-30, but no one will go for a low number like 8. Taking a risk" 473,8,"idk man, 8's too predictable i guess" 474,8,"Low, even." 475,8,aa 476,8,It felt right 477,8,Favorite number 478,8,8 479,8,Snowman for good luck. 480,8,Eight is a popular satisfying number. I think people will tend to pick numbers that feel obscure and that tend to be too high. 481,8,i have no idea 482,8,It's the lowest unique number of all responses you'll receive. 483,8,"There is no Nash equilibrium in pure strategies for this game, so lets pretend I computed a mixed strategy Nash equilibrium, randomized appropriately and came up with a choice of 8. Or maybe I just like the number 8." 484,9,Hope no one else picks it 485,9,It came to me in a dream. 486,9,"There is no work. 9, because why the fuck not? Who would be stupid enough to answer 9 to this question?" 487,9,"A number comprised of a series of digits, subtracted from its reverse, always results in the same unique number for series of the same length. All 3 digit series of numbers (e.g. 345 subtracted from its reverse 543) result in 198. All 2 digit series of numbers (e.g. 12 or 23 or 34) when subtracted from their reverse, result in 9. 9 is the lowest possible unique number since two digits is the shortest possible series of positive integers." 488,9,I think everyone else will mindgame themself off of picking a 1-digit number 489,9,Birth Date. Usually this number chase me 490,9,"unclear how many people will participate, but I'm guessing it will be enough that at least two might choose each of the lower integers. " 491,9,it's a good number 492,9,"You have to pick something. I picked a very low number, but figured that other people would pick the few numbers below mine." 493,9,4+5=9 494,9,Because 7 8 9 495,9,"Pretty arbitrary, to be honest" 496,9,"A unique number is the difference, a constant, between consecutive digits in ascending order and descending order. The lowest unique number, also a positive integer, is 9. 21-12=9, 32-23=8, etc. " 497,9,It all comes back to 9. 498,9,"I think nine might be lower than the actual answer, but maybe everyone else will think that too." 499,9,The optimal answer depends on the (unknown) number of participants and their (unknown) strategies. 500,9,Seemed like a good number. 501,9,intuition 502,9,"It's my favorite number, low, and I'm guessing that people will go mostly higher to try to be unique." 503,9,If you flip it upside down its a 6 504,9,Its my habit to think of 9 when I'm asked to pick a number 505,9,Why would anyone pick 9? 506,9,Random guess 507,9,get em all 508,9,get em all 509,9,Favorite number 510,9,Lucky number 511,9,Benfords law/hoping ppl overthink and go too high 512,9,"When I described the task to a friend's very bright four-year-old, she suggested it. " 513,9,"I do this game at the end of my middle school math classes, if we have a minute or two of free time at the end of the period. All the kids write down a positive integer on their paper (without showing anyone else their number) and then I call out, ""who wrote 1?"" If one person (and only one!) raises their hand, they win. If more than one, they're all out. Then I ask, ""who wrote 2?"" etc. Until we find the unique lowest number. The kids get a kick out of it, and try to psychoanalyze each other to change their guess each round. One class I had a kid who wrote ""1"" ALWAYS -- so if the class didn't want him to win, *someone* had to sacrifice themselves and write, ""1,"" too :) The winner is pretty much always a number from 1 to 10. But the class is only a class of 27 or so... so who knows if among your multitudes of participants, if the answer will be bigger...?" 514,9,"Nine, nine nie nine. Nine nine: nine." 515,9,aa 516,9,"Numerous people will all pick 1, 2, or 3, so those numbers are foolish choices. A few sly people will shoot for 4, 5, or 6, as I was tempted to do. The numbers 7 and 8 are way too popular, so I, of course, must choose 9. ""Never go in against a Sicilian when death is on the line!""" 517,9,Guess 518,9, 519,9,People will overlook a random low figure attempting to accurately predict a higher figure; discounting the linear nature of the problem. 520,9,"It's a gamble that some people will try for lower single digit numbers and others will try for higher primes, missing out on a high single digit like 9." 521,9,"guessing that others will go much higher, expecting all lower numbers to be guessed" 522,10,I feel like most people will pick an odd or prime number thinking it will be unique. All single digit number will probably be submitted. 10 feels like a number that people will not choose because it is too commonly used. 523,10,"Most of the single digit numbers will be taken by people trying to go as low as possible or just prevent others from winning. You must go reasonably high to guarantee uniqueness, but that gives you almost no chance of winning. I saw 10 as a number that not many would choose because is has the perception of being a number everyone thinks of, thus causing no one to choose it. 10 is a very low number, but not low enough to get everyone thinking to pick it. " 524,10,"Applying some reverse psychology. People will probably go for more ""unique"" numbers, so I'll pick a nice round number." 525,10,"It ""looks"" less random than odds, primes, etc. So perhaps nobody will choose it, because it seems less obvious." 526,10,"There's a small amount of empirical data showing 10 is statistically less popular than other small numbers in the decimal system. Assuming lots of people guess a single or small double-digit number ""just in case"", why not try a lower popularity small integer." 527,10,"I figured people may be trying to think of odd, prime, or ""more unique"" numbers than a nice easy round 10. 10 is probably too low to be unique, but worth a shot. " 528,10,"Just a feeling it might be overlooked. This is so volatile I thought people might neglect picking a ""normal"" or ""base"" number" 529,10,Someone will forget about the lowest 2-digit number 530,10,¯\_(ツ)_/¯ 531,10,"Hoping to get lucky and that others think it's too low and too ""round"" to be played. I'd expect the real answer to be at Number of Participants divided by 20ish though." 532,10,"I figure people will try the first few numbers. After that, most people will pick a ""random"" low number. When people try to pick a random number it often times follows a subconscious set of rules (not even, not numbers that are divisible, not numbers that mean something), and most people end up picking the same ""random"" number. 10 is probably too low, but it might just sneak in since it holds so much significance that no one else will pick it. Therefore, I can clearly not choose the wine in front of you." 533,10,"Teachers have a knack in multiple choice A-D questions to hide their answers in the middle (B or C), and in a similar way, I think that people submitting this answer will feel safer with a number that appears hidden (I'm guessing that odd integers not divisible by 5 will be the most common answer in this riddle). While I think that there will be those trying to outsmart the game by choosing ""1"" or ""2,"" I think 10 as the base for our decimal numerical system is perceived as too common for being an answer, and something undesirable for entering into a situation that calls for the perception of being unique. Unfortunately, by submitting a form that requires people to ""show your work,"" it is likely encouraging everyone to overthink this problem, which will likely result in several others choosing 10 as an all too common number. If this were the case, I fell victim to one of the classic blunders. The most famous is Never get involved in a land war in Asia, but only slightly less well known is this: Never go in against a Sicilian when death is on the line." 534,10,Seems like a number many people would skip because it is too obvious. 535,10,"How many fingers do you have? Yeah, 10. That's what I thought." 536,10,"I suspect all one-digit numbers will be chosen. Prime and odd numbers seem more ""unique"" so I suspect they will go as well. 10 may or may not. " 537,10,"well, I figured if 10 is the least commonly picked number between 1 and 10, then it has a better than average chance of not being picked. see also https://web.archive.org/web/20150228025301/http://nfrom1to10.appspot.com/results/" 538,10,"Just instinct. The lowest few numbers actually seem promising, because everyone will be thinking ""no one would pick numbers THAT small, too obvious"". However, others will be thinking that too! So at least a few will choose very small numbers, thinking they are going against the grain. So I want to go a little higher; seems like 10 is somewhat ""obvious"" too, so I hope won't be chosen by anyone else." 539,10,I chose this answer for shits and for gigs 540,10,Champion of the most recent Nikoli Derby 541,10,"Critical information seems to be the expected number of submissions which I really have no idea on, so this is a wild guess." 