FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette

32 rows

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Link rowid ▼ country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win
1 Algeria ALG h 63.36 1.1193 1.1652 0.0572 0.1973 0.036182795694676 0.00749790152987 0.000959532321087 0.000122294943409
2 Argentina ARG f 89.99 2.8546 0.45 0.7321 0.9237 0.665090906949192 0.463323551208194 0.286486293603905 0.131837518365695
3 Australia AUS b 69.0 1.6523 1.2717 0.001 0.018 0.001236346836593 0.000355128523745 7.8025034545e-05 1.3122887926e-05
4 Belgium BEL h 82.01 2.1377 0.7362 0.4929 0.7759 0.354033560390427 0.149090252478433 0.056723748871212 0.015913715671422
5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.33 2.3162 0.9857 0.1617 0.5612 0.262194077545294 0.112547522422425 0.032740861811639 0.009480250545022
6 Brazil BRA a 91.63 3.391 0.5577 0.969 0.9984 0.792232555690585 0.680413214713815 0.550254887109212 0.44231984156903
7 Chile CHI b 86.68 2.7208 0.7117 0.2996 0.7705 0.316737285625278 0.20667727846879 0.111073226836207 0.044304230105339
8 Ivory Coast CIV c 78.84 2.2473 1.0498 0.1678 0.5588 0.287045221243107 0.08960434059981 0.033021389817984 0.007677538259572
9 Cameroon CMR a 70.01 1.3521 0.968 0.0003 0.0306 0.00606156656018 0.002192717593658 0.000544419075948 7.1461875896e-05
10 Colombia COL c 85.81 2.1793 0.4513 0.7383 0.9399 0.584166605810913 0.175750415899467 0.086087548826199 0.03543911653677
11 Costa Rica CRC d 74.13 1.3273 0.6977 0.3562 0.6602 0.249055134388619 0.055702584178408 0.016216374309687 0.002978161417812
12 Croatia CRO a 76.25 1.8066 0.9186 0.0022 0.3837 0.104578277663001 0.047067452875933 0.015001566339108 0.002666011447812
13 Ecuador ECU e 80.79 2.0336 0.7584 0.2423 0.5672 0.235345395433422 0.104604266987452 0.034605368358578 0.009520973938976
14 England ENG d 83.16 2.2045 0.6895 0.1008 0.3446 0.178278117539833 0.050951176531129 0.02249631606957 0.007699393062807
15 Spain ESP b 86.8 2.6166 0.6364 0.0245 0.2519 0.066748533251472 0.041523154096335 0.022128767954314 0.010256268247842
16 France FRA e 86.13 2.4875 0.6181 0.5375 0.799 0.45405022220693 0.24501898644885 0.092535854792317 0.038830126057232
17 Germany GER g 88.86 3.1981 0.7783 0.6692 0.8809 0.682896853694041 0.446838034173722 0.200119805299765 0.110498103568861
18 Ghana GHA g 77.4 1.9047 0.9113 0.086 0.3096 0.152013736898676 0.05225590463799 0.016220750762023 0.003427175009142
19 Greece GRE c 76.83 1.3401 0.5379 0.0194 0.199 0.090745359199068 0.028106903012002 0.008964081473066 0.001667068968969
20 Honduras HON e 69.73 1.5687 1.1589 0.0555 0.1922 0.047129628766957 0.013923386460956 0.00305566278911 0.00043993410263
21 Iran IRN f 70.6 1.2974 0.8887 0.034 0.1895 0.056736791889136 0.015240121816062 0.002422657328977 0.000440912450336
22 Italy ITA d 79.39 1.9753 0.8202 0.4571 0.7358 0.349202493955984 0.10597476080825 0.039006919998134 0.009249192257318
23 Japan JPN c 73.61 2.1362 1.3426 0.0745 0.3023 0.124693865415237 0.03009951053693 0.00838754932678 0.001326636834982
24 South Korea KOR h 72.44 1.6916 1.0833 0.1485 0.3926 0.105475180819262 0.02964220812181 0.005866355003353 0.001031349627817
25 Mexico MEX a 77.55 1.5331 0.6328 0.0285 0.5873 0.168020664639254 0.076712257785961 0.025563762489382 0.004803289130585
26 Netherlands NED b 86.94 2.8146 0.7449 0.6749 0.9596 0.544384769733567 0.367442686233894 0.199736703622721 0.074570242895805
27 Nigeria NGA f 75.14 1.6667 0.8891 0.0722 0.3256 0.120093941139879 0.040038240748841 0.008402190797833 0.001885404281512
28 Portugal POR g 81.07 2.1479 0.8149 0.1546 0.4855 0.272620490831903 0.112168476532656 0.040495686041338 0.01079414342162
29 Russia RUS h 79.0 1.656 0.623 0.3014 0.6342 0.235352240666986 0.087083098465523 0.025095697773658 0.006098083489978
30 Switzerland SUI e 78.06 1.9812 0.9198 0.1647 0.4416 0.159359036069193 0.064221125767569 0.019421436954976 0.004500915386044
31 Uruguay URU d 83.23 2.2318 0.7017 0.0859 0.2594 0.136813202447282 0.041426418141894 0.018594273426855 0.006337317472114
32 USA USA g 77.47 2.0538 1.0128 0.0902 0.324 0.16142514100404 0.056506922199624 0.017692285780517 0.003800206169729

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140615-001554" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
);