FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2015 World Cup, including each team's WSPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file names. All times are in EDT.

Overall forecasts

Overall forecasts are stored in files named like wwc-forecast-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv.

Header Definition
wspi Women's Soccer Power Index
wspi_offense Women's Soccer Power Index offensive rating
wspi_defense Women's Soccer Power Index defensive rating
group_first Chance of coming in first place in the group stage
group_second Chance of coming in second place in the group stage
group_third_advance Chance of coming in third place in the group stage and advancing to the knockout stage
group_third_no_advance Chance of coming in third place in the group stage but not advancing to the knockout stage
group_fourth Chance of coming in fourth place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: These probabilities are based on 20,000 simulations. A win probability of 0.0 doesn't necessarily mean that a team has a zero percent chance of winning the tournament -- it means that the team did not win the tournament in any of the 20,000 simulations.

Match probabilities

Individual match probabilities are stored in files named like wwc-matches-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv.

Header Definition
team1_win The probability that team1 will beat team2
team2_win The probability that team2 will beat team1
tie The probability the game will end in a tie

For the Women's World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of WSPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette

36 rows sorted by group

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Suggested facets: date, group, team1, team2, team2_win, tie, date (date)

Link rowid date group ▼ team1 team2 team1_win team2_win tie
1 2015-06-06 A Canada China 1.0 0.0 0.0
2 2015-06-06 A New Zealand Netherlands 0.0 1.0 0.0
14 2015-06-11 A China Netherlands 1.0 0.0 0.0
16 2015-06-11 A Canada New Zealand 0.0 0.0 1.0
27 2015-06-15 A Netherlands Canada 0.20891876 0.57011064 0.2209706
28 2015-06-15 A China New Zealand 0.45522142 0.30504887 0.23972971
3 2015-06-07 B Norway Thailand 1.0 0.0 0.0
4 2015-06-07 B Germany Ivory Coast 1.0 0.0 0.0
13 2015-06-11 B Germany Norway 0.0 0.0 1.0
15 2015-06-11 B Ivory Coast Thailand 0.0 1.0 0.0
25 2015-06-15 B Thailand Germany 0.0040058 0.95174085 0.04425336
26 2015-06-15 B Ivory Coast Norway 0.05328444 0.81309724 0.13361832
6 2015-06-08 C Cameroon Ecuador 1.0 0.0 0.0
8 2015-06-08 C Japan Switzerland 1.0 0.0 0.0
18 2015-06-12 C Switzerland Ecuador 0.86475503 0.02933638 0.10590859
20 2015-06-12 C Japan Cameroon 0.75514225 0.08433734 0.16052041
29 2015-06-16 C Ecuador Japan 0.0040292 0.95147013 0.04450068
30 2015-06-16 C Switzerland Cameroon 0.45343703 0.30666112 0.23990186
5 2015-06-08 D Sweden Nigeria 0.0 0.0 1.0
7 2015-06-08 D USA Australia 1.0 0.0 0.0
17 2015-06-12 D Australia Nigeria 1.0 0.0 0.0
19 2015-06-12 D USA Sweden 0.58171041 0.20002332 0.21826627
31 2015-06-16 D Nigeria USA 0.07720836 0.767795 0.15499665
32 2015-06-16 D Australia Sweden 0.29111144 0.47082508 0.23806348
10 2015-06-09 E Spain Costa Rica 0.0 0.0 1.0
12 2015-06-09 E Brazil South Korea 1.0 0.0 0.0
22 2015-06-13 E Brazil Spain 0.65995175 0.14379062 0.19625764
24 2015-06-13 E South Korea Costa Rica 0.62151556 0.17059638 0.20788806
35 2015-06-17 E Costa Rica Brazil 0.0281636 0.86752419 0.10431221
36 2015-06-17 E South Korea Spain 0.37195807 0.38450313 0.2435388
9 2015-06-09 F France England 1.0 0.0 0.0
11 2015-06-09 F Colombia Mexico 0.0 0.0 1.0
21 2015-06-13 F France Colombia 0.79899091 0.06045772 0.14055137
23 2015-06-13 F England Mexico 0.62045009 0.17136197 0.20818794
33 2015-06-17 F Mexico France 0.09271859 0.74067411 0.16660729
34 2015-06-17 F England Colombia 0.68709967 0.12581521 0.18708512

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CREATE TABLE "womens-world-cup-predictions/wwc-matches-20150612-185329" (
"date" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "team1" TEXT,
  "team2" TEXT,
  "team1_win" REAL,
  "team2_win" REAL,
  "tie" REAL
);