2014 World Cup Tournament Predictions: wc-20140613-180212.csv

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FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette

32 rows

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Link rowid ▼ country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win
1 1 Algeria ALG h 63.41 1.1202 1.1642 0.0593 0.1973 0.037031884872746 0.007710506904984 0.000978961263767 0.000122194099713
2 2 Argentina ARG f 90.0 2.8542 0.4498 0.7386 0.9252 0.666650547145002 0.466073738132324 0.282462112003233 0.128549848420492
3 3 Australia AUS b 69.47 1.638 1.232 0.0176 0.0813 0.009963897037146 0.00298364093576 0.00067040120955 9.5466916224e-05
4 4 Belgium BEL h 82.0 2.1387 0.7397 0.4969 0.7808 0.358877412259987 0.151754927126451 0.056075873492792 0.015482578417722
5 5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.32 2.3119 0.9862 0.16 0.5643 0.264783490061127 0.113134951148298 0.032140183180042 0.00916690803052
6 6 Brazil BRA a 91.64 3.3933 0.559 0.9713 0.9985 0.806672340962142 0.69796289186845 0.564891003757246 0.45123319326575
7 7 Chile CHI b 86.71 2.7085 0.7041 0.3403 0.6906 0.320185975903838 0.202313388419788 0.108616224340022 0.041468390730423
8 8 Ivory Coast CIV c 78.89 2.2468 1.0484 0.2389 0.5426 0.250231056562453 0.069981653595991 0.025863338962373 0.006272653112445
9 9 Cameroon CMR a 71.33 1.4802 0.9908 0.0005 0.0383 0.008279153484669 0.002820473580497 0.00072650664474 9.8616032483e-05
10 10 Colombia COL c 85.82 2.1806 0.4532 0.5106 0.7761 0.456219560237007 0.149388314631632 0.07300735623557 0.028073586699386
11 11 Costa Rica CRC d 74.07 1.3226 0.6996 0.0958 0.2646 0.101040094119728 0.018743684410719 0.00549209073523 0.001083142985377
12 12 Croatia CRO a 76.13 1.7849 0.9129 0.0019 0.3722 0.103607930809959 0.042294641591688 0.013482186680815 0.002338096699502
13 13 Ecuador ECU e 80.64 2.0295 0.7689 0.2374 0.5649 0.231696762662057 0.102545136169625 0.033008883261278 0.008860670383128
14 14 England ENG d 83.2 2.2051 0.689 0.3406 0.6283 0.348098619736154 0.11932127505911 0.052548030705685 0.015998384714489
15 15 Spain ESP b 89.13 2.6874 0.4467 0.4793 0.7861 0.441816798239597 0.30165609619754 0.177005406648115 0.074872288374719
16 16 France FRA e 86.13 2.4862 0.6189 0.5281 0.7977 0.451933336780933 0.244662994075212 0.091031922602339 0.037620425376888
17 17 Germany GER g 88.88 3.194 0.7751 0.6687 0.8759 0.679070097859563 0.445952015124676 0.196640378263842 0.1074437416918
18 18 Ghana GHA g 77.22 1.908 0.9282 0.081 0.3145 0.152902094499734 0.051961807220511 0.01564306448544 0.00321889697574
19 19 Greece GRE c 76.79 1.3365 0.5396 0.1471 0.3876 0.155104058949385 0.038910451578016 0.012403492207238 0.002495869562648
20 20 Honduras HON e 69.6 1.5609 1.162 0.064 0.1971 0.048783196464964 0.014124011741484 0.002884217913809 0.000413364373853
21 21 Iran IRN f 70.63 1.2971 0.8882 0.0333 0.1933 0.058800177658687 0.015630900951724 0.002414658747095 0.000438321236178
22 22 Italy ITA d 79.51 1.9842 0.8202 0.2047 0.4639 0.220939815438024 0.057636464792536 0.021356212051544 0.005439331550374
23 23 Japan JPN c 73.48 2.1293 1.3485 0.1034 0.2937 0.104561618469806 0.022925782183698 0.006365140741344 0.001025558390595
24 24 South Korea KOR h 72.41 1.69 1.0862 0.147 0.3907 0.104659693063132 0.029329702387714 0.005587241322035 0.000973655142081
25 25 Mexico MEX a 76.93 1.5518 0.6892 0.0263 0.591 0.16869454226755 0.069743756247753 0.022581427305191 0.004054581610644
26 26 Netherlands NED b 82.5 2.3138 0.8173 0.1628 0.442 0.140779361295065 0.074321105377761 0.032047396838598 0.009594022874936
27 27 Nigeria NGA f 75.23 1.6678 0.8866 0.0681 0.3172 0.117296984641772 0.039439539676187 0.007997934268077 0.00178916837389
28 28 Portugal POR g 81.0 2.1386 0.8161 0.1573 0.4794 0.269422564973779 0.110335464902119 0.038130940734965 0.010050732205902
29 29 Russia RUS h 79.01 1.6554 0.6238 0.2968 0.6312 0.234278215297366 0.086035327840425 0.024048501541523 0.005789838268743
30 30 Switzerland SUI e 78.09 1.9841 0.9216 0.1705 0.4403 0.160055504585419 0.064458009896088 0.018781307131423 0.004327699117623
31 31 Uruguay URU d 83.33 2.2379 0.6999 0.3589 0.6432 0.36380517648741 0.128996379529066 0.057848752132032 0.017970403062199
32 32 USA USA g 77.42 2.0473 1.0141 0.093 0.3302 0.163758037173703 0.056850966702172 0.017268852593049 0.003638371303529

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140613-180212" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
);