2015 Women's World Cup Tournament Predictions: wwc-forecast-20150615-213540.csv

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FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2015 World Cup, including each team's WSPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file names. All times are in EDT.

Overall forecasts

Overall forecasts are stored in files named like wwc-forecast-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv.

Header Definition
wspi Women's Soccer Power Index
wspi_offense Women's Soccer Power Index offensive rating
wspi_defense Women's Soccer Power Index defensive rating
group_first Chance of coming in first place in the group stage
group_second Chance of coming in second place in the group stage
group_third_advance Chance of coming in third place in the group stage and advancing to the knockout stage
group_third_no_advance Chance of coming in third place in the group stage but not advancing to the knockout stage
group_fourth Chance of coming in fourth place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: These probabilities are based on 20,000 simulations. A win probability of 0.0 doesn't necessarily mean that a team has a zero percent chance of winning the tournament -- it means that the team did not win the tournament in any of the 20,000 simulations.

Match probabilities

Individual match probabilities are stored in files named like wwc-matches-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv.

Header Definition
team1_win The probability that team1 will beat team2
team2_win The probability that team2 will beat team1
tie The probability the game will end in a tie

For the Women's World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of WSPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette

24 rows

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Suggested facets: group, group_first, group_second, group_third_advance, group_third_no_advance, group_fourth, sixteen, quarter, semi, final, win

Link rowid ▼ team group wspi wspi_offense wspi_defense group_first group_second group_third_advance group_third_no_advance group_fourth sixteen quarter semi final win
1 1 Germany B 95.70278239 3.75700988 0.38744414 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.8273 0.6929 0.43975 0.31675
2 2 USA D 95.2719922 3.60761198 0.41685075 0.84315 0.1368 0.02 5e-05 0.0 0.99995 0.8457 0.73695 0.4262 0.2947
3 3 Japan C 92.49655981 2.83066067 0.55509327 0.99725 0.00275 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.79315 0.39835 0.23585 0.088
4 4 Canada A 89.48663963 2.20450402 0.67258603 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.807 0.46265 0.2162 0.07175
5 5 Brazil E 92.20151735 2.74667404 0.55153209 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.5448 0.298 0.17155 0.06185
6 6 France F 91.86229527 2.75994623 0.66423541 0.27455 0.483 0.13235 0.0001 0.11 0.8899 0.56705 0.2811 0.12995 0.0518
7 7 Sweden D 91.46095872 2.68585304 0.69547583 0.07825 0.3857 0.20645 0.2682 0.0614 0.6704 0.2911 0.17615 0.08635 0.0327
8 8 Norway B 89.03152686 2.2188491 0.79456345 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.52585 0.24475 0.08945 0.0242
9 9 England F 89.22663883 2.20680924 0.73620412 0.5123 0.1697 0.30795 0.0085 0.00155 0.98995 0.5174 0.17185 0.0594 0.0226
10 10 Australia D 89.22646948 2.41648156 0.96580428 0.0746 0.4603 0.38205 0.0429 0.04015 0.91695 0.29245 0.146 0.0604 0.01745
11 11 Netherlands A 86.25827639 1.85865642 0.98939868 0.0 0.0 0.99995 5e-05 0.0 0.99995 0.2197 0.07085 0.02495 0.005
12 12 China A 85.26258762 1.49017684 0.77733582 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.5522 0.0975 0.0176 0.0046
13 13 Switzerland C 84.18604549 1.96127015 1.4907697 0.00145 0.69435 0.30375 0.00045 0.0 0.99955 0.40225 0.0811 0.01535 0.0029
14 14 Spain E 83.91743339 1.48399124 1.01584968 0.0 0.5484 0.01285 0.0785 0.36025 0.56125 0.19525 0.02735 0.00695 0.00215
15 15 Cameroon C 80.92182581 1.28530933 1.30124503 0.0013 0.3029 0.6947 0.0011 0.0 0.9989 0.2371 0.0457 0.0076 0.00105
16 16 South Korea E 83.30212814 1.67748517 1.33473725 0.0 0.3473 0.01295 0.12775 0.512 0.36025 0.1198 0.01605 0.00345 0.0009
17 17 Colombia F 80.01802084 1.04392551 1.18176089 0.21315 0.2676 0.5192 5e-05 0.0 0.99995 0.1946 0.0363 0.00545 0.00085
18 18 Nigeria D 86.03082982 1.7752345 0.9427305 0.004 0.0172 0.06585 0.0145 0.89845 0.08705 0.0177 0.00715 0.0023 0.00065
19 19 Mexico F 81.2808519 1.543547 1.52556614 0.0 0.0797 0.03185 0.0 0.88845 0.11155 0.02605 0.0077 0.0012 0.0001
20 20 Costa Rica E 74.46848601 0.98090239 1.95309483 0.0 0.1043 0.0704 0.69755 0.12775 0.1747 0.0199 0.0015 5e-05 0.0
21 21 Thailand B 68.33349734 0.89889336 2.71014832 0.0 0.0 0.2397 0.7603 0.0 0.2397 0.00365 0.0001 0.0 0.0
22 22 Ecuador C 55.74307688 0.5000465 3.86426127 0.0 0.0 5e-05 0.0 0.99995 5e-05 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
23 23 Ivory Coast B 71.8384438 1.37944188 2.76162647 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
24 24 New Zealand A 82.7981143 1.47447794 1.19842544 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

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CREATE TABLE "womens-world-cup-predictions/wwc-forecast-20150615-213540" (
"team" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "wspi" REAL,
  "wspi_offense" REAL,
  "wspi_defense" REAL,
  "group_first" REAL,
  "group_second" REAL,
  "group_third_advance" REAL,
  "group_third_no_advance" REAL,
  "group_fourth" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "final" REAL,
  "win" REAL
);