2014 World Cup Tournament Predictions: wc-20140612-220228.csv

FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header	Definition
`spi`	Soccer Power Index
`spi_offense`	Soccer Power Index offensive rating
`spi_defense`	Soccer Power Index defensive rating
`win_group`	Change of coming in first place in the group stage
`sixteen`	Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
`quarter`	Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
`semi`	Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
`cup`	Chance of making it to the final game
`win`	Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub

32 rows sorted by win_group

descending

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Link	rowid	country	country_id	group	spi	spi_offense	spi_defense	win_group ▼	sixteen	quarter	semi	cup	win
12	12	Croatia	CRO	a	75.72	1.7517	0.9161	0.002	0.375	0.10207926645806	0.04097949506235	0.012765677860313	0.002138979893167
9	9	Cameroon	CMR	a	71.33	1.48	0.9905	0.0058	0.237	0.051476509481610006	0.017503634539335	0.004542840622618	0.000600645104348
3	3	Australia	AUS	b	69.45	1.6393	1.2349	0.0155	0.076	0.009538369967091998	0.002844896729806	0.000663225155994	9.0596879322e-05
25	25	Mexico	MEX	a	76.95	1.5531	0.6888	0.0168	0.3896	0.11062338178946002	0.045816693072077995	0.015022406707069	0.002663005963013
21	21	Iran	IRN	f	70.63	1.2969	0.888	0.0344	0.1849	0.056677011167264	0.015183289085478	0.002354750894298	0.00041852851844599993
20	20	Honduras	HON	e	69.62	1.5622	1.1623	0.0553	0.1932	0.047280840451575	0.013717176508974	0.0028795876406590005	0.000399733147769
1	1	Algeria	ALG	h	63.42	1.1206	1.1638	0.0579	0.2011	0.037567268553394	0.007756380798401	0.0009595037665940001	0.000120317254567
27	27	Nigeria	NGA	f	75.23	1.6678	0.8861	0.0723	0.3199	0.1187908953755	0.039477263074761	0.008040182019807	0.001774741738238
18	18	Ghana	GHA	g	77.23	1.9078	0.9277	0.0807	0.3056	0.14968324997917098	0.051101205342967006	0.015282633222232	0.0031076259822459995
32	32	USA	USA	g	77.42	2.0472	1.0139	0.0879	0.3246	0.16121187426571099	0.055994997604160004	0.017011269824257	0.0035322843170010002
11	11	Costa Rica	CRC	d	74.08	1.3227	0.6992	0.0979	0.2666	0.102241671910796	0.018964871940767	0.005512915515007	0.001077285339286
23	23	Japan	JPN	c	73.5	2.1306	1.3483	0.0985	0.2961	0.10475790145154198	0.023308284843907998	0.006475493477489	0.0010229734035560002
19	19	Greece	GRE	c	76.78	1.3359	0.5396	0.1391	0.3836	0.153884300377796	0.039278679432959	0.012485031568427	0.002465939499161
24	24	South Korea	KOR	h	72.39	1.6901	1.0873	0.1497	0.3921	0.104148491685371	0.029358319299354	0.005583872149211	0.00095821036011
28	28	Portugal	POR	g	81.02	2.1406	0.8163	0.1523	0.4865	0.272619582410834	0.11190215322815598	0.039074148764982	0.010115954276987
26	26	Netherlands	NED	b	82.5	2.3132	0.8170000000000001	0.1581	0.4286	0.138179189194129	0.072794612700786	0.031487070354293996	0.009296347291588
5	5	Bosnia and Herzegovina	BIH	f	80.31	2.3112	0.9862	0.1677	0.5722	0.266818819053295	0.114646832665834	0.032489479871936004	0.00915218882601
30	30	Switzerland	SUI	e	78.05	1.9845	0.9248	0.1689	0.4468	0.161116168971311	0.06476707686919	0.018907790164056	0.00427738354359
22	22	Italy	ITA	d	79.54	1.9869999999999999	0.8204	0.2089	0.4568	0.21671638741207896	0.057237511782856	0.021307083392161	0.00533579969606
8	8	Ivory Coast	CIV	c	78.9	2.2467	1.0481	0.2385	0.5335	0.246403469198843	0.067737944444969	0.025138904365672	0.00605166358146
13	13	Ecuador	ECU	e	80.65	2.0297	0.7682	0.2496	0.5633	0.233767884864175	0.10320504423721301	0.032582328322907	0.008762963308095
29	29	Russia	RUS	h	79.02	1.6563	0.6237	0.3058	0.6335	0.235097662849149	0.086351606705024	0.024239253585252998	0.005744998753309
14	14	England	ENG	d	83.22	2.2077	0.6890000000000001	0.3396	0.622	0.345972511472356	0.118536718919047	0.052358695902105	0.015803367393983
7	7	Chile	CHI	b	86.72	2.7115	0.7043	0.3442	0.6992	0.327277617464467	0.20765703167847	0.11137255741354499	0.04217014986634101
31	31	Uruguay	URU	d	83.35	2.2397	0.6997	0.3536	0.6546	0.36849913646685795	0.12885706944395	0.057956627195031	0.017890918207775
15	15	Spain	ESP	b	89.13	2.6879	0.4467	0.4822	0.7962	0.452643953985591	0.30858539583648203	0.18158942591622698	0.07606751302741499
4	4	Belgium	BEL	h	81.97	2.1378	0.7411	0.4866	0.7733	0.35398578032800504	0.149689095713518	0.055044104250728	0.015018981414849
10	10	Colombia	COL	c	85.82	2.1811	0.4528	0.5239	0.7868	0.46152462170974107	0.14945321301782097	0.073247066531248	0.028042879206645
16	16	France	FRA	e	86.13	2.4857	0.6189	0.5262	0.7967	0.449936502343807	0.243437749977605	0.09028217494982302	0.036948223501711
17	17	Germany	GER	g	88.88	3.1935	0.7751	0.6791	0.8833	0.685686089928329	0.44937275171981605	0.195385935426115	0.10680392774530001
2	2	Argentina	ARG	f	90.0	2.8542	0.4494	0.7256	0.923	0.665611877773039	0.46403905716955496	0.279712954910486	0.126466524058758
6	6	Brazil	BRA	a	91.83	3.3717	0.5197	0.9754	0.9984	0.8081817116596659	0.700443946554399	0.568245008259453	0.4556793488998929

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140612-220228" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
);