542,10,Nobody's favourite number. Lowest non single-digit. Depends on response volume - unknown. 543,10,get em all 544,10,Others may avoid round numbers 545,10,idk 546,10,Fav 547,10,"I'm going with 10 because I'm guessing all the single-digit numbers will be taken. 10 seems like a nice round number to guess, and I'm banking on everyone else thinking the same and opting for a less obvious number. :)" 548,10,aa 549,10,aa 550,10,"Without knowing the number of people who will submit numbers, I guess that the lower numbers will be duplicated but the higher numbers will be too high, plus people will choose non-obvious numbers, so 10 has a chance of bring the lowest unique number because of its obviousness. " 551,10,I picked something that seemed like a popular nimbler hoping people would avoid it. 552,10,"Gotta go low. My first thought was 17, but I recognized that I was choosing it because it's an ugly number and therefore seems unique... but other people likely had the same reflex. 10 is too obvious. Maybe so obvious that it was overlooked?" 553,10,Meh 554,10,Everybody is going to think 10 will be taken! 555,10,Too round to be common 556,10,I expect others will overthink it. Or will cheat by making many many submissions 557,10,"Because it's a common, but not common, number. " 558,10,"Figured enough people would answer, that it would likely not be a single digit. On the other hand, wanted to pick a number that wouldn't be considered 'unique' by other people trying to guess. This question is similar to lowest unique bid auctions." 559,10,"Relatively low if we imagine lots of responses. Also, it does not feel like a ""rare"" number that people may pick. But perhaps everyone does. " 560,10,God 561,10,Guess 562,10,it seems low but too obvious for other people to choose. Also I feel like this depends partially on how many responces you typically get. I def wouldn't pick 7 tho--I bet theres a lot of 7s lol. 563,10,round numbers may be too obvious to select 564,10,The number is probably going to be a low number that people assumed others already chose. When selecting a number people are more likely to choose an odd number and prime numbers because they believe others will not think of it. I chose 10 because it is an obvious number that most people will probably forget about. 565,10,lowest positive integer is just any whole number and I suspect a lot of people will send in 1-5. The plan is then to pick a number that people would not regularly choose. 566,10,"https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/most-popular-numbers-grapes-of-math/ On that list the lowest number after 1 is 10. I wanted to not count that because it's such a round number but then the next is 16 and there has to be nerds guessing all the powers of 2 and the next is 18 (chai) so I didn't want to guess that so 10 it is..." 567,10,"""ten is a stupid number to pick, pick a weird number that nobody else will"" " 568,10,Seems like a number that is too common to be common 569,11,"The assumption is that most people will pick higher numbers in an effort to be unique. Some people will pick number one as a gamble against everyone outsmarting themselves. People will continue to pick either low of high (3 digit) numbers leaving a gap of 2 digit numbers. I'm estimating numbers 1-10 will be chosen more than once (just by counting fingers) so I'm trying eleven (Count Rugen may ruin this plan)" 570,11,Because 571,11,"Obviously most really low numbers (1-10) are going to be picked by a large number of people. This might mean that they're actually a good choice, since most people will realize that and avoid them. But I anticipate the Riddler audience will contain a decent number of 'one level up' readers, who will understand that. This leads to the Sicilian Problem - I have to model what level my opponents are playing at. Eventually, this path leads to madness and indecision. I considered submitting my age, or a moderately-large prime number (or, better, one less than a moderately large prime) but I then decided '11 will do'. I doubt this was unique, though. Still, it should be more unique than most lower-level players will do, though anticipated by higher-level players than myself." 572,11,Seems like a nice enough number to choose 573,11,"Some people will choose 1. Realizing that, some people will choose 2. Realizing that, some people will choose 3, etc. etc. The trick is to go one step further than everyone else, but how? The previous popular submissions (Riddler Nation wars 1&2) had approximately 1,000 entries. Let's assume 1,000 will enter this one too, because it's a nice easy number. Assuming they're all logical player, let's say half (500 players) choose 1, half as many of that (250 players) choose 2, etc. This means by the time we get to 10, we're down to 0.977 players (let's round that to 1)." 574,11,"The battle for Riddler nation had 1382 submission. If half those people pick 1, and half of the remainder pick 2, and half of the remainder pick 3 and so on, the first number without a whole person left to pick it is 11. So basically this is a wild guess. " 575,11,The density will decrease rapidly as the integers get larger; I think there is a psychological anchor at double digits 576,11,"I think everyone will try a single digit number. I feel most people will be hesitant to use a double digit number, except those that are much higher." 577,11,Born on the 11th 578,11,It felt right. 579,11,Mine goes to 11 580,11,S.W.A.G.: A scientific wild-ass guess. 581,11,No real reason 582,11,completely arbitrary 583,11,"Oh, it is mostly a guess. I figured the single digits were likely to be duplicated, but that there might be better odds with the low double digits. " 584,11,"Trying to anticipate how quickly people will leave single digits is tricky. 11 is just beyond the double digit threshold. It's also prime, which I feel like may make it more forgettable. Finally, it was my number in baseball growing up. " 585,11,There will be a big cluster close to one then a random dispersal trailing to a round 1-billion. 11 feels big so people will avoid it. God's speed! 586,11,Most people will choose a number 10 or lower or a common number. I chose the lowest prime above 10. 587,11,"It was difficult to gauge how many people submit to the Riddler Express, for that seems an important piece. But in the absence of said information, I went with 11, the first double digit prime. There is no dominant strategy, for if there was, someone else would pick it, and then we'd lose. We have to guess under the number of players N, as some number under that would be a winner. Otherwise, it might be best to avoid low numbers, as someone is bound to try going low, and avoiding commonly chosen numbers (7,10,12,etc.)." 588,11,"Restating the challenge, we are to pick a number that is sufficiently low, and sufficiently unpopular. The only rule that I used in determining popularity was to choose a prime number. I've observed a tendency when people are asked to name a number at random to pick a nonprime number. There is something innately attractive about numbers that can be divided evenly by other integers. While I haven't rigorously tested this, a quick perusal of numbers selected as favorites, such as sports uniform numbers or NASCAR vehicle numbers leads me to believe that prime numbers--especially two-digit prime numbers--appear less frequently than if numbers were assigned by mere chance. So then the question is what the lowest number that is unlikely to be selected by anyone else likely to be. I selected 11, because it is the first two-digit prime. For whatever reason, I think that single digit primes are exceptions to the rule that prime numbers tend to be less popular than nonprimes. " 589,11,It is my favorite number 590,11,"A guess that more than 1 someones will go for the gusto of 1-9, so I expected a whole bunch of 10s. I was also born in November." 591,11,pretty much chosen at random 592,11,"I figure that all numbers up to 10 will be chosen a bunch. Pretty arbitrary, but there's really nothing else to be done here than guess." 593,11,It's kind of low? 594,11,Just going with my gut. 595,11,get em all 596,11,I have no idea how many people submit here... 597,11,Well... 598,11,11 is my favorite number! 599,11,"It's my second favourite number, I thought my favourite (6) was too low:)" 600,11,"It's my lucky number. It's low enough that I could see it actually winning, but since it's not single digit hopefully no one else guesses it." 601,11,There is no way that people all doubled up on any numbers higher than this (or at least the odds feel pretty slim) at the same time I feel like it fits the happy medium of non repeatable and still low enough 602,11,My reasons are my own. 603,11,It's a prime number and it's lowish. I think people don't often think about the number 11. 604,11,First Prime number above 10 605,11,aa 606,11,Low but not too low plus a prime. Hoping people will over think this 607,11,Gotta risk it. 608,11,- 609,11,N/A - 610,11,Picking a large # is a crapshoot. Hoping people overestimate the number of others picking low numbers and choose #'s which are too large. 