FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette

32 rows sorted by group

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group

Link rowid country country_id group ▼ spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win
6 Brazil BRA a 91.63 3.391 0.5577 0.9688 0.9979 0.792065194948545 0.685013329767849 0.554284110595882 0.445116225459393
9 Cameroon CMR a 70.01 1.3521 0.968 0.0005 0.03 0.005977416618686 0.001942724125618 0.000468727385607 6.1396488764e-05
12 Croatia CRO a 76.25 1.8066 0.9186 0.0026 0.3833 0.104613107906749 0.043142151798305 0.013813722991892 0.002453873026696
25 Mexico MEX a 77.55 1.5331 0.6328 0.0281 0.5888 0.168606090813721 0.071323314818327 0.02373894590208 0.004452920213515
3 Australia AUS b 69.0 1.6523 1.2717 0.0019 0.0204 0.001616031668109 0.000478827084066 9.9769724871e-05 1.6264455778e-05
7 Chile CHI b 86.68 2.7208 0.7117 0.3028 0.7733 0.31952845908722 0.202162394668306 0.108510841526527 0.043414636930325
15 Spain ESP b 86.8 2.6166 0.6364 0.0257 0.2491 0.067231021798311 0.041796189682376 0.022175766897456 0.010237142960656
26 Netherlands NED b 86.94 2.8146 0.7449 0.6696 0.9572 0.540362677158584 0.34850560957347 0.189935371783572 0.071050205181303
8 Ivory Coast CIV c 78.84 2.2473 1.0498 0.2303 0.5311 0.244511862104352 0.068445958460714 0.02525227251359 0.006185304817318
10 Colombia COL c 85.81 2.1793 0.4513 0.5216 0.7788 0.458103235385706 0.149996508798241 0.07370905499251 0.028726495151542
19 Greece GRE c 76.83 1.3401 0.5379 0.1424 0.385 0.155569131687236 0.039224435844679 0.012541456692146 0.002560327617273
23 Japan JPN c 73.61 2.1362 1.3426 0.1057 0.3051 0.109457572789753 0.024027676571395 0.006627436272108 0.001097137976028
11 Costa Rica CRC d 74.13 1.3273 0.6977 0.0969 0.267 0.102224149854335 0.019029477676154 0.00550253444235 0.001112629210178
14 England ENG d 83.16 2.2045 0.6895 0.3364 0.6237 0.344991473444188 0.11851281105374 0.052391040423101 0.016121011222902
22 Italy ITA d 79.39 1.9753 0.8202 0.2044 0.4537 0.216211980080694 0.05659888873986 0.020771682255807 0.005315228227069
31 Uruguay URU d 83.23 2.2318 0.7017 0.3623 0.6556 0.368930594653722 0.129799701336911 0.058189628931834 0.018219766026646
13 Ecuador ECU e 80.79 2.0336 0.7584 0.2395 0.5626 0.233417644521594 0.103460027140864 0.033574352972365 0.009272114188084
16 France FRA e 86.13 2.4875 0.6181 0.53 0.7951 0.450002267674479 0.24468574913566 0.091980860612281 0.038413799887051
20 Honduras HON e 69.73 1.5687 1.1589 0.0541 0.1954 0.047479634545905 0.01401919371092 0.00303212057088 0.000431007168141
30 Switzerland SUI e 78.06 1.9812 0.9198 0.1764 0.4469 0.164349795045776 0.065747722526169 0.019240116046675 0.004494674196383
2 Argentina ARG f 89.99 2.8546 0.45 0.7334 0.9188 0.661272171379302 0.461333113938276 0.282227218735827 0.129629805305257
5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.33 2.3162 0.9857 0.1627 0.5709 0.267381865597073 0.114901367723369 0.033043298280752 0.009543246529026
21 Iran IRN f 70.6 1.2974 0.8887 0.0351 0.1874 0.056376083251489 0.015346756682059 0.002439820517918 0.000441373663816
27 Nigeria NGA f 75.14 1.6667 0.8891 0.0688 0.3229 0.119720537984389 0.0395662682085 0.008076777703309 0.001826681048904
17 Germany GER g 88.86 3.1981 0.7783 0.6681 0.8772 0.678940391696689 0.445187112828793 0.198415672708218 0.109418813932816
18 Ghana GHA g 77.4 1.9047 0.9113 0.0879 0.3153 0.155062847611738 0.053572085348813 0.016258146926764 0.003440882139613
28 Portugal POR g 81.07 2.1479 0.8149 0.1561 0.4741 0.267676773594182 0.110603710764777 0.038787994199594 0.010393110290448
32 USA USA g 77.47 2.0538 1.0128 0.0879 0.3334 0.166268212237887 0.057484449171599 0.017752515551624 0.00379143927841
1 Algeria ALG h 63.36 1.1193 1.1652 0.0604 0.1997 0.03775845197802 0.007717322358714 0.000982365063385 0.000124854059929
4 Belgium BEL h 82.01 2.1377 0.7362 0.4794 0.7687 0.350565343910013 0.149484855439893 0.055454857148792 0.015586407446236
24 South Korea KOR h 72.44 1.6916 1.0833 0.1403 0.3859 0.104139675216343 0.029430539685972 0.00558221645875 0.000993058407913
29 Russia RUS h 79.0 1.656 0.623 0.3199 0.6457 0.239588303755139 0.087459725335601 0.025139303171525 0.006058167492589

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140614-091756" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
);