2014 World Cup Tournament Predictions: wc-20140612-220228.csv

FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub

32 rows sorted by spi_offense

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Link rowid country country_id group spi spi_offense ▼ spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win
1 Algeria ALG h 63.42 1.1206 1.1638 0.0579 0.2011 0.037567268553394 0.007756380798401 0.0009595037665940001 0.000120317254567
21 Iran IRN f 70.63 1.2969 0.888 0.0344 0.1849 0.056677011167264 0.015183289085478 0.002354750894298 0.00041852851844599993
11 Costa Rica CRC d 74.08 1.3227 0.6992 0.0979 0.2666 0.102241671910796 0.018964871940767 0.005512915515007 0.001077285339286
19 Greece GRE c 76.78 1.3359 0.5396 0.1391 0.3836 0.153884300377796 0.039278679432959 0.012485031568427 0.002465939499161
9 Cameroon CMR a 71.33 1.48 0.9905 0.0058 0.237 0.051476509481610006 0.017503634539335 0.004542840622618 0.000600645104348
25 Mexico MEX a 76.95 1.5531 0.6888 0.0168 0.3896 0.11062338178946002 0.045816693072077995 0.015022406707069 0.002663005963013
20 Honduras HON e 69.62 1.5622 1.1623 0.0553 0.1932 0.047280840451575 0.013717176508974 0.0028795876406590005 0.000399733147769
3 Australia AUS b 69.45 1.6393 1.2349 0.0155 0.076 0.009538369967091998 0.002844896729806 0.000663225155994 9.0596879322e-05
29 Russia RUS h 79.02 1.6563 0.6237 0.3058 0.6335 0.235097662849149 0.086351606705024 0.024239253585252998 0.005744998753309
27 Nigeria NGA f 75.23 1.6678 0.8861 0.0723 0.3199 0.1187908953755 0.039477263074761 0.008040182019807 0.001774741738238
24 South Korea KOR h 72.39 1.6901 1.0873 0.1497 0.3921 0.104148491685371 0.029358319299354 0.005583872149211 0.00095821036011
12 Croatia CRO a 75.72 1.7517 0.9161 0.002 0.375 0.10207926645806 0.04097949506235 0.012765677860313 0.002138979893167
18 Ghana GHA g 77.23 1.9078 0.9277 0.0807 0.3056 0.14968324997917098 0.051101205342967006 0.015282633222232 0.0031076259822459995
30 Switzerland SUI e 78.05 1.9845 0.9248 0.1689 0.4468 0.161116168971311 0.06476707686919 0.018907790164056 0.00427738354359
22 Italy ITA d 79.54 1.9869999999999999 0.8204 0.2089 0.4568 0.21671638741207896 0.057237511782856 0.021307083392161 0.00533579969606
13 Ecuador ECU e 80.65 2.0297 0.7682 0.2496 0.5633 0.233767884864175 0.10320504423721301 0.032582328322907 0.008762963308095
32 USA USA g 77.42 2.0472 1.0139 0.0879 0.3246 0.16121187426571099 0.055994997604160004 0.017011269824257 0.0035322843170010002
23 Japan JPN c 73.5 2.1306 1.3483 0.0985 0.2961 0.10475790145154198 0.023308284843907998 0.006475493477489 0.0010229734035560002
4 Belgium BEL h 81.97 2.1378 0.7411 0.4866 0.7733 0.35398578032800504 0.149689095713518 0.055044104250728 0.015018981414849
28 Portugal POR g 81.02 2.1406 0.8163 0.1523 0.4865 0.272619582410834 0.11190215322815598 0.039074148764982 0.010115954276987
10 Colombia COL c 85.82 2.1811 0.4528 0.5239 0.7868 0.46152462170974107 0.14945321301782097 0.073247066531248 0.028042879206645
14 England ENG d 83.22 2.2077 0.6890000000000001 0.3396 0.622 0.345972511472356 0.118536718919047 0.052358695902105 0.015803367393983
31 Uruguay URU d 83.35 2.2397 0.6997 0.3536 0.6546 0.36849913646685795 0.12885706944395 0.057956627195031 0.017890918207775
8 Ivory Coast CIV c 78.9 2.2467 1.0481 0.2385 0.5335 0.246403469198843 0.067737944444969 0.025138904365672 0.00605166358146
5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.31 2.3112 0.9862 0.1677 0.5722 0.266818819053295 0.114646832665834 0.032489479871936004 0.00915218882601
26 Netherlands NED b 82.5 2.3132 0.8170000000000001 0.1581 0.4286 0.138179189194129 0.072794612700786 0.031487070354293996 0.009296347291588
16 France FRA e 86.13 2.4857 0.6189 0.5262 0.7967 0.449936502343807 0.243437749977605 0.09028217494982302 0.036948223501711
15 Spain ESP b 89.13 2.6879 0.4467 0.4822 0.7962 0.452643953985591 0.30858539583648203 0.18158942591622698 0.07606751302741499
7 Chile CHI b 86.72 2.7115 0.7043 0.3442 0.6992 0.327277617464467 0.20765703167847 0.11137255741354499 0.04217014986634101
2 Argentina ARG f 90.0 2.8542 0.4494 0.7256 0.923 0.665611877773039 0.46403905716955496 0.279712954910486 0.126466524058758
17 Germany GER g 88.88 3.1935 0.7751 0.6791 0.8833 0.685686089928329 0.44937275171981605 0.195385935426115 0.10680392774530001
6 Brazil BRA a 91.83 3.3717 0.5197 0.9754 0.9984 0.8081817116596659 0.700443946554399 0.568245008259453 0.4556793488998929

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140612-220228" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
);
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