11 is a prime so its hard to arrive at by chance. 611,11,"Perhaps people will exhaust the counting numbers, but not touch the teens?" 612,11,"It is the best number, even if it is wrong." 613,11,Its just a guess 614,11,guess 615,12,the largest monosyllabic number (in English) 616,12,"it's a low double digit, non-prime, non-square that hopefully people won't spam up to" 617,12,I have no clue. 618,12,it's a dozen 619,12,Most counter-intuitive answer above 10 620,12,"It's a good number, Brent." 621,12,Why not 12? 622,12,Lucky guess 623,12,"It's an even, easily divisible number so unlikely to be picked by people who are trying to find a random number that others won't choose, but very low also, so if I am in fact the only person to choose this number it is likely I will win." 624,12,"It's my favorite number, and it's small enough to win but large enough that people won't get there by adding a few to 1." 625,12,Bots are going to make me wrong :( 626,12,Because 1 + 2 = 12 627,12,"I don't have real ""work."" And since I'm unsure how many submissions you receive, I can't do much in the way of estimation. My logic followed that all single digits would likely be chosen, therefore duplicated. I'd guess the first unique number would be between 11-30, roughly, so I went on the low end." 628,12,Random number generator 629,12,Gut. 630,12,It is high enough to be out of 1-10 and not too common of a number. 631,12,1-10 has a large probability of being chosen. 11 also has a high chance. 632,12,"It ""feels"" right" 633,12,Just guessing 634,12,i chose 12 635,12,12 636,12,Was chosen by a random number generator 637,12,why not? 638,12,Not so low that anyone will pick it 639,12,"I thought the single digits would all be taken, but once we're into double digits, I don't think there's anything special about 12. Also, each number higher you declare requires that every single number less has 0 or >1 guess, so I think the actual answer is likely to be below the average (and also the median) submission." 640,12,"I think picking a number between 1 - 10 is too risky given the number of people that read this website. Also, I think it's likely multiple people will think they are clever in picking low, uncommon prime numbers. People making their choices based on what they think other people did are more likely to avoid commonly used numbers. Therefore, the greatest commonly used number greater than 10 is 12." 641,12,Lucky Guess 642,12,Classic gut instinct. Great problem. 643,12,Thinking 644,12,"Many people will choose small numbers. Many people will pick odd numbers like 3,5, 11,17 etc. So 12 seemed about right. The main issue is how many people are participating. The more participants the more crowded the smaller numbers get. I guessed it's hundreds and so thought 12 was about right." 645,12,Favorite number 646,12,Not a single digit + not 11? 647,12,get em all 648,12,Because 649,12,"Figured most people would avoid low double digits, but that a lot of gutsy players would aim for each of the single digits. I've got a feeling that there will be a gap of sorts between the slamming 9-1 get and the group of people who flock to the high 20s and 30s. Just a feeling. " 650,12,because twelve is the twelviest 651,12,Someone will pick 1 through 10. So an unlikely number above 10 I guess 12 652,12,"I figure a lot of people are going to choose relatively high numbers, so I'm just trying to undercut them." 653,12,Assume all single digit numbers will be selected. 654,12,I hope that people are attracted to prime numbers. 12 is the opposite of that. 655,12,Relying on luck. 656,12,Birthday 657,12,Gut feeling 658,12,"I figure all the primes will attract people, as will 1-10, so I picked the next number that isn't a prime and is over 10." 659,12,aa 660,12,I assume others will overestimate the risk of choosing numbers with many dividers. 661,12,Pure guesswork :) 662,12,My birthday 663,12,whim 664,12,Seems legit 665,12,Wild guess 666,12,12 is an ugly number. 667,12,"I think all numbers under 10 will be selected, as well as unique numbers like prime numbers. So, I picked 12 which is the lowest number over 10 and not prime." 668,12,"I think most people will anchor to odd numbers because your intuitive first thought upon seeing lowest positive integer is 1. Based on typical follower interaction, I anticipate maybe 150 responses, and I think all single digit responses will be used multiple times. Also wanted to avoid any ""round"" numbers such as 10 that easily come to mind. " 669,12,So obvious it has to be it. 670,12,deep thoughts. 671,12,"12 is so ordinary i think it might be missed. When people think unique they tend to prime numbers, and 12 is pretty much the complete opposite of a prime number" 672,13,my birthdate 673,13,It's unlucky. 674,13,Its a guess. 675,13,Guess 676,13,"""I'm not superstitious, but I'm a little stitious""" 677,13,Betting on the superstitions of others 678,13,triskaidekaphilia 679,13,No real reason. 680,13,Lucky number 681,13,13 682,13,People generally think 13 is unlucky so maybe they wont pick it. If enough people play it could work! Sorry... don't have enough time to get mathy with it. 683,13,"I figured some luck was needed, so let's go unlucky and prime. Probably not..." 684,13,"Everyone will aim very high or very low, and no one seems to like the number 13" 685,13,"everyone will pick 1, 2, 3 etc. There's diminishing returns to picking a higher number at some point. I'm also at work and don't have the time to calculate what that sweet spot is, so 13 is a solid lick finger test the wind direction kinda thing. I also don't play golf, and I don't know if that metaphor even makes sense anymore, so there you go :)" 686,13,1 + 3 = 13 687,13,People's subconscious fear of the number 13. 688,13,"It's pretty low, but the type of unlucky number I'm hopeful others will avoid." 689,13,Simple guess due to trolls and Nash equilibrium 690,13,"We played this game in my intro info theory class, I was one of the suckers who picked 1 thinking no on else would. Lots of people did. The distribution was approximately exponential, with 30 people and the winner picked six. I figure at this much higher scale, doubling feels right, and 13 is a cooler number than 12. Totally an eyeballing guess." 691,13,"Unlucky, maybe that will make people avoid it." 692,13,I've really got nothing to go on other than dumb luck. 693,13,Numbers below 10 are probably gonna be filled with trolls. The best option. Like the coffee pot problem is to take as low as a reasonable number as possible. 694,13,get em all 695,13,Balance between to low and not low enough. People also have an irrational fear of 13. 696,13,"I assumed fewer people would go for unlucky 13. ""Fewer"" as in no-one else, hopefully." 697,13,Luck 698,13,27 699,13,It is my lucky number 700,13,Favourite number 701,13,13 needs some love. 702,13,Intuitive 703,13,It's unlucky. Nobody else wants to pick it. 704,13,"I figured the lowest number will be lower than most anticipate, but the trolls will make sure 1-10 are off the board" 705,13,aa 706,13,aa 707,13,"13 seems low, and I think there might be a psychological barrier to picking an ""unlucky"" number. " 708,13,"I computed the Nash equilibrium mixed strategy for this game, estimating 3000 players, and then took the first random number there. Surprisingly (to me at least), it looks irrational to play a number larger than 445 with 3000 players." 709,13,"Because it's prime, it's in the Fibonacci sequence, and Triskadecaphobes won't choose it. " 710,13,It is unlucky. ;) 711,14,Hopefully no one else picks it! 712,14,Least obvious number after 7. 713,14,Pete Rose 714,14,I figure most people will pick odd numbers. 715,14,random 716,14,Largely at random 717,14,I figure all the numbers 1-12 will be chosen more than once and 13 is unlucky. 718,14,"I started by trying to figure out the best number mathematically but then realized that everyone else can do that as well. So then I figured I'd just pick 1 because no one would pick 1. But then I realized that other people would do that as well and then I didn't want to mess with the chance that they wouldn't choose it because they knew other people knew that other other people wouldn't choose it because it's the lowest. Then I was like screw logic I'm picking 14. Also 110 isn't much loved so I was going to go with that, but then I thought someone in riddler nation might also have access to google so I was like screw it I'm going with 14." 719,14,It's my birthday today 720,14,14 721,14,feelin good abt it 722,14,"I think all of the single digits will be chosen, plus ""lucky"" numbers 11 and 13. 10 is a decade or anniversary and 12 is a dozen, so they're associated with common things in people's heads. 14 is the first double digit, non-lucky, non-associated number." 723,14,I picked a number. 