FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette

32 rows

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Link rowid ▼ country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win
1 Algeria ALG h 63.36 1.1193 1.1652 0.0605 0.1977 0.037178679088309 0.007769165781341 0.001001698124871 0.000126492522173
2 Argentina ARG f 89.99 2.8546 0.45 0.7405 0.9238 0.665799734366684 0.463683184363032 0.28571422908202 0.131411937439466
3 Australia AUS b 69.0 1.6523 1.2717 0.0026 0.0204 0.001938295656431 0.00057150978909 0.000133508795974 1.9199757287e-05
4 Belgium BEL h 82.01 2.1377 0.7362 0.4959 0.7868 0.359984631754447 0.151916268233057 0.057103622910106 0.01607843621627
5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.33 2.3162 0.9857 0.1601 0.569 0.265511126906161 0.114333391019942 0.032893694314675 0.009580999920542
6 Brazil BRA a 91.63 3.391 0.5577 0.9669 0.9983 0.7921829118753 0.680168651564631 0.551062885376493 0.442483152077671
7 Chile CHI b 86.68 2.7208 0.7117 0.3083 0.7741 0.321584037630187 0.207535920342898 0.111282211045364 0.044378718269478
8 Ivory Coast CIV c 78.84 2.2473 1.0498 0.1698 0.5593 0.279051899806629 0.086649017667071 0.031764900930203 0.00742641271273
9 Cameroon CMR a 70.01 1.3521 0.968 0.0006 0.0334 0.006618585990913 0.002302485394637 0.000563660315661 7.3269336412e-05
10 Colombia COL c 85.81 2.1793 0.4513 0.738 0.9431 0.58231260865945 0.174872772541918 0.085788954086843 0.035300172800504
11 Costa Rica CRC d 74.13 1.3273 0.6977 0.3383 0.6699 0.251019045084876 0.054637708789357 0.015836016317321 0.00295866685669
12 Croatia CRO a 76.25 1.8066 0.9186 0.0023 0.3842 0.104936913050843 0.045809013279746 0.014640784891785 0.002605464747709
13 Ecuador ECU e 80.79 2.0336 0.7584 0.2378 0.5605 0.232247928934214 0.103029925573513 0.033986585050344 0.009360354997589
14 England ENG d 83.16 2.2045 0.6895 0.3586 0.616 0.334295559372747 0.119695634628552 0.052542726722639 0.015870824545658
15 Spain ESP b 86.8 2.6166 0.6364 0.0256 0.2469 0.06644891067592 0.041228068613974 0.02196293438854 0.01009390130355
16 France FRA e 86.13 2.4875 0.6181 0.5353 0.8046 0.458273892075753 0.249733494301043 0.09424009393256 0.039371019782929
17 Germany GER g 88.86 3.1981 0.7783 0.651 0.8706 0.673851050961489 0.441098501394971 0.198740156292155 0.108994161436987
18 Ghana GHA g 77.4 1.9047 0.9113 0.0862 0.3124 0.153223678576268 0.052651089453635 0.016166949299901 0.003438760898817
19 Greece GRE c 76.83 1.3401 0.5379 0.0184 0.1962 0.086276697629597 0.026637654099848 0.008548755238144 0.001589068515778
20 Honduras HON e 69.73 1.5687 1.1589 0.0595 0.1952 0.047437726684784 0.013787002728849 0.002968624078306 0.000433526557233
21 Iran IRN f 70.6 1.2974 0.8887 0.0341 0.1948 0.058059004549416 0.015697888840785 0.002476378677933 0.000451904577917
22 Italy ITA d 79.39 1.9753 0.8202 0.2188 0.4516 0.208823522543988 0.057301453134959 0.021147653041268 0.00527853452887
23 Japan JPN c 73.61 2.1362 1.3426 0.0738 0.3014 0.119641369374659 0.028640872523836 0.007905590864155 0.001263194952319
24 South Korea KOR h 72.44 1.6916 1.0833 0.1426 0.3847 0.103545885758207 0.028965812361568 0.0055810387268 0.00099457537326
25 Mexico MEX a 77.55 1.5331 0.6328 0.0302 0.5841 0.167584809197133 0.074724280516992 0.024664734018087 0.004648518798881
26 Netherlands NED b 86.94 2.8146 0.7449 0.6635 0.9586 0.538705535923194 0.357653521424069 0.194083066241771 0.072716528510091
27 Nigeria NGA f 75.14 1.6667 0.8891 0.0653 0.3124 0.114833605675026 0.038208920134372 0.007871092585489 0.001782128086426
28 Portugal POR g 81.07 2.1479 0.8149 0.164 0.4865 0.27381565282201 0.112175838252358 0.039647982017121 0.010667835068116
29 Russia RUS h 79.0 1.656 0.623 0.301 0.6308 0.234131526396559 0.086013698117073 0.024597113869453 0.005992575683172
30 Switzerland SUI e 78.06 1.9812 0.9198 0.1674 0.4397 0.157836980807963 0.063471131811888 0.018818611801503 0.004399011180537
31 Uruguay URU d 83.23 2.2318 0.7017 0.0843 0.2625 0.1385792975281 0.041571435688445 0.018625673208727 0.006384514157296
32 USA USA g 77.47 2.0538 1.0128 0.0988 0.3305 0.164268894642721 0.05746468763255 0.017638073753787 0.003826138387644

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140614-210740" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
);