2014 World Cup Tournament Predictions: wc-20140614-091756.csv

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FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette

32 rows sorted by win

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Link rowid country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win ▼
3 3 Australia AUS b 69.0 1.6523 1.2717 0.0019 0.0204 0.001616031668109 0.000478827084066 9.9769724871e-05 1.6264455778e-05
9 9 Cameroon CMR a 70.01 1.3521 0.968 0.0005 0.03 0.005977416618686 0.001942724125618 0.000468727385607 6.1396488764e-05
1 1 Algeria ALG h 63.36 1.1193 1.1652 0.0604 0.1997 0.03775845197802 0.007717322358714 0.000982365063385 0.000124854059929
20 20 Honduras HON e 69.73 1.5687 1.1589 0.0541 0.1954 0.047479634545905 0.01401919371092 0.00303212057088 0.000431007168141
21 21 Iran IRN f 70.6 1.2974 0.8887 0.0351 0.1874 0.056376083251489 0.015346756682059 0.002439820517918 0.000441373663816
24 24 South Korea KOR h 72.44 1.6916 1.0833 0.1403 0.3859 0.104139675216343 0.029430539685972 0.00558221645875 0.000993058407913
23 23 Japan JPN c 73.61 2.1362 1.3426 0.1057 0.3051 0.109457572789753 0.024027676571395 0.006627436272108 0.001097137976028
11 11 Costa Rica CRC d 74.13 1.3273 0.6977 0.0969 0.267 0.102224149854335 0.019029477676154 0.00550253444235 0.001112629210178
27 27 Nigeria NGA f 75.14 1.6667 0.8891 0.0688 0.3229 0.119720537984389 0.0395662682085 0.008076777703309 0.001826681048904
12 12 Croatia CRO a 76.25 1.8066 0.9186 0.0026 0.3833 0.104613107906749 0.043142151798305 0.013813722991892 0.002453873026696
19 19 Greece GRE c 76.83 1.3401 0.5379 0.1424 0.385 0.155569131687236 0.039224435844679 0.012541456692146 0.002560327617273
18 18 Ghana GHA g 77.4 1.9047 0.9113 0.0879 0.3153 0.155062847611738 0.053572085348813 0.016258146926764 0.003440882139613
32 32 USA USA g 77.47 2.0538 1.0128 0.0879 0.3334 0.166268212237887 0.057484449171599 0.017752515551624 0.00379143927841
25 25 Mexico MEX a 77.55 1.5331 0.6328 0.0281 0.5888 0.168606090813721 0.071323314818327 0.02373894590208 0.004452920213515
30 30 Switzerland SUI e 78.06 1.9812 0.9198 0.1764 0.4469 0.164349795045776 0.065747722526169 0.019240116046675 0.004494674196383
22 22 Italy ITA d 79.39 1.9753 0.8202 0.2044 0.4537 0.216211980080694 0.05659888873986 0.020771682255807 0.005315228227069
29 29 Russia RUS h 79.0 1.656 0.623 0.3199 0.6457 0.239588303755139 0.087459725335601 0.025139303171525 0.006058167492589
8 8 Ivory Coast CIV c 78.84 2.2473 1.0498 0.2303 0.5311 0.244511862104352 0.068445958460714 0.02525227251359 0.006185304817318
13 13 Ecuador ECU e 80.79 2.0336 0.7584 0.2395 0.5626 0.233417644521594 0.103460027140864 0.033574352972365 0.009272114188084
5 5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.33 2.3162 0.9857 0.1627 0.5709 0.267381865597073 0.114901367723369 0.033043298280752 0.009543246529026
15 15 Spain ESP b 86.8 2.6166 0.6364 0.0257 0.2491 0.067231021798311 0.041796189682376 0.022175766897456 0.010237142960656
28 28 Portugal POR g 81.07 2.1479 0.8149 0.1561 0.4741 0.267676773594182 0.110603710764777 0.038787994199594 0.010393110290448
4 4 Belgium BEL h 82.01 2.1377 0.7362 0.4794 0.7687 0.350565343910013 0.149484855439893 0.055454857148792 0.015586407446236
14 14 England ENG d 83.16 2.2045 0.6895 0.3364 0.6237 0.344991473444188 0.11851281105374 0.052391040423101 0.016121011222902
31 31 Uruguay URU d 83.23 2.2318 0.7017 0.3623 0.6556 0.368930594653722 0.129799701336911 0.058189628931834 0.018219766026646
10 10 Colombia COL c 85.81 2.1793 0.4513 0.5216 0.7788 0.458103235385706 0.149996508798241 0.07370905499251 0.028726495151542
16 16 France FRA e 86.13 2.4875 0.6181 0.53 0.7951 0.450002267674479 0.24468574913566 0.091980860612281 0.038413799887051
7 7 Chile CHI b 86.68 2.7208 0.7117 0.3028 0.7733 0.31952845908722 0.202162394668306 0.108510841526527 0.043414636930325
26 26 Netherlands NED b 86.94 2.8146 0.7449 0.6696 0.9572 0.540362677158584 0.34850560957347 0.189935371783572 0.071050205181303
17 17 Germany GER g 88.86 3.1981 0.7783 0.6681 0.8772 0.678940391696689 0.445187112828793 0.198415672708218 0.109418813932816
2 2 Argentina ARG f 89.99 2.8546 0.45 0.7334 0.9188 0.661272171379302 0.461333113938276 0.282227218735827 0.129629805305257
6 6 Brazil BRA a 91.63 3.391 0.5577 0.9688 0.9979 0.792065194948545 0.685013329767849 0.554284110595882 0.445116225459393

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140614-091756" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
);