724,14,I think people will try to go for prime numbers because they look unique so I am going to try to miss that with 14 725,14,My jersey number for hockey - it has to be lucky one of these days! 726,14,"Single digits and primes- right out and single digits are obvious (even in the double-bluff way), and primes are the clever person's way to sneak in. I took the lowest multiple (excluding 12- a number so ubiquitous it may as well be a single digit)." 727,14,it is the most overlooked of the teens 728,14,"Even numbers less popular than odd numbers, trying to sneak in with a low one" 729,14,"I'm bold, but pragmatic." 730,14,"14 is lower than numbers higher than it, but also higher than numbers lower than it. That is very common for numbers." 731,14,Let's do some game theory 732,14,Hoping 1-13 will all have duplicates 733,14,Just a random number 734,14,*shrug* 735,14,Seemed good 736,14,"With apologies to the integer 14, 14 was the smallest positive integer that I found to be ""uninteresting."" I was trying to find a balance between a number that would still be competitive, but would be hopefully overlooked by other players of the game. " 737,14,It seems like a nice numebr 738,14,why not 739,14,I'm hoping people go high in order to try and win and people neglect the fact that that opens up the smaller numbers. Also 14 is my favorite number. 740,14,"Nothing 1-10 is getting through. 11 and 13 are prime, and I think people are drawn to prime. 12 has too many stinking factors. 14 it is!" 741,14,guesswork 742,14,first number above 13 743,14,Have to pick a low-ish number to win. I figure all single digits will be chosen. So why not 14??? 744,14,"I was winging it, though I think an even number is safer than an odd one." 745,14,"Somebody will pick 1, hoping that nobody will pick a number that low. Others will pick their favorite numbers, which tend to be low. Who cares about 14?" 746,14,Just a guess. 747,14,Why not? 748,14,Think most will go up to 13...lucky number for most. 749,14,This is tougher without knowing how many submissions to expect. I went with 14 on a hunch no one else picked it based on perceived number popularity. I suspect the lower numbers will be taken if for no other reason that people decided they couldn't pass it up in the event that they may be the only one to pick it. The other number is almost chose is 32 because it is the first not birthday number in play. Not much math involved here... 750,14,"I'm ruling out single digit numbers for random passers by that are just hitting a random number. 11 and 13 are lucky numbers, 12 is a multiple of too many things. 10 is too round, I figured (a multiple of 5) - 1 was most likely to be ignored by people." 751,14,Most people will chose single digit or odd numbers 752,14,Most people will chose single digit or odd numbers 753,14,1-10 are obviously out. 11and 13 are primes and will get picked. I would say 12 but I feel like someone will pick it. 14 is very boring. 754,14,i've done this at work and usually the number is way lower than you'd think but i feel like way more people will send in numbers also someone will pick 13 755,14,"It's not a prime number, and it isn't round, it doesn't have a lot of factors. It's just not an interesting number." 756,14,Because crowsmilk 757,14,"high enough to be plausibly unpicked (someone will still pick 1, 2, etc. even with the game theory involved), and low enough to possibly be the lowest unique. Knowing the expected number of responses could make this more exact.." 758,14,no one likes 14 759,14,"I suspect that the least chosen numbers are going to be the most unobtrusive numbers. Odd numbers, primes, and powers of 2 will probably be among the most commonly chosen, based on common results from asking people to pick numbers between 1 and 10. 14 is even, not a power of 2, and does not otherwise have commonly appreciated properties (like 10). This holds for 6 as well, but 6 is small enough that I'm guessing it's more likely to be chosen by others." 760,14,Why not? 761,14,"People likely to pick 13 as it's an 'unlucky' number--thinking, othees won't pick it, and more likely to anchor to a lower number near zero. Therefore +1 is more likely." 762,14,Single digits will be taken. 10 and 13 are attractive numbers and will be taken. Others will think 11 and 12 are crazy enough it just may work. 14 is a forgotten number and will likely be overlooked 763,14,"First order thinking is to go low. Second order thinking is to avoid those people by going high. I'm going third order by trying to avoid both the first and second order people. Also maximizing my odds by avoiding ""common"" numbers (e.g. 10, 12, 15)." 764,14,get em all 765,14,13 seems too low. 15 is way too high. 766,14,HA! 767,14,SWAG 768,14,"It's small enough to be smallish, large enough that people don't immediately think of it, and is generally an underappreciated number that deserves more credit than it gets." 769,14,"I really don't know. 14 feels boring, and I didn't think of it at first so it's probably an okish pick." 770,14,it's my lucky number 771,14,Guess 772,14,"Odd number, near the start. " 773,14,It's the number I wear in sports 774,14,"Among the thousands that play, it's likely that at least 2 people have picked every single digit number. Prime numbers are too exciting. So I tried a low-ish but nondescript number that could easily be overlooked by everyone else. " 775,14,I like it. 776,14,Favourite number 777,14,because 778,14,A simple guess to help the site get a good number of guesses and assess the probability density function of user guesses better. 779,14,"Numbers one through ten will all be fairly heavily populated. Eleven is just two ones, too similar to the most obvious choice. Twelve is too nice a number, the product 2 x 2 x 3. Thirteen is an 'unlucky' number so people may have reservations about choosing thirteen. But, assuming anyone else follows my train of thought, they will choose 13, forcing me to choose 14." 780,14,aa 781,14,Just a guess 782,14,"Not too high, probably too low, but maybe I'll get lucky" 783,14,It seemed like a number few people would pick! 784,14,It's low but not very interesting. It's not a prime but doesn't have a lot of factors. I thought it'd be a low number others would be less likely to try. 785,14,Lucky number 786,14,14 is an unassuming number. 787,14,"This puzzle is great, in that it makes all attempts at a logical solution self-defeating. I choose my number for no reason, on the grounds that if I have a reason, someone else will probably have the same idea, which makes it a bad idea!" 788,14,"If I decide on a number it means that it is a number a human would think of in response to the question, thus it is more likely that other people will decide on that number. So I generated a random number from 1-30. With a random number generator. It's entirely possible that the RNG told me a number a human would pick, but it's more likely to pick a number a human wouldn't pick than a human is to pick a number a human wouldn't pick. 1-30 seems to have enough numbers which stand out (For people to avoid picking because they think they'd be popular) and enough numbers which don't (For people to not pick because they don't think of them) that I'm predicting that there will either be an unclaimed number or the winner in that range." 789,14,Just looking for low but inconspicuous number. 790,14,Pure Guess 791,14,no one thinks of 14 bro 792,14,"I figure there will be a team of people who aren't trying to win, but rather trying to prevent others from winning by submitting 1, 2, 3, etc. In trying to figure this out, I looked at Alex Bellos' work on the world's favorite number. Basically, every number from 1-10 is going to be wildly popular, since they are the most common, and they make up every other number. Submitting 1-10 would be highly risky. If it works, it would be because every other person was psyched out. After that, unique numbers like 11 and 12 (not called one-teen or tendy-two) will attract people to pick them, as will 13, a highly polarizing number). Therefore, I'm picking 14, in hopes that it will be ignored by everyone else. I think that people will try to be cheeky and guess numbers 1-13, and then try to submit some other numbers in the low 20s, but hopefully 14 bests them all." 793,14,guess 794,14,Here goes nothing. 795,14,First number that I didn't think would be an obvious choice 796,15,Nobody likes 15. 797,15,I looked for the smallest number not on this list: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/most-popular-numbers-grapes-of-math/ 798,15,"The one digit numbers will probably all be taken, and those who choose a 2-digit number will try to be sneaky and choose a non-obvious number. 15 might get overlooked. " 799,15,Aiming low and kinda round because I think others won't do that. 800,15,"I chose a low number on the assumption that everyone will think the low numbers will be in high demand and then choose higher numbers. Someone must choose the lower numbers. But I also assume the low-low numbers will be picked by other people with this mindset, so I'm hedging my bets with a slightly higher number. Also it's not a prime, because that seems too cliche :D" 801,15,"I was torn between choosing this, and choosing 4. I presume tons of people will trollishly choose 1 and 2, and probably a couple of people will choose 3-10. 