2015 Women's World Cup Tournament Predictions: wwc-matches-20150612-185329.csv

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FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2015 World Cup, including each team's WSPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file names. All times are in EDT.

Overall forecasts

Overall forecasts are stored in files named like wwc-forecast-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv.

Header Definition
wspi Women's Soccer Power Index
wspi_offense Women's Soccer Power Index offensive rating
wspi_defense Women's Soccer Power Index defensive rating
group_first Chance of coming in first place in the group stage
group_second Chance of coming in second place in the group stage
group_third_advance Chance of coming in third place in the group stage and advancing to the knockout stage
group_third_no_advance Chance of coming in third place in the group stage but not advancing to the knockout stage
group_fourth Chance of coming in fourth place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: These probabilities are based on 20,000 simulations. A win probability of 0.0 doesn't necessarily mean that a team has a zero percent chance of winning the tournament -- it means that the team did not win the tournament in any of the 20,000 simulations.

Match probabilities

Individual match probabilities are stored in files named like wwc-matches-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv.

Header Definition
team1_win The probability that team1 will beat team2
team2_win The probability that team2 will beat team1
tie The probability the game will end in a tie

For the Women's World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of WSPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette

36 rows sorted by team2

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Suggested facets: date, group, team1, team2, team1_win, team2_win, tie, date (date)

Link rowid date group team1 team2 ▼ team1_win team2_win tie
7 7 2015-06-08 D USA Australia 1.0 0.0 0.0
35 35 2015-06-17 E Costa Rica Brazil 0.0281636 0.86752419 0.10431221
20 20 2015-06-12 C Japan Cameroon 0.75514225 0.08433734 0.16052041
30 30 2015-06-16 C Switzerland Cameroon 0.45343703 0.30666112 0.23990186
27 27 2015-06-15 A Netherlands Canada 0.20891876 0.57011064 0.2209706
1 1 2015-06-06 A Canada China 1.0 0.0 0.0
21 21 2015-06-13 F France Colombia 0.79899091 0.06045772 0.14055137
34 34 2015-06-17 F England Colombia 0.68709967 0.12581521 0.18708512
10 10 2015-06-09 E Spain Costa Rica 0.0 0.0 1.0
24 24 2015-06-13 E South Korea Costa Rica 0.62151556 0.17059638 0.20788806
6 6 2015-06-08 C Cameroon Ecuador 1.0 0.0 0.0
18 18 2015-06-12 C Switzerland Ecuador 0.86475503 0.02933638 0.10590859
9 9 2015-06-09 F France England 1.0 0.0 0.0
33 33 2015-06-17 F Mexico France 0.09271859 0.74067411 0.16660729
25 25 2015-06-15 B Thailand Germany 0.0040058 0.95174085 0.04425336
4 4 2015-06-07 B Germany Ivory Coast 1.0 0.0 0.0
29 29 2015-06-16 C Ecuador Japan 0.0040292 0.95147013 0.04450068
11 11 2015-06-09 F Colombia Mexico 0.0 0.0 1.0
23 23 2015-06-13 F England Mexico 0.62045009 0.17136197 0.20818794
2 2 2015-06-06 A New Zealand Netherlands 0.0 1.0 0.0
14 14 2015-06-11 A China Netherlands 1.0 0.0 0.0
16 16 2015-06-11 A Canada New Zealand 0.0 0.0 1.0
28 28 2015-06-15 A China New Zealand 0.45522142 0.30504887 0.23972971
5 5 2015-06-08 D Sweden Nigeria 0.0 0.0 1.0
17 17 2015-06-12 D Australia Nigeria 1.0 0.0 0.0
13 13 2015-06-11 B Germany Norway 0.0 0.0 1.0
26 26 2015-06-15 B Ivory Coast Norway 0.05328444 0.81309724 0.13361832
12 12 2015-06-09 E Brazil South Korea 1.0 0.0 0.0
22 22 2015-06-13 E Brazil Spain 0.65995175 0.14379062 0.19625764
36 36 2015-06-17 E South Korea Spain 0.37195807 0.38450313 0.2435388
19 19 2015-06-12 D USA Sweden 0.58171041 0.20002332 0.21826627
32 32 2015-06-16 D Australia Sweden 0.29111144 0.47082508 0.23806348
8 8 2015-06-08 C Japan Switzerland 1.0 0.0 0.0
3 3 2015-06-07 B Norway Thailand 1.0 0.0 0.0
15 15 2015-06-11 B Ivory Coast Thailand 0.0 1.0 0.0
31 31 2015-06-16 D Nigeria USA 0.07720836 0.767795 0.15499665

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CREATE TABLE "womens-world-cup-predictions/wwc-matches-20150612-185329" (
"date" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "team1" TEXT,
  "team2" TEXT,
  "team1_win" REAL,
  "team2_win" REAL,
  "tie" REAL
);