FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2015 World Cup, including each team's WSPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file names. All times are in EDT.

Overall forecasts

Overall forecasts are stored in files named like wwc-forecast-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv.

Header Definition
wspi Women's Soccer Power Index
wspi_offense Women's Soccer Power Index offensive rating
wspi_defense Women's Soccer Power Index defensive rating
group_first Chance of coming in first place in the group stage
group_second Chance of coming in second place in the group stage
group_third_advance Chance of coming in third place in the group stage and advancing to the knockout stage
group_third_no_advance Chance of coming in third place in the group stage but not advancing to the knockout stage
group_fourth Chance of coming in fourth place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: These probabilities are based on 20,000 simulations. A win probability of 0.0 doesn't necessarily mean that a team has a zero percent chance of winning the tournament -- it means that the team did not win the tournament in any of the 20,000 simulations.

Match probabilities

Individual match probabilities are stored in files named like wwc-matches-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv.

Header Definition
team1_win The probability that team1 will beat team2
team2_win The probability that team2 will beat team1
tie The probability the game will end in a tie

For the Women's World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of WSPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette

36 rows sorted by team1 descending

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Suggested facets: date, group, team1, team2, team1_win, team2_win, tie, date (date)

Link rowid date group team1 ▲ team2 team1_win team2_win tie
7 2015-06-08 D USA Australia 1.0 0.0 0.0
19 2015-06-12 D USA Sweden 0.0 0.0 1.0
25 2015-06-15 B Thailand Germany 0.0 1.0 0.0
18 2015-06-12 C Switzerland Ecuador 1.0 0.0 0.0
30 2015-06-16 C Switzerland Cameroon 0.0 1.0 0.0
5 2015-06-08 D Sweden Nigeria 0.0 0.0 1.0
10 2015-06-09 E Spain Costa Rica 0.0 0.0 1.0
24 2015-06-13 E South Korea Costa Rica 0.0 0.0 1.0
36 2015-06-17 E South Korea Spain 0.36273255 0.39386627 0.24340118
3 2015-06-07 B Norway Thailand 1.0 0.0 0.0
31 2015-06-16 D Nigeria USA 0.0 1.0 0.0
2 2015-06-06 A New Zealand Netherlands 0.0 1.0 0.0
27 2015-06-15 A Netherlands Canada 0.0 0.0 1.0
33 2015-06-17 F Mexico France 0.0 1.0 0.0
8 2015-06-08 C Japan Switzerland 1.0 0.0 0.0
20 2015-06-12 C Japan Cameroon 1.0 0.0 0.0
15 2015-06-11 B Ivory Coast Thailand 0.0 1.0 0.0
26 2015-06-15 B Ivory Coast Norway 0.0 1.0 0.0
4 2015-06-07 B Germany Ivory Coast 1.0 0.0 0.0
13 2015-06-11 B Germany Norway 0.0 0.0 1.0
9 2015-06-09 F France England 1.0 0.0 0.0
21 2015-06-13 F France Colombia 0.0 1.0 0.0
23 2015-06-13 F England Mexico 1.0 0.0 0.0
34 2015-06-17 F England Colombia 1.0 0.0 0.0
29 2015-06-16 C Ecuador Japan 0.0 1.0 0.0
35 2015-06-17 E Costa Rica Brazil 0.034511 0.85285526 0.11263374
11 2015-06-09 F Colombia Mexico 0.0 0.0 1.0
14 2015-06-11 A China Netherlands 1.0 0.0 0.0
28 2015-06-15 A China New Zealand 0.0 0.0 1.0
1 2015-06-06 A Canada China 1.0 0.0 0.0
16 2015-06-11 A Canada New Zealand 0.0 0.0 1.0
6 2015-06-08 C Cameroon Ecuador 1.0 0.0 0.0
12 2015-06-09 E Brazil South Korea 1.0 0.0 0.0
22 2015-06-13 E Brazil Spain 1.0 0.0 0.0
17 2015-06-12 D Australia Nigeria 1.0 0.0 0.0
32 2015-06-16 D Australia Sweden 0.0 0.0 1.0

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CREATE TABLE "womens-world-cup-predictions/wwc-matches-20150617-175941" (
"date" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "team1" TEXT,
  "team2" TEXT,
  "team1_win" REAL,
  "team2_win" REAL,
  "tie" REAL
);