15 seems both common enough (not prime, not as popular as similar numbers 13, 16, or 18) and boring enough to make it through." 802,15,. 803,15,"This is maybe the ultimate bluffing problem. In order to solve, we are required to pick exactly one of the countably infinite positive integers (not including zero, which is neither positive nor negative); and the winning requirements is to be the lowest UNIQUE positive integer. This problem begs people to avoid choosing very small integers like 1, 2, and 3, for example. However, some people will likely call the bluff and choose these small integers anyway just in case. It is a matter of choosing a number which is small enough to win, but random enough that there is probable cause it could win. Therefore, I picked the number 15 because it is my favorite number. There is really no logic to be had beyond taking a good guess and hoping nobody else chooses it." 804,15,Just hoping 805,15,Seemed about right 806,15,A shot in the dark 807,15,get em all 808,15,"probably the majority of 538 readers, if i'm predicting right, will think ""well, i can't pick a single digit number, because everyone else will have picked it, so i have to do something like... 25, to avoid hitting anyone else's number."" the people you're competing against are other readers of fivethirtyeight - it's reasonable to assume that these are people who are at least a standard deviation smarter than the average bear. then, you divide that group further given that they had to click ""Pick a number, any number"" and decide to submit one with a form like this that asks for just a touch of effort. what's that group like? it'll include casual and regular/committed readers, probably a handful of data professionals or at least people who work with analytics and data professionally, and some of them will have some pretty good reasoning about the numbers they choose too. while a good deal of the rest of them are more like me - just sort of spectators who read a lot and aren't that dumb. a good deal of them are just here for the sports and politics and predictions, and decided to take a casual puzzle on because it sounded at least mildly interesting. some are just here to see if trump's approval rating has gone down meaningfully or some other politics related thing - there's a very small set, in other words, of people who came specifically for the riddler. and there's also probably a set of people who are relentlessly competitive, which is where i fit in. what kind of numbers do they all choose? the more casual readers, particularly the ones just here for glancing at the sports and politics, probably pick something in the 10s or 20s. it'll be the people feeling particullarly risky and brave or aware of their own biases who'll pick something the single digits. zero will be picked by a bunch of people who are slightly having a laugh, so that's out. a lot of people will submit ""one"" just for the sake of it"", so that's out. at least a couple of clever buggers will do 2, 3, etc... except this kind of runs into a more important question. you can identify these sub groups all you want, but how many people in total are actually applying? i just mentally think ""500"" maybe, but now, at this point, i really have no frame of reference. i can reason ""this is a smaller subset of general 538 readers and people who clicked that headline"", but i have no idea how many people that is in the first place. how many people see the 538 homepage every day? dunno. how many people out of that group click into the riddler? dunno. and without knowing that it's... harder to guess whether numbers like ""4,6,8"" etc are taken - you kind of just assume they are out of caution. so... with that direction a bit trickier to figure out, maybe, i think, it's better to think about what kind of numbers people will pick casually first, and then eliminate those - and i think what people will pick casually first, is their favourite numbers (which means, 7 is out). so i just google what people pick. what are the most common favourite numbers? at least that way i can get some more numbers definitely excluded. so i went to here https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/most-popular-numbers-grapes-of-math/ and i didn't see 15 on this list. it feels risky, because it's a multiple of 5 and of 3 too, it feels like it'd stick out in people's minds. at the same time... some part of me thinks ""just go for it roxy"", so i did. " 809,15,"I'm not sure of readership on this column, so I picked a random number 6-20." 810,15,Testing whether the site permits multiple guesses (and thus the problem could be 'solved' by brute force guessing n=n+1 on each successive guess) 811,15,aa 812,15,Math 813,15,maybe that's way too low. 814,16,"Hopefully everyone else picks higher numbers hoping to avoid matches, so my low number will sneak through. " 815,16,No reason :) 816,16,A good feeling. 817,16,Random number sub 20. 818,16,Someone's gotta take it 819,16,"It's non-prime, not too low, but fairly low." 820,16,Seems like a good choice 821,16,"It's small but not too small. I think it is a number that other people won't choose because they will think that other people will choose it. (Of course, if anyone else is thinking like me, then I'm in trouble.)" 822,16,I feel like the sweet 16 doesn't get enough respect 823,16,"I expect that readers of the column will in general think too much about ensuring a unique entry rather than going low and pick numbers that are too high, so I have gone relatively low. But not too low, since others will think like me on that front and go 1-10. I have also picked a number that does not ""feel"" particularly random, like 47, as people are likely to pick that in an attempt to be unique." 824,16,"When asked to pick a random number, there is a known preference for odd numbers, in particular 17. Many people will pick odd numbers, even more so because the question is seeded with consideration of 1. Sixteen is even, and less than 17. 18 would be a good choice if there were two of me. " 825,16,Because I'm feeling it 826,16,Random choice! 827,16,get em all 828,16,"I would be presumptuous, indeed, to present myself against the distinguished gentlemen to whom you have listened if this were but a measuring of ability; but this is not a contest among persons. The humblest citizen in all the land when clad in the armor of a righteous cause is stronger than all the whole hosts of error that they can bring. I come to speak to you in defense of a cause as holy as the cause of liberty—the cause of humanity. When this debate is concluded, a motion will be made to lay upon the table the resolution offered in commendation of the administration and also the resolution in condemnation of the administration. I shall object to bringing this question down to a level of persons. The individual is but an atom; he is born, he acts, he dies; but principles are eternal; and this has been a contest of principle. Never before in the history of this country has there been witnessed such a contest as that through which we have passed. Never before in the history of American politics has a great issue been fought out as this issue has been by the voters themselves. On the 4th of March, 1895, a few Democrats, most of them members of Congress, issued an address to the Democrats of the nation asserting that the money question was the paramount issue of the hour; asserting also the right of a majority of the Democratic Party to control the position of the party on this paramount issue; concluding with the request that all believers in free coinage of silver in the Democratic Party should organize and take charge of and control the policy of the Democratic Party. Three months later, at Memphis, an organization was perfected, and the silver Democrats went forth openly and boldly and courageously proclaiming their belief and declaring that if successful they would crystallize in a platform the declaration which they had made; and then began the conflict with a zeal approaching the zeal which inspired the crusaders who followed Peter the Hermit. Our silver Democrats went forth from victory unto victory, until they are assembled now, not to discuss, not to debate, but to enter up the judgment rendered by the plain people of this country. But in this contest, brother has been arrayed against brother, and father against son. The warmest ties of love and acquaintance and association have been disregarded. Old leaders have been cast aside when they refused to give expression to the sentiments of those whom they would lead, and new leaders have sprung up to give direction to this cause of freedom. Thus has the contest been waged, and we have assembled here under as binding and solemn instructions as were ever fastened upon the representatives