FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette

32 rows

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Link rowid ▼ country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win
1 Algeria ALG h 63.42 1.1206 1.1638 0.06 0.2056 0.037868410273811 0.007940514796466 0.001009337437611 0.000124980323982
2 Argentina ARG f 90.0 2.8542 0.4494 0.735 0.9255 0.66814194415344 0.465630841132361 0.280261821829794 0.127124612529417
3 Australia AUS b 69.45 1.6393 1.2349 0.0181 0.0822 0.011261539129572 0.003386945534424 0.000792221988222 0.000107672710319
4 Belgium BEL h 81.97 2.1378 0.7411 0.4994 0.7746 0.357997371511668 0.15073795013924 0.055361384757152 0.015142898294426
5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.31 2.3112 0.9862 0.162 0.56 0.261041510181427 0.111443516554028 0.031640956895974 0.00893297578768
6 Brazil BRA a 91.83 3.3717 0.5197 0.9502 0.993 0.804536300351416 0.697782190551531 0.566521374217148 0.453966784029812
7 Chile CHI b 86.72 2.7115 0.7043 0.3407 0.6971 0.324821810911538 0.205517130953318 0.110052410900716 0.041841444962487
8 Ivory Coast CIV c 78.9 2.2467 1.0481 0.2376 0.5451 0.251291497990899 0.069924866387952 0.025816629834415 0.006234539084229
9 Cameroon CMR a 71.33 1.48 0.9905 0.0091 0.2424 0.053314190377119 0.017975664401307 0.004641837270198 0.000620628410591
10 Colombia COL c 85.82 2.1811 0.4528 0.5183 0.7775 0.455015984486429 0.148397068540172 0.072811145955533 0.027809002305692
11 Costa Rica CRC d 74.08 1.3227 0.6992 0.097 0.2649 0.102105644555558 0.01895752019557 0.005517077785339 0.001082601203988
12 Croatia CRO a 75.72 1.7517 0.9161 0.019 0.3657 0.099807393802488 0.039903959260006 0.012421856754265 0.002106898622797
13 Ecuador ECU e 80.65 2.0297 0.7682 0.2373 0.5511 0.228179609478246 0.101094435615907 0.031987236624023 0.008615595834778
14 England ENG d 83.22 2.2077 0.689 0.3448 0.6322 0.350471079056374 0.120725107035357 0.053172272305356 0.016075183368646
15 Spain ESP b 89.13 2.6879 0.4467 0.485 0.7914 0.453216370497319 0.309212314119998 0.181659357479128 0.076211603515023
16 France FRA e 86.13 2.4857 0.6189 0.5362 0.805 0.456969496533447 0.247372966306199 0.091716557222081 0.037601257841632
17 Germany GER g 88.88 3.1935 0.7751 0.6711 0.8831 0.686615936713572 0.44955688826087 0.198270011719347 0.10745809708416
18 Ghana GHA g 77.23 1.9078 0.9277 0.0869 0.3211 0.156342091810229 0.05328392279734 0.015780618310923 0.003245908745313
19 Greece GRE c 76.78 1.3359 0.5396 0.1437 0.3857 0.154732838912462 0.039098193942446 0.012417479589859 0.00247304165774
20 Honduras HON e 69.62 1.5622 1.1623 0.0568 0.1972 0.047705956953365 0.01384040290191 0.002898440938231 0.000404888407343
21 Iran IRN f 70.63 1.2969 0.888 0.0369 0.196 0.059313018555133 0.016072212281797 0.002541865336838 0.000447453531587
22 Italy ITA d 79.54 1.987 0.8204 0.1962 0.449 0.214673058764528 0.056096487180409 0.020764380964801 0.00527160827155
23 Japan JPN c 73.5 2.1306 1.3483 0.1004 0.2917 0.103892526183539 0.022867497406085 0.006287038635699 0.001007522493134
24 South Korea KOR h 72.39 1.6901 1.0873 0.1405 0.3848 0.102354095109593 0.028762544800118 0.005421902668349 0.000940636576468
25 Mexico MEX a 76.95 1.5531 0.6888 0.0217 0.3989 0.113657745002099 0.047233510885475 0.015332369858381 0.0027341872528
26 Netherlands NED b 82.5 2.3132 0.817 0.1562 0.4293 0.139384649928523 0.073414659210361 0.031559112222876 0.009377475186881
27 Nigeria NGA f 75.23 1.6678 0.8861 0.0661 0.3185 0.117896262286419 0.0395260854691 0.007979894980822 0.001773285207323
28 Portugal POR g 81.02 2.1406 0.8163 0.1501 0.4704 0.263302951417789 0.107710455845219 0.037353944802588 0.009731838070798
29 Russia RUS h 79.02 1.6563 0.6237 0.3001 0.635 0.234130468602576 0.086132488470032 0.024054995964663 0.005746460851027
30 Switzerland SUI e 78.05 1.9845 0.9248 0.1697 0.4467 0.160752201858488 0.064484234054837 0.018855449768954 0.004275694684225
31 Uruguay URU d 83.35 2.2397 0.6997 0.362 0.6539 0.367817370050218 0.129506884395571 0.058143840887772 0.017958079661155
32 USA USA g 77.42 2.0472 1.0139 0.0919 0.3254 0.161388674560728 0.056410540574578 0.016955174092943 0.003555143492998

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140612-094254" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
);