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2014 World Cup Tournament Predictions: wc-20140612-220228.csv

FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub

32 rows sorted by sixteen

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Link rowid country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group sixteen ▼ quarter semi cup win
3 Australia AUS b 69.45 1.6393 1.2349 0.0155 0.076 0.009538369967091998 0.002844896729806 0.000663225155994 9.0596879322e-05
21 Iran IRN f 70.63 1.2969 0.888 0.0344 0.1849 0.056677011167264 0.015183289085478 0.002354750894298 0.00041852851844599993
20 Honduras HON e 69.62 1.5622 1.1623 0.0553 0.1932 0.047280840451575 0.013717176508974 0.0028795876406590005 0.000399733147769
1 Algeria ALG h 63.42 1.1206 1.1638 0.0579 0.2011 0.037567268553394 0.007756380798401 0.0009595037665940001 0.000120317254567
9 Cameroon CMR a 71.33 1.48 0.9905 0.0058 0.237 0.051476509481610006 0.017503634539335 0.004542840622618 0.000600645104348
11 Costa Rica CRC d 74.08 1.3227 0.6992 0.0979 0.2666 0.102241671910796 0.018964871940767 0.005512915515007 0.001077285339286
23 Japan JPN c 73.5 2.1306 1.3483 0.0985 0.2961 0.10475790145154198 0.023308284843907998 0.006475493477489 0.0010229734035560002
18 Ghana GHA g 77.23 1.9078 0.9277 0.0807 0.3056 0.14968324997917098 0.051101205342967006 0.015282633222232 0.0031076259822459995
27 Nigeria NGA f 75.23 1.6678 0.8861 0.0723 0.3199 0.1187908953755 0.039477263074761 0.008040182019807 0.001774741738238
32 USA USA g 77.42 2.0472 1.0139 0.0879 0.3246 0.16121187426571099 0.055994997604160004 0.017011269824257 0.0035322843170010002
12 Croatia CRO a 75.72 1.7517 0.9161 0.002 0.375 0.10207926645806 0.04097949506235 0.012765677860313 0.002138979893167
19 Greece GRE c 76.78 1.3359 0.5396 0.1391 0.3836 0.153884300377796 0.039278679432959 0.012485031568427 0.002465939499161
25 Mexico MEX a 76.95 1.5531 0.6888 0.0168 0.3896 0.11062338178946002 0.045816693072077995 0.015022406707069 0.002663005963013
24 South Korea KOR h 72.39 1.6901 1.0873 0.1497 0.3921 0.104148491685371 0.029358319299354 0.005583872149211 0.00095821036011
26 Netherlands NED b 82.5 2.3132 0.8170000000000001 0.1581 0.4286 0.138179189194129 0.072794612700786 0.031487070354293996 0.009296347291588
30 Switzerland SUI e 78.05 1.9845 0.9248 0.1689 0.4468 0.161116168971311 0.06476707686919 0.018907790164056 0.00427738354359
22 Italy ITA d 79.54 1.9869999999999999 0.8204 0.2089 0.4568 0.21671638741207896 0.057237511782856 0.021307083392161 0.00533579969606
28 Portugal POR g 81.02 2.1406 0.8163 0.1523 0.4865 0.272619582410834 0.11190215322815598 0.039074148764982 0.010115954276987
8 Ivory Coast CIV c 78.9 2.2467 1.0481 0.2385 0.5335 0.246403469198843 0.067737944444969 0.025138904365672 0.00605166358146
13 Ecuador ECU e 80.65 2.0297 0.7682 0.2496 0.5633 0.233767884864175 0.10320504423721301 0.032582328322907 0.008762963308095
5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.31 2.3112 0.9862 0.1677 0.5722 0.266818819053295 0.114646832665834 0.032489479871936004 0.00915218882601
14 England ENG d 83.22 2.2077 0.6890000000000001 0.3396 0.622 0.345972511472356 0.118536718919047 0.052358695902105 0.015803367393983
29 Russia RUS h 79.02 1.6563 0.6237 0.3058 0.6335 0.235097662849149 0.086351606705024 0.024239253585252998 0.005744998753309
31 Uruguay URU d 83.35 2.2397 0.6997 0.3536 0.6546 0.36849913646685795 0.12885706944395 0.057956627195031 0.017890918207775
7 Chile CHI b 86.72 2.7115 0.7043 0.3442 0.6992 0.327277617464467 0.20765703167847 0.11137255741354499 0.04217014986634101
4 Belgium BEL h 81.97 2.1378 0.7411 0.4866 0.7733 0.35398578032800504 0.149689095713518 0.055044104250728 0.015018981414849
10 Colombia COL c 85.82 2.1811 0.4528 0.5239 0.7868 0.46152462170974107 0.14945321301782097 0.073247066531248 0.028042879206645
15 Spain ESP b 89.13 2.6879 0.4467 0.4822 0.7962 0.452643953985591 0.30858539583648203 0.18158942591622698 0.07606751302741499
16 France FRA e 86.13 2.4857 0.6189 0.5262 0.7967 0.449936502343807 0.243437749977605 0.09028217494982302 0.036948223501711
17 Germany GER g 88.88 3.1935 0.7751 0.6791 0.8833 0.685686089928329 0.44937275171981605 0.195385935426115 0.10680392774530001
2 Argentina ARG f 90.0 2.8542 0.4494 0.7256 0.923 0.665611877773039 0.46403905716955496 0.279712954910486 0.126466524058758
6 Brazil BRA a 91.83 3.3717 0.5197 0.9754 0.9984 0.8081817116596659 0.700443946554399 0.568245008259453 0.4556793488998929

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140612-220228" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
)
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