of a people. We do not come as individuals. Why, as individuals we might have been glad to compliment the gentleman from New York [Senator Hill], but we knew that the people for whom we speak would never be willing to put him in a position where he could thwart the will of the Democratic Party. I say it was not a question of persons; it was a question of principle; and it is not with gladness, my friends, that we find ourselves brought into conflict with those who are now arrayed on the other side. The gentleman who just preceded me [Governor Russell] spoke of the old state of Massachusetts. Let me assure him that not one person in all this convention entertains the least hostility to the people of the state of Massachusetts. But we stand here representing people who are the equals before the law of the largest cities in the state of Massachusetts. When you come before us and tell us that we shall disturb your business interests, we reply that you have disturbed our business interests by your action. We say to you that you have made too limited in its application the definition of a businessman. The man who is employed for wages is as much a businessman as his employer. The attorney in a country town is as much a businessman as the corporation counsel in a great metropolis. The merchant at the crossroads store is as much a businessman as the merchant of New York. The farmer who goes forth in the morning and toils all day, begins in the spring and toils all summer, and by the application of brain and muscle to the natural resources of this country creates wealth, is as much a businessman as the man who goes upon the Board of Trade and bets upon the price of grain. The miners who go 1,000 feet into the earth or climb 2,000 feet upon the cliffs and bring forth from their hiding places the precious metals to be poured in the channels of trade are as much businessmen as the few financial magnates who in a backroom corner the money of the world. We come to speak for this broader class of businessmen. Ah. my friends, we say not one word against those who live upon the Atlantic Coast; but those hardy pioneers who braved all the dangers of the wilderness, who have made the desert to blossom as the rose—those pioneers away out there, rearing their children near to nature’s heart, where they can mingle their voices with the voices of the birds—out there where they have erected schoolhouses for the education of their children and churches where they praise their Creator, and the cemeteries where sleep the ashes of their dead—are as deserving of the consideration of this party as any people in this country. It is for these that we speak. We do not come as aggressors. Our war is not a war of conquest. We are fighting in the defense of our homes, our families, and posterity. We have petitioned, and our petitions have been scorned. We have entreated, and our entreaties have been disregarded. We have begged, and they have mocked when our calamity came. We beg no longer; we entreat no more; we petition no more. We defy them! The gentleman from Wisconsin has said he fears a Robespierre. My friend, in this land of the free you need fear no tyrant who will spring up from among the people. What we need is an Andrew Jackson to stand as Jackson stood, against the encroachments of aggregated wealth. They tell us that this platform was made to catch votes. We reply to them that changing conditions make new issues; that the principles upon which rest Democracy are as everlasting as the hills; but that they must be applied to new conditions as they arise. Conditions have arisen and we are attempting to meet those conditions. They tell us that the income tax ought not to be brought in here; that is not a new idea. They criticize us for our criticism of the Supreme Court of the United States. My friends, we have made no criticism. We have simply called attention to what you know. If you want criticisms, read the dissenting opinions of the Court. That will give you criticisms. They say we passed an unconstitutional law. I deny it. The income tax was not unconstitutional when it was passed. It was not unconstitutional when it went before the Supreme Court for the first time. It did not become unconstitutional until one judge changed his mind; and we cannot be expected to know when a judge will change his mind. The income tax is a just law. It simply intends to put the burdens of government justly upon the backs of the people. I am in favor of an income tax. When I find a man who is not willing to pay his share of the burden of the government which protects him, I find a man who is unworthy to enjoy the blessings of a government like ours. He says that we are opposing the national bank currency. It is true. If you will read what Thomas Benton said, you will find that he said that in searching history he could find but one parallel to Andrew Jackson. That was Cicero, who destroyed the conspiracies of Cataline and saved Rome. He did for Rome what Jackson did when he destroyed the bank conspiracy and saved America. We say in our platform that we believe that the right to coin money and issue money is a function of government. We believe it. We believe it is a part of sovereignty and can no more with safety be delegated to private individuals than can the power to make penal statutes or levy laws for taxation. Mr. Jefferson, who was once regarded as good Democratic authority, seems to have a different opinion from the gentleman who has addressed us on the part of the minority. Those who are opposed to this proposition tell us that the issue of paper money is a function of the bank and that the government ought to go out of the banking business. I stand with Jefferson rather than with them, and tell them, as he did, that the issue of money is a function of the government and that the banks should go out of the governing business. They complain about the plank which declares against the life tenure in office. They have tried to strain it to mean that which it does not mean. What we oppose in that plank is the life tenure that is being built up in Washington which establishes an office-holding class and excludes from participation in the benefits the humbler members of our society. . . . Let me call attention to two or three great things. The gentleman from New York says that he will propose an amendment providing that this change in our law shall not affect contracts which, according to the present laws, are made payable in gold. But if he means to say that we cannot change our monetary system without protecting those who have loaned money before the change was made, I want to ask him where, in law or in morals, he can find authority for not protecting the debtors when the act of 1873 was passed when he now insists that we must protect the creditor. He says he also wants to amend this platform so as to provide that if we fail to maintain the parity within a year that we will then suspend the coinage of silver. We reply that when we advocate a thing which we believe will be successful we are not compelled to raise a doubt as to our own sincerity by trying to show what we will do if we are wrong. I ask him, if he will apply his logic to us, why he does not apply it to himself. He says that he wants this country to try to secure an international agreement. Why doesn’t he tell us what he is going to do if they fail to secure an international agreement. There is more reason for him to do that than for us to expect to fail to maintain the parity. They have tried for thirty years—thirty years—to secure an international agreement, and those are waiting for it most patiently who don’t want it at all. Now, my friends, let me come to the great paramount issue. If they ask us here why it is we say more on the money question than we say upon the tariff question, I reply that if protection has slain its thousands the gold standard has slain its tens of thousands. If they ask us why we did not embody all these things in our platform which we believe, we reply to them that when we have restored the money of the Constitution, all other necessary reforms will be possible, and that until that is done there is no reform that can be accomplished. Why is it that within three months such a change has come over the sentiments of the country? Three months ago, when it was confidently asserted that those who believed in the gold standard would frame our platforms and nominate our candidates, even the advocates of the gold standard did not think that we could elect a President; but they had good reasons for the suspicion, because there is scarcely a state here today asking for the gold standard that is not within the absolute control of the Republican Party. But note the change. Mr. McKinley was nominated at St. Louis upon a platform that declared for the maintenance of the gold standard until it should be changed into bimetallism by an international agreement. Mr. McKinley was the most popular man among the Republicans ; and