FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2015 World Cup, including each team's WSPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file names. All times are in EDT.
Overall forecasts
Overall forecasts are stored in files named like wwc-forecast-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv.
Header
Definition
wspi
Women's Soccer Power Index
wspi_offense
Women's Soccer Power Index offensive rating
wspi_defense
Women's Soccer Power Index defensive rating
group_first
Chance of coming in first place in the group stage
group_second
Chance of coming in second place in the group stage
group_third_advance
Chance of coming in third place in the group stage and advancing to the knockout stage
group_third_no_advance
Chance of coming in third place in the group stage but not advancing to the knockout stage
group_fourth
Chance of coming in fourth place in the group stage
sixteen
Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter
Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi
Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup
Chance of making it to the final game
win
Chance of winning the whole thing
Note: These probabilities are based on 20,000 simulations. A win probability of 0.0 doesn't necessarily mean that a team has a zero percent chance of winning the tournament -- it means that the team did not win the tournament in any of the 20,000 simulations.
Match probabilities
Individual match probabilities are stored in files named like wwc-matches-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv.
Header
Definition
team1_win
The probability that team1 will beat team2
team2_win
The probability that team2 will beat team1
tie
The probability the game will end in a tie
For the Women's World Cup predictions interactive, click here.