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2015 Women's World Cup Tournament Predictions: wwc-matches-20150606-230045.csv

FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2015 World Cup, including each team's WSPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file names. All times are in EDT.

Overall forecasts

Overall forecasts are stored in files named like wwc-forecast-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv.

Header Definition
wspi Women's Soccer Power Index
wspi_offense Women's Soccer Power Index offensive rating
wspi_defense Women's Soccer Power Index defensive rating
group_first Chance of coming in first place in the group stage
group_second Chance of coming in second place in the group stage
group_third_advance Chance of coming in third place in the group stage and advancing to the knockout stage
group_third_no_advance Chance of coming in third place in the group stage but not advancing to the knockout stage
group_fourth Chance of coming in fourth place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: These probabilities are based on 20,000 simulations. A win probability of 0.0 doesn't necessarily mean that a team has a zero percent chance of winning the tournament -- it means that the team did not win the tournament in any of the 20,000 simulations.

Match probabilities

Individual match probabilities are stored in files named like wwc-matches-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv.

Header Definition
team1_win The probability that team1 will beat team2
team2_win The probability that team2 will beat team1
tie The probability the game will end in a tie

For the Women's World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of WSPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub

36 rows sorted by team2_win

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Suggested facets: date, group, team1, team2

Link rowid date group team1 team2 team1_win team2_win ▼ tie
1 2015-06-06 A Canada China 1.0 0.0 0.0
4 2015-06-07 B Germany Ivory Coast 0.93301104 0.00563632 0.06135263
3 2015-06-07 B Norway Thailand 0.85212028 0.03483764 0.11304208
18 2015-06-12 C Switzerland Ecuador 0.80654306 0.05658537 0.13687158
21 2015-06-13 F France Colombia 0.79859964 0.06066033 0.14074003
20 2015-06-12 C Japan Cameroon 0.78504172 0.06779973 0.14715855
6 2015-06-08 C Cameroon Ecuador 0.71138247 0.110418 0.17819953
13 2015-06-11 B Germany Norway 0.69930485 0.11799508 0.18270007
34 2015-06-17 F England Colombia 0.69707911 0.11940899 0.1835119
8 2015-06-08 C Japan Switzerland 0.6866481 0.12610767 0.18724423
16 2015-06-11 A Canada New Zealand 0.6850875 0.12712009 0.18779241
7 2015-06-08 D USA Australia 0.68272745 0.12865619 0.18861636
10 2015-06-09 E Spain Costa Rica 0.66242577 0.14211951 0.19545472
12 2015-06-09 E Brazil South Korea 0.65292535 0.14857259 0.19850206
24 2015-06-13 E South Korea Costa Rica 0.65021979 0.15042807 0.19935215
22 2015-06-13 E Brazil Spain 0.64063554 0.15706411 0.20230034
23 2015-06-13 F England Mexico 0.62684262 0.16678684 0.20637054
5 2015-06-08 D Sweden Nigeria 0.58380435 0.19843299 0.21776266
19 2015-06-12 D USA Sweden 0.57566743 0.20463937 0.21969321
15 2015-06-11 B Ivory Coast Thailand 0.53821584 0.23412951 0.22765464
9 2015-06-09 F France England 0.49465646 0.27037283 0.23497071
30 2015-06-16 C Switzerland Cameroon 0.48906328 0.27518142 0.23575529
17 2015-06-12 D Australia Nigeria 0.47312301 0.28908308 0.23779391
28 2015-06-15 A China New Zealand 0.45541734 0.30487209 0.23971057
36 2015-06-17 E South Korea Spain 0.36596894 0.39056814 0.24346291
14 2015-06-11 A China Netherlands 0.34344852 0.41382607 0.24272542
11 2015-06-09 F Colombia Mexico 0.30903167 0.45082096 0.24014736
32 2015-06-16 D Australia Sweden 0.27670639 0.48729815 0.23599547
27 2015-06-15 A Netherlands Canada 0.20634981 0.57344122 0.22020896
26 2015-06-15 B Ivory Coast Norway 0.10344541 0.72273198 0.17382261
33 2015-06-17 F Mexico France 0.09516041 0.73653551 0.16830408
31 2015-06-16 D Nigeria USA 0.07686918 0.7684055 0.15472532
35 2015-06-17 E Costa Rica Brazil 0.02390125 0.87784413 0.09825462
29 2015-06-16 C Ecuador Japan 0.00473349 0.94334947 0.05191704
25 2015-06-15 B Thailand Germany 0.00406677 0.95103556 0.04489768
2 2015-06-06 A New Zealand Netherlands 0.0 1.0 0.0

Advanced export

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CREATE TABLE "womens-world-cup-predictions/wwc-matches-20150606-230045" (
"date" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "team1" TEXT,
  "team2" TEXT,
  "team1_win" REAL,
  "team2_win" REAL,
  "tie" REAL
)
Powered by Datasette · Query took 835.735ms · Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub