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2014 World Cup Tournament Predictions: wc-20140615-001554.csv

FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub

32 rows sorted by quarter

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Link rowid country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter ▼ semi cup win
3 Australia AUS b 69.0 1.6523 1.2717 0.001 0.018 0.0012363468365929999 0.00035512852374499997 7.8025034545e-05 1.3122887925999998e-05
9 Cameroon CMR a 70.01 1.3521 0.968 0.0003 0.0306 0.00606156656018 0.002192717593658 0.0005444190759480001 7.1461875896e-05
1 Algeria ALG h 63.36 1.1193 1.1652 0.0572 0.1973 0.036182795694676 0.00749790152987 0.000959532321087 0.000122294943409
20 Honduras HON e 69.73 1.5687 1.1589 0.0555 0.1922 0.047129628766957 0.013923386460956002 0.0030556627891100002 0.00043993410263
21 Iran IRN f 70.6 1.2974 0.8887 0.034 0.1895 0.056736791889135996 0.015240121816062 0.002422657328977 0.00044091245033599995
15 Spain ESP b 86.8 2.6166 0.6364 0.0245 0.2519 0.06674853325147201 0.041523154096335 0.022128767954313996 0.010256268247842
19 Greece GRE c 76.83 1.3401 0.5379 0.0194 0.199 0.09074535919906801 0.028106903012002003 0.008964081473066 0.001667068968969
12 Croatia CRO a 76.25 1.8066 0.9186 0.0022 0.3837 0.10457827766300098 0.047067452875932995 0.015001566339107998 0.0026660114478120004
24 South Korea KOR h 72.44 1.6916 1.0833 0.1485 0.3926 0.105475180819262 0.029642208121810003 0.005866355003353001 0.0010313496278169998
27 Nigeria NGA f 75.14 1.6667 0.8891 0.0722 0.3256 0.120093941139879 0.040038240748841006 0.008402190797833001 0.001885404281512
23 Japan JPN c 73.61 2.1362 1.3426 0.0745 0.3023 0.12469386541523701 0.030099510536930003 0.00838754932678 0.001326636834982
31 Uruguay URU d 83.23 2.2318 0.7017 0.0859 0.2594 0.136813202447282 0.041426418141893996 0.018594273426855 0.006337317472114001
18 Ghana GHA g 77.4 1.9047 0.9113 0.086 0.3096 0.15201373689867598 0.05225590463799 0.016220750762023003 0.0034271750091420003
30 Switzerland SUI e 78.06 1.9812 0.9198 0.1647 0.4416 0.159359036069193 0.064221125767569 0.019421436954976 0.004500915386044001
32 USA USA g 77.47 2.0538 1.0128 0.0902 0.324 0.16142514100404 0.056506922199624006 0.017692285780516997 0.003800206169729
25 Mexico MEX a 77.55 1.5331 0.6328 0.0285 0.5873 0.168020664639254 0.076712257785961 0.025563762489382004 0.004803289130585
14 England ENG d 83.16 2.2045 0.6895 0.1008 0.3446 0.178278117539833 0.050951176531129 0.022496316069569998 0.007699393062806999
13 Ecuador ECU e 80.79 2.0336 0.7584 0.2423 0.5672 0.235345395433422 0.10460426698745201 0.034605368358578 0.009520973938976
29 Russia RUS h 79.0 1.656 0.623 0.3014 0.6342 0.23535224066698604 0.08708309846552299 0.025095697773657995 0.006098083489978001
11 Costa Rica CRC d 74.13 1.3273 0.6977 0.3562 0.6602 0.24905513438861898 0.055702584178407996 0.016216374309687 0.0029781614178120003
5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.33 2.3162 0.9857 0.1617 0.5612 0.262194077545294 0.11254752242242501 0.032740861811639 0.009480250545022
28 Portugal POR g 81.07 2.1479 0.8149 0.1546 0.4855 0.27262049083190304 0.11216847653265599 0.040495686041338 0.01079414342162
8 Ivory Coast CIV c 78.84 2.2473 1.0498 0.1678 0.5588 0.287045221243107 0.08960434059981 0.033021389817984 0.007677538259571999
7 Chile CHI b 86.68 2.7208 0.7117 0.2996 0.7705 0.31673728562527803 0.20667727846879003 0.11107322683620699 0.044304230105339
22 Italy ITA d 79.39 1.9753 0.8202 0.4571 0.7358 0.349202493955984 0.10597476080825 0.039006919998134 0.009249192257318
4 Belgium BEL h 82.01 2.1377 0.7362 0.4929 0.7759 0.35403356039042705 0.14909025247843302 0.056723748871212 0.015913715671422
16 France FRA e 86.13 2.4875 0.6181 0.5375 0.799 0.45405022220693 0.24501898644885 0.09253585479231699 0.038830126057232
26 Netherlands NED b 86.94 2.8146 0.7449 0.6749 0.9596 0.544384769733567 0.367442686233894 0.19973670362272103 0.074570242895805
10 Colombia COL c 85.81 2.1793 0.4513 0.7383 0.9399 0.584166605810913 0.175750415899467 0.08608754882619901 0.035439116536769996
2 Argentina ARG f 89.99 2.8546 0.45 0.7321 0.9237 0.665090906949192 0.46332355120819396 0.28648629360390504 0.13183751836569502
17 Germany GER g 88.86 3.1981 0.7783 0.6692 0.8809 0.6828968536940411 0.44683803417372203 0.20011980529976503 0.110498103568861
6 Brazil BRA a 91.63 3.391 0.5577 0.969 0.9984 0.7922325556905849 0.680413214713815 0.5502548871092121 0.44231984156903004

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140615-001554" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
)
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