2015 Women's World Cup Tournament Predictions: wwc-matches-20150621-213134.csv

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FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2015 World Cup, including each team's WSPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file names. All times are in EDT.

Overall forecasts

Overall forecasts are stored in files named like wwc-forecast-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv.

Header Definition
wspi Women's Soccer Power Index
wspi_offense Women's Soccer Power Index offensive rating
wspi_defense Women's Soccer Power Index defensive rating
group_first Chance of coming in first place in the group stage
group_second Chance of coming in second place in the group stage
group_third_advance Chance of coming in third place in the group stage and advancing to the knockout stage
group_third_no_advance Chance of coming in third place in the group stage but not advancing to the knockout stage
group_fourth Chance of coming in fourth place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: These probabilities are based on 20,000 simulations. A win probability of 0.0 doesn't necessarily mean that a team has a zero percent chance of winning the tournament -- it means that the team did not win the tournament in any of the 20,000 simulations.

Match probabilities

Individual match probabilities are stored in files named like wwc-matches-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv.

Header Definition
team1_win The probability that team1 will beat team2
team2_win The probability that team2 will beat team1
tie The probability the game will end in a tie

For the Women's World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of WSPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette

45 rows sorted by tie

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Suggested facets: date, group, team1, team1_win, team2_win, tie, date (date)

Link rowid date group team1 team2 team1_win team2_win tie ▼
1 1 2015-06-06 A Canada China 1.0 0.0 0
2 2 2015-06-06 A New Zealand Netherlands 0.0 1.0 0
3 3 2015-06-07 B Norway Thailand 1.0 0.0 0
4 4 2015-06-07 B Germany Ivory Coast 1.0 0.0 0
6 6 2015-06-08 C Cameroon Ecuador 1.0 0.0 0
7 7 2015-06-08 D USA Australia 1.0 0.0 0
8 8 2015-06-08 C Japan Switzerland 1.0 0.0 0
9 9 2015-06-09 F France England 1.0 0.0 0
12 12 2015-06-09 E Brazil South Korea 1.0 0.0 0
14 14 2015-06-11 A China Netherlands 1.0 0.0 0
15 15 2015-06-11 B Ivory Coast Thailand 0.0 1.0 0
17 17 2015-06-12 D Australia Nigeria 1.0 0.0 0
18 18 2015-06-12 C Switzerland Ecuador 1.0 0.0 0
20 20 2015-06-12 C Japan Cameroon 1.0 0.0 0
21 21 2015-06-13 F France Colombia 0.0 1.0 0
22 22 2015-06-13 E Brazil Spain 1.0 0.0 0
23 23 2015-06-13 F England Mexico 1.0 0.0 0
25 25 2015-06-15 B Thailand Germany 0.0 1.0 0
26 26 2015-06-15 B Ivory Coast Norway 0.0 1.0 0
29 29 2015-06-16 C Ecuador Japan 0.0 1.0 0
30 30 2015-06-16 C Switzerland Cameroon 0.0 1.0 0
31 31 2015-06-16 D Nigeria USA 0.0 1.0 0
33 33 2015-06-17 F Mexico France 0.0 1.0 0
34 34 2015-06-17 F England Colombia 1.0 0.0 0
35 35 2015-06-17 E Costa Rica Brazil 0.0 1.0 0
36 36 2015-06-17 E South Korea Spain 1.0 0.0 0
37 37 2015-06-20   China Cameroon 1.0 0.0 0
38 38 2015-06-22   USA Colombia 0.95150586 0.04849414 0
39 39 2015-06-20   Germany Sweden 1.0 0.0 0
40 40 2015-06-21   France South Korea 1.0 0.0 0
41 41 2015-06-21   Brazil Australia 0.0 1.0 0
42 42 2015-06-23   Japan Netherlands 0.73147081 0.26852919 0
43 43 2015-06-22   Norway England 0.49263848 0.50736152 0
44 44 2015-06-21   Canada Switzerland 1.0 0.0 0
45 45 2015-06-26   Germany France 0.71679853 0.28320147 0
5 5 2015-06-08 D Sweden Nigeria 0.0 0.0 1
10 10 2015-06-09 E Spain Costa Rica 0.0 0.0 1
11 11 2015-06-09 F Colombia Mexico 0.0 0.0 1
13 13 2015-06-11 B Germany Norway 0.0 0.0 1
16 16 2015-06-11 A Canada New Zealand 0.0 0.0 1
19 19 2015-06-12 D USA Sweden 0.0 0.0 1
24 24 2015-06-13 E South Korea Costa Rica 0.0 0.0 1
27 27 2015-06-15 A Netherlands Canada 0.0 0.0 1
28 28 2015-06-15 A China New Zealand 0.0 0.0 1
32 32 2015-06-16 D Australia Sweden 0.0 0.0 1

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CREATE TABLE "womens-world-cup-predictions/wwc-matches-20150621-213134" (
"date" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "team1" TEXT,
  "team2" TEXT,
  "team1_win" REAL,
  "team2_win" REAL,
  "tie" INTEGER
);