2015 Women's World Cup Tournament Predictions: wwc-matches-20150602-093000.csv

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FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2015 World Cup, including each team's WSPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file names. All times are in EDT.

Overall forecasts

Overall forecasts are stored in files named like wwc-forecast-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv.

Header Definition
wspi Women's Soccer Power Index
wspi_offense Women's Soccer Power Index offensive rating
wspi_defense Women's Soccer Power Index defensive rating
group_first Chance of coming in first place in the group stage
group_second Chance of coming in second place in the group stage
group_third_advance Chance of coming in third place in the group stage and advancing to the knockout stage
group_third_no_advance Chance of coming in third place in the group stage but not advancing to the knockout stage
group_fourth Chance of coming in fourth place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: These probabilities are based on 20,000 simulations. A win probability of 0.0 doesn't necessarily mean that a team has a zero percent chance of winning the tournament -- it means that the team did not win the tournament in any of the 20,000 simulations.

Match probabilities

Individual match probabilities are stored in files named like wwc-matches-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv.

Header Definition
team1_win The probability that team1 will beat team2
team2_win The probability that team2 will beat team1
tie The probability the game will end in a tie

For the Women's World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of WSPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette

36 rows

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Suggested facets: date, group, team1, team2, date (date)

Link rowid ▼ date group team1 team2 team1_win team2_win tie
1 1 2015-06-06 A Canada China 0.6063104 0.18163693 0.21205266
2 2 2015-06-06 A New Zealand Netherlands 0.28198239 0.48122291 0.23679471
3 3 2015-06-07 B Norway Thailand 0.8520577 0.03486549 0.11307681
4 4 2015-06-07 B Germany Ivory Coast 0.93303357 0.00563435 0.06133208
5 5 2015-06-08 D Sweden Nigeria 0.58416865 0.19815679 0.21767456
6 6 2015-06-08 C Cameroon Ecuador 0.71195575 0.11006236 0.17798189
7 7 2015-06-08 D USA Australia 0.68316007 0.12837415 0.18846577
8 8 2015-06-08 C Japan Switzerland 0.68646793 0.12622442 0.18730765
9 9 2015-06-09 F France England 0.49540385 0.26973298 0.23486317
10 10 2015-06-09 E Spain Costa Rica 0.66244071 0.14210944 0.19544986
11 11 2015-06-09 F Colombia Mexico 0.30909423 0.45075205 0.24015372
12 12 2015-06-09 E Brazil South Korea 0.65239143 0.14893813 0.19867044
13 13 2015-06-11 B Germany Norway 0.70071919 0.11709944 0.18218136
14 14 2015-06-11 A China Netherlands 0.35041876 0.40654999 0.24303125
15 15 2015-06-11 B Ivory Coast Thailand 0.5394987 0.23309406 0.22740724
16 16 2015-06-11 A Canada New Zealand 0.67870936 0.1312854 0.19000524
17 17 2015-06-12 D Australia Nigeria 0.47318333 0.28902992 0.23778675
18 18 2015-06-12 C Switzerland Ecuador 0.80622804 0.05674543 0.13702653
19 19 2015-06-12 D USA Sweden 0.57582327 0.20451983 0.2196569
20 20 2015-06-12 C Japan Cameroon 0.78403885 0.0683369 0.14762425
21 21 2015-06-13 F France Colombia 0.79888832 0.06051082 0.14060085
22 22 2015-06-13 E Brazil Spain 0.6406399 0.15706108 0.20229902
23 23 2015-06-13 F England Mexico 0.6265393 0.16700293 0.20645776
24 24 2015-06-13 E South Korea Costa Rica 0.65077393 0.15004739 0.19917867
25 25 2015-06-15 B Thailand Germany 0.00405491 0.95117263 0.04477245
26 26 2015-06-15 B Ivory Coast Norway 0.10419151 0.72150623 0.17430226
27 27 2015-06-15 A Netherlands Canada 0.20329669 0.57741985 0.21928345
28 28 2015-06-15 A China New Zealand 0.45202932 0.3079357 0.24003498
29 29 2015-06-16 C Ecuador Japan 0.00473921 0.94328374 0.05197705
30 30 2015-06-16 C Switzerland Cameroon 0.4880245 0.27607843 0.23589707
31 31 2015-06-16 D Nigeria USA 0.0766254 0.76884479 0.15452981
32 32 2015-06-16 D Australia Sweden 0.27644015 0.48760602 0.23595383
33 33 2015-06-17 F Mexico France 0.09493516 0.73691591 0.16814893
34 34 2015-06-17 F England Colombia 0.6967283 0.11963233 0.18363936
35 35 2015-06-17 E Costa Rica Brazil 0.02389599 0.87785713 0.09824688
36 36 2015-06-17 E South Korea Spain 0.3665053 0.39002297 0.24347174

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CREATE TABLE "womens-world-cup-predictions/wwc-matches-20150602-093000" (
"date" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "team1" TEXT,
  "team2" TEXT,
  "team1_win" REAL,
  "team2_win" REAL,
  "tie" REAL
);