FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2015 World Cup, including each team's WSPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file names. All times are in EDT.

Overall forecasts

Overall forecasts are stored in files named like wwc-forecast-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv.

Header Definition
wspi Women's Soccer Power Index
wspi_offense Women's Soccer Power Index offensive rating
wspi_defense Women's Soccer Power Index defensive rating
group_first Chance of coming in first place in the group stage
group_second Chance of coming in second place in the group stage
group_third_advance Chance of coming in third place in the group stage and advancing to the knockout stage
group_third_no_advance Chance of coming in third place in the group stage but not advancing to the knockout stage
group_fourth Chance of coming in fourth place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: These probabilities are based on 20,000 simulations. A win probability of 0.0 doesn't necessarily mean that a team has a zero percent chance of winning the tournament -- it means that the team did not win the tournament in any of the 20,000 simulations.

Match probabilities

Individual match probabilities are stored in files named like wwc-matches-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv.

Header Definition
team1_win The probability that team1 will beat team2
team2_win The probability that team2 will beat team1
tie The probability the game will end in a tie

For the Women's World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of WSPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette

36 rows sorted by group descending

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Suggested facets: date, group, team1, team2, date (date)

Link rowid date group ▲ team1 team2 team1_win team2_win tie
9 2015-06-09 F France England 0.49471733 0.27032069 0.23496198
11 2015-06-09 F Colombia Mexico 0.30903152 0.45082113 0.24014735
21 2015-06-13 F France Colombia 0.79871394 0.06060112 0.14068494
23 2015-06-13 F England Mexico 0.62692345 0.16672927 0.20634728
33 2015-06-17 F Mexico France 0.09508556 0.73666188 0.16825255
34 2015-06-17 F England Colombia 0.69715576 0.1193602 0.18348404
10 2015-06-09 E Spain Costa Rica 0.6625205 0.14205565 0.19542385
12 2015-06-09 E Brazil South Korea 0.65353454 0.14815589 0.19830957
22 2015-06-13 E Brazil Spain 0.64073986 0.15699135 0.20226878
24 2015-06-13 E South Korea Costa Rica 0.64980846 0.15071084 0.1994807
35 2015-06-17 E Costa Rica Brazil 0.02384726 0.87797762 0.09817513
36 2015-06-17 E South Korea Spain 0.36546493 0.39108081 0.24345426
5 2015-06-08 D Sweden Nigeria 0.58603529 0.19674381 0.21722091
7 2015-06-08 D USA Australia 0.68198565 0.12914026 0.18887409
17 2015-06-12 D Australia Nigeria 0.47592165 0.28662106 0.23745729
19 2015-06-12 D USA Sweden 0.57542022 0.20482904 0.21975074
31 2015-06-16 D Nigeria USA 0.07594022 0.77008172 0.15397806
32 2015-06-16 D Australia Sweden 0.27718024 0.4867505 0.23606926
6 2015-06-08 C Cameroon Ecuador 0.71037766 0.11104222 0.17858012
8 2015-06-08 C Japan Switzerland 0.68772696 0.12540932 0.18686372
18 2015-06-12 C Switzerland Ecuador 0.80665208 0.05653 0.13681792
20 2015-06-12 C Japan Cameroon 0.78700092 0.06675389 0.14624519
29 2015-06-16 C Ecuador Japan 0.00472105 0.94349243 0.05178653
30 2015-06-16 C Switzerland Cameroon 0.49031461 0.27410252 0.23558287
3 2015-06-07 B Norway Thailand 1.0 0.0 0.0
4 2015-06-07 B Germany Ivory Coast 1.0 0.0 0.0
13 2015-06-11 B Germany Norway 0.71701152 0.1069418 0.17604668
15 2015-06-11 B Ivory Coast Thailand 0.48906299 0.27518168 0.23575534
25 2015-06-15 B Thailand Germany 0.00377093 0.95446203 0.04176704
26 2015-06-15 B Ivory Coast Norway 0.07028529 0.78042051 0.1492942
1 2015-06-06 A Canada China 1.0 0.0 0.0
2 2015-06-06 A New Zealand Netherlands 0.0 1.0 0.0
14 2015-06-11 A China Netherlands 0.34258537 0.41473201 0.24268262
16 2015-06-11 A Canada New Zealand 0.6850745 0.12712854 0.18779696
27 2015-06-15 A Netherlands Canada 0.20662596 0.57308246 0.22029158
28 2015-06-15 A China New Zealand 0.45484272 0.30539072 0.23976656

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CREATE TABLE "womens-world-cup-predictions/wwc-matches-20150607-180420" (
"date" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "team1" TEXT,
  "team2" TEXT,
  "team1_win" REAL,
  "team2_win" REAL,
  "tie" REAL
);