FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette

32 rows

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Link rowid ▼ country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win
1 Algeria ALG h 63.41 1.1202 1.1642 0.0555 0.1963 0.036780895058992 0.007677398475572 0.001020113499434 0.00013144804098
2 Argentina ARG f 90.0 2.8542 0.4498 0.7365 0.9229 0.664796448676131 0.463611764557936 0.294145786085739 0.134268940764052
3 Australia AUS b 69.47 1.638 1.232 0.0023 0.028 0.002338868676836 0.000696787252544 0.000154974779931 2.5537700391e-05
4 Belgium BEL h 82.0 2.1387 0.7397 0.4882 0.7733 0.352992884740186 0.14909657332427 0.058471171125942 0.016270857229176
5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.32 2.3119 0.9862 0.1618 0.5669 0.264722097149243 0.113653245827749 0.033675278504948 0.009753098661943
6 Brazil BRA a 91.64 3.3933 0.559 0.9687 0.998 0.809526071815375 0.700023476224802 0.566452864593203 0.459236251410148
7 Chile CHI b 86.71 2.7085 0.7041 0.4074 0.7718 0.370268312556236 0.234569690883614 0.125596359801523 0.047685946826532
8 Ivory Coast CIV c 78.89 2.2468 1.0484 0.2329 0.5399 0.248678673705927 0.076672869464821 0.02827593444071 0.006874377277919
9 Cameroon CMR a 71.33 1.4802 0.9908 0.0017 0.0406 0.010596202167917 0.003574240572196 0.000910329009373 0.000125624687101
10 Colombia COL c 85.82 2.1806 0.4532 0.5228 0.7838 0.45942818699435 0.157618202940715 0.077098888107021 0.030056348724907
11 Costa Rica CRC d 74.07 1.3226 0.6996 0.0925 0.2607 0.100172060873432 0.020040613788269 0.005826035625585 0.001168511637762
12 Croatia CRO a 76.13 1.7849 0.9129 0.0016 0.3714 0.121862190073512 0.049687274372621 0.015845231368468 0.002750102491457
13 Ecuador ECU e 80.64 2.0295 0.7689 0.2397 0.5682 0.233393776579798 0.103303005295502 0.034923921157472 0.009487086308756
14 England ENG d 83.2 2.2051 0.689 0.3368 0.6331 0.350877439324714 0.129574406849317 0.05702526413735 0.017499015554612
15 Spain ESP b 89.13 2.6874 0.4467 0.0533 0.3007 0.106346234828585 0.071885700849707 0.042343640888002 0.021500871731755
16 France FRA e 86.13 2.4862 0.6189 0.5369 0.8015 0.455035014880634 0.246013853155826 0.094090614642979 0.039565907075767
17 Germany GER g 88.88 3.194 0.7751 0.6706 0.8833 0.684593663677859 0.448062149938048 0.201017254250532 0.111935903665949
18 Ghana GHA g 77.22 1.908 0.9282 0.0891 0.316 0.154879091349284 0.053243113856098 0.016926270765174 0.003536351240539
19 Greece GRE c 76.79 1.3365 0.5396 0.1405 0.3794 0.152016582287465 0.042583682001699 0.013610225572134 0.002738313387584
20 Honduras HON e 69.6 1.5609 1.162 0.0528 0.1834 0.044428920362229 0.013085771557332 0.003040829875745 0.000426953154642
21 Iran IRN f 70.63 1.2971 0.8882 0.0326 0.1882 0.056197564212007 0.015170953218345 0.002458131496099 0.000454441704566
22 Italy ITA d 79.51 1.9842 0.8202 0.2015 0.4534 0.215544342462408 0.061615691954578 0.022943496243145 0.005853805835686
23 Japan JPN c 73.48 2.1293 1.3485 0.1038 0.2969 0.105639052954327 0.026131519907867 0.007247790136863 0.001167890913985
24 South Korea KOR h 72.41 1.69 1.0862 0.1476 0.3929 0.105255659759807 0.029588234023322 0.005945628396935 0.001057480534099
25 Mexico MEX a 76.93 1.5518 0.6892 0.028 0.59 0.196952471182887 0.081478640478858 0.026443476878122 0.004760306451994
26 Netherlands NED b 82.5 2.3138 0.8173 0.537 0.8995 0.382109648698712 0.201910872679034 0.087231507293444 0.024459262071407
27 Nigeria NGA f 75.23 1.6678 0.8866 0.0691 0.322 0.119321429185419 0.039854579736677 0.008519420090973 0.001937669604364
28 Portugal POR g 81.0 2.1386 0.8161 0.1537 0.4738 0.265621107795196 0.109082064634083 0.040302365931125 0.010616242495647
29 Russia RUS h 79.01 1.6554 0.6238 0.3087 0.6375 0.237601289698803 0.087242911080294 0.026150311870358 0.006295593081855
30 Switzerland SUI e 78.09 1.9841 0.9216 0.1706 0.4469 0.162104748954499 0.065299971798067 0.020219380708881 0.004703574874327
31 Uruguay URU d 83.33 2.2379 0.6999 0.3692 0.6528 0.367643661397344 0.141936329779359 0.063691008853354 0.019776043096311
32 USA USA g 77.42 2.0473 1.0141 0.0866 0.3269 0.162275407919881 0.056014409520873 0.018396493869439 0.003880241763788

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140614-000045" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
);