Special Elections: special-elections.csv

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This table contains the data behind the story Be Skeptical Of Anyone Who Tells You They Know How Democrats Can Win In November.

special-elections.csv contains data on all elections pitting at least one Democrat against at least one Republican between Jan. 20, 2017, and Mar. 27, 2018, including both state and federal special elections as well as regularly scheduled 2017 elections in New Jersey and Virginia (except for New Jersey General Assembly).

For each geography (district or state) the file contains:

  • Median household income.
  • The percentage of its residents over age 25 who possess a bachelor's degree or higher.
  • The difference between Hillary Clinton's 2016 margin and Barack Obama's 2012 margin.
  • The improvement in the Democratic candidate's margin in the 2017 or 2018 special election over the district's normal partisan lean. (FiveThirtyEight defines "partisan lean" as the average difference between how a constituency voted in the past two presidential elections and how the country voted overall, with 2016 results weighted 75 percent and 2012 results weighted 25 percent.)

Two districts in New Hampshire (Belknap HD-09 and Hillsborough HD-44) did not have Census data available. Florida House District 44 and Louisiana House District 92 were excluded. These were districts where the Democrats dropped out at the last minute but their names remained on the ballot. Iowa House District 22 and Pennsylvania House District 197 were also excluded. In both of these districts, Democrats were not on the ballot but waged write-in campaigns instead.

Ballotpedia was used to compile the list of elections between Jan. 20, 2017 and March 27, 2018. Income and education data comes from the American Community Survey's five-year estimates for 2012–2016. Presidential results by district were collected from Daily Kos Elections (Florida results are from Matthew Isbell).

