FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette

32 rows

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Link rowid ▼ country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win
1 Algeria ALG h 63.41 1.1202 1.1642 0.0597 0.2005 0.037301180400737 0.007881988823233 0.001067161837844 0.000135769777558
2 Argentina ARG f 90.0 2.8542 0.4498 0.7388 0.9272 0.668713937819563 0.466599787953553 0.296976578940205 0.135408018458966
3 Australia AUS b 69.47 1.638 1.232 0.0173 0.0773 0.009794100277979 0.002945123565236 0.000681988148104 9.7078492072e-05
4 Belgium BEL h 82.0 2.1387 0.7397 0.5013 0.7761 0.356514302200476 0.150086978970677 0.059504485501492 0.01643719383885
5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.32 2.3119 0.9862 0.1539 0.5693 0.266627275758926 0.114355078652623 0.033461590374632 0.009779456636491
6 Brazil BRA a 91.64 3.3933 0.559 0.9685 0.998 0.811585755733071 0.702057442719976 0.567927284680543 0.460779343399806
7 Chile CHI b 86.71 2.7085 0.7041 0.3422 0.6731 0.315359631061623 0.199736702770587 0.106995629300709 0.040915440812598
8 Ivory Coast CIV c 78.89 2.2468 1.0484 0.24 0.5373 0.247963881388637 0.076106600572628 0.028097061603523 0.006847573882168
9 Cameroon CMR a 71.33 1.4802 0.9908 0.0006 0.0377 0.01029469621852 0.003517327370456 0.00091111357402 0.000124632540462
10 Colombia COL c 85.82 2.1806 0.4532 0.5182 0.7715 0.452637593504761 0.155207590661886 0.075850589140938 0.029607128833703
11 Costa Rica CRC d 74.07 1.3226 0.6996 0.0913 0.2643 0.101252924333626 0.020281131222524 0.005865184487387 0.001182347216197
12 Croatia CRO a 76.13 1.7849 0.9129 0.0031 0.3744 0.125580649810139 0.051286261121085 0.016253970480313 0.002815197879655
13 Ecuador ECU e 80.64 2.0295 0.7689 0.2371 0.5583 0.230319727240792 0.101925713651267 0.034726975687361 0.009394358242509
14 England ENG d 83.2 2.2051 0.689 0.34 0.6254 0.347224180485326 0.129937193591605 0.057344387669769 0.017515842688136
15 Spain ESP b 89.13 2.6874 0.4467 0.0665 0.3433 0.123889402237641 0.083911488164319 0.049498243025725 0.024889387616931
16 France FRA e 86.13 2.4862 0.6189 0.531 0.7965 0.450210150196081 0.243912218650236 0.093303063215531 0.039210580867639
17 Germany GER g 88.88 3.194 0.7751 0.6714 0.88 0.682957210042251 0.447954770327402 0.200658538568837 0.111818453039819
18 Ghana GHA g 77.22 1.908 0.9282 0.0886 0.3159 0.154361108625313 0.052745572285597 0.016893030669476 0.003512161757027
19 Greece GRE c 76.79 1.3365 0.5396 0.1366 0.3928 0.157587441181275 0.045820067373438 0.014714531503237 0.002905194853383
20 Honduras HON e 69.6 1.5609 1.162 0.0626 0.1996 0.049068021518944 0.014385111147681 0.003250616693303 0.000463550888683
21 Iran IRN f 70.63 1.2971 0.8882 0.0378 0.1878 0.057617114629046 0.015660930761356 0.002671341329363 0.000475524737978
22 Italy ITA d 79.51 1.9842 0.8202 0.2033 0.4555 0.217772904332536 0.063106213071711 0.023482905916919 0.005938870936489
23 Japan JPN c 73.48 2.1293 1.3485 0.1052 0.2984 0.105814787057453 0.026264897254865 0.007207944991192 0.001167811974438
24 South Korea KOR h 72.41 1.69 1.0862 0.145 0.3941 0.105703392619309 0.029660670742175 0.006032788844164 0.001065607738595
25 Mexico MEX a 76.93 1.5518 0.6892 0.0278 0.5899 0.201970033872541 0.083722993209678 0.027244123384173 0.004880469710752
26 Netherlands NED b 82.5 2.3138 0.8173 0.574 0.9063 0.401525730788537 0.212772775897599 0.091711811863596 0.025345096042774
27 Nigeria NGA f 75.23 1.6678 0.8866 0.0695 0.3157 0.116634944679017 0.038704500866015 0.008290675219124 0.001880929539846
28 Portugal POR g 81.0 2.1386 0.8161 0.151 0.4767 0.267459654420084 0.109368457694661 0.040900450843572 0.010725981755746
29 Russia RUS h 79.01 1.6554 0.6238 0.294 0.6293 0.233375662273439 0.085862403554984 0.025503577622019 0.006190299172479
30 Switzerland SUI e 78.09 1.9841 0.9216 0.1693 0.4456 0.160808828157593 0.06441825676899 0.020266456723687 0.004677910469004
31 Uruguay URU d 83.33 2.2379 0.6999 0.3654 0.6548 0.369746287716351 0.143326191432403 0.064185891324436 0.019904384141462
32 USA USA g 77.42 2.0473 1.0141 0.089 0.3274 0.1623274894184 0.056477559149541 0.018520006834803 0.003908402057784

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140613-205820" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
);