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2014 World Cup Tournament Predictions: wc-20140613-091928.csv

FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub

32 rows sorted by quarter

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Link rowid country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter ▼ semi cup win
3 Australia AUS b 69.47 1.6380000000000001 1.232 0.0157 0.0824 0.009878999477838001 0.0030036574083349998 0.000694081991037 9.831893774200002e-05
1 Algeria ALG h 63.41 1.1202 1.1642 0.0607 0.2031 0.038006815497516 0.007915521265885 0.0010019691132929999 0.000124982295711
20 Honduras HON e 69.6 1.5609 1.162 0.0536 0.195 0.046709303988389995 0.013839877679871 0.002949449685515 0.000411207568936
9 Cameroon CMR a 71.33 1.4802 0.9908 0.0069 0.2321 0.05040559175704701 0.017092987166252 0.004429141450585999 0.0005957705613280001
21 Iran IRN f 70.63 1.2971 0.8882 0.0337 0.1897 0.056702119280224006 0.015281180545222999 0.0023670530356690003 0.000425951210324
11 Costa Rica CRC d 74.07 1.3226 0.6996 0.0955 0.2639 0.10070577530658802 0.018707815062022 0.005454432320267001 0.0010744308852519999
24 South Korea KOR h 72.41 1.69 1.0862 0.1403 0.3846 0.102606254790012 0.028936966016455005 0.0054598007640030005 0.0009568960762210002
23 Japan JPN c 73.48 2.1293 1.3485 0.1045 0.298 0.10600434088022999 0.023287592490570996 0.006413303476390001 0.001035770545741
12 Croatia CRO a 76.13 1.7849 0.9129 0.0012 0.3841 0.10632543658018699 0.043431554304457 0.013826832290040999 0.002399074706638
25 Mexico MEX a 76.93 1.5518 0.6892 0.0152 0.386 0.11025451714326599 0.045648872417609 0.014858901482706003 0.002669223301895
27 Nigeria NGA f 75.23 1.6678 0.8866 0.0683 0.3138 0.11676427049630002 0.038803700768471 0.007883931043447 0.0017573688557300001
26 Netherlands NED b 82.5 2.3138 0.8173 0.1561 0.4262 0.138397793670374 0.072842564336308 0.031500114089412994 0.009403177126105
19 Greece GRE c 76.79 1.3365 0.5396 0.1405 0.3828 0.15291283336172598 0.038915653752367003 0.01239955345119 0.00247612874704
18 Ghana GHA g 77.22 1.9080000000000001 0.9282 0.0868 0.3171 0.154560884175294 0.052554696300171 0.015663703298474 0.003239428284436
32 USA USA g 77.42 2.0473 1.0141 0.0906 0.3293 0.164157573966881 0.05697988617716201 0.017244814303172 0.003630969670475
30 Switzerland SUI e 78.09 1.9841 0.9216 0.1725 0.4526 0.164621303116832 0.066322066267332 0.01941172357215 0.0044496689725
22 Italy ITA d 79.51 1.9842 0.8202 0.1979 0.4534 0.215707326921434 0.055977841155498996 0.020849904187271 0.005311506705272
13 Ecuador ECU e 80.64 2.0295 0.7689 0.2438 0.5537 0.22858293697389104 0.10065418079012099 0.031966197427043 0.00864760104926
29 Russia RUS h 79.01 1.6554 0.6238 0.3044 0.6353 0.236682984084582 0.08668961722921402 0.024362772705781004 0.005830902438271999
8 Ivory Coast CIV c 78.89 2.2468 1.0484 0.2349 0.5417 0.24936536815056498 0.070108336357874 0.02596879396325 0.006274144857765001
28 Portugal POR g 81.0 2.1386 0.8161 0.1466 0.4775 0.266837652959381 0.109180725072894 0.038564089887372005 0.010039313001985
5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.32 2.3119 0.9862 0.1628 0.5738 0.268737244214086 0.115049975721807 0.032621711545985 0.009333019595735001
7 Chile CHI b 86.71 2.7085 0.7041 0.3455 0.6931 0.32667733161422996 0.206968657711822 0.11094712051940199 0.042258064718676006
14 England ENG d 83.2 2.2051 0.6890000000000001 0.3361 0.6242 0.346860330285986 0.11931994698386801 0.052517115618842 0.015988916650939
4 Belgium BEL h 82.0 2.1387 0.7397 0.4946 0.777 0.35712597012187197 0.150742643733861 0.055860917382368 0.015403932109251998
31 Uruguay URU d 83.33 2.2379 0.6999 0.3705 0.6585 0.371631930037757 0.131798428882976 0.059142202763107 0.018342404517356005
16 France FRA e 86.13 2.4862 0.6189 0.5301 0.7987 0.452340317066824 0.244701456702121 0.090801828815173 0.037601747647199
15 Spain ESP b 89.13 2.6874 0.4467 0.4827 0.7983 0.45271596837923206 0.30882694216069395 0.18145207218922899 0.07679131938978999
10 Colombia COL c 85.82 2.1806 0.4532 0.5201 0.7775 0.45681209505568104 0.147733906358886 0.07251173728296299 0.028025814986671
2 Argentina ARG f 90.0 2.8542 0.4498 0.7352 0.9227 0.665542504863416 0.465661123032166 0.282630242808099 0.128432884294163
17 Germany GER g 88.88 3.194 0.7751 0.676 0.8761 0.6800218644044711 0.4466863826972429 0.195122916082199 0.10725860014518902
6 Brazil BRA a 91.64 3.3933 0.5589999999999999 0.9767 0.9978 0.8053443613778051 0.6963352434504629 0.563121571454567 0.449711460146404

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140613-091928" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
)
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