everybody three months ago in the Republican Party prophesied his election. How is it today? Why, that man who used to boast that he looked like Napoleon, that man shudders today when he thinks that he was nominated on the anniversary of the Battle of Waterloo. Not only that, but as he listens he can hear with ever increasing distinctness the sound of the waves as they beat upon the lonely shores of St. Helena. Why this change? Ah, my friends. is not the change evident to anyone who will look at the matter? It is because no private character, however pure, no personal popularity, however great, can protect from the avenging wrath of an indignant people the man who will either declare that he is in favor of fastening the gold standard upon this people, or who is willing to surrender the right of self-government and place legislative control in the hands of foreign potentates and powers. . . . We go forth confident that we shall win. Why? Because upon the paramount issue in this campaign there is not a spot of ground upon which the enemy will dare to challenge battle. Why, if they tell us that the gold standard is a good thing, we point to their platform and tell them that their platform pledges the party to get rid of a gold standard and substitute bimetallism. If the gold standard is a good thing, why try to get rid of it? If the gold standard, and I might call your attention to the fact that some of the very people who are in this convention today and who tell you that we ought to declare in favor of international bimetallism and thereby declare that the gold standard is wrong and that the principles of bimetallism are better—these very people four months ago were open and avowed advocates of the gold standard and telling us that we could not legislate two metals together even with all the world. I want to suggest this truth, that if the gold standard is a good thing we ought to declare in favor of its retention and not in favor of abandoning it; and if the gold standard is a bad thing, why should we wait until some other nations are willing to help us to let it go? Here is the line of battle. We care not upon which issue they force the fight. We are prepared to meet them on either issue or on both. If they tell us that the gold standard is the standard of civilization, we reply to them that this, the most enlightened of all nations of the earth, has never declared for a gold standard, and both the parties this year are declaring against it. If the gold standard is the standard of civilization, why, my friends, should we not have it? So if they come to meet us on that, we can present the history of our nation. More than that, we can tell them this, that they will search the pages of history in vain to find a single instance in which the common people of any land ever declared themselves in favor of a gold standard. They can find where the holders of fixed investments have. Mr. Carlisle said in 1878 that this was a struggle between the idle holders of idle capital and the struggling masses who produce the wealth and pay the taxes of the country; and my friends, it is simply a question that we shall decide upon which side shall the Democratic Party fight. Upon the side of the idle holders of idle capital, or upon the side of the struggling masses? That is the question that the party must answer first; and then it must be answered by each individual hereafter. The sympathies of the Democratic Party, as described by the platform, are on the side of the struggling masses, who have ever been the foundation of the Democratic Party. There are two ideas of government. There are those who believe that if you just legislate to make the well-to-do prosperous, that their prosperity will leak through on those below. The Democratic idea has been that if you legislate to make the masses prosperous their prosperity will find its way up and through every class that rests upon it. You come to us and tell us that the great cities are in favor of the gold standard. I tell you that the great cities rest upon these broad and fertile prairies. Burn down your cities and leave our farms, and your cities will spring up again as if by magic. But destroy our farms and the grass will grow in the streets of every city in the country. My friends, we shall declare that this nation is able to legislate for its own people on every question without waiting for the aid or consent of any other nation on earth, and upon that issue we expect to carry every single state in the Union. I shall not slander the fair state of Massachusetts nor the state of New York by saying that when citizens are confronted with the proposition, “Is this nation able to attend to its own business?”—I will not slander either one by saying that the people of those states will declare our helpless impotency as a nation to attend to our own business. It is the issue of 1776 over again. Our ancestors, when but 3 million, had the courage to declare their political independence of every other nation upon earth. Shall we, their descendants, when we have grown to 70 million, declare that we are less independent than our forefathers? No, my friends, it will never be the judgment of this people. Therefore, we care not upon what lines the battle is fought. If they say bimetallism is good but we cannot have it till some nation helps us, we reply that, instead of having a gold standard because England has, we shall restore bimetallism, and then let England have bimetallism because the United States have. If they dare to come out in the open field and defend the gold standard as a good thing, we shall fight them to the uttermost, having behind us the producing masses of the nation and the world. Having behind us the commercial interests and the laboring interests and all the toiling masses, we shall answer their demands for a gold standard by saying to them, you shall not press down upon the brow of labor this crown of thorns. You shall not crucify mankind upon a cross of gold." 829,16,"3 is apparently pretty common for people to pick, but I didn't want to go too high. So I generated a random number between 4 and 30 (inclusive)" 830,16,"Ugh. First I thought something in the 20s (22). Then my thinking was that was a good baseline for what others might think. So I halved it (11) to get to a lower number, which I'll call ""number two."" Thinking some people might do that same step, I then halved the difference between the baseline and number two, and added that to number two, to get to 16. " 831,16,Testing to find out how quickly user fatigue will prevent continued guesses 832,16,aa 833,16,The first non-trivial power of 4! Surely no one else would be so bold. 834,16,It seems too obvious. 835,16,"Watching Bos, KC. End of the 3rd. R+H+E+LOB+Inning" 836,16, People wanted an interesting sounding number or a prime number or something like 167 that feels unique. I predict they shy away from numbers with lots of divisors. Also people will be afraid a very low numbers. 837,16,Cause it's a cool number. 838,16,This is one of those games where the optimal strategy is to pick 1 839,16,2*2*2*2 840,16,"It has a sort of eBay-pouncing vibe to it, looking for the sweet spot between low numbers that many will choose and higher numbers that are rare enough to maybe be unique, but not so high that they fail to give the contest a real run for its ""money.""" 841,16, 842,16,Intuition 843,17,complete guess 844,17,"Kind of a random one, right?" 845,17,Lucky number. High enough that it stands a chance of being unique 846,17,Shot in the dark. 847,17,Something makes me think people are less likely to chose a prime number 848,17,-- 849,17,My best guess as to the lowest number no one else would pick 850,17,I like prime numbers 851,17,"just picked a number " 852,17,Chose a number people dont really think about much 853,17,"Relatively small, positive, and prime number. Figured it would be thought of relatively less than other integers between 0 and 20. " 854,17, 855,17,nobody likes the number 17 856,17,because 18 is to high 857,17,Don't know 858,17,1. 7. 859,17,dumb luck 860,17,Intuition. 861,17,Completely wild guess to be honest 862,17,Seems logical 863,17,Everyone is going to go for 13. 864,17,17 865,17,"Nice low prime number, just a guess though" 866,17,"I wanted a reasonably low number, but higher than most people, but also lower than other people using the same strategy who might put something in the 20s" 867,17,Good a guess as any. 868,17,"If I knew the number of expected submissions, this would be a better guess. I assume around 50% or so (+- 20%) people will choose 1, and then 50% (+- 20%) of the remaining or so will chose 2, and so on. with maybe, idk, 100,000 submissions, log base 2 (100,000) = 16.6 ish. That seems way too low but wahtever." 869,17,16+1=17 870,17,I think the number will be between 17-100. 871,17,Hoping to get lucky? 