FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette

32 rows sorted by group

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Link rowid country country_id group ▼ spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win
6 Brazil BRA a 91.63 3.3847 0.5572 0.9689 0.9985 0.790793049136349 0.66249216017071 0.535917984538475 0.429803814982014
9 Cameroon CMR a 70.05 1.3531 0.9672 0.0004 0.0332 0.006599711876393 0.002218210582229 0.000532340428649 6.9930565999e-05
12 Croatia CRO a 76.22 1.8052 0.9215 0.0023 0.3793 0.103323169876281 0.044303794964945 0.014100768085761 0.002512051495659
25 Mexico MEX a 77.77 1.5407 0.6249 0.0284 0.589 0.170455241590639 0.075206381812192 0.025327771144111 0.00483322686652
3 Australia AUS b 69.04 1.6546 1.2727 0.0017 0.0177 0.001560015567208 0.00044555729625 9.4428772429e-05 1.4426893535e-05
7 Chile CHI b 86.79 2.7203 0.7033 0.3026 0.773 0.320302708358745 0.202418176241842 0.108908494097964 0.043698544435827
15 Spain ESP b 86.78 2.6112 0.6368 0.0292 0.2508 0.06869215611347 0.040860525023039 0.021744159198933 0.00989038578156
26 Netherlands NED b 86.92 2.8119 0.747 0.6665 0.9585 0.538273947480935 0.351766532060416 0.191517311088176 0.071686046907022
8 Ivory Coast CIV c 79.17 2.2141 1.0043 0.2227 0.7952 0.401877896883583 0.128634848220148 0.047935824675925 0.01124409321598
10 Colombia COL c 87.69 2.3949 0.4158 0.758 0.9641 0.640124350537793 0.219328658405039 0.118595774707873 0.054966349323482
19 Greece GRE c 74.29 1.2891 0.6597 0.0094 0.1444 0.059057246276846 0.016811992435881 0.004857049294712 0.000790324885123
23 Japan JPN c 73.13 2.0751 1.3309 0.0099 0.0963 0.037719111035921 0.009878204043086 0.002730955747414 0.0003992761189
11 Costa Rica CRC d 77.48 1.5852 0.6767 0.4091 0.7195 0.285536903230013 0.076686460176757 0.025785679861343 0.005532621481122
14 England ENG d 82.21 2.1617 0.7381 0.0842 0.3228 0.146428377897102 0.039162217538005 0.016599455534634 0.005442438036593
22 Italy ITA d 80.14 2.036 0.8097 0.4483 0.7475 0.336809322559795 0.105950694724692 0.040365076028128 0.01003918854591
31 Uruguay URU d 80.89 2.194 0.8617 0.0584 0.2102 0.092446791578924 0.023835586304788 0.009683208319223 0.002991854636353
13 Ecuador ECU e 80.8 2.0274 0.7549 0.2373 0.5623 0.232782669664075 0.102791764052184 0.033818892565163 0.009312020053874
16 France FRA e 86.13 2.4866 0.6193 0.5281 0.7899 0.446932662591163 0.243424466062159 0.091385307268714 0.038308154906802
20 Honduras HON e 70.01 1.5756 1.1482 0.0569 0.2008 0.050004520629352 0.014818548717965 0.00325954901246 0.000472875107405
30 Switzerland SUI e 78.03 1.9791 0.9216 0.1777 0.447 0.164891215638916 0.065903768023967 0.019197644045427 0.004517527374769
2 Argentina ARG f 90.0 2.8521 0.4498 0.7335 0.9209 0.662520141639225 0.461392282637745 0.283216416982212 0.130879647357264
5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.23 2.3098 0.9905 0.1642 0.574 0.26874938737868 0.114896369849656 0.032989749806058 0.009481814336275
21 Iran IRN f 70.6 1.2971 0.8897 0.0354 0.1876 0.056641734644481 0.015335831471601 0.002428390291814 0.000439025782836
27 Nigeria NGA f 75.07 1.6598 0.8902 0.0669 0.3175 0.117477667814105 0.038906196350013 0.007872757571403 0.001779557057987
17 Germany GER g 88.87 3.1972 0.7786 0.6627 0.8742 0.676984893445781 0.444575332121496 0.199217882705092 0.109782046624266
18 Ghana GHA g 77.38 1.9044 0.9135 0.0885 0.309 0.151570853391284 0.052530446274753 0.015891783497206 0.003393687271548
28 Portugal POR g 80.99 2.1415 0.8184 0.1532 0.4728 0.264878953388448 0.108980075262669 0.038585438278017 0.01027620888747
32 USA USA g 77.76 2.0627 1.0004 0.0956 0.344 0.17253668031371 0.060609978267342 0.018850200021257 0.004143272686408
1 Algeria ALG h 63.36 1.1191 1.1659 0.0572 0.2011 0.037598887698821 0.007784490409786 0.000960294827678 0.000123459942526
4 Belgium BEL h 82.06 2.1405 0.7355 0.4959 0.7854 0.358667740662492 0.152204670838105 0.057301179712534 0.016179237405706
24 South Korea KOR h 72.42 1.6883 1.0835 0.1424 0.3826 0.10176215345634 0.02875225661197 0.005493943192592 0.000975369363159
29 Russia RUS h 78.98 1.6544 0.625 0.3045 0.6309 0.23599983764316 0.087093523048574 0.024834288698619 0.006021521670105

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140615-092237" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
);