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette

200 rows

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Suggested facets: State

Link rowid ▼ Date State Race Median Household Income % Bachelor's Degree or Higher Clinton Margin Improvement Over Obama 2017-2018 Dem Margin Improvement Over Partisan Lean
1 1 3/27/18 Alabama HD-21 $65,548 42.10% 6% 24%
2 2 3/13/18 Pennsylvania 18th CD $62,283 35.10% -3% 22%
3 3 3/13/18 Tennessee SD-14 $48,252 22.10% -8% 1%
4 4 3/6/18 Oklahoma HD-51 $57,202 18.10% -8% 21%
5 5 2/27/18 Kentucky HD-89 $37,858 16.10% -5% 29%
6 6 2/27/18 New Hampshire Belknap HD-03 $48,893 25.10% -13% 19%
7 7 2/27/18 Connecticut HD-120 $83,869 37.00% -4% 1%
8 8 2/20/18 Kentucky HD-49 $57,177 13.60% -16% 84%
9 9 2/17/18 Louisiana HD-86 $45,179 22.40% -2% -24%
10 10 2/13/18 Oklahoma SD-27 $53,397 21.20% -2% 39%
11 11 2/13/18 Florida HD-72 $52,566 35.30% -1% 14%
12 12 2/13/18 Georgia HD-175 $45,802 24.60% 9% -23%
13 13 2/12/18 Minnesota SD-54 $71,210 28.80% -9% 5%
14 14 2/12/18 Minnesota HD-23B $58,650 21.10% -24% 4%
15 15 2/6/18 Missouri HD-144 $35,910 11.00% -33% 48%
16 16 2/6/18 Missouri HD-97 $55,148 23.70% -15% 30%
17 17 2/6/18 Missouri HD-129 $38,031 13.00% -21% 23%
18 18 2/6/18 Missouri HD-39 $48,493 15.20% -22% 15%
19 19 1/23/18 Pennsylvania HD-35 $36,348 17.90% -10% 29%
20 20 1/16/18 Wisconsin SD-10 $60,467 29.20% -11% 27%
21 21 1/16/18 Wisconsin AD-58 $63,758 29.00% -2% 27%
22 22 1/16/18 Iowa HD-06 $56,073 27.40% -20% 16%
23 23 1/16/18 South Carolina HD-99 $83,516 48.00% 11% 15%
24 24 1/9/18 Georgia HD-111 $63,465 28.70% 12% -11%
25 25 1/9/18 Georgia SD-17 $60,801 24.90% 6% -11%
26 26 12/19/17 Tennessee SD-17 $51,967 22.00% -9% 46%
27 27 12/19/17 Florida HD-58 $46,518 22.20% -5% -9%
28 28 12/12/17 Alabama U.S. Senate $44,758 24.00% -6% 31%
29 29 12/12/17 Iowa SD-03 $57,432 23.80% -19% 29%
30 30 12/5/17 Pennsylvania HD-133 $53,626 24.20% -9% 28%
31 31 12/5/17 Massachusetts Worcester & Middlesex SD $63,889 30.00% 3% -10%
32 32 11/18/17 Louisiana Treasurer $45,652 23.00% -2% 10%
33 33 11/14/17 Oklahoma SD-37 $50,874 23.60% -2% 42%
34 34 11/14/17 Oklahoma SD-45 $58,725 23.20% 1% 29%
35 35 11/14/17 Oklahoma HD-76 $68,493 33.10% 7% 2%
36 36 11/7/17 New Jersey SD-01 $54,836 22.40% -15% 39%
37 37 11/7/17 Georgia HD-119 $46,962 50.70% 12% 26%
38 38 11/7/17 Missouri HD-151 $38,655 13.20% -20% 23%
39 39 11/7/17 South Carolina HD-113 $30,791 18.50% -8% 23%
40 40 11/7/17 New Jersey SD-33 $67,972 47.40% 3% 22%
41 41 11/7/17 New Jersey SD-32 $59,597 29.30% -8% 20%
42 42 11/7/17 New Jersey SD-03 $67,035 24.10% -15% 20%
43 43 11/7/17 Michigan HD-109 $44,086 25.80% -12% 18%
44 44 11/7/17 New Jersey SD-27 $117,145 61.60% 14% 17%
45 45 11/7/17 New Jersey SD-36 $60,408 31.70% -11% 15%
46 46 11/7/17 Missouri SD-08 $70,348 35.40% -1% 15%
47 47 11/7/17 Massachusetts 1st Berkshire HD $50,118 30.30% -18% 14%
48 48 11/7/17 Georgia HD-117 $47,073 40.40% 7% 14%
49 49 11/7/17 New Hampshire Sullivan HD-01 $83,862 48.70% 2% 13%
50 50 11/7/17 New Jersey SD-18 $90,957 50.90% -2% 13%
51 51 11/7/17 New Jersey SD-31 $57,060 39.20% -7% 12%
52 52 11/7/17 New Jersey SD-37 $79,222 50.40% 5% 12%
53 53 11/7/17 New Jersey SD-20 $52,017 19.00% -4% 12%
54 54 11/7/17 New Jersey SD-30 $70,988 39.20% -5% 12%
55 55 11/7/17 New Hampshire Hillsborough HD-15 $67,019 30.90% -7% 12%
56 56 11/7/17 New Jersey SD-34 $55,929 32.40% -3% 10%
57 57 11/7/17 Virginia HD-20 $49,898 28.30% -5% 10%
58 58 11/7/17 New Jersey SD-06 $77,040 41.70% 3% 10%
59 59 11/7/17 Virginia HD-01 $36,116 13.80% -16% 9%
60 60 11/7/17 Virginia HD-02 $96,197 38.10% 1% 9%
61 61 11/7/17 Virginia HD-12 $41,689 43.00% -1% 8%
62 62 11/7/17 New Jersey SD-29 $37,292 15.90% -7% 8%
63 63 11/7/17 Virginia HD-34 $177,551 74.90% 21% 8%
64 64 11/7/17 Virginia HD-86 $119,947 57.00% 14% 8%
65 65 11/7/17 Virginia HD-25 $63,358 37.60% 2% 8%
66 66 11/7/17 New Jersey SD-38 $89,950 43.30% -1% 7%
67 67 11/7/17 Virginia HD-03 $36,200 12.90% -16% 7%
68 68 11/7/17 New Jersey SD-07 $79,876 37.10% -2% 7%
69 69 11/7/17 New Jersey SD-24 $86,225 34.60% -8% 7%
70 70 11/7/17 Georgia HD-26 $76,259 38.50% 10% 7%
71 71 11/7/17 Virginia HD-33 $103,947 44.60% 1% 6%
72 72 11/7/17 Virginia Governor $66,149 36.90% 1% 6%
73 73 11/7/17 Virginia HD-38 $86,205 42.80% 12% 6%
74 74 11/7/17 Virginia HD-72 $76,105 51.00% 14% 6%
75 75 11/7/17 Virginia HD-27 $72,302 37.80% 6% 6%
76 76 11/7/17 Virginia HD-42 $133,265 63.00% 17% 6%
77 77 11/7/17 Virginia HD-17 $54,182 29.60% -4% 5%
78 78 11/7/17 New Jersey SD-13 $101,257 47.10% -3% 5%
79 79 11/7/17 Virginia HD-93 $63,350 40.70% 5% 5%
80 80 11/7/17 Virginia HD-85 $65,289 29.50% 0% 5%
81 81 11/7/17 Virginia HD-62 $63,752 23.80% 1% 4%
82 82 11/7/17 New Jersey SD-10 $62,284 28.20% -17% 4%
83 83 11/7/17 Virginia Attorney General $66,149 36.90% 1% 4%
84 84 11/7/17 Virginia HD-49 $78,031 54.60% 13% 4%
85 85 11/7/17 New Jersey SD-05 $51,885 21.80% -11% 4%
86 86 11/7/17 New Jersey SD-22 $72,130 30.50% -4% 4%
87 87 11/7/17 Virginia HD-81 $70,250 30.80% -5% 4%
88 88 11/7/17 Virginia HD-87 $124,732 58.90% 12% 4%
89 89 11/7/17 Virginia Lt. Governor $66,149 36.90% 1% 3%
90 90 11/7/17 Virginia HD-28 $81,002 35.40% -1% 3%
91 91 11/7/17 Virginia HD-21 $76,270 32.20% -1% 3%
92 92 11/7/17 Virginia HD-56 $80,327 41.70% 6% 3%
93 93 11/7/17 New Jersey SD-35 $42,153 15.80% -10% 3%
94 94 11/7/17 Virginia HD-31 $116,586 39.90% 3% 3%
95 95 11/7/17 New Jersey SD-14 $78,731 41.00% -4% 3%
96 96 11/7/17 Utah 3rd CD $66,478 39.30% 35% 3%
97 97 11/7/17 Maine HD-56 $54,207 17.00% -25% 3%
98 98 11/7/17 Virginia HD-55 $74,997 31.20% -2% 3%
99 99 11/7/17 Virginia HD-10 $109,942 51.00% 10% 3%
100 100 11/7/17 Virginia HD-32 $125,263 63.80% 15% 3%

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CREATE TABLE "special-elections/special-elections" (
"Date" TEXT,
  "State" TEXT,
  "Race" TEXT,
  "Median Household Income" TEXT,
  "% Bachelor's Degree or Higher" TEXT,
  "Clinton Margin Improvement Over Obama" TEXT,
  "2017-2018 Dem Margin Improvement Over Partisan Lean" TEXT
);