872,17,It was my jersey number 873,17,"I hesitated, since it has a 3 in it. But I feel like it's not anyone's favorite number (nor least favorite, like 13), isn't a multiple of anyone's favorite number, and is still pretty low. Almost went with 23-but then remembered Michael Jordan." 874,17,Just had to pick a positive integer 875,17,"I did not want to choose any number 1-10, so I randomly chose a number in the next bracket. " 876,17,It was either 17 or 31 877,17,It's prime right 878,17,Pure guess 879,17,Just a guess no real logic behind it 880,17,Seems like a pretty low prime number that might not get picked ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ 881,17,I guessed! 882,17,Just a hunch 883,17,Fermat prime! 884,17,cuz 885,17,who thinks of 17? 886,17,Very low numbers will be said a lot so I don't want to pick those and 17 is my favorite number. 887,17,It's my favorite 888,17,I enjoy the number 889,17,I feel lucky 890,17,get em all 891,17,"I love reading five-thirty-eight and am baffled that most people I mention articles to have never heard of it. I warrant even fewer participate in these. 17 felt high enough to not be used more than once, but low enough to win! That's all." 892,17,Just a guess 893,17,Wild guess. 894,17,¯\_(ツ)_/¯ 895,17,Prime 896,17,Guess 897,17,"I assumed a Pareto distribution with mean 20 (and min value 1) for the responses, and determined that the value such that there was a 95% of numbers being less than that was 17, under the assumption that this was the range in which most numbers would be replicated by participants." 898,17,Blind guess 899,17,17! 900,17,:) 901,17,"Several will pick 1 because they think no one else will due to being too obvious. Perfect squares and their roots are also out because they are common answers to these types of question. So 1,2,3,4,9,16 are out. Numbers over 50 and below 100 will be guessed randomly. I pick 17." 902,17,aa 903,17,Guessed. 904,17,:) 905,17,Wetware fuzzy logic 906,17,"Logically, I believe that all numbers up to approximately 16 will be chosen, but that the majority of guesses will be above approximately 30 (as a result of these people factoring in the number of submissions). Also, 17 is a prime number so..." 907,17,Smallest integer I thought had a chance of being unique. 908,17,"Randomly, or did I?!" 909,17,Doesn't seem like a number anyone else would take. 910,17,guess 911,17,It's a good number that is not to close to 1. 912,17,I have a good feeling about 17. 913,17,It's my fav positive integer 914,17,The yellow pigs told me to pick it. 915,17,Guess 916,17,Prime numbers are not generally chosen 917,17,Guess 918,17,relatively low prime number 919,17,Random guess 920,17,"I assumed most people would choose a number under 15, so I chose 17 in case someone else chose 16." 921,18,"People have a natural preference towards round numbers, but riddlers have a natural preference towards interesting numbers (primes, squares, etc.). This is the lowest uninteresting number I can think of." 922,18,Seems like a good one 923,18,It's low... but not too low. ;-) 924,18,Seems like a nice number. 925,18,Random Guess! 926,18,High enough to avoid the trolls but low enough to win. 927,18,just a guess 928,18,"17 is prime, so I thought some might choose that. Otherwise, just random - I'm probably too low." 929,18,Pure guess 930,18,Pure Guess 931,18,wild guess 932,18,"Birthday, why not" 933,18,No reason 934,18,Beats me. I just picked a number. 935,18,No good reason whatsoever. 936,18,"I had a college professor obsessed with the number 17. I figure everything below 17 is likely to be taken. Some other student of David Kelly is going to pick 17. So, 18 it is." 937,18,??? 938,18,"With no knowledge of what everyone else will submit I assume the distribution will have a low population in the single digits and teens, then rising up across the rest of the double digits, and dropping down again for the triples. Basically the gambit is that some people will guess the single digits trying to sneak in hoping no one else chooses them since they're obvious. My hope is that enough will pick them that they'll get doubled up, but that not enough will do that in the teens, and I'll sneak through." 939,18,Who the heck is going to say 18 940,18,There is no point choosing a single digit number. But there will be people who either don't know this or they think everybody would know this and use it as winning strategy. What you want is a number that is low enough to have a chance to be unique but heigh enough that nobody else uses it. 18 might be that number. 941,18,it's the number i feel like fits in the worst in the 1-20 range 942,18,"Not too high, not too low." 943,18,July 18 is my birthday 944,18,Seemed about right 945,18,get em all 946,18,"I'm making a contrarian guess. I think that most will guess a somewhat high, odd number. I am guessing relatively low and even, though a somewhat oddball one. " 947,18,I think many people will over think this puzzle and choose solutions that are too high or too low 948,18,Is a complete crap-shoot. Seemed about right. 949,18,This one is a guess. 950,18,aa 951,18,Favorite number 952,18,"Small, but not too small, also not a ""human-random"" number" 953,18,It was my soccer jersey number. 954,18,"No logic, or math here. Just a random guess." 955,18,It is 956,18,giving it a shot 957,18,Just because 958,19,"no 3s or 7s (most used random numbers). Not too high, but not too low" 959,19,My birthday is on the 19th:) 960,19,Really? 961,19,Psychic powers 962,19,Just because 963,19,I'm partial to 19 964,19,I just like 19 965,19,"Decided to go with a number low enough that it might win, but high enough that it has a low(er) chance of being duplicated. It may not be enough, but it's worth a shot." 966,19,it seemed like a good number 967,19,My jersey number in hockey. 968,19,Really hoping no one chooses this number. 969,19,Lucky guess! 970,19,Not much thought - just picked a prime number which perhaps aren't as popular in coming to others' minds. 971,19,¯\_(ツ)_/¯ 972,19,19 is the lowest number that cannot be the score of a hand in cribbage. 973,19,Low number which does not match the jersey number of a famous athlete. 974,19,low but unique 975,19,"I am obviously going to lose. But here's what I would do, I would program a robot to submit duplicate entries in ascending order (ie 1,1,2,2,3,3,4,4,5,5,6,6,... ) until 5 seconds before your poll closed (at which point I would have gotten to n,n). And then my last submission would be n+1 and hopefully n+1 wins. I lose if some guy's robot got further along than me. " 976,19,It's my favorite number and it's semi unusual for people to pick 977,19,"Assuming a high number of responses, then there should be enough variation in people's logic to cover the single digits. Then it's a matter of choosing a low number that didn't occur to anyone else. 19 seems likely to be ignored as being the highest in the teens." 978,19,"Low, but not too low. I like primes." 979,19,"Look, someone's got to pick a bit lower." 980,19,Random Man 981,19,It's my favorite number 982,19,It felt right 983,19,"It is the 8th prime number and I thought that in terms of uniqueness and an assumed large-type of sample size of participants that this would put me out far enough from the low number cluster of the sample, but still close enough to the ""lowest"" positive integer. " 984,19,Idk 985,19,Who can say really 986,19,get em all 987,19,"1-10= too easy, 11= specious choice 12= too many Tom Brady fans, 13= unlucky, 14= maybe, but still too low. 15= avoid multiples of 5 at all costs 16= too common in everyday culture, 17= plausible, but false, 18= (see #12, but for manning), 19=juuuuuuust right" 988,19,Hopefully a forgotten number. 989,19,"Just guessed one of the lowest ""high"" numbers that others maybe wouldn't think " 990,19,It's my favorite number and I know no one else will pick it 991,19,"I guessed that all single digit integers will already be chosen, and 19 feels obscure enough out of the 10-20 range that it might get passed over." 992,19,"My intuition suggests that a gamma distribution is a good match for the distribution of guesses. I will assume that on average at least one person other than me will choose x=1. So I will take a distribution with scale parameter 1 (for simplicity) and shape parameter chosen so the Prob(x<=1.5) ~1/1000, where 1000 is my rough estimate for number of other people playing. This shape value is roughly 6.95. I want to choose the first x* such that Prob(x<= x*) ~1/2000, so there is a large probability I will be the only person to take it. This corresponds to x*=19." 993,19,my favorite number :-) 994,19,"Lots of people don't seem to pick primes when picking ""random"" numbers. However, with as many people as read this blog, people are bound to pick the first several lowest spots. I was debating between 17, 19, and 37, so I went with the middle one" 995,19,Not too big. Not too small. 996,19,. 997,19,aa 998,19,"While still very low I think 19 is an ""odd"" number that will be overlooked. " 999,19,"Just a stab in the dark, also my lucky number." 1000,19,Because I feel like other people will pick most of the numbers before 19