FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette

32 rows sorted by spi_offense

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group

Link rowid country country_id group spi spi_offense ▼ spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win
1 Algeria ALG h 63.36 1.1193 1.1652 0.0604 0.1997 0.03775845197802 0.007717322358714 0.000982365063385 0.000124854059929
21 Iran IRN f 70.6 1.2974 0.8887 0.0351 0.1874 0.056376083251489 0.015346756682059 0.002439820517918 0.000441373663816
11 Costa Rica CRC d 74.13 1.3273 0.6977 0.0969 0.267 0.102224149854335 0.019029477676154 0.00550253444235 0.001112629210178
19 Greece GRE c 76.83 1.3401 0.5379 0.1424 0.385 0.155569131687236 0.039224435844679 0.012541456692146 0.002560327617273
9 Cameroon CMR a 70.01 1.3521 0.968 0.0005 0.03 0.005977416618686 0.001942724125618 0.000468727385607 6.1396488764e-05
25 Mexico MEX a 77.55 1.5331 0.6328 0.0281 0.5888 0.168606090813721 0.071323314818327 0.02373894590208 0.004452920213515
20 Honduras HON e 69.73 1.5687 1.1589 0.0541 0.1954 0.047479634545905 0.01401919371092 0.00303212057088 0.000431007168141
3 Australia AUS b 69.0 1.6523 1.2717 0.0019 0.0204 0.001616031668109 0.000478827084066 9.9769724871e-05 1.6264455778e-05
29 Russia RUS h 79.0 1.656 0.623 0.3199 0.6457 0.239588303755139 0.087459725335601 0.025139303171525 0.006058167492589
27 Nigeria NGA f 75.14 1.6667 0.8891 0.0688 0.3229 0.119720537984389 0.0395662682085 0.008076777703309 0.001826681048904
24 South Korea KOR h 72.44 1.6916 1.0833 0.1403 0.3859 0.104139675216343 0.029430539685972 0.00558221645875 0.000993058407913
12 Croatia CRO a 76.25 1.8066 0.9186 0.0026 0.3833 0.104613107906749 0.043142151798305 0.013813722991892 0.002453873026696
18 Ghana GHA g 77.4 1.9047 0.9113 0.0879 0.3153 0.155062847611738 0.053572085348813 0.016258146926764 0.003440882139613
22 Italy ITA d 79.39 1.9753 0.8202 0.2044 0.4537 0.216211980080694 0.05659888873986 0.020771682255807 0.005315228227069
30 Switzerland SUI e 78.06 1.9812 0.9198 0.1764 0.4469 0.164349795045776 0.065747722526169 0.019240116046675 0.004494674196383
13 Ecuador ECU e 80.79 2.0336 0.7584 0.2395 0.5626 0.233417644521594 0.103460027140864 0.033574352972365 0.009272114188084
32 USA USA g 77.47 2.0538 1.0128 0.0879 0.3334 0.166268212237887 0.057484449171599 0.017752515551624 0.00379143927841
23 Japan JPN c 73.61 2.1362 1.3426 0.1057 0.3051 0.109457572789753 0.024027676571395 0.006627436272108 0.001097137976028
4 Belgium BEL h 82.01 2.1377 0.7362 0.4794 0.7687 0.350565343910013 0.149484855439893 0.055454857148792 0.015586407446236
28 Portugal POR g 81.07 2.1479 0.8149 0.1561 0.4741 0.267676773594182 0.110603710764777 0.038787994199594 0.010393110290448
10 Colombia COL c 85.81 2.1793 0.4513 0.5216 0.7788 0.458103235385706 0.149996508798241 0.07370905499251 0.028726495151542
14 England ENG d 83.16 2.2045 0.6895 0.3364 0.6237 0.344991473444188 0.11851281105374 0.052391040423101 0.016121011222902
31 Uruguay URU d 83.23 2.2318 0.7017 0.3623 0.6556 0.368930594653722 0.129799701336911 0.058189628931834 0.018219766026646
8 Ivory Coast CIV c 78.84 2.2473 1.0498 0.2303 0.5311 0.244511862104352 0.068445958460714 0.02525227251359 0.006185304817318
5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.33 2.3162 0.9857 0.1627 0.5709 0.267381865597073 0.114901367723369 0.033043298280752 0.009543246529026
16 France FRA e 86.13 2.4875 0.6181 0.53 0.7951 0.450002267674479 0.24468574913566 0.091980860612281 0.038413799887051
15 Spain ESP b 86.8 2.6166 0.6364 0.0257 0.2491 0.067231021798311 0.041796189682376 0.022175766897456 0.010237142960656
7 Chile CHI b 86.68 2.7208 0.7117 0.3028 0.7733 0.31952845908722 0.202162394668306 0.108510841526527 0.043414636930325
26 Netherlands NED b 86.94 2.8146 0.7449 0.6696 0.9572 0.540362677158584 0.34850560957347 0.189935371783572 0.071050205181303
2 Argentina ARG f 89.99 2.8546 0.45 0.7334 0.9188 0.661272171379302 0.461333113938276 0.282227218735827 0.129629805305257
17 Germany GER g 88.86 3.1981 0.7783 0.6681 0.8772 0.678940391696689 0.445187112828793 0.198415672708218 0.109418813932816
6 Brazil BRA a 91.63 3.391 0.5577 0.9688 0.9979 0.792065194948545 0.685013329767849 0.554284110595882 0.445116225459393

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140614-091756" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
);