womens-world-cup-predictions/wwc-forecast-20150626-184421: 21

FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2015 World Cup, including each team's WSPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file names. All times are in EDT.

Overall forecasts

Overall forecasts are stored in files named like wwc-forecast-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv.

Header	Definition
wspi	Women's Soccer Power Index
wspi_offense	Women's Soccer Power Index offensive rating
wspi_defense	Women's Soccer Power Index defensive rating
group_first	Chance of coming in first place in the group stage
group_second	Chance of coming in second place in the group stage
group_third_advance	Chance of coming in third place in the group stage and advancing to the knockout stage
group_third_no_advance	Chance of coming in third place in the group stage but not advancing to the knockout stage
group_fourth	Chance of coming in fourth place in the group stage
sixteen	Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter	Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi	Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup	Chance of making it to the final game
win	Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: These probabilities are based on 20,000 simulations. A win probability of 0.0 doesn't necessarily mean that a team has a zero percent chance of winning the tournament -- it means that the team did not win the tournament in any of the 20,000 simulations.

Match probabilities

Individual match probabilities are stored in files named like wwc-matches-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv.

Header	Definition
team1_win	The probability that team1 will beat team2
team2_win	The probability that team2 will beat team1
tie	The probability the game will end in a tie

For the Women's World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of WSPI, click here.