FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette

32 rows

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group

Link rowid ▼ country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win
1 Algeria ALG h 63.36 1.1193 1.1652 0.0604 0.1997 0.03775845197802 0.007717322358714 0.000982365063385 0.000124854059929
2 Argentina ARG f 89.99 2.8546 0.45 0.7334 0.9188 0.661272171379302 0.461333113938276 0.282227218735827 0.129629805305257
3 Australia AUS b 69.0 1.6523 1.2717 0.0019 0.0204 0.001616031668109 0.000478827084066 9.9769724871e-05 1.6264455778e-05
4 Belgium BEL h 82.01 2.1377 0.7362 0.4794 0.7687 0.350565343910013 0.149484855439893 0.055454857148792 0.015586407446236
5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.33 2.3162 0.9857 0.1627 0.5709 0.267381865597073 0.114901367723369 0.033043298280752 0.009543246529026
6 Brazil BRA a 91.63 3.391 0.5577 0.9688 0.9979 0.792065194948545 0.685013329767849 0.554284110595882 0.445116225459393
7 Chile CHI b 86.68 2.7208 0.7117 0.3028 0.7733 0.31952845908722 0.202162394668306 0.108510841526527 0.043414636930325
8 Ivory Coast CIV c 78.84 2.2473 1.0498 0.2303 0.5311 0.244511862104352 0.068445958460714 0.02525227251359 0.006185304817318
9 Cameroon CMR a 70.01 1.3521 0.968 0.0005 0.03 0.005977416618686 0.001942724125618 0.000468727385607 6.1396488764e-05
10 Colombia COL c 85.81 2.1793 0.4513 0.5216 0.7788 0.458103235385706 0.149996508798241 0.07370905499251 0.028726495151542
11 Costa Rica CRC d 74.13 1.3273 0.6977 0.0969 0.267 0.102224149854335 0.019029477676154 0.00550253444235 0.001112629210178
12 Croatia CRO a 76.25 1.8066 0.9186 0.0026 0.3833 0.104613107906749 0.043142151798305 0.013813722991892 0.002453873026696
13 Ecuador ECU e 80.79 2.0336 0.7584 0.2395 0.5626 0.233417644521594 0.103460027140864 0.033574352972365 0.009272114188084
14 England ENG d 83.16 2.2045 0.6895 0.3364 0.6237 0.344991473444188 0.11851281105374 0.052391040423101 0.016121011222902
15 Spain ESP b 86.8 2.6166 0.6364 0.0257 0.2491 0.067231021798311 0.041796189682376 0.022175766897456 0.010237142960656
16 France FRA e 86.13 2.4875 0.6181 0.53 0.7951 0.450002267674479 0.24468574913566 0.091980860612281 0.038413799887051
17 Germany GER g 88.86 3.1981 0.7783 0.6681 0.8772 0.678940391696689 0.445187112828793 0.198415672708218 0.109418813932816
18 Ghana GHA g 77.4 1.9047 0.9113 0.0879 0.3153 0.155062847611738 0.053572085348813 0.016258146926764 0.003440882139613
19 Greece GRE c 76.83 1.3401 0.5379 0.1424 0.385 0.155569131687236 0.039224435844679 0.012541456692146 0.002560327617273
20 Honduras HON e 69.73 1.5687 1.1589 0.0541 0.1954 0.047479634545905 0.01401919371092 0.00303212057088 0.000431007168141
21 Iran IRN f 70.6 1.2974 0.8887 0.0351 0.1874 0.056376083251489 0.015346756682059 0.002439820517918 0.000441373663816
22 Italy ITA d 79.39 1.9753 0.8202 0.2044 0.4537 0.216211980080694 0.05659888873986 0.020771682255807 0.005315228227069
23 Japan JPN c 73.61 2.1362 1.3426 0.1057 0.3051 0.109457572789753 0.024027676571395 0.006627436272108 0.001097137976028
24 South Korea KOR h 72.44 1.6916 1.0833 0.1403 0.3859 0.104139675216343 0.029430539685972 0.00558221645875 0.000993058407913
25 Mexico MEX a 77.55 1.5331 0.6328 0.0281 0.5888 0.168606090813721 0.071323314818327 0.02373894590208 0.004452920213515
26 Netherlands NED b 86.94 2.8146 0.7449 0.6696 0.9572 0.540362677158584 0.34850560957347 0.189935371783572 0.071050205181303
27 Nigeria NGA f 75.14 1.6667 0.8891 0.0688 0.3229 0.119720537984389 0.0395662682085 0.008076777703309 0.001826681048904
28 Portugal POR g 81.07 2.1479 0.8149 0.1561 0.4741 0.267676773594182 0.110603710764777 0.038787994199594 0.010393110290448
29 Russia RUS h 79.0 1.656 0.623 0.3199 0.6457 0.239588303755139 0.087459725335601 0.025139303171525 0.006058167492589
30 Switzerland SUI e 78.06 1.9812 0.9198 0.1764 0.4469 0.164349795045776 0.065747722526169 0.019240116046675 0.004494674196383
31 Uruguay URU d 83.23 2.2318 0.7017 0.3623 0.6556 0.368930594653722 0.129799701336911 0.058189628931834 0.018219766026646
32 USA USA g 77.47 2.0538 1.0128 0.0879 0.3334 0.166268212237887 0.057484449171599 0.017752515551624 0.00379143927841

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140614-091756" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
);