FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette

32 rows sorted by spi_defense

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group

Link rowid country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense ▼ win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win
2 Argentina ARG f 89.99 2.8546 0.45 0.7334 0.9188 0.661272171379302 0.461333113938276 0.282227218735827 0.129629805305257
10 Colombia COL c 85.81 2.1793 0.4513 0.5216 0.7788 0.458103235385706 0.149996508798241 0.07370905499251 0.028726495151542
19 Greece GRE c 76.83 1.3401 0.5379 0.1424 0.385 0.155569131687236 0.039224435844679 0.012541456692146 0.002560327617273
6 Brazil BRA a 91.63 3.391 0.5577 0.9688 0.9979 0.792065194948545 0.685013329767849 0.554284110595882 0.445116225459393
16 France FRA e 86.13 2.4875 0.6181 0.53 0.7951 0.450002267674479 0.24468574913566 0.091980860612281 0.038413799887051
29 Russia RUS h 79.0 1.656 0.623 0.3199 0.6457 0.239588303755139 0.087459725335601 0.025139303171525 0.006058167492589
25 Mexico MEX a 77.55 1.5331 0.6328 0.0281 0.5888 0.168606090813721 0.071323314818327 0.02373894590208 0.004452920213515
15 Spain ESP b 86.8 2.6166 0.6364 0.0257 0.2491 0.067231021798311 0.041796189682376 0.022175766897456 0.010237142960656
14 England ENG d 83.16 2.2045 0.6895 0.3364 0.6237 0.344991473444188 0.11851281105374 0.052391040423101 0.016121011222902
11 Costa Rica CRC d 74.13 1.3273 0.6977 0.0969 0.267 0.102224149854335 0.019029477676154 0.00550253444235 0.001112629210178
31 Uruguay URU d 83.23 2.2318 0.7017 0.3623 0.6556 0.368930594653722 0.129799701336911 0.058189628931834 0.018219766026646
7 Chile CHI b 86.68 2.7208 0.7117 0.3028 0.7733 0.31952845908722 0.202162394668306 0.108510841526527 0.043414636930325
4 Belgium BEL h 82.01 2.1377 0.7362 0.4794 0.7687 0.350565343910013 0.149484855439893 0.055454857148792 0.015586407446236
26 Netherlands NED b 86.94 2.8146 0.7449 0.6696 0.9572 0.540362677158584 0.34850560957347 0.189935371783572 0.071050205181303
13 Ecuador ECU e 80.79 2.0336 0.7584 0.2395 0.5626 0.233417644521594 0.103460027140864 0.033574352972365 0.009272114188084
17 Germany GER g 88.86 3.1981 0.7783 0.6681 0.8772 0.678940391696689 0.445187112828793 0.198415672708218 0.109418813932816
28 Portugal POR g 81.07 2.1479 0.8149 0.1561 0.4741 0.267676773594182 0.110603710764777 0.038787994199594 0.010393110290448
22 Italy ITA d 79.39 1.9753 0.8202 0.2044 0.4537 0.216211980080694 0.05659888873986 0.020771682255807 0.005315228227069
21 Iran IRN f 70.6 1.2974 0.8887 0.0351 0.1874 0.056376083251489 0.015346756682059 0.002439820517918 0.000441373663816
27 Nigeria NGA f 75.14 1.6667 0.8891 0.0688 0.3229 0.119720537984389 0.0395662682085 0.008076777703309 0.001826681048904
18 Ghana GHA g 77.4 1.9047 0.9113 0.0879 0.3153 0.155062847611738 0.053572085348813 0.016258146926764 0.003440882139613
12 Croatia CRO a 76.25 1.8066 0.9186 0.0026 0.3833 0.104613107906749 0.043142151798305 0.013813722991892 0.002453873026696
30 Switzerland SUI e 78.06 1.9812 0.9198 0.1764 0.4469 0.164349795045776 0.065747722526169 0.019240116046675 0.004494674196383
9 Cameroon CMR a 70.01 1.3521 0.968 0.0005 0.03 0.005977416618686 0.001942724125618 0.000468727385607 6.1396488764e-05
5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.33 2.3162 0.9857 0.1627 0.5709 0.267381865597073 0.114901367723369 0.033043298280752 0.009543246529026
32 USA USA g 77.47 2.0538 1.0128 0.0879 0.3334 0.166268212237887 0.057484449171599 0.017752515551624 0.00379143927841
8 Ivory Coast CIV c 78.84 2.2473 1.0498 0.2303 0.5311 0.244511862104352 0.068445958460714 0.02525227251359 0.006185304817318
24 South Korea KOR h 72.44 1.6916 1.0833 0.1403 0.3859 0.104139675216343 0.029430539685972 0.00558221645875 0.000993058407913
20 Honduras HON e 69.73 1.5687 1.1589 0.0541 0.1954 0.047479634545905 0.01401919371092 0.00303212057088 0.000431007168141
1 Algeria ALG h 63.36 1.1193 1.1652 0.0604 0.1997 0.03775845197802 0.007717322358714 0.000982365063385 0.000124854059929
3 Australia AUS b 69.0 1.6523 1.2717 0.0019 0.0204 0.001616031668109 0.000478827084066 9.9769724871e-05 1.6264455778e-05
23 Japan JPN c 73.61 2.1362 1.3426 0.1057 0.3051 0.109457572789753 0.024027676571395 0.006627436272108 0.001097137976028

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140614-091756" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
);